Democrats’ long-shot bid to flip Alaska’s Senate seat

Summary

Podcast Summary: Democrats’ Long-Shot Bid to Flip Alaska’s Senate Seat

Podcast: The NPR Politics Podcast
Date: March 24, 2026
Host: Miles Parks (B)
Guests: Domenico Montanaro, Senior Political Editor (C), Liz Ruskin, Alaska Public Media (D)

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Overview

This episode delves into the high-stakes 2026 Senate race in Alaska, a traditionally Republican state where Democrats are mounting an ambitious campaign to unseat incumbent GOP Senator Dan Sullivan. The hosts and guest Liz Ruskin explore the state's unique political landscape, break down the candidates’ backgrounds and strategies, and examine quirks of Alaska's election system, especially ranked choice voting. The overarching theme is whether national Democratic optimism in Alaska is grounded in political reality or wishful thinking.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Dan Sullivan’s Evolution and 2026 Campaign Approach

• Sullivan’s Political Identity:

  • Began as a “George W. Bush Republican” with experience in the Bush State Department.
  • Initially skeptical of Trump, even calling for him to drop out after the Access Hollywood tape (00:58).
  • In recent years, “he's cleaving closely to Trump” (00:58, D).

• Primary Campaign Issue:

  • Strong focus on “developing Alaska’s resources.”
  • Continues to blame President Biden for federal land conservation policies that restrict development (01:36, D).

2. Mary Peltola’s Profile and Democratic Hopes

• Background:

  • Little statewide recognition before 2022 when she won a House special election (02:36, D).
  • Lost re-election in 2024 but “outran Trump by 10 percentage points” during a presidential election year (03:34, C).
  • Recruited to challenge for the Senate seat in 2026, now has considerable name ID and funding support.

• Campaign Strategy:

  • Slogan: "Fish, Family, Freedom," tapping into Alaskan populism and state pride (05:35, D).
  • Positions herself as an "Alaska first moderate," distances from national Democrats, and targets anti-incumbent sentiment.
  • “She’s not directly criticizing President Trump… really aiming for middle ground” in a Trump+13 state (05:35, D).

3. Alaska’s Unique Political Landscape

• Electorate Character:

  • “Alaska’s brand of Republican is more libertarian than religious ideology-driven” (06:56, D).
  • Residents proud of being different from the lower 48, with a survivalist, independent spirit (07:16, C).
  • “80% of Alaska’s communities are off the road system… you have to fly in or take a ferry” (08:24, D).
  • The decline of salmon runs central to local culture and economy, underlining why "fish" is a potent campaign theme.

• Democratic Prospects:

  • “In Alaska, a Democrat just does not unseat an incumbent Republican unless that Republican is under indictment…” referring to Ted Stevens’ defeat (04:54, D).

4. Trump’s Presence (or Absence) in the Race

• Sullivan:
  • Campaigns heavily against Biden, rarely mentions Trump, but “has stuck very close to President Trump’s positions” and features Trump prominently in campaign materials (09:31, D).
• Peltola:
  • Avoids anti-Trump messaging: “She’s gonna portray herself as someone who can work with anyone… why would she want to lose [Trump voters]?” (10:36, D).

5. The “Money Flood” and Voter Turnout

• Massive national investment anticipated:
  • “So, so much money. … Millions and millions of dollars. ... Not sure it’s really going to be all that effective.” (12:33, D)
• Challenge in low-turnout midterms:
  • "You get to a certain point that it's so saturated that there isn't really much more you can do" (13:04, C).
  • Get out the vote (GOTV) efforts are “a lot more complicated, more difficult” due to Alaska’s geography (13:57, C).

6. Alaska’s Election System: Open Primaries and Ranked Choice Voting

• Open Primary:

  • “All candidates appear on the same ballot, and the top four…advance to the general election” (16:07, D).

• Ranked Choice Voting:

  • “Very few instances where a come from behind candidate has been put in the number one spot…” (16:07, D).

• Lisa Murkowski Example:

  • "A Democratic candidate does not act as a spoiler... You really can't primary someone like [Murkowski] in most races" due to the open primary structure (17:14–18:10, D).
  • Murkowski’s “write-in” win in 2010 is cited as proof that “candidates matter” in Alaska (19:11, C).

