The NPR Politics Podcast

"How Redistricting Could Reshape The Midterms" – Live 10th Anniversary Special

October 31, 2025

Overview

This special live episode, celebrating ten years of The NPR Politics Podcast, brings together NPR's core political team to dissect the seismic changes happening in U.S. election redistricting. Amid a festive atmosphere in NPR’s Studio 1 with a live audience, the hosts dive into the escalating battle over gerrymandering, the return of mid-decade redistricting, political repercussions for the 2026 midterms, and what all this means for American democracy. They also reflect on the podcast's journey and share personal anecdotes with their fans.

1. Setting the Scene: The Return of Relentless Redistricting

Host & Participants:

• Tamara Keith (White House Correspondent)
• Myles Parks (Voting Correspondent)
• Ashley Lopez (Voting Correspondent)
• Mara Liasson (Senior Political Correspondent)

Main Theme:
A non-census-year wave of "mid-decade" redistricting is accelerating, driven by explicit partisan ambition. The discussion centers on shifting political norms, legislative maneuvers in various states, and the historic departure from efforts to limit partisan gerrymandering.

2. Key Discussion Points & Insights

A. Redistricting vs. Gerrymandering: What's Happening Now?

• Definition and Distinction:

  • Myles Parks clarifies: Redistricting happens every ten years post-census; gerrymandering is deliberate manipulation for party gain.
  • "What we’re seeing right now...explicity to try to impact who controls the House...that is where we get into uncharted territory." – Myles Parks [03:10]

• Trump's Role:

  • "Donald Trump started this tit for tat spiral of partisan mid-cycle partisan redistricting. He told Texas...‘Go find me five more seats.’ And they did." – Mara Liasson [03:31]
  • After Republicans in Texas redrew maps, blue states like California felt pressured to respond.

• The California Dilemma:

  • California, known for its independent redistricting commission, now faces a referendum (Prop 50) to restore partisan control.
  • "This is the tragedy of this. But that’s a political norm. Nonpartisan redistricting is a norm that has been thrown overboard like so many other political norms in the Trump era." – Mara Liasson [04:01]

B. Where Are the New Maps?

• Voluntary vs. Court-Ordered States:

  • Ashley Lopez: Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina already passed partisan maps.
    • Texas: Five more GOP-favored seats
    • Missouri: One additional GOP seat (pending a possible voter referendum)
    • North Carolina: Already heavily gerrymandered; only one new seat possible

• Uncertainty and the Domino Effect:

  • "I think there are still some states that are looking at doing this...maybe some states start to take another look at this." – Ashley Lopez [07:34]
  • California’s Prop 50, if passed, would roughly cancel out Texas’ GOP gains, but overall trends slightly favor Republicans.

C. Supreme Court’s Shadow and the Voting Rights Act

• Potential Ruling Looms:
  • Myles Parks notes the Supreme Court may weaken key protections, possibly unleashing more aggressive map-drawing targeting Black-majority districts.
  • "If that happens, it is going to make this current redistricting battle look like small potatoes." – Myles Parks [09:06]

D. Voter Reactions and the Erosion of Norms

• On the Ground in California:

  • Many voters are uneasy about supporting what they know is gerrymandering, but see it as necessary retaliation.
  • "I’m not super enthusiastic about...telling my state lawmakers to gerrymander on behalf of one party. But...they feel like something needs to be done in reaction to a presidency that they are not aligned with." – Ashley Lopez [10:29]

• How Voters Feel:

  • Democratic voters are holding their nose but supporting the partisan move, feeling their leaders aren’t doing enough; GOP voters universally opposed.

• Will There Be Backlash?

  • "The short answer is no." – Mara Liasson [11:59]
  • Democracy only works if all players abide by rules. The erosion of nonpartisan redistricting is another broken norm.

E. Structural and Partisan Advantages

• Why Republicans Benefit:

  • More states under GOP “trifectas”—governor and legislature control—make it easier to pass friendly maps.
  • Republican voters are more geographically spread out, maximizing map efficiency; Democrats are clustered in urban/coastal strongholds and easier to pack or crack.

• Minority Rule Risk:

  • "What you don’t want is minoritarian rule, where the party that gets fewer votes ends up with the majority of seats. How do they do that? They do that with partisan redistricting." – Mara Liasson [14:02]

F. The Supreme Court and the Path We’re On

• How Did We Get Here?
  • "We got here because the Supreme Court told states that they could do this. It is totally fine. I think this is going to be like a reality in politics for as long as we don’t have constraints by law." – Ashley Lopez [14:49]

G. Reflections and Big Picture

• Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Quote:

  • Tamara invokes the former governor: “It saddens him to see political parties, quote, trying to out-cheat each other rather than outperform each other.”
  • "He sounds like a man from a different time. And specifically before the 2024 election..." – Myles Parks [16:10]
  • "This is how democracies...dissolve slowly. It’s not like one big crash. It’s like, okay, everything. When people are this comfortable pushing the rules in this direction, this is what happens." – Myles Parks [16:55]

• Will It Ever Reverse?

