How Iran Is Dividing the MAGA Base

Summary

NPR Politics Podcast Summary: "How Iran Is Dividing the MAGA Base"

Release Date: June 18, 2025

In the June 18, 2025 episode of The NPR Politics Podcast, hosted by Miles Parks, Greg Myhre, and Mara Liasson, the focus is on the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran and how this conflict is creating divisions within the MAGA base of the Republican Party. The conversation delves into the current state of Middle Eastern affairs, potential U.S. involvement, the assessment of Iran's nuclear capabilities, and the internal political implications within the United States.

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1. Escalation of Conflict: Israel vs. Iran

Timestamp: 01:09 - 02:45

The episode opens with an overview of the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran. Greg Myhre outlines that for six consecutive nights, both nations have engaged in heavy bombardment. Israel has conducted extensive airstrikes across Iran, asserting control over the skies above Tehran and much of western Iran, reportedly without losing a single aircraft.

Key targets include:

• Iran's Nuclear Facilities: Israel has persistently targeted nuclear sites, aiming to hinder Iran's progress toward developing nuclear weapons. The extent of the damage remains uncertain, raising questions about whether Iran can quickly repair these facilities or if the strikes significantly set back their nuclear ambitions.

• Mobile Missile Launchers: Another critical focus has been on Iran's mobile launchers used to deploy missiles against Israel. Initially numbering over 100, Israel claims to have disabled approximately a third, reducing the missile output from Iran to below 50 in recent days.

Notable Quote:

"The number of missiles coming out of Iran going down. It was 100 or more the first couple days. It seems to be less than 50 the last couple days."
— Greg Myhre (02:28)

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2. U.S. Involvement and President Trump's Stance

Timestamp: 02:45 - 04:13

The discussion shifts to potential U.S. involvement in the conflict. President Trump's position remains ambiguous, fluctuating between opposing and supporting further military actions against Iran.

Key Points:

• Inconsistent Messaging: Initially, President Trump urged Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu to refrain from attacking Iran while negotiations for a nuclear deal were underway. Following the onset of airstrikes, Trump praised Israel's actions, stating, "the bombs were excellent" (03:15).

• Support for Israel's Dominance: Recently, Trump has acknowledged Israel's enhanced control over Iranian airspace, aligning more closely with Netanyahu's aggressive stance.

Notable Quote:

"I may do it, I may not do it. Nobody knows what I'm going to do."
— President Trump (02:53)

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3. Assessing Iran's Nuclear Capabilities

Timestamp: 04:13 - 06:15

Greg Myhre provides an analysis of Iran's nuclear program, contrasting U.S. intelligence assessments with the Israeli perspective.

Key Points:

• U.S. Intelligence Stance: The U.S. Intelligence Community maintains that Iran suspended its nuclear weapon program in 2003 and has not resumed it, a position reiterated by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (04:28).

• Israeli Perspective: Israeli leaders, particularly Netanyahu, have long warned that Iran is on the brink of developing nuclear weapons, justifying military action to preempt this threat.

• Trump's Contradiction: President Trump's recent statements challenge the established U.S. intelligence narrative, suggesting that Iran is much closer to obtaining a nuclear weapon than previously acknowledged (04:28).

Notable Quote:

"I think they [Iranians] were very close to having it."
— President Trump (04:28)

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4. Objectives: Regime Change vs. Nuclear Non-Proliferation

Timestamp: 06:15 - 07:22

The hosts explore the distinct goals of the U.S. and Israel in their approach to Iran.

Key Points:

• Israel's Primary Goals:

  1. Neutralizing the Nuclear Program: Severely damaging Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons.
  2. Disabling Missile Capabilities: Preventing Iran from maintaining a robust missile arsenal capable of targeting Israel.

• Regime Change: While Israel harbors a desire to see the Iranian regime weakened or overthrown, it does not currently pursue this as a primary objective, recognizing the improbability of achieving regime change without internal upheaval.

Notable Quote:

"Netanyahu has set two goals. First and foremost, greatly damage or destroy Iran's nuclear program... Second is to stop these missiles."
— Greg Myhre (06:26)

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5. Divisions Within the Republican Party and MAGA Base

Timestamp: 10:43 - 13:41

Mara Liasson discusses the emerging fissures within the Republican Party, particularly among MAGA supporters, regarding U.S. involvement in the Middle East.

Key Points:

• Isolationist vs. Interventionist Views: Influential figures like Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon advocate for an "America First" approach, opposing further military entanglements abroad. This stance is juxtaposed against supporters who favor strong support for Israel against Iran.