• Potential Repeal:

  • Voters will decide in 2026 whether to repeal ranked choice voting. Conservatives dislike it, mainly because it’s helped keep Murkowski in office (20:33, D).
  • “If this repeal measure gains a huge following among conservatives… you wind up with this sort of two-ended thing…”—both sides of the political spectrum are motivated for different reasons (21:44, C).
  • “I think it would give a lot of…people, especially on the right, a reason to get out to the polls and vote.” (22:27, D)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On GOP Incumbent Security:

  • “It is really hard to imagine that in Alaska, a Democrat just does not unseat an incumbent Republican unless that Republican is under indictment.” – Liz Ruskin (04:54, D)

• On Fish and State Identity:

  • “Alaska’s brand of Republican is more libertarian than religious ideology-driven.” – Liz Ruskin (06:56, D)
  • “Alaskans are contractually obligated to say that if we cut Alaska in half, Texas would be the third largest state.” – Liz Ruskin (07:52, D)

• On Changing Voting Systems:

  • “Every time [Murkowski] votes against one of Trump’s priorities… people say, ‘primary her, primary her,’ and I think, ‘ah, you are not from Alaska’ because you would know you can’t really primary someone like that.” – Liz Ruskin (17:14, D)

• On Candidate Quality:

  • “Lisa Murkowski has proven that anything is possible in Alaska… she in 2010 became the first senator in 50 years to win a write-in campaign. To do that statewide is a near impossibility.” – Domenico Montanaro (19:11, C)

• On the Political Uniqueness of Alaska:

  • “That’s Alaska, baby.” – Miles Parks (23:05, B)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:58: Liz Ruskin describes Dan Sullivan’s political background and shift towards Trump.
• 03:34: Domenico Montanaro on why the Senate race could be competitive.
• 05:35: Discussion of Mary Peltola’s “Fish, Family, Freedom” campaign.
• 09:31: Analysis of how Sullivan and Peltola navigate Trump’s influence.
• 12:33: Liz on the likely flood of campaign money into the race.
• 16:07: Comprehensive rundown of Alaska’s open primary and ranked choice voting system.
• 19:11: The Murkowski write-in election and how it underscores Alaska’s candidate-driven outcomes.
• 20:33: Explanation of the forthcoming ballot measure to repeal ranked choice voting and its political implications.
• 23:05: Humorous sendoff and summation of the state’s unpredictability.

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Conclusion

The episode paints Alaska as an idiosyncratic and fiercely independent state where conventional political wisdom often fails. While the Democrats’ hopes rest on Mary Peltola’s unique profile and the state’s open, ranked-choice voting system, the structural Republican advantage remains formidable. The hosts emphasize both the outsize influence of candidate quality and Alaska’s distinct election framework, previewing a high-stakes, big-spending, and potentially unpredictable contest in November 2026.

Transcript

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[B]

Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.

[C]

And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

[B]

And Alaska Public Media's Liz Ruskin is here with us today. Hi, Liz.

[D]

Hi, Miles. It's great to be here.

[B]

I'm so excited to have you you here in studio with us ahead of this year's midterm elections. We are looking at interesting races, so you all probably guessed it. Today we are focusing on Alaska, a red state that Democrats are hoping to pull off an upset in in the Senate race this November. So let's just start there, Liz. This is a race, this Senate race that has an incumbent. What can you tell us about Republican Senator Dan Sullivan?

[D]

Well, Dan Sullivan, when he got into politics, I would say he was a George W. Bush Republican. He served in the State Department under the Bush administration and he's evolved. He was skeptical of President Trump at first, a candidate Trump. In 2016, when the Access Hollywood tape came out, he called on Trump to get out of the race. But now he's cleaving closely to Trump.

[B]

What issues, I guess are important to him or that do you think that he's going to campaign on this year?

[D]

Well, his big issue, and this isn't surprising, it's developing Alaska's resources. He recently gave a big speech to the Alaska legislature, an annual address, and he just railed against Biden. The Biden administration, President Biden's been out of office for quite a while now, but he is still running sort of against Biden and all of the measures he took to conserve federal land in

[C]

Alaska, which is very different than what most Democrats would run on in a state like Alaska where you're talking about a lot of conservation efforts, small businesses or small fisheries in this case. Right. With Mary Peltola, who's the Democrat running on Fish, Family and Freedom, is that.

[B]

Yeah, right. That is like fish is a huge part of Mary Peltola's initial campaign. But let's start with her, I guess, bigger picture. I feel like Mary Peltola is somebody we've been talking about on the podcast for years. Am I crazy?

