How Trump's Tariffs Are Impacting U.S. Farmers

Summary

Summary of "How Trump's Tariffs Are Impacting U.S. Farmers" – NPR Politics Podcast

Release Date: March 20, 2025

In this insightful episode of The NPR Politics Podcast, hosts Tamara Keith and Asma Khalid delve into the intricate effects of former President Donald Trump's tariff policies on American farmers. Recorded on March 20, 2025, the discussion centers on the challenges faced by commodity farmers, particularly in Republican strongholds like North Dakota, amidst escalating trade tensions and economic uncertainties.

1. Introduction to the Tariff Impact

The episode opens with Tamara Keith and Asma Khalid setting the stage for a deep dive into how Trump's administration's imposition of tariffs is reshaping the agricultural landscape in the United States. Their correspondent, Jack, provides on-the-ground insights from North Dakota, a state that heavily relies on agricultural exports and has a significant portion of its electorate supporting Trump (67%).

2. Farmers' Economic Struggles

Jack highlights the dual pressures farmers are currently facing:

• Declining Commodity Prices: "Commodity crop prices are already low," Jack explains at [01:17], exacerbated by ongoing inflation that drives up the costs of essential farming inputs like fertilizer.

• Increased Production Costs: The combination of lower selling prices and higher production costs creates a precarious situation for farmers planning the spring planting season.

3. The Mechanics of Trump's Tariffs

Asma Khalid provides a detailed breakdown of the tariffs:

• Chinese Tariffs: Initially, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports was imposed, later escalating to 20%. However, the total impact can reach up to 45% for certain manufacturers due to existing tariffs from Biden's administration that were maintained ([02:51]).

• Steel and Aluminum Tariffs: A flat 25% tariff was levied on all steel and aluminum imports, regardless of the country of origin ([02:51]).

Looking ahead, she mentions President Trump's plan for "Liberation Day" on April 2nd, where reciprocal tariffs against countries charging tariffs on U.S. goods are anticipated ([03:56]).

4. Uncertainty and Decision-Making Challenges

The unpredictability of tariff implementations poses significant challenges for farmers. Tamara summarizes the core issue: "What they can sell it for is down, but what it costs to grow is up." ([01:58]). Jack echoes this sentiment, noting that farmers are grappling with the uncertainty of how and when tariffs will be applied, making strategic planning difficult.

5. Dependence on Export Systems

Jack underscores the deep integration of U.S. agriculture with global markets:

"The entire US Agriculture system, or a lot of it, is really geared toward exports... The market is now totally up in the air." ([02:32]). He elaborates on the logistical challenges, such as soybeans shipped from North Dakota to the Pacific Northwest for export to China, a system that is not easily reversible.

6. Broader Trade Implications

The discussion extends to the complexities of existing trade agreements:

• USMCA and Relations with Canada and Mexico: Asma questions the rationale behind imposing tariffs on countries already bound by trade deals like USMCA, highlighting contradictions in the administration's approach ([11:02]).

• Canadian Relations: Jack points out the specific concerns regarding tariffs on Canada, a key supplier of essential resources like potash for fertilizers, which the U.S. cannot produce sufficiently domestically ([12:56]).

7. Farmers' Perspectives and Mixed Reactions

Interviewed farmers express a range of emotions and strategies:

• Anxiety and Uncertainty: Justin Sherlock, a soybean grower, reflects frustration over the administration's ambiguous stance, particularly President Trump's remarks urging farmers to "have fun" amidst looming policy changes ([04:40], [05:52]).

• Adaptation Efforts: Some farmers are attempting to establish local markets and processing facilities to reduce dependency on exports, though these measures have limitations as most products still rely on international markets ([13:12]).

• Industry Diversity: The agricultural sector is not monolithic. While commodity farmers face significant challenges, other sectors like timber may experience benefits from reduced imports ([13:12]).

8. Long-Term Consequences

Both hosts and contributors speculate on the potential long-term impacts:

• Economic Downturn: Jack warns of the possibility of a recession if tariffs lead to sustained economic disruption, potentially worse than the 2018 trade war ([14:18]).

• International Relations and Trust: Asma highlights the deep-seated frustration among Canadian businesses, viewing the tariff policies as an "existential threat" and a "betrayal," suggesting lasting damage to bilateral relationships ([15:04]).

9. Government Support and Administrative Challenges

The efficacy of governmental aid is brought into question:

• Aid Uncertainty: While previous administrations provided substantial aid during trade conflicts, current federal agency cutbacks and job eliminations may hinder the ability to support affected farmers adequately ([09:53], [10:50]).

