Full Control: Republicans To Control Congress & White House

Summary

Summary of NPR Politics Podcast Episode: "Full Control: Republicans To Control Congress & White House"

Recorded on Thursday, November 14, 2024, at 10:37 am.

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1. Republicans Secure Federal Dominance

The episode opens with Deepa Shivaram introducing the significant political shift as Republicans clinch 200 House seats, thereby granting President-elect Donald Trump full control over the federal government. This sweeping victory positions Trump to advance his campaign promises with unprecedented ease.

Quote:

“So bottom line, he'll have a much easier time getting his agenda through with control of Congress.” — Sarah McCammon [01:38]

2. Trump's Policy Priorities: Immigration and Abortion

Sarah McCammon delves into the potential priorities of the incoming administration. Immigration stands out as a top agenda item, reflecting Trump's consistent focus throughout his campaign. However, there's uncertainty surrounding his stance on abortion, with mixed signals observed. Despite this ambiguity, pressure from his conservative base suggests a move towards more restrictive policies.

Quote:

“Trump has sent mixed messages about what he intends to do, but he's under pressure from many people in his base to find ways to restrict abortion.” — Sarah McCammon [01:59]

3. The Role of the Filibuster in the Senate

Even with Republican control, the filibuster in the Senate remains a hurdle for passing significant legislation. Sarah highlights Vice President Harris's stance from September, advocating for the removal of the filibuster to advance abortion protections under Democratic control, indicating potential future legislative battles.

Quote:

“The shoe's about to be on the other foot.” — Sarah McCammon [02:17]

4. Shifts in State Legislatures: Republicans Take the Lead

Rylan Barton provides an in-depth analysis of the state legislature landscape post-election. While Republicans now control just over half of the state legislatures, this outcome fell short of their expectations. Conversely, Democrats invested heavily — both through direct funding and significant outside spenders like the States Project and Forward Majority — aiming to secure more seats but achieved only modest gains.

Quote:

“Democrats are still playing catch up, but they are at least starting to spent a lot of money trying to do it.” — Rylan Barton [03:56]

5. Democratic Gains: Breaking Supermajorities and Minor Wins

Despite Republican dominance, Democrats made strategic inroads in certain areas:

• North Carolina House: Democrats broke the Republican supermajority by gaining one seat, empowering Governor Josh Stein to veto legislation without fear of override, provided Democratic unity is maintained.

• Wisconsin Legislature: Although Democrats didn't achieve their ambitious goals of securing both chambers, they gained a few seats, signaling potential for future campaigns.

Quote:

“The biggest one is that they broke apart the supermajority in North Carolina.” — Rylan Barton [04:00]

6. Republican Triumphs in State Governments

Republicans capitalized on their federal victories to make substantial gains at the state level:

• Michigan House: Flipping the chamber from Democratic to Republican control disrupted Governor Gretchen Whitmer's progressive agenda on issues like abortion rights and labor laws.

• Minnesota House: Achieving a tie in the chamber dismantles the existing Democratic trifecta, leading to a power-sharing arrangement.

• Supermajorities Enhanced: Republicans secured supermajorities in South Carolina and Iowa while dismantling Democratic supermajorities in New York and Vermont.

Additionally, Republicans defended their positions in key races in Nevada and Kansas, ensuring the preservation and expansion of their legislative majorities.

Quote:

“They now have supermajorities in South Carolina and Iowa.” — Rylan Barton [05:04]

7. Strategic Implications: Long-Term Republican Strategies

Sarah McCammon emphasizes that Republicans have meticulously targeted various government levels to align legislative actions with their policy goals, a strategy evident since at least 2010. This approach facilitated significant battles such as the overturning of Roe v. Wade and the appointment of conservative Supreme Court justices. Democrats, on the other hand, recognize the necessity of focusing on state legislatures but are still adapting to these strategic imperatives.

Quote:

“This is how Roe v. Wade got overturned. Republicans understood that they needed conservative senators in order to approve conservative Supreme Court picks, and they succeeded there.” — Sarah McCammon [06:43]

8. The Influence of State Legislatures on Federal Agendas

State legislatures will play a pivotal role in either supporting or resisting President-elect Trump’s policies. Sarah discusses how states can act as battlegrounds for contentious issues like abortion:

• Protective Measures: States like Illinois have enacted protections for abortion providers and patients.