• Vice President Vance's Mediation: As divisions deepen, Vice President Vance steps in to broker unity, emphasizing Trump's legacy and the overarching goal of supporting Israel without extensive U.S. military commitment.

Notable Quote:

"I don't want the United States enmeshed in another Middle Eastern war that doesn't serve our interests."
— Tucker Carlson (11:25)

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6. Comparing Current Conflict to Past U.S. Engagements

Timestamp: 12:14 - 13:41

Greg Myhre addresses whether the current conflict with Iran could devolve into a prolonged military engagement akin to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Key Points:

• Nature of the Conflict: Unlike the ground wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the current hostilities are primarily airborne. The prospect of deploying U.S. or Israeli troops into Iran is deemed unrealistic due to the country’s size and the complexity of maintaining an occupation.

• Potential for Quick Resolution: Trump perceives current actions as swift, aligning with Israel's offensive without necessarily committing to an extended military presence.

Notable Quote:

"Could a short airstrike or series of airstrikes by the U.S. have a significant impact on the course of this conflict?"
— Greg Myhre (12:35)

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7. International Reactions and Europe's Position

Timestamp: 13:41 - 14:05

Mara Liasson highlights the global perspective on the conflict, noting Europe's critical stance on Israeli actions in Gaza but supportive of its current measures against Iran.

Key Points:

• European Criticism: Europe has been vocal in criticizing Netanyahu's handling of the Gaza conflict but shows more alignment with Israel's objectives concerning Iran.

• Global View on Iran: The international community largely views Iran as a destabilizing force in the Middle East, with widespread support for measures to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Notable Quote:

"Most of the world sees Iran as a destabilizing force in the region."
— Mara Liasson (14:05)

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8. Looking Ahead: Upcoming Developments to Watch

Timestamp: 14:11 - 14:48

As the situation remains fluid, the hosts outline key areas to monitor in the coming days.

Key Points:

• U.S. Military Support: Whether President Trump decides to provide Israel with the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (GBU-57) bomb remains uncertain. Experts caution about the bomb's effectiveness against deeply embedded targets like the Fordo nuclear facility.

• Sustainability of Iranian Attacks: Observing whether Iran can continue its missile sorties against Israel is crucial. A decline in successful missile launches would consolidate Israeli air superiority and potentially weaken Iran's offensive capabilities.

Notable Quotes:

"Does Trump decide to provide the bunker busting bombs and help to Israel? And does it work? Does it actually get rid of that Fordo nuclear facility?"
— Mara Liasson (14:11)

"If they [Iran] can't sustain missile strikes on Israel, then Israel will have complete dominance of the sky."
— Greg Myhre (14:23)

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Conclusion

The episode of The NPR Politics Podcast provides a comprehensive analysis of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, exploring the potential for increased U.S. involvement and the internal divisions this creates within the Republican Party. With President Trump's unpredictable stance and differing perspectives on Iran's nuclear capabilities, the situation remains volatile. The episode underscores the complexity of aligning foreign policy objectives with domestic political agendas, highlighting the delicate balance policymakers must navigate in addressing Middle Eastern tensions.

Transcript

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[Deirdre]

Hi, this is Deirdre in Pipersville, Pennsylvania. I'm at the barn sitting inside, just brought in 10 horses from the big heat we're having today. And I'm listening to them munching and settling and birds chirping and it's wonderful. And I wouldn't want to spend my summers any other way.

[Mara Liasson]

Nice.

[Miles Parks]

This podcast was recorded at 1209pm on Wednesday, June 18, 2025.

[Deirdre]

Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I'll probably be back at the barn.

[Mara Liasson]

What a nice life.

[Miles Parks]

Very nice. Very sweaty today to be doing that, but a very nice life indeed. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.

[Greg Myhre]

I'm Greg Myhre. I cover national security.

[Mara Liasson]

And I'm Mara Liasson, senior national political correspondent.

[Miles Parks]

And today on the show, Iran, where the Middle east conflict goes from here and what United States involvement could look like. So, Greg, this is a rapidly evolving situation in the Middle East. Where do things stand right now?