[D]

Well, since 2022. It's interesting because before 2022, she had very little name recognition in Alaska. She ran to replace our long term Congressman don Young. When Mr. Young died and so she. In 2022, she won the special election, and also that year won the reg. The race got a lot of attention because Sarah Palin was in it.

[B]

Got it. And then she ran in 2024 again and lost that election. Is that right?

[D]

That's right.

[B]

Gotcha. And then she. Democrats basically convinced her in 2026 now to run for this Senate seat. It feels like Democrats are optimistic about their chances in Alaska, but this is a state that Donald Trump has won by more than 10 percentage points every time he's running in a presidential election. Domenico, do you see this race as actually being competitive?

[C]

You know, I do. I think the Cook Political Report classifies it as a lean Republican race. And, you know, that's notable because a place like Texas, which we spent a lot of time talking about, is at this point, a likely Republican outcome still, I mean, depending on what happens in that runoff and which candidate comes out of that, you know. But a place like Alaska is just a different kind of place. Overall, candidates really matter. The ranked choice voting system that they have in the state matters, which means that you're gonna wind up potentially with less extreme candidates overall. And this is also somebody who now has some statewide name recognition. Name ID and money are the two most important things in politics, and neither are gonna be lacking in this race because of its priority as one of those states that potentially a Democrat could knock off a Republican. You know, this is a place that's gonna see a lot of outside spending as well. But if you just think about it from a raw political standpoint, in 2024, Mary lost her race by 3 percentage points. Donald Trump, that same year, presidential year where Trump is at the top of the ballot, won by 13 points. So she already outran Trump by 10 points. And the headwinds this year are much more in Republicans face than it is in a year when Trump was able to win the presidential election.

[D]

Yeah, but it is really hard to imagine that in Alaska, a Democrat just does not unseat an incumbent Republican unless that Republican is under indictment, as we saw with previous holder of this seat, Senator Ted Stevens. It's just hard to imagine that a Democrat is going to unseat an incumbent Republican. But, yeah, we don't know.

[B]

So Domenico alluded to Peltola kind of putting fish as a big part of her initial campaign message. What else can you tell us, Liz, about her campaign strategy or how she's planning to make the case to Alaskans?

[D]

Yeah, she has this slogan, Fish family freedom. And it's a populist sentiment Alaskans love their fish, especially salmon. She's pitching herself as an Alaska first moderate. Lately her messages have been kind of anti incumbent. She's talking about self dealing politicians and yeah, she's putting some distance between herself and national Democratic figures. And she's not directly criticizing President Trump at this moment, which, you know, you can imagine why in a Trump +13 state. So she's, you know, really aiming for middle ground.

[B]

I think one of the things I've been a little unclear on is Alaska's broader political demographics because this is a state before Peltola won in 2022, a Democrat hadn't won that House seat in something like 50 years or something. Right, right.

[D]

Because the same guy held it for 50 years.

[B]

But. Yeah, but. So is Alaska becoming more purple? What is happening, I guess that make Democrats look at this as a potential pickup opportunity?

[D]

Well, I think that Alaska's brand of Republican is more libertarian than religious ideology driven. So I think that maybe it appears more purple because the Republican party has moved ever Trumpward.

[C]

Yeah. And the people who live in the state don't necessarily go with the current, if we're gonna use a fish metaphor. Right. I mean, this is a place where people kind of take pride in going against the grain of going upstream, if you will, and being different than the lower 48. And it's a very rural place. People have a strong like survivalist mentality. Alaska is just a very big state. I mean, if you were to lay it over the United States, I mean it's, you know, roughly a quarter to a third of the continental United States, depending on how you look at it on a map. I mean, it's a big, big place.

[D]

And I have to say, whenever an Alaskan runs into someone from Texas, we are contractually obligated to say that if we cut Alaska and half, Texas would be the third largest state. I'm sorry, I just have to say that.

[C]

So, you know, outside of the population centers of like Anchorage and Juneau, you know, you're gonna have a whole lot more people covering a whole lot more territory. And I think that that just, it does something different, I think, to you as a person and how you think about the world. I don't know what you think, Liz.

[D]

Well, 80% of Alaska's communities are off the road system. That means you have to fly in or in a few cases you can take a ferry. And Mary Peltola comes from one of those communities. She comes from. Bethel is on the Kuskokwim River. It's a hub community where Salmon has traditionally been the mainstay of the culture and the economy and those fish runs are in massive multi year decline. So that is where that phrase fish family freedom has a lot of resonance for people.

