Democrats face disadvantage after redistricting setbacks

Summary

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The NPR Politics Podcast

Episode: Democrats Face Disadvantage After Redistricting Setbacks
Date: May 11, 2026
Hosts: Miles Parks, Sam Greenglass, Ashley Lopez

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Episode Overview

This episode unpacks significant recent developments in congressional redistricting across the United States, focusing on how recent court and legislative actions—particularly in Southern states—have shifted the electoral map dramatically to the disadvantage of Democrats. The hosts delve into the political, legal, and democratic implications of these changes, with on-the-ground reporting from Louisiana and insight into broader national trends.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Dramatic Shifts in Redistricting Outlook

• Recent Redistricting Advantage Swings Toward Republicans

  • Just weeks ago, the redistricting landscape was viewed as a relative wash between parties.
  • Two pivotal events changed this:
    • A Supreme Court decision gutted Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, allowing more latitude for states to redraw maps (especially not considering race).
    • Virginia's State Supreme Court threw out a heavily Democratic map, forcing a return to one more favorable to Republicans.
  • Ashley Lopez (01:01):

    “It looked like both parties had drawn maps in a way that basically no one had any significant advantage... But I did say that there were two major wildcards here... That broke for Republicans.”

• Virginia’s Map Overturned

  • Virginia Democrats’ map (10 Democratic-favoring seats, 1 Republican) was invalidated due to legislative procedural violations.
  • Ashley Lopez (02:18):

    “What the court took issue with, it's a technicality... the process that Democrats use through the state legislature... they weren't following the rules closely enough.”

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2. The Ground in the South: Louisiana as a Case Study

• Immediate Impact on Elections & Voters

  • Primaries were delayed mid-election as new maps were drawn; tens of thousands of mail ballots became void.

  • Sam Greenglass (03:31):

    “It really feels like this redistricting war has entered a new phase. And Louisiana is one of the opening battles in this new era. Post-Calais, Calais being that Supreme Court case that gutted Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.”

  • Voters in limbo—having voted for races now postponed or states where their districts may be eliminated outright.

• Personal Impact: Voices from Louisiana

  • James Verrett, 91 and Press Robinson, 88 articulate the generational pain and loss felt after fighting for representation and seeing new restrictions erode those gains.
    • James Verrett (05:43):

      “I've been beaten with billy sticks, dogs and tear gas to fight for voting rights... now the Supreme Court and the state courts are making it back up to where it was.”

    • Press Robinson (07:00):

      “For the very first time ever today, I thought I had a voice. I thought it had been won. It's just been stripped away. But I'm optimistic enough to know that the fight has to continue, and it will.”

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3. The Ripple Effect Across the South

• Expansion to Other States
  • Tennessee: Memphis cracked into three districts, likely diminishing Black voting power.
  • South Carolina and possibly Alabama are poised for similar redistricting changes.
  • Ashley Lopez (08:47):

    “South Carolina, Tennessee are the big ones to watch right now on top of Louisiana... that because of the Supreme Court ruling, felt it was necessary to redistrict right now.”

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4. Quantifying the Political Impact: 2026 Midterms

• Democrats have a net gain of about 6 seats from favorable court or referendum outcomes (e.g., in California and Utah).

• Republicans, via aggressive redistricting, stand to gain about 14 seats—a net Republican advantage of 8, significant in light of the current thin margin in the House.

• Ashley Lopez (11:01):

  “Republican states have drawn about 14 seats that could favor their party. So right now we're looking at a net of eight seats that favor Republicans heading into the midterms, which is sizable.”

• Virginia and Texas are discussed as states where actual outcomes may differ from map projections based on turnout and how new lines play out.

• Democratic Options Moving Forward:

  • Democratic-held states could theoretically fight back with aggressive redistricting since few legal constraints remain.
  • However, political will (especially in purple states like Virginia) and the risk of backlash are real limiting factors.
  • Ashley Lopez (12:24):

    “There are very few rules. It is just a question of what rules lawmakers are willing to follow or not.”