• Economic Policies vs. Support Structures: The tension between aggressive trade policies and the availability of support mechanisms leaves farmers vulnerable ([09:53]).

10. Conclusion

The episode concludes with an acknowledgment of the pervasive uncertainty gripping the agricultural sector. The intertwined nature of global trade, domestic policies, and economic stability presents a complex challenge for U.S. farmers. As the administration moves forward with its tariff agenda, the agricultural community braces for significant transformations that could redefine the future of American farming.

Notable Quotes:

• Jack on farmers' concerns: "What it costs to grow is up." ([01:58])

• Asma Khalid on tariff complexity: "President Trump at this moment in time has put in place, it was first 10% additional tariffs on China, then he doubled that." ([02:51])

• Jack describing farmers' reaction: "The notion of have fun and kind of, you know, that really struck a lot of farmers. It was the wrong note." ([05:52])

• Asma Khalid on economic warnings: "Economists have been warning that tariffs could lead to higher prices for Americans." ([08:31])

• Jack on system dependency: "It's really hard to undo this system and scale down." ([06:14])

This comprehensive discussion sheds light on the multifaceted repercussions of Trump's tariff policies, emphasizing the delicate balance between protecting domestic industries and maintaining robust agricultural exports vital to the U.S. economy.

Transcript

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[Jack]

Hi, this is Jack, and I'm at the first St. John's Literary Festival in Knoxville, Tennessee, where I just gave a presentation on Carl McGee, the newspaper editor who cracked the Teapot Dome scandal 100 years ago.

[Tamara Keith]

This podcast was recorded at 1:05pm Eastern Time on Thursday, March 20.

[Jack]

Things may have changed by the time you hear this. Here's the show.

[Tamara Keith]

Wow. Here is the show. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

[Asma Khalid]

And I'm Asma Khalid. I also cover the White House.

[Tamara Keith]

And NPR's Kirk Siegler is with us from from Boise. Hey, Kirk.

[Jack]

Hello, guys.

[Tamara Keith]

You're with us. Because the impact of the Trump administration's tariffs is already being felt in certain parts of the country, especially with commodity farmers. Kirk, you were just in North Dakota. It's a state that's deeply Republican. What are you hearing from farmers there about challenges that they're running into now?

[Jack]

More than 67% of North Dakota's electorate went for President Trump. And farmers are anxious. I think if you could sum it up in one word for some context, just to step back for a second. You mentioned commodity crops. Well, commodity crop prices are already low and inflation is up or still, you know, relatively high, meaning prices are high for everything for inputs, I. E. That means in the farm world, fertilizer and other things that are needed to grow crops in the fields. And farmers are coming into this spring planting season with a lot of uncertainties. And then on top of that is a looming trade war.

[Tamara Keith]

So basically what they can sell it for is down, but what it costs to grow is up.

[Jack]

Exactly. And the entire US Agriculture system, or a lot of it, is really geared toward exports. And in particular, I was visiting in North Dakota with soybean growers, more than half in a lot of counties of North Dakota of all the soybeans grown are shipped by rail to the Pacific Northwest and then sent overseas to China. And that market is now totally up in the air.

[Tamara Keith]

Wow. So, Asma, you follow the tariffs a little bit more closely than I do. And I will say I am confused because it is so on again, off again with the tariff announcements that I don't really know where things stand. So are there currently new tariffs in place and what do they affect?

[Asma Khalid]

Yes, there are. And I will say that I don't think anyone would be Surprised to say that you're sort of confused. I actually have a Google Doc where I keep all the tariffs straight for myself. And so what we've seen is that President Trump at this moment in time has put in place, it was first 10% additional tariffs on China, then he doubled that. So it's a plus 20% tariff on China, but it's not really just a 20% tariff on China because he actually put tariffs on China in his first term that Joe Biden kept in place. So you're talking about, you know, some manufacturers have told me they're looking at, let's say a cumulatively, you know, in some cases maybe a 45% total tariff from China. So that's one category. Then President Trump put in place 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. Doesn't matter the country of origin across the board. Those are the sort of two big buckets of tariffs currently in place. But of course, he has been foreshadowing that April 2nd is going to be a big day. He's referred to it as Liberation Day for the United States where he intends to announce reciprocal tariffs. His view being that, you know, if a country charges a certain percentage to the U.S. the U.S. will put on place an equal reciprocal, fair amount back because he thinks that the US has been getting ripped off by other countries.