[Greg Myhre]

Yeah, Miles, we've had a six straight night of bombing going back and forth between Israel and Iran. The Israeli airstrikes have continued in Iran. Iranian missiles fired at Israel. So I think a couple developments, though, are becoming more clear as this goes on. Israel now says it controls the skies over Tehran, the capital, and seemingly much of the western part of the country. And Israel says it hasn't lost a single aircraft. Israel is hitting a wide range of targets, but two in particular are important. One is Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel keeps striking nuclear sites. It's hit several of them. It's hard to get a clear picture of how much damage they're causing. Is this damage that can be repaired relatively quickly and Iran could resume its program, or does it set the nuclear program back substantially? We don't quite know at this point. The second key target is Iran's mobile launchers that it uses to fire these missiles at Israel. Israel says Iran has about 100 of them. A couple days ago, Israel said it had knocked out a third. We have seen the number of missiles coming out of Iran going down. It was 100 or more the first couple days. It seems to be less than 50 the last couple days. So in terms of big trend lines, they do seem to be pointing in Israel's favor as and we're going to.

[Miles Parks]

Get more into what US Involvement could look like in the future. But I know President Trump, Mara, was asked about all of this this morning. What did he say?

[Mara Liasson]

Yeah, he was asked whether the United States is moving closer to a decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities that would basically be providing Israel with help with these giant bunker busting bombs that only America has. And Trump said, I may do it, I may not do it. Nobody knows what I'm going to do, unquote. And I think maybe even he doesn't know what he's going to do because he has been moving very rapidly back and forth on this issue. He started out asking Bibi Netanyahu not to attack Iran because he was negotiating with Iran on a nuclear deal. Then once Israel did start bombing Iran, he said the bombs were excellent. He's now talked about we have control over the skies. We are doing this as if he is involved with Israel. So he's gone back and forth on this and we don't know where he's going to end up. Remember, he ran against foreign wars. He ran pretty much as an isolationist, thought that foreign entanglements were stupid. But he also is a bellicose, sometimes imperial sounding foreign policy president. And you know, this is another example where he sees Israel having some success, looking strong and tough and, and he wants to be on board with that. Run up to the front of the parade and grab the flag.

[Miles Parks]

I mean, Greg, the central question here is whether Iran actually is close to producing a nuclear weapon. Israel has said for decades that they were. And President Trump seems to be echoing some of that language. Now. What do we actually know about how close Iran is?

[Greg Myhre]

Well, we do know a fair bit about Iran's nuclear program. U.S. and Israeli intelligence have followed this closely for many, many years. International inspectors go to Iran with reg. Now, Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu has been the leading voice for many, many years saying that Iran was on the cusp of a nuclear weapon. And he said he ordered the attack on Iran last week because he says it was making a new push for the bomb. Now, the US Intelligence community says Iran suspended its nuclear weapon program back in 2003 and has never ended that suspension. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard reiterated this U.S. position when she testified in March before the Senate Intelligence Committee. But now we have President Trump contradicting Gabbard. He said, quote, I don't care what she said. I think they, meaning the Iranians, were very close to having it. So Trump has now thrown this new US Position or his position into the mix. And so he seems to be much closer to the Israeli position. And there's no sign that Trump is saying this based on anything coming from the US Military or US Intelligence community. And I'd add that the US And Israel tend to agree on the facts regarding Iran's nuclear program, but their interpretations differ in Israel. And Netanyahu in particular have tended to see new developments as movement toward a bomb that would directly threaten Israel. The US national security officials have always acknowledged that the Iranian program is evolving, but they say the country's leader, Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei, has stopped short of authorized the building of a nuclear weapon.

[Mara Liasson]

And Greg, is it clear what the Israeli and or US Goal is? Maybe they're two different goals. Is it regime change or is it just to stop them from getting a nuclear weapon?

[Greg Myhre]

Netanyahu has been very clear on this. He set two goals. First and foremost, greatly damage or destroy Iran's nuclear program. And that's been his big issue for years and years. Second is to stop these missiles, the ballistic missiles, missiles that Iran is clearly capable of firing in large numbers at Israel. Those are the two big things which Israel and perhaps with help from the US have some control over. Now, Israel would love to see the Iranian regime weakened or overthrown, but that's not really something they can control and they're not expressing it as a primary goal. And again, there's really no prospect that troops from Israel or the US Would go into Iranian territory. So regime change would have to come from within, with Iranians rising up and finding a way to oust the clerical regime that's been in power for 46 years.

[Miles Parks]

All right, well, let's take a quick break. When we get back, we're going to talk about how this issue is dividing the Republican Party.

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[Miles Parks]

And we're back. So Greg, we've talked about the possibility of the United States involvement expanding here. Can you explain what that would actually look like?