• Congressional Democratic Mood

  • House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries calls for “maximum warfare” in response, but Democrats face structural constraints.
  • Sam Greenglass (14:08):

    “The phrase that Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has used has been maximum warfare. But... there are limits to what they can actually do, at least for this midterm cycle.”

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5. The Broader Democratic Backslide & Gerrymandering Fatigue

• Disillusionment and Disconnection with the System

  • Both hosts and the voters they interview express that the current system is failing basic standards of representation and democracy.

  • Maps prioritize partisan advantage over communities of interest or compactness.

  • Sam Greenglass (15:56):

    “You're potentially in a place where you're ending up with all these states where the maps just poorly represent the constituents that live there... they do not meet, in many cases, the standards for what makes a good congressional district... It's hard to see a way that we walk back from this.”

  • Public Opinion vs. Political Party Interests

    • Voters—across partisan lines—dislike the tactics, even when their party benefits.
    • The fastest-growing voter bloc is independents/non-affiliated; most Americans increasingly feel party maneuvering doesn’t serve them.
    • Ashley Lopez (16:37):

      “If you have a system that every voter believes is wrong... that is not good. No good can come of that. And the only people who are reaping any benefits are lawmakers, are political parties, political parties that fewer Americans every day associate with.”

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “It really cannot be overstated, the whiplash that Democrats are probably feeling right now."
  — Miles Parks (02:37)

• “This decision really felt like a gut punch.”
  — James Verrett, Louisiana voter (05:43)

• “For the very first time ever today, I thought I had a voice. I thought it had been won. It's just been stripped away. But I'm optimistic enough to know that the fight has to continue, and it will.”
  — Press Robinson, Louisiana voter (07:00)

• “The fight over the Voting Rights Act did not end when it passed in 1965...”
  — Sam Greenglass (05:59)

• “The phrase that Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has used has been maximum warfare.”
  — Sam Greenglass (14:08)

• “The only people who are reaping any benefits are lawmakers, are political parties, political parties that fewer Americans every day associate with.”
  — Ashley Lopez (16:37)

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Key Timestamps

• 00:35: Start of content; hosts introduce episode’s focus
• 01:01: Explanation of recent redistricting changes and court rulings
• 03:31: Louisiana’s redistricting turmoil mid-primary (Sam Greenglass reporting)
• 05:43: Voices of longtime civil rights activists on Voting Rights Act rollback
• 08:26: Broader implications for other Southern states
• 11:01: Breakdown of congressional seat tallies post-redistricting
• 14:08: Hakeem Jeffries and “maximum warfare”
• 15:56: Reflections on representation and gerrymandering’s impact on democracy

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Conclusion

The episode paints a sobering picture of a rapidly shifting congressional landscape, marked by aggressive redistricting battles, diminishing safeguards on fair representation, and deep voter disenchantment. While both parties are maneuvering for advantage, the system’s legitimacy—and the core democratic principle that voters pick their representatives, not the other way around—is increasingly called into question.

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Transcript

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[Miles Parks]

Hey there, it's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.

[Sam Greenglass]

I'm Sam Greenglass. I cover Congress.

[Ashley Lopez]

And I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics.

[Miles Parks]

Today on the show, the US House map suddenly looks much bleaker for Democrats. And Ashley, a couple weeks ago, we were talking about Dems basically fighting to a draw in this redistricting war that President Trump started last summer. But in the last 10 days or so, that has changed in a big way. Can you explain how?

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah, I think the last time we talked about this, you and I, I was saying it was a wash. It looked like both parties had drawn maps in a way that basically no one had any significant advantage coming into the midterms. But I did say that there were two major wildcards here. One of them was the Supreme Court was expected at some point to weigh in on a case about the Voting Rights act that would possibly create a situation where states in the south maybe had more lanes to redraw districts without having to consider race the way they used to. That broke for Republicans. And we have started to see some states in the south redistrict. We already have Tennessee has new maps. But the other thing that happened that was also a wild card that was looming over all of this was the Virginia State Supreme Court was considering Virginia's referendum. Basically, Virginia Democrats had created for themselves a map that was 10 to 1, 10 seats that favored Democrats to one favoring Republicans. And now they're going back to a map that has more parity for Republicans. I think it's six to five.