  • Ashley Lopez expresses optimism that most voters still care about fairness, but feel forced into the “mud.”
  • "I did hear from a lot of voters that they were like pretty disgusted that politics, the game is in the mud. But they’re like, if the game's in the mud, we play in the mud." – Ashley Lopez [17:39]
  • Prop 50 is a temporary move; after the 2030 Census, California plans to return to its independent commission. [18:37]

3. Quickfire Highlights: Segment 2 – Themes for 2026 Midterms

Panel: Sarah McCammon, Elena Moore, Danielle Kurtzleben, Domenico Montanaro

A. Top Voter Concerns

• Economy:
  • Cost of living, housing, jobs, health care remain top issues—echoes of 2024.
  • "The economy, financial issues once again are front and center." – Elena Moore [22:22]

B. Gen Z and Millennial Voters

• Now make up the majority of the electorate by 2028.
• Feel pessimistic about the American Dream, disillusioned with both parties.
  • "People feel so worried about the future...politically disaffected." – Elena Moore [24:15]

C. Structural Obstacles

• Fewer competitive House seats than ever, due to hyper-partisan redistricting.
• "Margins are closer than they've ever been...less than 10% of the House is up for grabs. It makes it that much harder to find seats you can actually flip." – Domenico Montanaro [28:17]

D. Trump and 2026: Still on the Ballot?

• Donald Trump’s presence looms large; policies like tariffs and immigration will heavily influence races.
• The era is marked by intense polarization, a hardened electorate, and tighter races.

4. Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Voter Cynicism vs. Strategy:

  • "If the game's in the mud, we play in the mud. And this is just where we go from here." – Ashley Lopez [17:39]

• On Democratic Division:

  • Discussion about new-wave, issue-first candidates vs. traditional ones, typified by the New York City mayor's race, shows a party searching for a compelling narrative and identity.

• On Democracy’s Fragility:

  • "This is how democracy devolves...I don’t know how you put the genie back in the bottle." – Mara Liasson [11:59]

• On the Podcast’s Legacy:

  • "I love this podcast because...my friends in the studio make me smarter every single time, which is a gift. Also, I love this podcast because of our audience, who have shared little pieces of their lives with us...We have just been hit with one tsunami of political news after another, and yet we are all still here. We are all still standing." – Tamara Keith [43:58]

5. Timeline of Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |-----------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:39–05:25 | Introduction, podcast milestone, redistricting overview | | 05:25–09:25 | State-by-state redistricting moves, political context | | 09:25–15:23 | California ballot measure, voter reactions, structural factors | | 15:23–18:44 | Democracy’s rules, Supreme Court, broad reflection on stakes | | 20:52–36:38 | Segment 2: Key issues for midterms, Gen Z/Millennial focus, party divisions | | 38:19–47:00 | “Can’t Let It Go” personal stories, podcast origin reflections | | 47:00–End | Credits, closing thoughts |

6. Tone & Atmosphere

• The discussion is urgent, frank, and seasoned with touches of humor and camaraderie. Hosts remain nonpartisan but direct: they call out democratic backsliding and shifting norms without sugarcoating.
• The live anniversary setting delivers warmth, nostalgia, and gratitude to the audience.

Summary Takeaways

• Mid-decade, tit-for-tat redistricting is a new norm, overtly partisan, and likely to entrench Republican advantages due to geography and state-level trifectas.
• California’s proposed move back to partisan map-drawing is both symbolic and a defensive measure, illustrating a nationwide collapse of redistricting guardrails.
• Supreme Court rulings could soon unleash further gerrymandering, especially at the expense of Black majority districts.
• Voters express cynicism about partisanship, but feel compelled by strategy rather than ideals.
• The panel warns of mounting risks of minority rule and American democracy's slow erosion.
• Underneath it all is a sense of resilience: both among hosts and their listeners, who persist through "tsunamis" of political change, hoping for a less turbulent future.

Selected Notable Quotes

"What we're seeing right now...super quickly in the middle of a decade and explicitly to try to impact who controls the House of Representatives...that is where we get into uncharted territory."
— Myles Parks [03:10]

"Donald Trump started this tit for tat spiral of partisan mid-cycle partisan redistricting. He told Texas...‘Go find me five more seats.’ And they did.”
— Mara Liasson [03:31]

"You don't want minoritarian rule where the party that gets fewer votes ends up with the majority of seats. How do they do that? They do that with partisan redistricting."
— Mara Liasson [14:02]

"This is how democracies...dissolve slowly. It's not like one big crash. When people are this comfortable pushing the rules in this direction, this is what happens."
— Myles Parks [16:55]

"If the game's in the mud, we play in the mud. And this is just where we go from here."
— Ashley Lopez [17:39]

For listeners old and new, this milestone episode offers both a sobering look at democracy’s current crossroads—and a reminder of the power of informed, communal political conversation.