[B]

I'm curious about how President Trump is going to come up in this race. He's obviously not on the ballot. It's a midterm election year. But I have to imagine Peltola is probably treading lightly on being an anti Trump Democrat in a state that has gone for President Trump three different presidential years. And at the same time, I'm curious how Dan Sullivan is going to portray his relationship with the president considering the president's low approval ratings right now. How do you see President Trump playing into all of this?

[D]

Well, as I said, Sullivan gave a big speech to the Alaska legislature recently and he said President Biden name former President Biden's name a dozen times and hardly mentioned Trump at all. Maybe two or three times. But he has stuck very close to President Trump's positions on everything. Rarely votes against him. Did one vote on healthcare that was against President Trump's position, but it was a vote that we all knew was going to fail and it did fail. So it wasn't, you know, all that meaningful of a vote. But he seems to be taking great pains to not cross Trump. He has Trump's endorsement in some of his campaign literature. Trump's head was featured larger than Dan Sullivan's head.

[B]

Wow. And Peltola, I guess, do you have any sense on whether she is going to go full in on an anti Trump message or if she is going to broaden it out?

[D]

No. She's gonna portray herself as someone who can work with anyone. And there were obviously a lot of Trump voters who voted in 2024 and why would she want to lose them?

[B]

All right, let's take a quick break and more on all of this in just a moment.

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[D]

So, so much money. It's going to be just millions and millions of dollars. The population is just over 737,000 people. Only D.C. vermont and Wyoming have fewer people in them. You can just imagine the amount of money per person that is going to be spent on this race. It's just going to be so much money that I'm not sure it's really is going to be all that effective.

[C]

Well, that's the thing that we've seen in the last several election cycles. I feel like Democrats have poured so much money into so many of these races, whether it's Senate or presidential elections, and really haven't been able to kind of get over the hump in a lot of places or at least the return on investment hasn't been equivalent to the amount of money that winds up going in. It's almost like you get to a certain point that it's so saturated that there isn't really much more that you can do in these places. I mean, when every single ad during the local news is now political ads, there's only so much more that you can put on those airwaves.

[B]

Though I am curious, in a midterm election year where turnout is so much lower than in a presidential race, does the money matter more? I don't know if there's data on this, but I guess I have to imagine that things like get out the vote efforts matter even more in a sort of low turnout environment than in a higher turnout environment.

[C]

Well, and I would imagine in a state like Alaska where you have people further apart from each other, that the, the GOTV efforts are a Lot more complicated, more difficult.

[D]

Yeah. And you have to think about things like the SAVE act, which, if it were to pass, which is not likely, but it is supposed to go into effect in time for the midterms, or the recent Supreme Court case that was argued this week. If they make it harder to vote by mail, that could really have an impact in a place like Alaska.

[B]

Well, so, Liz, is Alaska exclusively vote by mail?

[D]

Oh, no, not at all. About half of voters vote in person. The others either vote by mail or they vote early in person or some other method. But this Supreme Court case is about whether you can count ballots that arrive after election Day. And Alaska allows 10 days for ballots to arrive after election day. So if the Supreme Court says that, no, you can't do that, all ballots have to be in by election Day, that is not only going to affect mailed ballots in Alaska, but there are villages in Alaska where you vote and they put the ballots in the mail and they arrive hopefully within 10 days.

[B]

Also, I guess I'm curious about President Trump's constant railing against mail voting. Do we see, like, a Republican like Dan Sullivan? Has he distanced himself from those sorts of messaging, considering how critical vote by mail is to that state?

[D]

I have not heard him address voting by mail, but, yeah, he has not alleged that there's anything wrong with it.

[B]

Got it. While we're on the topic of Alaska's election system, the other kind of quirk, I guess I could call it, is Alaska uses an open primary system in ranked choice voting. Liz, can you explain what both of those things are and how it works to vote in Alaska?

[D]

Oh, can I? I have spent years explaining this.

[B]

This is your moment.

[D]

In 2020, Alaska voters decided to change their election system. We now have an open, nonpartisan primary. That's where all the candidates appear on the same ballot, and the top four of any party or no party advance to the general election. The primary is pick one. The general election gives you a chance to rank them. And as a rule of thumb, everything that people think they love or hate about ranked choice voting in Alaska is actually about the open primary. The open primary makes a huge difference. And ranked choice voting, there are very few instances where a come from behind candidate has been put in the number one spot through ranked choices.