[Miles Parks]

Well, and to be clear, Virginia voters approved this new map. And then the Supreme Court came in after the fact and said, no, no, no, this is not legal, basically. Can you explain why exactly the Virginia Supreme Court ruled that way?

[Ashley Lopez]

Basically, what the court took issue with, it's a technicality. It's basically the process that Democrats use through the state legislature. There were some issues that they weren't following the rules closely enough. And so voters weighed in, they voted in support of the referendum. And then based on a technicality, the court came back later and said no,

[Miles Parks]

it's just, it really cannot be overstated, the whiplash that Democrats are probably feeling right now. And because voters felt the victory they were celebrating after this referendum and thinking that they, that these seats, or at least a few of these seats were basically gonna be theirs.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. And can you imagine how this looks to Democrats who are watching Republicans redistrict all across the country without even asking voters? It's only been Democratic led states that have. Well, I mean, a lot of it is because they're forced to. They have in their constitution these independent redistricting committees that take this work away from lawmakers. So they have just a different structure. But at least voters in these cases were asked before. Throughout most of the country, they're not even asked. So, you know. Yeah, it is a very weird situation.

[Miles Parks]

Well, and so as you mentioned, a number of Republican states are now scrambling after the Voting Rights act decision from the Supreme Court to redraw their maps in reaction to that. Sam, you were just in one of those states, Louisiana. Tell us about that and tell us what's going on there.

[Sam Greenglass]

Yeah, it really feels like this redistricting war has entered a new phase. And Louisiana is one of the opening battles in this new era. Post Calais, Calais being that Supreme Court case that gutted Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. And right now in Louisiana, there's just a lot of confusion and uncertainty. The primary season was already underway, you know, in person. Voting hadn't started yet, but tens of thousands of mail ballots were already cast when the legislature and the governor moved to delay the primaries for Congress so that the Louisiana House and Senate could redraw these maps literally in the middle of an election season. And so there's a lot of voters who are going to the polls and they're pulling ballots that have candidates and races for US Congress, but their votes will not count because those elections have been delayed. So there's confusion there. And then there's also uncertainty about what these eventual maps are going to look like. There's a lot of haggling in the legislature. Will Republicans eliminate just one majority black district? Will they eliminate both of them, as we've heard Republicans in Washington calling on these states to do in this broader race to win the redistricting war ahead of the midterms? So a lot of open questions here.

[Miles Parks]

I mean, we just mentioned a second ago the whiplash Democrats are feeling now. You're talking about voters who are actually going to the polls and sometimes finding out after the fact, after they've already voted that their Vote for some of these races is not actually going to count. What did you hear from the voters who are affected? Yeah.

[Sam Greenglass]

So what happens in Louisiana and these other Southern states will obviously have national implications in the bid to control the House next year. But I wanted to understand what it felt like to be in one of these districts where your member of Congress was potentially gonna lose their seat. Your district was gonna be dismantled, but at the heart of this sweeping landmark Supreme Court case. So I started by going to this morning coffee group that I heard about at a local community center. It's a bunch of seniors. They meet three mornings a week just after like 7am Once they finish working out. And one of the regulars that I met was a teacher named James Verrett. He's 91. And he told me that this decision really felt like a gut punch.

[James Verrett / Press Robinson (voters interviewed)]

I've been beaten with billy sticks, dogs and tear gas to fight for voting rights. We moved forward, but now the Supreme Court and the state courts are making it back up to where it was.

[Sam Greenglass]

So, you know, what I heard over and over again is that the fight over the Voting Rights act did not end when it passed in 1965. You know, there's another guy I met at the coffee group. His name is press Robinson. He's 88, and he actually used Section 2 of the Voting Rights act back in the 70s to challenge discriminatory districts for seats on the East Badden Rouge Parish School Board. And he won and was elected to one of these newly created majority black seats. So he's seen the impact of the Voting Rights act across the south over many years. And then, Miles, just a few years ago, Robinson decided to make use of Section 2 one more time. And he actually brought this case that resulted in the current map with two majority black districts, the map that ended up in front of the Supreme Court and led to this landmark decision dismantling section 2. So I asked Robinson, you know, you know, whether he felt more optimistic on the day he first registered to vote back in 1955 or today.