[Greg Myhre]

Right, so the US has been helping Israel play defense with ships in the region and planes and air defense systems on the ground that are helping shoot down the incoming Iranian missiles. The big line that Trump may cross here is helping Israel play offense. And Israel in particular wants the US to do something it can't, which is unleash a huge bunker busting bomb to hit the most important Iranian nuclear facility, Fordo, which is built into the side of a mountain a little over 100 miles south of Tehran. Now the US bomb that would be used in this operation is called the Massive ordnance penetrator, a GBU 57. It weighs 30,000 pounds. It's so heavy only one US warplane is configured to carry it, the B2 stealth bomber. Now, the US provides Israel with a wide range of US planes and bombs which Israel is currently employing. But Israel doesn't have this plane or this bomb. Israel has repeatedly made this request to the US but it's always been denied. There's no guarantee that this US Bomb would work even if President Trump decides to go ahead with this. We've been talking to a lot of experts. They say it would likely take more than one hit. It might take waves of bombers. And it could also be hard to judge the extent of damage since this Iranian facility is perhaps 300ft or so underground. And as Mara said, Trump hasn't made up his mind whether he will or won't do this.

[Miles Parks]

Hmm. Well, I mean, switching to the politics for a second, Mara, in the past few days since Israel began these strikes against Iran, we have seen real divisions within the Republican Party and even among the most loyal MAGA supporters. Can you tell us about that.

[Mara Liasson]

Yeah. You know, there have been divisions before over the tax bill, over musk, over immigration. But this is a really profound split because you have people like Tucker Carlson, people like Steve Bannon, who believe Trump when he ran as an isolationist, for them, America first meant no more involvement in forever wars, stupid foreign entanglements. And here's what Tucker Carlson had to say about that on the War Room with Steve Bannon.

[Greg Myhre]

My interest is really simple.

[Miles Parks]

I don't want the United States enmeshed.

[Greg Myhre]

In another Middle Eastern war that doesn't serve our interests.

[Miles Parks]

I saw that last time.

[Mara Liasson]

Yeah. And there you have it. That is what a lot of the MAGA base believes, and they believe Trump ran on that. I think that this is a pretty deep split, so deep that Vice President Vance had to mediate. He posted that he thought Trump has earned some trust on this. And of course, he sees his role as a successor to Trump. He certainly hopes to inherit the MAGA mantle. But I think that if the American involvement is confined to dropping some bombs, no American boots on the ground, and the effort is successful, then I think the split gets papered over and healed.

[Miles Parks]

I mean, as you mentioned, Mara Trump campaigned against this idea of forever wars. And it's impossible, I feel like, not to see the developments this week and think of the past 20 years in Afghanistan and Iraq. Greg, can you dig into that a little bit? I mean, is this a different beast than that sort of forever conflict that America weathered over the last two decades?

[Greg Myhre]

Yeah, Miles. Well, and of course, that's the really big question here. Is this a 20 year war with an open ended commitment, or is this a relatively brief bombing campaign? And I think that Trump, if he decides to go forward with it, certainly thinks it's something that's quick, that this is still Israel's fight and Israel is asking the US to do something that Israel can't do by itself because of the special massive weapon that the US Has. There's really no prospect that either Israel or the US Would put troops on the ground in Iran. It's a country of 90 million people. It would require I'm not even sure that combined they could generate enough force to maintain some sort of occupation or regime change there. So that's just not realistic. But again, question is, could a short airstrike or series of airstrikes by the US have a significant impact on the course of this conflict? And then could the US Withdraw from the involvement? That's still not a clear, easy question.

[Mara Liasson]

And you know, the other example of why this is so different than Iraq or Afghanistan is. Look at the reaction of Europe. Europe has been extremely critical of Bibi Netanyahu's conduct of the conflict in Gaza, but they are behind him on this. Most of the world sees Iran as a destabilizing force in the region. It doesn't want Iran to have a bomb. And it's having a much different reaction to Israel than it did in Gaza.

[Miles Parks]

I mean, this is literally a story that is changing every few minutes or every hour. What are you both going to be watching in the next day or two?

[Mara Liasson]

Well, clearly, does Trump decide to provide the bunker busting bombs and help to Israel? And does it work? Does it actually get rid of that Fordo nuclear facility?

[Greg Myhre]

And I'll be looking at that, certainly, but also to see if Iran can sustain missile strikes on Israel. If they can't do that, then Israel will have complete dominance of the sky and ability to bomb Iran at will. And it will be hard for Iran to keep fighting if it can't unleash a regular missile barrage at Israel because this is very much an air war, not a land war.

[Miles Parks]

All right. Well, we can leave it there for today. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.

[Greg Myhre]

I'm Greg Myhre. I cover national security.

[Mara Liasson]

And I'm Mara Liasson, senior national political correspondent.

[Miles Parks]

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

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