• Proactive Stances: Governors in New York, California, and Massachusetts have stockpiled abortion pills in anticipation of potential federal restrictions.

However, Sarah notes that federal policies still hold supremacy over state laws, leaving the extent of state influence somewhat uncertain.

Quote:

“We might see similar moves with other types of policies. That said, of course, federal policy on many issues trumps state policy.” — Sarah McCammon [10:59]

9. Democratic Response and Future Fundraising Efforts

Rylan Barton highlights a possible increase in Democratic fundraising efforts aimed at regaining ground in state legislatures. Reflecting on past Republican strategies, Democrats are now fielding more competitive candidates in historically Republican districts, such as certain races in North Carolina. Despite these efforts, the road ahead remains challenging due to entrenched Republican dominance and the complexities of rebuilding Democratic influence in various regions.

Quote:

“It takes that concerted effort. And I think that Democrats are starting to show that again with those fundraising numbers that we saw this year.” — Rylan Barton [13:17]

10. Conclusion: A Divided Political Landscape Ahead

As the episode concludes, the hosts underscore the entrenched partisan divisions within both federal and state governments. With Republicans holding comprehensive control at the federal level and substantial influence in state legislatures, the political landscape remains complex. Democrats face the arduous task of rallying resources and strategizing effectively to counterbalance Republican policies and regain legislative ground in future elections.

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Key Takeaways:

• Federal Control: Republicans' dominance in both the White House and Congress paves the way for streamlined legislative action aligned with Trump’s agenda.

• State Legislatures: Control over more than half of the state legislatures allows Republicans to influence a wide range of policies, though Democrats made minor gains in specific areas.

• Policy Battles: Critical issues like immigration and abortion will be central battlegrounds, with state legislatures poised to support or resist federal initiatives.

• Strategic Shifts: Long-term Republican strategies at multiple government levels have solidified their current position, while Democrats are in the process of reorganizing their approach to legislative elections.

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This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the NPR Politics Podcast episode, providing a comprehensive overview for those who have not listened to the full episode.

Transcript

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[Mandy Wynn]

Hi, this is Mandy Wynn on Misty Volcano in Peru taking a break at basecamp 15,000ft above sea level.

[Deepa Shivaram]

This podcast was recorded at 10:37am on Thursday, November 14, 2024.

[Mandy Wynn]

Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I'll still be on my five month empty nester adventure around South America, Oceania and Asia. All right, here's the show.

[Sarah McCammon]

Wow, that sounds amazing.

[Rylan Barton]

That sounds dreamy.

[Deepa Shivaram]

Say hi to our colleague Asma Khalid, who is also in Peru right now. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover the White house.

[Sarah McCammon]

I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover politics.

[Deepa Shivaram]

And NPR's Rylan Barton is here. He covers many things, state legislatures among them. Thanks for being here, Ryland.

[Rylan Barton]

Hey, glad to be here.

[Deepa Shivaram]

Ok, so we're gonna do a big breakdown of all of Donald Trump's cabinet picks so far and the role that people like Elon Musk will play in the federal government. That's all coming in our roundup episode tomorrow. We're holding off until we can get, you know, as full a picture as possible. But today we know that Republicans have won 200 House seats, giving President Elect Trump full control of the federal government. Sarah, this is good news for his ability to push through a lot of the priorities he campaigned on. What are some of those promises?

[Sarah McCammon]

Right? I mean, let's not forget conservatives dominate the Supreme Court. Trump is going to be the president and now Republicans will have control of Congress. So that is pretty much a clean sweep. And it does mean that Trump will have a much easier time getting his agenda through. You know, it's not clear yet exactly what his first priority will be. I think immigration is very high on that list. We all heard him talk about that a lot during this campaign cycle. One thing I'm curious about as someone who's covered abortion for a long time, is what will happen there. Trump has sent mixed messages about what he intends to do, but he's under pressure from many people in his base to find ways to restrict abortion, whether through federal agencies or through Congress. And whether it's immigration or economic policy or abortion or whatever the case may be, Republicans will still have to contend with the filibuster in the Senate. But let's not forget on that issue of abortion Vice President President Harris just said in an interview in September that the Senate under Democratic control should do away with the filibuster to pass abortion protections. So the shoe's about to be on the other foot. Who knows what Republicans will do and what Trump will prioritize, but bottom line, he'll have a much easier time getting his agenda through with control of Congress.