[James Verrett / Press Robinson (voters interviewed)]

Here I was, a young man in college just registered. Now I had a voice. For the very first time ever today, I thought I had a voice. I thought it had been one. It's just been stripped away. But I'm optimistic enough to know that the fight has to continue, and it will.

[Ashley Lopez]

I think what Sam is bringing up is really important here, and I'm really glad we're hearing those voices because this started last year with the President saying that he wanted to create more safe seats on a partisan basis. For the party, this has been largely talked about as a Republican versus Democratic effort. But because of this ruling from the Supreme Court, there is now open questions about the ability of black Americans to coalesce political power moving forward. So I think it's easy to conflate the two now, whereas, like this is a lane that has been opened up for Republicans. But there are some bigger consequences here, which is the ability of communities to have neighborhoods intact, voting blocks intact moving forward. And a good example of that is Tennessee. Right now. The city of Memphis has been cracked into three. That is a majority black city that now has a harder time creating political power for the future.

[Miles Parks]

Well, that's what I was going to say because it'd be one thing if it was just Louisiana as a result of the Supreme Court, which is what the case focused on was Louisiana's maps, if it was like one representative or two black representatives who were going to lose their seats. But it's not. I mean, it's clear that the south, many states. Can you walk us through that? What states in the South, I guess, are we watching at this point that could follow in Louisiana's footsteps with new maps?

[Ashley Lopez]

Well, I mentioned Tennessee. South Carolina is another one. Alabama had started, started talking about this, but they are in a unique position in that they need basically the Supreme Court's approval because they are locked into a court ordered map from previous redistricting effort. So I. But the problem for a lot of states is that this court case did come down pretty close to filing deadlines. So, you know, we'll see. I've said this a lot. Those things are movable. Filing deadlines are movable. Legislatures can change that. They can change their primaries as we saw in Louisiana. But for right now, it's looking like mostly South Carolina, Tennessee are the big ones to watch right now on top of Louisiana that because of the Supreme Court ruling, felt that it was necessary to redistrict right now.

[Miles Parks]

All right, we're going to take a quick break, but more in just a moment.

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[Miles Parks]

And we're back. Okay, Ashley, you've laid out the landscape for us in all these different states. We're watching. But I want to talk brass tacks for a second, just in terms of the 2026 midterms and who is going to control the House after people vote? How have things landed or I guess which party? We've talked about that. Things look bleaker for Democrats. But do we have any way to quantify that in terms of who has actually come out ahead when it comes to this redistricting battle?

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. So here's the tally so far. And these are estimates, right? Because turnout is not a thing we can accurately predict. So as of now, in California, because of a voter referendum and in Utah, because of an ongoing legal matter, Democrats have been able to net themselves about six more seats in Congress that could potentially help the party come November. Republican states have drawn about 14 seats that could favor their party. So right now we're looking at a net of eight seats that favor Republicans heading into the midterms, which is sizable if you think of the margin they have right now. What is it like three or five seats? Sam, you cover Congress, that that is what the majority looks like right now. So eight seats is not nothing, but it is the high water mark. So this is assuming that when Republicans redistricted in Texas, for example, the five seats actually become five seats that favor Republicans. I mean, so there's some estimates that it's actually more like three or four seats that favor Texas Democrats. Again, that is very much up to what actually happens when voters vote.

[Miles Parks]

Right. Same thing with Virginia, right, where we talk about like the new maps didn't pass. So these four new Democratic seats. But actually many people looking at the current Virginia map think that Democrats have a good shot of at least taking two of the seats that are currently held by Republicans. What other cards, other than hoping that Donald Trump is very unpopular and that that manifests in a blue wave, do Democrats have at this point?

