How Trump Changed U.S. Policy Toward Ukraine

Summary

Summary of NPR Politics Podcast: "How Trump Changed U.S. Policy Toward Ukraine"

Release Date: February 18, 2025

In this insightful episode of The NPR Politics Podcast, hosted by Sarah McCammon, NPR's political reporters Frank Ordonez and Greg Myhre delve into the transformative shifts in U.S. policy toward Ukraine under the Trump administration. The discussion centers around recent diplomatic efforts, rhetorical changes, and the broader implications for international relations and Ukraine's security.

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1. Diplomatic Talks in Saudi Arabia

The episode opens with a focus on a significant development: the most extensive formal diplomatic talks between the United States and Russia since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. These discussions, held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, marked a pivotal shift in U.S. foreign policy.

Key Points:

• Location and Leadership: The talks took place in Riyadh, led by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
• Agenda: The primary goal is to end the war in Ukraine, with broader objectives of normalizing and stabilizing U.S.-Russia relations and exploring improvements in economic and geopolitical ties.
• Contrast with Previous Administration: Greg Myhre emphasizes that this approach is a "180-degree turn" from the Biden administration's strategy, which heavily relied on European alliances.

Notable Quote:

Marco Rubio (Tweeted): "Today is the first step of a long and difficult journey, but an important one. Donald Trump is the only leader in the world that could initiate this process." [01:56]

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2. Shift from Biden to Trump Administration's Approach

The conversation highlights how the Trump administration's approach diverges sharply from that of President Biden, particularly in dealing with Ukraine and Russia.

Key Points:

• Neutral Ground Choice: The choice of Saudi Arabia over traditional neutral venues like Switzerland or Norway signifies a strategic departure.
• Transactional Nature of Trump's Approach: Frank Ordonez notes Trump's transactional style and apparent sympathy towards Russia, which contrasts with Biden's coalition-building efforts.
• Implications for Ukraine: Ukraine feels sidelined in these negotiations, raising concerns about the sustainability and fairness of any potential deal.

Notable Quote:

Greg Myhre: "This is the first major foreign policy initiative in the Trump administration, and it's a complete flipping of the way things are done under Biden." [01:00]

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3. Ambitions and Concerns Regarding Trump's Approach

The discussion delves into Trump's motivations and the potential risks associated with his diplomatic strategy.

Key Points:

• Transactional Goals: Trump aims to end the war on terms that benefit U.S. interests, possibly at the expense of Ukraine’s position.
• Sympathy for Russia: Recent statements by Trump praising Putin and Russia's historical resilience have raised alarms.
• Ukrainian Concerns: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy views Trump's efforts with skepticism, fearing temporary ceasefires and the elevation of Putin's influence.

Notable Quote:

Frank Ordonez: "Zelenskyy has made very clear that he is not going to agree to any kind of deal that merely stops the fighting temporarily." [05:22]

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4. Exclusion of Ukraine in Diplomatic Efforts

A significant concern highlighted is the lack of Ukrainian participation in the U.S.-Russia negotiations.

Key Points:

• Ukrainian Exclusion: Ukraine is not part of the talks, generating anxiety about the deal's legitimacy and effectiveness.
• White House Assurance vs. Reality: While Marco Rubio asserts that Ukraine won't be sidelined, the on-ground sentiment among Ukrainians contradicts this assurance.
• Future Involvement: Ordonez suggests that Ukraine will eventually need to be included to finalize any meaningful agreement.

Notable Quote:

Greg Myhre: "Ukraine feels very much under pressure and is extremely nervous about these developments." [06:09]

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5. Shift in Rhetoric Toward Europe

The episode examines Vice President J.D. Vance's recent speech at the Munich Security Conference, which signaled a notable shift in U.S. rhetoric toward Europe under the Trump administration.

Key Points:

• Critical Stance: Vance criticized European governments, suggesting they are not effectively supporting free speech and aligning with U.S. interests.
• Perception of Isolation: European leaders perceived the speech as indicative of the U.S. distancing itself from traditional alliances.
• White House Strategy: Frank Ordonez explains that the Trump administration is reconfiguring alliances, focusing on building a U.S. sphere of influence rather than multilateral cooperation.

Notable Quote:

J.D. Vance: "If you're running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you." [08:15]

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6. Potential Consequences for Ukraine's Security

The discussion addresses the ramifications of the Trump administration potentially reducing or withdrawing U.S. support for Ukraine.

Key Points:

• Reliance on U.S. Aid: Ukraine has been significantly dependent on U.S. military support to counter Russia's advances.
• Impending Aid Reduction: Upcoming completion of existing aid packages could leave Ukraine vulnerable.
• Military and Humanitarian Assistance: While Europe continues to provide support, the lack of U.S. aid could severely impact Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense efforts.