[Deepa Shivaram]

Yeah, absolutely. And Ryland, one of the under discussed results of this election is the control of state governments because that's been pretty significant too. Republicans will control just over half of state legislatures. But based on what you've been report, they were maybe hoping for more. Is that right?

[Rylan Barton]

They were hoping for more. Also Democrats were hoping for more. They invested so much into this year's races. The Democratic campaign ar put about $60 million toward it compared to 45 million for Republicans. But then Democrats also had these two big outside spenders, the States Project, which put aside $70 million for it. And another group called Forward Majority had 45 million. So it was like $170 million that were coming down on the Democratic side and they were hoping to, you know, win some legislatures, win more seats at least. And there, there were some small successes for them, but really, if anything, they just kind of held steady. And this is part of a longer trend of Republicans just being much more successful at the, at the state legislative level going back to, you know, at least 2010. That's when they made a big blitz to, to pick up a bunch of legislative seats. And Democrats are still playing catch up, but they are at least starting to spent a lot of money trying to do it.

[Deepa Shivaram]

Yeah, you said some small wins there. What did Democrats gain in terms of state legislatures?

[Rylan Barton]

The biggest one is that they broke apart the supermajority in North Carolina. Actually just in the House in North Carolina. So that means that Republicans had enough seats there to override the governor's veto there, even if it's a Democratic governor, which North Carolina has. So now Democrats, now that supermajority doesn't exist in the House, means incoming Democratic Governor Josh Stein can veto things and not worry about being overridden by the legislature as long as Democrats can stick together. They did just win it by one seat. Another one is, you know, they had really ambitious goals of winning both chambers in the Wisconsin legislature and that didn't happen. There were new legislative maps there that were supposed to or thought to benefit Democrats and they won a few seats there which their, their counties as a success. And really, you know, this is a multi cycle project, I think of Theirs to try and win back some of these legislatures. In Wisconsin's one of those that they o they feel like they saw some success and they're hoping to get more down the road.

[Deepa Shivaram]

And for Republicans, what gains did they make?

[Rylan Barton]

So they were able to break apart a couple Democratic trifectas. That's where a party controls both chambers of the legislature and the governor's office. So big ones in Michigan. They flipped the Michigan House. So that means, you know, the, the Democratic trifecta there under Governor Gretchen Whitmer had passed a whole raft of progressive policies, you know, in training, abortion rights also, you know, some pro labor things und doing the state's right to work law. So then there's also in Minnesota, that used to be a trifecta under Governor Tim Walls. The state House there is now a tie. I believe there are still some recounts going on there right now, but it's looking like it's going to be a tie which breaks apart the trifecta. It forces that chamber to go into kind of a power sharing agreement. And same deal, they'd passed all these progressive policies there in recent years. And then across the country, Republicans just added to their majorities in a lot of places. They now have supermajorities in South Carolina and Iowa. They were also able to break apart some Democratic supermajorities in New York, actually New York state, also Vermont. And then they fended off Democrats in a couple of places where Democrats were trying to get a supermajority in Nevada and then Kansas. So Republicans did very well across the board, just as they did at the top of the ticket. But I think overall Democrats still feel like they, they didn't do as poor as things could have been.

[Deepa Shivaram]

Is it fair to say that, like the pace of winning or the pace of growth, I guess, in terms of Democratic gains in these state legislatures, has it just generally been slower for Democrats here than Republicans?

[Sarah McCammon]

I mean, Republicans have been strategic for really more than a decade now, a couple of decades, almost at targeting all levels of government to achieve their policy objectives. I mean, this is how Roe v. Wade got overturned. Republicans understood that they needed conservative senators in order to approve conservative Supreme Court picks, and they succeeded there. And then they also understood that at the state legislative level, they needed to have the policies in place that would restrict abortion or carry out their policies on a variety of issues. And we're seeing the fruit of that now. And as Rylan just said, I think Democrats have come to understand that they need to focus on these state legislatures as well, but they're playing catch up.