[Ashley Lopez]

I think the real question is what cards are Democrats willing to play? Because right now there are very few cops on the beat because of the Supreme Court decision on how states can use race to redistrict because of the Supreme Court decision on whether partisan gerrymandering is okay. There are very few rules. And we just watched Louisiana cancel House races when mail ballots were already in the field in person. Voting hadn't started yet, but mail in voting had already started. Ballots had already been sent out. So there are very few rules. It is just a question of what rules lawmakers are willing to follow or not. So Virginia has a Democratic trifecta. They have the House and the Senate, and they have a Democratic governor. There is a lot they could do because states have a lot of power in how they run their elections. And there's some stuff being floated right now that it's not worth getting into because none of it is firmed up. But there are a couple of options that Virginia Democrats can play. But there is a political question. Virginia is not California. Virginia is very purpley. There are a lot of Republicans there. There are a lot of centrists there. And Spanberger, the governor there, Abigail Spanberger, has to ask herself, how much political leverage do I have here? How much political capital and how much of that political capital do I want to expend on this issue? I will say on the congressional side, Hakeem Jeffries, the minority leader in the House, he is suggesting that he's willing to play like, pretty aggressively in this game.

[Miles Parks]

That's what I was going to ask Sam. I mean, what are congressional Democrats talking about in the last 10 days as the winds have really shifted against them?

[Sam Greenglass]

I think the phrase that Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has used has been maximum warfare. But as Ashley's saying here, there are limits to what they can actually do, at least for this midterm cycle. So some of this might actually happen as we head to 2028, because a lot of the states where Democrats might be able to eke out more seats have gone to independent redistricting commissions or their legislatures have been hesitant to redraw the maps in this. So this might not be a project for 2026, but for 2028 and beyond.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. And something to remember is that lawmakers in these Republican states across the country redistricted only for their congressional seats. They didn't redistrict for state houses. So Democrats don't have more of a disadvantage when you look at state house or state Senate maps. So they in places that are close. Like there are a couple of states that Democrats are looking at, like Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, for example, all the swing states Democrats have been looking at possib up chambers there maybe having some trifecta power there because as we've seen in a lot of these Republican states where there is trifecta control states have a lot of power and wiggle room to make a lot of changes to the actual structures of their elections to advantage their party or not.

[Miles Parks]

It is so crazy. I do feel like it's so tempting as these changes feel like they come every single day to one state new development. Got to keep watching it, see how it affects the House map and all that stuff. But I'm curious for your guys perspective on the bigger picture here a little bit. It feels a little odd to me that a couple years ago we were talking about it was pretty widespread opinion that partisan gerrymandering wasn't great for democracy. And now everyone is just racing to figure out the best and most efficient way to do it. What are your guys thoughts on that? I guess big picture democracy right now.

[Sam Greenglass]

I mean something I've been thinking about since I went to Indiana in the fall for their redistricting battle is you're potentially in a place where you're ending up with all these states where the maps just poorly represent the constituents that live there. Even if the broader sweep of the House majority ends up exactly what it would have been pre all of this redistricting. It is pretty hard to argue that in a lot of these states people are being represented better by these new maps. Whether it's states that have been redistricted by Democrats versus Republicans, they do not meet in many cases the standards for what makes a good congressional district, you know, community of interest, compact. These maps do not look like that. And it's hard to see a way that we walk back from this.

[Ashley Lopez]

And I don't think public opinion has changed about views on gerrymandering. I think even when I went to California and talked to voters about the referendum for Democrats to engage in some partisan redistricting, people who even voted for said I don't like this. I don't think that this is how our politics should work. And it says not great things about our democracy that voters are in a position where they have to support something that they are philosophically opposed to. You know, this country is going through, I've said this a lot. This country is going through a pretty significant Democratic backslide right now. And if you have a system that every voter believes is wrong, they are philosophically opposed to, they think disenfranchises their neighbors, that is not good. No good can come of that. And the only people who are reaping any benefits. Our lawmakers, our political parties, political parties that fewer Americans every day associate with. The fastest growing part of the electorate are independent and non affiliated voters. And yet this scramble right now, it is the scramble, the fight between these two political parties over who gets to have and keep power.

[Miles Parks]

All right. Well, we can leave it there for today. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.

[Sam Greenglass]

I'm Sam Greenglass. I cover Congress.

[Ashley Lopez]

And I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics.

[Miles Parks]

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

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