Notable Quote:

Greg Myhre: "Ukraine could lose its biggest single source of foreign military aid, putting it in a very tough spot." [10:43]

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7. Broader Implications for International Order

The episode concludes by reflecting on the broader shifts in the global order resulting from Trump's policies, drawing parallels to pre-World War II power dynamics.

Key Points:

• Spheres of Influence: Trump is perceived as promoting a return to traditional spheres of influence, reminiscent of early 20th-century geopolitics.
• Challenging Multinational Institutions: The administration is actively undermining organizations like the United Nations and NATO, favoring bilateral relationships.
• Strategic Realignments: Trump’s policies may lead to a more fragmented international landscape, similar to adversarial approaches seen with countries like China and Russia.

Notable Quote:

Frank Ordonez: "Trump is clearly using the tools of his adversaries, looking to build the US sphere of influence in ways similar to Russia and China." [13:06]

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8. Conclusion and Future Outlook

Sarah McCammon wraps up the episode by pondering the long-term effects of these policy changes, emphasizing the historic nature of the shift and its potential to redefine global alliances and conflict resolutions.

Key Takeaways:

• The Trump administration's approach represents a foundational change in U.S. foreign policy.
• Excluding Ukraine from peace negotiations and shifting alliances may have lasting detrimental effects on Ukraine's sovereignty and regional stability.
• The redefinition of international relations could lead to increased tensions and a more fragmented global order.

Final Notable Quote:

Frank Ordonez: "Trump is talking about making America bigger, stronger, and more protected, using tactics similar to those of China and Russia." [14:18]

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This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of how the Trump administration is reshaping U.S. policy towards Ukraine, highlighting the complexities and potential consequences of this strategic pivot. Listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the geopolitical shifts at play and the challenges facing Ukraine amidst changing international dynamics.

Transcript

[Beth]

Hi, this is Beth in Woodland Hills, California. I'm at the Girl Scout Cookie Mega Drop helping to distribute thousands and thousands of cookies to the troops of the greater Los Angeles area. The fires might have slowed us down, but they won't stop us.

[Sarah McCammon]

This podcast was recorded at 12:19pm Eastern Time on Tuesday, February 18, 2025.

[Beth]

Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but hopefully you'll buy a box and support your local girls.

[Frank Ordonez]

I got my trefoils, two boxes.

[Sarah McCammon]

I'm glad to hear that cookie distribution is still going on. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Sarah McCammon, I cover politics.

[Frank Ordonez]

I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the White House.

[Greg Myhre]

And I'm Greg Myhre. I cover national security.

[Sarah McCammon]

And today on the show, the latest on efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Officials from the US And Russia met today in Saudi Arabia in an effort to try and broker a deal. And Greg, that's where we will start. What do we know about the so.

[Greg Myhre]

They took place in Riyadh, the Saudi capital. And these are the most extensive formal diplomatic talks the US And Russia have had since Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine almost exactly three years ago in February of 2022. The US was led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. And the most immediate issue on the agenda is trying to find a way to end the war in Ukraine. But Rubio said there are even larger goals here and they include trying to normalize and stabilize U. S Russia relationship, looking for ways to possibly improve economic and geopolitical ties. And Sarah, I can't emphasize enough, this is absolutely a 180 degree turn from what we've seen under the Biden administration. And this is happening quickly, lots of moving parts. And it's really the first major foreign policy initiative in the Trump administration. And let's listen to what Secretary of State Rubio had to say.

[Donald Trump]

Today is the first step of a long and difficult journey, but an important one. And President Trump is committed to bringing an end to this conflict. And as he said when he campaigned for president, and he wants it to be end in a way that's fair. He wants it to end in a way that's sustainable and enduring, not that leads to another conflict in two to three years that's not going to be easy to achieve. But he's the only one in the world that can begin that process. Donald Trump is the only leader in the world that could initiate that process. And today was the first step in that process.

[Sarah McCammon]

And you know, typically when we Think about something like a summit to end a war, especially a European war. This would be in a place like Switzerland or Norway. So why Saudi Arabia?

[Greg Myhre]

Yeah, highly unusual. You would be looking or expecting it to be on some neutral ground or semi neutral ground in Europe, especially when you're talking about the war in Ukraine. But, you know, President Trump just does things differently. And it looks like perhaps a couple issues at work here. We saw Vice President J.D. vance be sharply critical in a speech in Europe of Europe, saying that it wasn't doing what it needed to do. So at one level, having this meeting in Saudi seems another jab at Europe, a message that European states don't need to be deeply involved. Again, a sharp contrast to the Biden administration, which built a coalition of 50 countries, mostly European, to assist Ukraine. They gather monthly, either in person or virtually, to talk about or coordinate efforts on Ukraine.