[Tamara Keith]

And as I understand that it extends beyond just tariffs, but to other non tariff trade barriers. Like it's a little bit of a mystery of what this looks like.

[Asma Khalid]

It's as to what it will actually look like. Right. And what percentage the US Intends to put in place for other countries and also, you know, to what degree. Maybe on April 2nd they're going to announce something and maybe it's like opening the door to trade negotiations with certain countries. Right. It's unclear to me what the eventual end goal is here.

[Tamara Keith]

And Kirk, how does that play with people who are trying to make decisions?

[Jack]

Well, people are very worried about April 2nd. But then on the other hand, like Asma was saying, like some things are exempted. We hear about something being exempted from an import from Canada, for instance, a very narrow thing. Then it's on again, off again. And farmers I spoke with and spent time with just kind of shadowing them on the job, hauling grain in this case, you know, are trying to figure out, well, what does this actually mean and what is coming on April 2nd and how do we run a business? They told me with so much changing. This April 2nd announcement came on Truth Social. I spent the day with a soybean grower named Justin Sherlock. And when he read that and, you know, heard that the president say that American farmers should be ready to feed America come April 2 and to have fun, here's how he reacted. This notion of have fun and kind of, you know, that really struck a lot of farmers. It was the wrong note. I think a lot of it has a lot of them questioning, is there a plan, you know, coming into this administration. I think there was hope amongst many farmers in the Midwest and farm country that, you know, President Trump was going to negotiate. This was all a negotiating tactic. But like, what we're saying, this sort of on again, off again. Maybe this happens on April 2nd, maybe it doesn't. We don't know if it's a negotiation. I mean, these are folks that need to figure out exactly what they're going to plant in the spring planting season. And as far as I could tell, they don't really know at this point because they don't know what's going to happen. And there's so much uncertainty.

[Tamara Keith]

And, Kirk, does America have the capacity to buy more of what American farmers are producing? Or at this point, is American agriculture meant to be exported?

[Jack]

Well, so much has been set up. That's a really interesting question. Like, so much has been set up over the past couple of decades. Under free trade, American farmers got really good at growing a lot of crops, and they'll tell you they're proud. They say they're feeding the world. And so a lot of the system is set up for export. So, you know, in North Dakota, as an example, I sat with Justin Sherlock, who you just heard, we're sitting at a pickup. It's idling. I just remember this moment where we're sitting there watching a Canadian Pacific train go by in North Dakota, probably hauling fertilizer. We're standing in front of a grain elevator where soybean is stored, and it's sitting next to a rail line where it's to be shipped to the Pacific Northwest, where then it will be shipped overseas to China, the main buyer for North Dakota soybeans. And, like, it's really hard to undo this system and scale down, in this case is what would have to happen and undo these, you know, trade agreements and delicate relationships, I'm told, that have been put in place over decades to just undo it overnight. It's something that would take probably months, years, really, to do. And that's why there's so much concern that people right now are already on the brink and they just don't know what's going to happen.

[Tamara Keith]

All right. We're going to take a quick break and we'll have more in a moment.

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[Tamara Keith]

And we're back. And Asma, I want to ask you, how does the White House explain this, like, what is their rationale for these tariffs and the impacts that it's having on the agriculture industry?

[Asma Khalid]

I mean, I do want to be clear here that economists have been warning that tariffs could lead to higher prices for Americans. And I mean, frankly, we even heard the chairman of the Federal Reserve just yesterday allude to the fact that tariffs could be causing some increase in inflation expectations. But broadly, what you have heard from the Trump administration is that there is an acknowledgement that there will be some sort of short term pain. But they insist that Americans will ultimately see long term gains. And this is in part, I will say, you know, because the president himself believes that the United States has been getting ripped off. He feels like this needs to be a fundamental shift and that this tariff policy will be a way of raising revenue for the United States. In fact, this is how he described April 2, just this week. April 2 is Liberation Day for our country because we're going to finally be taking in money. We're already doing it, a lot of money. As you know, we put down some.

[Jack]

Early tariffs on people and countries that.

[Asma Khalid]

Were not treating us well. And so basically their argument is even if it possibly leads to a recession, bear with us. It'll take a bit of time, but ultimately there will be, in their view, long term gains. His vision is to increase American manufacturing and make more things in the United States.

