Summary of "Here's How Associated Press Determines Who Won The Election"
The NPR Politics Podcast

In the episode titled "Here's How Associated Press Determines Who Won The Election," hosted by Miles Parks and Domenico Montanaro, NPR delves into the intricate processes behind election night race calls. The episode features an in-depth conversation with David Scott, an executive at the Associated Press (AP) responsible for overseeing election operations, including vote counting and race declarations.

Understanding AP's Race Calls

Race Calls vs. Projections

Miles Parks initiates the discussion by clarifying the distinction between race calls and projections. David Scott emphasizes that AP does not make projections but rather makes definitive declarations once they are certain a candidate has won a race.

David Scott [03:09]: "We're not making projections, we're making declarations based on the evidence this person has won."

AP's standard mandates 100% accuracy, ensuring that no race is called until it's unequivocally clear that trailing candidates cannot overcome the leader's vote count.

The AP VoteCast Survey

Methodology and Distinction from Exit Polls

When asked about the AP VoteCast data, David Scott explains that it serves a role similar to exit polls but with significant differences. Unlike exit polls, which interview voters as they leave polling places—which has become less effective due to the rise in mail-in and early voting—VoteCast reaches voters through various channels until polls close.

David Scott [04:07]: "We are trying to reach voters as they are casting their ballots, be it in person, be it via mail, early in person."

The VoteCast survey targets approximately 120,000 individuals nationwide, with 3,000 to 4,000 respondents in battleground states like Pennsylvania. This extensive sample size allows AP to analyze the electorate with greater precision, breaking down demographic components into smaller segments such as Puerto Rican voters versus the broader Hispanic demographic.

David Scott [05:27]: "With a sample of 120,000, it dwarfs anything else that you might see in a pre-election context."

Comparing Elections: 2020 and Beyond

Adapting to Changing Voting Methods

Reflecting on the 2020 election, David Scott highlights the unprecedented challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which necessitated changes in voting processes and campaign strategies. The pandemic led to a surge in mail-in voting and altered traditional campaigning methods, which AP had to adapt to meticulously.

David Scott [11:12]: "The candidates, they weren't even out campaigning in the way that they are today."

AP has since focused on increasing transparency in vote counting and race calling to rebuild public trust, especially in the wake of misinformation and distrust in media.

Case Study: Arizona 2020

Lessons Learned from Close Races

Domenico Montanaro brings up the 2020 Arizona race, where AP called the state for Joe Biden amidst intense scrutiny and subsequent tightening of the vote margin. David Scott defends AP's methodology, explaining that their analysis accounted for all possible scenarios where trailing candidates could catch up, ultimately proving accurate.

David Scott [14:37]: "Our analysis concluded that if that happened for Donald Trump, he couldn't catch up. He would fall about 10,000 votes short of Joe Biden in Arizona."

This experience underscores AP's commitment to accuracy over speed, ensuring that race calls withstand the test of time and verification.

Guidance for Voters During Election Night

Promoting Patience and Understanding

Domenico Montanaro offers advice to listeners on navigating election night results. He emphasizes the importance of patience, understanding demographic voting patterns, and recognizing that early leads do not always translate to final outcomes.

Domenico Montanaro [15:43]: "Take a step back, take a breath and be prepared for the fact that it could go on sometime."

This guidance aims to mitigate the anxiety and misinformation that often accompany closely contested elections.

Media Trust and AP's Role

Maintaining Credibility in a Distrustful Environment

Miles Parks challenges AP's role in race calling amid declining media trust. David Scott responds by highlighting AP's nonpartisan stance and its essential function in providing timely, accurate election information to the public.

David Scott [17:20]: "Our system of democracy is decentralized... without the Associated Press doing this work of counting the vote, we wouldn't have a source, an unbiased source of information on election night."

AP's comprehensive approach, combining high-tech data scraping with a vast network of vote count reporters, ensures that the information disseminated is both accurate and reliable.

The Scale of AP's Election Coverage

Combining Technology and Human Effort

David Scott elaborates on the logistical enormity of AP's election coverage, which involves over 5,000 individuals. This includes 4,000 vote count reporters across various precincts and 800 personnel dedicated to data intake and quality control.

David Scott [18:38]: "It's thousands of people, more than 5,000 people. We call it the single biggest act of journalism there is."

This dual approach of automated data collection and on-the-ground reporting ensures comprehensive and accurate vote tallying.

Handling Pressure During Elections

Emphasizing Responsibility Over Stress

When asked about the pressure AP faces during elections, David Scott asserts that the team views their role as a responsibility rather than a source of stress. The focus remains on accurately reflecting the voters' decisions through meticulous data analysis.

David Scott [20:06]: "We honor the responsibility that we have. It's really just a big, simple math problem. Who got the most votes? Let's add them up and see who won."

This steadfast dedication ensures that AP remains a trusted source of election information, regardless of the political climate.

Conclusion

The episode provides listeners with a comprehensive understanding of how the Associated Press meticulously determines election winners. By combining extensive data collection, advanced survey techniques, and a commitment to absolute accuracy, AP ensures reliable and timely race calls. The discussion also highlights the importance of media credibility and the role of transparent journalism in maintaining public trust during elections.

Notable Quotes:

• David Scott [03:09]: "We're not making projections, we're making declarations based on the evidence this person has won."

• David Scott [04:07]: "We are trying to reach voters as they are casting their ballots, be it in person, be it via mail, early in person."

• Domenico Montanaro [15:43]: "Take a step back, take a breath and be prepared for the fact that it could go on sometime."

• David Scott [17:20]: "Our system of democracy is decentralized... without the Associated Press doing this work of counting the vote, we wouldn't have a source, an unbiased source of information on election night."

This detailed summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the podcast episode, providing listeners with a clear understanding of AP's election night procedures and the broader implications for media trust and election integrity.