[Frank Ordonez]

I mean, Trump's made very clear of his interest in working with Saudi Arabia. All these discussions are likely in anticipation of a summit between Trump and Putin, which, depending on who you talked with, could happen in weeks or months. But what's very, very clear is Trump is saying that such a summit would happen soon. And Saudi Arabia for Trump, is a likely place, considering how much of an emphasis Trump has put on working with Saudi Arabia, not only in situations like this, but also economically.

[Sarah McCammon]

Right. And Franco. One of the many things Donald Trump said when he was campaigning was that he would end this war within 24 hours of taking office. That, of course, didn't happen. But what is the White House's end game here?

[Frank Ordonez]

Absolutely. This was a campaign promise. I mean, what Trump wants to do is end the war. I think he wants to end it on terms that he sees fit. I mean, Trump is very, very transactional. But at the same time, I think what we're seeing is kind of clear simp sympathy for Russia and Putin. It was just over this weekend, Trump was speaking about Putin almost admiringly, about Russia being this big machine, about how they defeated Hitler and Napoleon, but that supposedly they wanted to end the fighting. That said, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is arguing that Putin is basically pulling the wool over Trump's eyes. And there's a lot of reason for those concerns, because as Zelenskyy says, and most analysts would say, look, the facts show that if there is a stop in the fighting, it will most likely only be temporary. Considering the facts over the last 10 years of Russia basically breaking its own agreements and returning to the battlefield, that it's only a temporary stoppage. But Trump's goal is to stop it now and then see what happens later.

[Greg Myhre]

And of course, Franco, what you said is very much the fear of Ukraine saying that the initial war began in 2014. It did halt, but it just allowed Russia to rearm and prepare for a much larger invasion later, which came in 2022. So this really is a great Ukrainian fear in the past, and it continues to be now a European fear. Oh, absolutely.

[Frank Ordonez]

And not only going back into Ukraine, but also expanding more into other countries, other European nations and even NATO countries. And of course, Trump has also talked about not being there for Nat, possibly even pulling out. So it has only gotten to be a bigger, bigger fear.

[Sarah McCammon]

And we should note, I mean, this is a conversation about Ukraine that is happening without the participation of Ukraine.

[Greg Myhre]

And that was exactly the kind of phrase that the Biden administration would use. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, that they would be there. And again, we've just seen this complete flipping of the way things are done with the Biden administration working very closely with Ukraine to put pressure on Russia. Now the Trump administration is sort of working initially with Russia, and Ukraine feels very much under pressure. We did hear Marco Rubio say no one is being sidelined, Ukraine will be included. But the Ukrainians are certainly not feeling that at the moment and are feeling very, very nervous.

[Frank Ordonez]

When I talk to folks about this and whether Ukraine is being excluded, the answer is absolutely yes. But they also see that there's only going to be a deal if Russia and the United States can get on the same page. Now, is United States going to steamroll over Ukraine? Is it going to steamroll over Europe? Eventually, the United States is going to have to bring in Zelenskyy, going to have to bring in Europe. Zelenskyy has made very clear that he is not going to take just agree to any kind of deal. But what kind of deal is this going to shape into? And what options does Zelenskyy actually have at this point? Russia has already won so much. So many concessions have already been given to before negotiations have really even starting. And probably most of all is just elevating Putin to be at this big boy table, which is something that the Biden administration tried to kind of isolate him. And now he's back in the spotlight.

[Sarah McCammon]

And without Zelensky there. All right, it's time for a break. When we come back, more on how U.S. policy toward Ukraine has shifted in the new administration. And welcome back. I want to talk about the shift in rhetoric from the Biden administration to the Trump administration when it comes to Providing aid and military support for Ukraine. Vice President J.D. vance spoke at the Munich Security Conference last week. As Greg mentioned, I just want to play a bit of that.

[J.D. Vance]

Europe faces many challenges, but the crisis this continent faces right now, the crisis I believe we all face together, is one of our own making. If you're running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you. Nor for that matter, is there anything that you can do for the American people who elected me and elected President Trump.

[Sarah McCammon]

It was part of a larger broadside against what Vance characterized as Europe and European government's stifling of free speech. He suggested the US Would be less willing to help countries that were not aligning with his vision of promoting free expression. Now, Franco. This speech has raised alarm bells across Europe as many took it as a further sign of the US Isolating itself. What was the White House's objective with this speech?