[Rylan Barton]

Yeah. And just going back to your previous question, it is it is a very slow process. It takes a long time to kind of one just partly because so few people pay attention to these legislative elections, but that these legislatures are so polarized right now. There's way more of one party than the other. And it's going to be really hard to to do the work of going about flipping any of those. And when we're talking about, you know, how powerful legislatures are in this moment when the U.S. supreme Court has kind of like, empowered them and also Congress is largely gridlocked or has been legislatures have kind of stepped up, and it's just all the more important and all the more difficult to move the needle on that.

[Deepa Shivaram]

Yeah, absolutely. All right. We're going to take a quick break here, and we'll be back with this.

[Ira Glass]

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[Deepa Shivaram]

And we're back. And, Sarah, as we talk about these state houses and legislatures shifting and moving around, they'll also play a big role in either supporting or opposing Donald Trump's key priorities. We talked about immigration and you mentioned abortion as well. How do those state legislatures play into what could be the president elect's agenda?

[Sarah McCammon]

You know, we've seen Both to some extent during the first Trump administration. And I think we will see more of this now. The reality that with Republicans fully in control of the federal government, the states will be one place where people who disagree with those policies have some power to push back. So, you know, again, we saw this with the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the way that the red state, blue state divide became very important. And you see very different policies from state to state, depending on who's in control of the legislatures. A number of state lawmakers and also Democratic governors have passed protections for abortion rights. You know, for example, Illinois passed protections for abortion providers as well as patients to avoid prosecution. In other states, governors of New York, California and Massachusetts, for example, have stockpiled abortion pills because those were under threat. And so we might see similar moves with other types of policies. That said, of course, federal policy on many issues trumps state policy. So it's unclear exactly how much states will be able to do.

[Deepa Shivaram]

Yeah, Ryland, I want to bring you back in here, too, because, you know, we were talking about these big investments that Democrats have tried to make. Winning over more seats in state legislatures. I mean, that was in response to something. Right. And so with so much control that Republicans have in the federal government right now, total control, we could argue. Do you anticipate there to be, like, a response to that in terms of, like, more fundraising, more of a push to try to win more, you know, seats the next time around?

[Rylan Barton]

I think there could be. I mean, if there's any trend that we're seeing, it does seem like Democrats are investing more than they have in the past. They're really at a. At an all time low, say like around 2016 or so. And now they're a lot more active and in places that they hadn't really been before. I mean, this year I'm thinking about there's some. There's some races in North Carolina that had long been Republican controlled and Democrats were, you know, actually trying to show up and have competitive candidates and whatnot, versus in years and past where they just wouldn't field anybody. I don't know if we can draw a direct connection between that and them winning a few more seats this year. But I think that that's, you know, that is how Republicans did it back in 2010. They just started fielding candidates in as many districts as they could. And, you know, anybody who's looked at legislative maps in a conservative state just knows Democrats are not really finding as many candidates in a lot of these places. A lot of, a lot of these races are just going uncontested. So, yeah, I think that there's an attempt to do that, but it's going to be a long road ahead for them. When Republicans did this ahead of 2010, it was really a concerted effort to instead of, say, losing $100 million in a Massachusetts U.S. senate race, they could spread that $100 million across the country in lots of legislative races. And that's what it takes. It takes that concerted effort. And I think that Democrats are starting to show that again with those fundraising numbers that we saw this year. Takes a really long time to kind of, you know, rebuild the brand that has gotten so unpopular in a lot of places, especially rural places. And that's a multi year effort. It's been part of that is changing what it means to be a Democrat in some of these places.

[Deepa Shivaram]

All right. We're going to leave it there for today. NPR's Rylan Barton. Thanks so much for joining us.

[Rylan Barton]

Thank you.

[Deepa Shivaram]

I'm Deepa Shibaram. I cover the White House.

[Sarah McCammon]

And I'm Sarah McCammon.

[NPR Plus Host]

I cover politics.

[Deepa Shivaram]

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

[NPR Plus Host]

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