NPR Politics Podcast: Four Races To Watch This Election Day

Date: November 4, 2025
Hosts: Tamara Keith, Ashley Lopez, Domenico Montanaro
Main Theme:
A comprehensive discussion of the pivotal races on Election Day—Virginia and New Jersey’s gubernatorial races, California’s Proposition 50, and the closely watched New York City mayoral contest—and what their outcomes could signal for both local and national political trends.

Episode Overview

This episode highlights four key elections taking place across the country and explores their broader significance. The hosts delve into candidate profiles, campaign themes, the influence of national figures (notably Donald Trump), demographic turnout trends, and strategic implications for the upcoming midterms.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Virginia Governor’s Race

Candidates: Abigail Spanberger (Democrat) vs. Winsome Earl Sears (Republican)

• Historical Trends
  • Virginia gubernatorial elections traditionally favor the party not in the White House. (01:13)
    • Domenico Montanaro: "An off-year election usually goes to the party out of power in Virginia—11 of the last 12 times since 1977, that’s been the case."
  • With Trump in the White House (2024), Democrat Spanberger is slightly favored.
• Campaign Issues
  • Spanberger: Cost of living, affordability, energy, property taxes (02:10)
  • Sears: Culture war topics, especially transgender bathroom policies and alleged political violence (04:26)
    • Domenico Montanaro: “There’s a lot of them on culture war issues… really explicitly trying to drive out conservatives.”
• Trump’s Role
  • Trump has neither publicly endorsed Sears nor strongly campaigned for her.
    • Tamara Keith: “He endorsed Jack Cittarelli in New Jersey, but not Winsome Earl Sears... At a tele-rally, he named other Republican candidates, but not Sears.” (05:30)
    • The omission is interpreted as a lack of confidence in Sears’ victory:
      Domenico Montanaro: “That’s clearly the political weather vane here.” (06:36)
• Significance of the Margin
  • The margin by which Spanberger wins could indicate the political climate heading into the midterms. (02:05, 09:01)

2. New Jersey Governor’s Race

Candidates: Mikie Sherrill (Democrat) vs. Jack Cittarelli (Republican)

• Candidates’ Appeals
  • Sherrill: Emphasizes military background, energy and housing costs (02:10)
  • Cittarelli: Business-focused, attempts to distance himself from Trump, targets cost of living, high energy, and property taxes (02:36)
• Core Issues
  • Affordability—housing, energy, groceries, taxes (03:15)
    • Ashley Lopez: "Cost of living, affordability—it's what everyone says now… huge liability for Donald [Trump]." (02:43)
• Historical Quirks
  • NJ rarely re-elects governors from the same party consecutively beyond two terms (07:24)
  • Lower turnout typical in off-year, odd-numbered gubernatorial races (08:36)

3. California’s Proposition 50 (Redistricting)

• What’s at Stake?
  • Prop 50 would allow Democrats to temporarily override California’s independent redistricting commission and gerrymander districts, potentially to offset Republican gains in other states like Texas (11:44)
    • Ashley Lopez: "It's basically asking voters to allow [lawmakers] to partisan gerrymander … they can't just do that like Texas did."
• Context & Importance
  • Texas recently created five new favorable GOP seats, driving Democrats to seek balance.
    • Domenico Montanaro: “Being able to get, you know, five extra seats, let’s say, for example, out of California to counterbalance the five seats potentially that Republicans in Texas could get out of it, that’s huge.” (12:48)
  • Prop 50 passing could significantly shift U.S. House control (margin is only three seats).
• Democratic Base Reaction
  • Ashley Lopez: “Democratic base voters… were happy that Democrats were doing something because… a lot have been frustrated with their leaders.” (14:21)
  • A win here would be a message about Democratic willingness to fight strategically before midterms.

4. New York City Mayoral Race

Candidates: Zoran Mamdani (Democratic Socialist), Andrew Cuomo (Independent), Curtis Sliwa (Republican)

• Candidate Focuses
  • Mamdani: Affordability, economic populism, universal social programs—strong message resonance with working-class and progressive voters (15:21)
    • Criticized for past stances (e.g., defunding police, Israel) but adapted message.
    • Leads in polls (16:40)
    • Ashley Lopez: “The theory of Mamdani’s case is the Democratic Party has lost a lot of working-class voters… he believes talking about health care, childcare, transportation… will bring them back.” (16:48)
  • Cuomo: Attempts a comeback after past governorship.
  • Sliwa: Focused on crime.
• Broader Democratic Implications
  • If Mamdani’s populist approach prevails, it could redefine Democratic messaging.
  • Domenico Montanaro: “Do Democrats wind up going with a Mamdani kind of style, or do they go with an Abigail Spanberger style—which has been much more reserved…?” (17:16)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Value of Off-Year Elections:
  • Domenico Montanaro: “A test of energy... usually special elections and off year elections do tend to point to the direction that things are headed for the midterms next year. And narratives and margins matter. And I think it’s gonna be really interesting and important to watch how those things move.” (09:01)
• On Voter Turnout:
  • Ashley Lopez: “These are voters who are very politically motivated and so they're gonna turn out for things like, you know, a governorship in an odd year. Only five states hold their gubernatorial elections on odd numbered years. So most people… don't know this is happening.” (08:36)
• On Democratic and Republican Turnout Shifts:
  • Tamara Keith: “Democrats used to really rely on low propensity voters. Now their electorate is more high propensity voters. And the Trump version of the Republican party has counted on those low propensity voters.” (09:19)
• On Democratic Messaging in NYC:
  • Domenico Montanaro: “Mamdani and how he presents himself... his focus on very clear, by the way, slogany focus on affordability, right? Freeze the rent, make the buses faster, universal childcare. You can understand what those things are.” (17:16)

Segment Timestamps

• Virginia Gubernatorial Race Discussion: 01:06 – 07:09
• New Jersey Gubernatorial Race & Themes: 02:05 – 09:01
• Turnout, Voter Demographics, Broader Implications: 07:09 – 09:56
• California Proposition 50: 11:30 – 15:04
• New York City Mayoral Race: 15:08 – 18:45

Episode Takeaways

• Election day features key contests in VA, NJ, and NYC, as well as a critical redistricting measure in California.
• The cost of living, energy prices, and property taxes are unifying electoral issues across states.
• Trump is a visible but selective influence—endorsing in NJ, but keeping distance in VA.
• California’s Prop 50 could tip the balance of congressional power leading into the midterms.
• New York’s mayoral race is a test of whether Democratic economic populism can regain working-class voters and shape the party’s direction.
• Margins and turnout in these elections may foreshadow the energy and strategy of both parties in the 2026 midterms.