[Frank Ordonez]

Yeah, I mean, I was talking with folks who were there in Munich for that speech, and they said there were tears in the room because they felt like Vance's speech was almost like a funeral for the relationship with Europe. I mean, in regards to, like the White House intent, I mean, it's a new ballgame. And I think Greg was talking about this earlier. There's no question that the arena has changed. I would argue that Trump is not isolating the US I would actually probably say it's kind of the opposite. And the people I speak to, it is the opposite. But it is not on the terms that Europe wants or that Europe has been accustomed to, or even the United States has been accustomed to. It's a new world order, as some say. You know, that does away with all these multinational organizations like the who, the Paris climate Agreement. It does away with working in collaboration with like minded allies instead, as one former diplomat told me, that Trump is clearly now using the tools of his adversaries and looking to kind of build the US Sphere of influence, much in ways that US Adversaries are doing, whether it's China or in the case of our conversation today, Russia.

[Donald Trump]

Right.

[Sarah McCammon]

I mean, there's Trump's friendliness with Russia and on the same token, distance from our traditional allies in Europe. What does it mean for Ukraine's security if the US Suddenly decides to back off of its support for Ukraine, as we know some Republicans have called for for a long time.

[Greg Myhre]

Well, you know, if that happens, then Ukraine simply couldn't carry on fighting the way it's done for the past three years. Ukraine is outnumbered and outgunned. It's been Losing territory. Over the past year, the US Military support has allowed Ukraine to limit gains. And there's still a bit of the US Assistance that's in the pipeline from a big package that was approved last year. But when that runs out, which will be fairly soon, Ukraine could lose its biggest single source of foreign military aid. Europe is helping both with military and humanitarian assistance, but Ukraine would be in a very tough spot. It would have to consider how long it could carry on the fight. And would it have to make bigger concessions and make them sooner rather than risk a rapidly weakening military position that just keeps deteriorating?

[Sarah McCammon]

You know, Franco, I was so struck by what you said a moment ago about people in tears in the room as Vice President Vance was speaking. I mean, this is a historic shift. This is a departure from really the international order that's been in place since the end of World War II, shaped largely by the United States. I mean, where do either of you see this going?

[Frank Ordonez]

Yeah, I mean, I think there's no question that we are seeing an absolute shifting of that world order that you're saying, and the US Is a huge part of it. And in many ways leading that Trump has clearly, not only with what's going on in Ukraine, but if you look at Greenland and talking about potentially using troops to take over Greenland, talking about taking over the Panama Canal, even discussing Canada as becoming the 51st state, there's no question that Trump is talking about building the US Sphere of influence. He told me that it was about making America bigger, stronger, and more protected. And again, it's like these are the tools that adversaries are using in Russia in China. This is not unlike how China deals with Taiwan, how Russia deals with Ukraine. It is very much looking at these relationships in power centers, who are the powerful countries and respecting them and dealing with them directly, versus the traditional way of working kind of in these multinational organizations and working in collaboration with these allies, which he's really dismissed.

[Greg Myhre]

What Trump is doing is really looking at the world in a way that was sort of Pre World War II, early 20th century, even 19th century big powers with a sphere of influence and would expand their power in that region and respect the power of others. So, again, we should be looking for Trump trying to work directly with Putin in Russia, with President Xi Jinping in China, with the Saudi leader and some other leaders that he considers to be regional powers. Now, many foreign policy analysts say a lot of these institutions that the U.S. helped build after World War II, United Nations, NATO, World bank, they were fraying, and at minimum, they needed to be revised and updated. But Trump is really challenging them, and in a way even more so and more aggressively than in his first term. And we're seeing this very clearly now in Europe, Ukraine in particular. And what happens in this specific episode is likely to set the tone and be a template for how he'll pursue US Interest in other parts of the world.

[Sarah McCammon]

The idea of spheres of influence for me begs the question of what are those spheres and where are the lines and who draws the boundaries?

[Frank Ordonez]

I mean, I think those boundaries in some ways are already being drawn. And I think you can see what are the boundaries that Trump sees. It's clearly the Western Hemisphere, and, you know, Greenland clearly is part of North America. The Panama Canal obviously is in the Western Hemisphere, and even Canada. Now, I question whether Trump really wants to make Canada the 51st state. That's not gonna happen, but clear he wants to put pressure there for U.S. interests.

[Sarah McCammon]

All right, well, we'll leave it there. I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover politics.

[Frank Ordonez]

I'm Frank Ordonez. I cover the White House.

[Greg Myhre]

And I'm Greg Myhre. I cover national security.

[Sarah McCammon]

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.