[Jack]

Farmers in the Midwest in particular endured a lot of tough times the last time the US was involved in a trade war in 2018. And the Trump administration back then pumped in upwards above $20 billion in aid to states like North Dakota, where soybean growers were hit hard because grains were left in the bin because China wasn't buying their product. I think there's even more uncertainty now about what we see, what's going on in the cutting of federal agencies. The U.S. agriculture secretary, Brooke Rollins, has, you know, tr tried to assure farmers that there will be aid. But I think there is. It's an open question about how much that aid might be if this really goes forward on April 2, and if there will be people in the USDA and Farm Services Agency, because we're seeing a lot of cuts to these agencies and job eliminations across the board in the federal government whether there will be people to administer that aid. So I think that's also adding to the uncertainty that I certainly detected in farm country.

[Tamara Keith]

The US has trade deals with Canada and Mexico. So what's the point of having escalating tariffs on countries that the US has already signed deals with?

[Asma Khalid]

Yes, I mean, the United States has a big trade deal known as USMCA that was not crafted under a Democratic administration. I mean, you know this. It was signed by President Trump during his first term in office. And when he signed that brand new agreement into place, he lauded it, said it was very special. It was the best trade deal. And now, now here he is, you know, undermining his own trade deal. And you hear sort of different explanations for why. A White House official told NPR that ultimately the circumstances have changed since when USMCA was first signed. They point to the fact that China has been trying to bypass tariffs and using Mexico as a middleman to try to get more Chinese steel into the country. And look, that is an argument TM that I have heard from Democrats as well. It is a plausible, understandable argument. Now, the question is, well, why not try to improve a trade deal, work within the existing trade deal? Why rip it up entirely? And some experts I've spoken with see Trump's actions as a negotiation tactic because they point out that this USMCA deal is up for review next year.

[Jack]

And like the farmers I spoke to who were very nervous in North Dakota about all this, facing an uncertain future, they hadn't even felt like they had been made hold by with the aid from the 2018 trade war. And now they've got all these other compounding factors. I mean, you know, they told me that they were open to possibly getting a better deal with China, but they were really scratching their heads about Canada. Like I heard, why is the US Picking a fight with Canada? Because that's where most of the fertilizer comes from, from potash mines in central Canada. It's just where the resource is. And the US Cannot produce enough to support its agricultural industry. So, you know, it's like everything in modern agriculture and just across the board is interwoven and dependent on other countries and trade.

[Tamara Keith]

Kirk, not to employ a cliche Here, but here I go. Farmers are not a monolith. There are commodity farmers like you're talking to. There are specialty crop farmers. There are cattle ranchers. Do they all agree?

[Jack]

Yeah, it's not a monolith. Cliche or not. And actually, you know, a lot of farmers are diverse. They don't just have one or two crops. They might have a little cattle operation on the side. There are dairies involved here, too. And so I would caution that, and myself included, that we're lumping everybody in. All farmers are worried because some are actually probably going to fare okay. It's sort of like the timber industry in the Northwest might actually see a boon if there are steep imports put on Canadian lumber coming in. It's complex. And in North Dakota in particular, since the 2018 trade war, there have been efforts to create more local markets for soybean growers particular. I visited a couple of new crushing plants where the American farmers can bring their soybeans to the US To a processing plant there. And they're not as dependent on exports. The asterisks behind that is that most of the product made at those plants is exported.

[Tamara Keith]

So I do want to ask both of you if you have any sense of what the long term impact might be on the US Agriculture industry from these tariff policies.

[Jack]

I mean, another cliche we'll have to wait and see in the coming months, right? I mean, if in fact, April 2nd comes to pass and there are these tariffs put in place and they stick and they stay and there's a trade war or whatever we call it, you're talking about the potential of overhauling a huge part of the American economy. And farmers would have to scale down and many would probably go out of business. So I think there will be huge impacts. And I don't know that it's something that we can even compare to 2018 at this point. Because everything seems to be changing, as the farmers told me. And as we know, I'm not an economist, but economists and business people say, I keep hearing over and over that business does not like uncertainty. And that's exactly what we have right now in farm country.

[Asma Khalid]

And I would say beyond just the agriculture sector. I was speaking to someone from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce the other day, and he said to me that he has never seen Canadians feel as frustrated and angry as they are right now in his entire lifetime. He said that they view what is going on as an existential threat, an absolute betrayal. And so whatever damage he said is done at the economic level, that is going to be significant. But in his view, even if that's repaired, it's going to take a long time to rebuild the trust at a personal level.

[Tamara Keith]

Okay. Well, Kirk, thank you so much for joining us.

[Jack]

Glad to be here.

[Tamara Keith]

And I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

[Asma Khalid]

And I'm Asma Khalid. I also cover the White House.

[Tamara Keith]

Thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

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[Asma Khalid]

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[Asma Khalid]

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