[B]

A lot of advocates talk about Senator Lisa Murkowski as being an example of a success of ranked choice voting or of this open primary system. Can you explain, I guess, the connection between Murkowski and this voting system every

[D]

time that she votes against one of President Trump's priorities. I see on social media people saying primary her, primary her. And I think, ah, you are not from Alaska because you would know that you can't really primary someone like that. Senator Murkowski picks up in the primary. She gets the votes of people from all over the political spectrum. And then in the general, in the last one, there was a relatively weak Democratic candidate. She had no campaign to speak of. And so a lot of Democrats voted. Murkowski number one. Some of them voted for this relatively unknown Democrat as number one and Murkowski as number two. But that doesn't matter. A Democratic candidate does not act as a spoiler in that situation.

[B]

And when you say you can't primary her in the traditional sense, I just want to make sure this is clear. So that's because there's no sort of partisan primary process where somebody can run to the right or to the left of a candidate. Right, because everyone, you just, you get a ballot that just has like a dozen or more names on it. Is that right?

[D]

Sometimes there's like a dozen names and. Or if there's only a few, it's just not likely that the person named Murkowski is not going to finish somewhere in the top four. She really can't lose a primary. In most races. People who are running serious campaigns are gonna make it into the top four. There aren't that many people who run usually. Now, our governor's race is an exception. And the original race that Mary Peltola won, there were I believe 49 candidates and she won that primary.

[C]

You know, Liz mentions Murkowski and I think that it's so important in thinking about her and thinking about the profile of Alaska itself and why Mary Peltola potentially upsetting a Republican is possible. Because I think, I think Lisa Murkowski has proven that anything is possible in Alaska. I mean she in 2010 became the first senator in 50 years to win a write in campaign. To do that statewide is a near impossibility. And she was able to pull it off. And the fact that that happened, I think a lot of people look at, yes, her name was Murkowski. People knew her, knew her dad. That name has been around for a long time in Alaska. But you know, I think that it signifies how important candidates matter in a lot of these places where in particular this year, Democrats are on their heels in trying to compete in places that were won by Donald trump. You know, seven of the 10 races that are rated either toss up lean or likely by the Cook Political Report are places where Donald Trump won in 2024. So to be able to win or be able to compete in those places, you need candidates who match the profile of the state. Very unique.

[B]

Last thing on the ranked choice voting point is this potentially could be the last election cycle that's run using this open primary and ranked choice voting system. Right, Liz?

[D]

Yeah. Alaskans will have a second chance in November to repeal ranked choice voting. This has tremendous appeal to conservatives and Republicans who really do not like ranked choice voting. And their inability to get rid of Lisa Murkowski is a prime reason. You know, she's like the poster child for why conservatives do not like ranked choice voting in Alaska. So that repeal measure will be on the ballot. And I think that among other things, it gives Republicans and conservatives a real reason to go to the polls in an election when President Trump won't be on the ballot.

[B]

This is something that was on the ballot in 2024 and it failed then. Is there any reason to believe that it would have a better chance at succeeding this time around?

[D]

Oh, it just barely failed. And the repeal campaign was beset with problems of their own making for the most part. And well funded repeal campaign certainly has a good chance of passing well.

[C]

And you know, midterm election year is really an activist election. I mean, there are lower turnout events generally. So the people who are most wanting to go out and vote and if this repeal measure gains a huge following among conservatives, which it already has some, if that drives voters to the polls, you wind up with this sort of two ended thing where, yes, you have ranked choice voting, yes, you wind up with more moderate candidates for the most part across the country, but you're going to wind up in a midterm year have sort of the most activist parts of the bases be the most fired up to want to go vote. Democrats want to flip this seat. Republicans want to be able to repeal ranked choice.

[D]

I think that on the right, low propensity voters will be especially motivated to come out to repeal ranked choice voting. They don't like it. It's newfangled. They're suspicious of the way the votes are counted. They don't like it. And I think it would give a lot of, you know, more cynical skept people, especially on the right, a reason to get out to the polls and vote.

[C]

Yeah, it's pretty unlikely that repeal wins and Peltola wins, but if that were something that were to happen, you could chalk it up as one of the weirder outcomes of 2026.

[B]

That's Alaska, baby. All right, let's leave it there. For today. Liz Ruskin, thank you so much for joining us. And good luck with all the Senate TV ads you're gonna have to watch over the next seven months.

[D]

Thank you.

[B]

I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.

[C]

And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

[B]

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

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