ICE makes these swing voters anxious, but they don’t want to ‘abolish ICE’

Summary

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The NPR Politics Podcast

Episode: ICE makes these swing voters anxious, but they don’t want to ‘abolish ICE’

Date: February 11, 2026
Hosts: Miles Parks, Ashley Lopez, Mara Liasson

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Episode Overview

This episode is part of the NPR Politics Podcast’s ongoing “Swing Voter” series, exploring the perspectives of voters who supported Joe Biden in 2020 but switched to Donald Trump in 2024. The team checks in with a diverse Arizona focus group to assess their views on immigration, ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement), and other key issues affecting their daily lives—most notably, how these concerns are shaping their midterm outlooks.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Focus Group Demographics & Top Concerns

• Composition: 14 Arizona voters—a mix of 4 Democrats, 3 Republicans, 7 Independents ([00:55])
• Main theme: Immigration and ICE dominate voters’ anxieties in border states, with high concern reflecting recent incidents and proximity to enforcement actions ([01:21]).

2. ICE and Voter Anxiety

Personal Impact of ICE Tactics

• Voters expressed deep concern over ICE operations in residential areas and a growing sense of danger—even for legal immigrants or citizens who “look” foreign:

  • “One woman said, ‘It’s constant chaos in the world. I want this all to stop.’” – Mara Liasson ([02:08])
  • “Nine out of 14 said they or someone they knew had actually changed their life out of concern about possibly interacting with ICE.” – Ashley Lopez ([02:47])
  • Notable Quote:
    • “I live in a 55 and older community and they were trying to find like Asian people so that they could deport them. And that was too far because they're just, they're elderly people... We should not be afraid to be walking the streets.” – Focus group voter ([03:09])

• Hispanic and immigrant voters, even those born in the U.S., report adjusting daily routines and carrying proof of citizenship due to ICE’s proximity and presence ([03:58]).

Nuanced Views: Support for Enforcement, Critique of Excess

• Focus group participants embrace the principle of border security and immigration enforcement but reject aggressive, indiscriminate tactics:

  • “People are uncomfortable with the tactics a little bit... but the broad premise, the idea that he [Trump] has increased immigration enforcement, it seems like these are people who are generally supportive of that.” – Miles Parks ([04:22])

• Participants overwhelmingly rejected proposals to “abolish ICE” ([05:20]):

  • Notable Quote:
    • “You can’t have a country without borders.”—Ernie or Scott, focus group voters ([05:37])

• However, moderate reforms were popular: warrants before home entries, verification before arrests, investigations into ICE-involved shootings, and the use of body cameras ([05:40]).

Media & Public Perception

• Voters note the public, visible nature of ICE activity as a source of distress, rather than the principle of enforcement:

  • Notable Quote:
    • “Maybe as Americans in general, we’re not accustomed to seeing these types of activities go on on the streets... It's shocking. It's like, where the hell do we live? Is this some third world country?... We need an immigration custom control organization. Absolutely. But frankly, maybe this is just first world problems. I just don’t want to see it.” – Canal, independent voter ([07:49])

• Many focus group members cite Joe Rogan and Fox News as key sources shaping their views ([06:57]).

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3. Implications for Trump, Democrats, and the 2026 Midterms

ICE as a Top Issue

• “I think it's a top issue right now... If ICE disappears, we know that the National Guard is being removed from cities. We know he's backed off from tariffs... If he changes his approach, I think this will not become top of mind in November.” – Mara Liasson ([06:39])

• The method and visibility of enforcement—not the policy itself—generates the most backlash:

  • “The how is the thing that really bothers people here... They didn’t approve abolishing ICE, mostly because they want to see immigration enforcement.” – Ashley Lopez ([06:57])

• Trump could mitigate voter anxiety by reforming ICE’s approach ([08:39]), but some argue the damage (notably several high-profile deaths) may be irreparable and will be campaign fodder ([09:03]).

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4. Economic Concerns

Pervasive Cynicism, Few Blame Assignments

• Majority feel negativity about the economy; anxiety persists post-Trump’s 2024 victory:

  • “One woman said the state of the economy sucks. Everything is spiraling out of control.” – Mara Liasson ([11:08])
  • “Nine out of the 14 said they feel more anxious” post-Trump’s return ([11:47])

• Job market woes are acute—references to layoffs, lack of opportunities, and persistently high grocery costs ([12:05]).

• Debate continues over who is responsible: Trump’s tariffs, Biden’s prior administration, or external forces ([12:41]).

• Notable Quote:

  • “It’s just so chaotic that all the bad stuff just kind of eliminates the good.” – Nancy, focus group voter ([13:32])

Chaos as a Defining Sentiment

• Multiple references to a sense of chaos bridging immigration, economic, and foreign policy anxieties ([13:40]).

No Deeply Felt Regret — But Swing Voting Is Still In Play

• Only one participant expressed regret voting for Trump; most are dissatisfied, but not yet ready to switch allegiances ([15:05]).

• Negative sentiment toward Democrats prevails—even among those who identify with the party ([15:24]).

• The economy and affordability are consistently cited as the best message platform for Democrats ([16:21]).

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5. Engagement & Looking Ahead to the Midterms

• Compared to a prior Pennsylvania group, more Arizona voters report being committed to voting in the midterms, at least in focus group settings ([17:23]).

• Democratic messaging on affordability is considered powerful, despite low party brand favorability ([16:21], [17:02]).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “You can't have a country without borders.” – Focus group voter ([05:37])
• “We should not be afraid to be walking the streets.” – Carolyn, focus group voter ([03:09])
• “It's shocking. It's like, where the hell do we live? ...Maybe this is just first world problems. I just don't want to see it.” – Canal, independent voter ([07:49])
• “Everything is spiraling out of control... It's just so chaotic that all the bad stuff just kind of eliminates the good.” – Nancy, focus group voter ([11:08], [13:32])

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Timestamped Segment Guide

• 00:20-01:16 — Episode intro, Arizona swing voter group selection
• 01:21-02:47 — Immigration, ICE, and Arizona’s unique anxieties
• 03:09-03:46 — Personal impact stories from focus group
• 04:22-05:40 — Enforcement nuance, Democratic and Republican framing tested
• 06:21-08:29 — ICE tactics, reform preferences, media influence
• 08:39-09:24 — Political fallout and future messaging
• 10:53-14:43 — Economic pessimism, blame, and chaos
• 15:05-17:23 — Vote regret, party perceptions, and midterm outlook

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Conclusion

This episode uncovers a nuanced but anxious Arizona swing voter bloc. While voters insist on strong borders and reject the abolition of ICE, they are deeply unnerved by aggressive, visible enforcement tactics. Simultaneously, economic worries—especially affordability—dominate their daily lives. Swing voters’ dissatisfaction could prove pivotal in 2026, but both parties must reckon with the complexity of their concerns: voters want rigorous enforcement and economic stability, but without the “chaos” that currently defines their lived experience.

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Transcript

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[Miles Parks]

Hey, there it is, the NPR Politics podcast for Tuesday, February 11, 2026. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.

[Ashley Lopez]

I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics.

[Mara Liasson]

And I'm Mara Liasson, senior national political correspondent.

[Miles Parks]

And today on the show, it's another edition of our Swing Voter series. We're checking in monthly with voters who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and switch to Donald Trump in 2024 to see how they're feeling about everything right now. We heard from swing voters in Pennsylvania last month. You can go find that show earlier in the feed, but today we're going to Arizona. Ashley, tell us a little bit more about the voters we're gonna hear from today.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. So just like last time, we talked to 14 voters, seven group this time there was a pretty good mix politically. Four people out of the 14 identified as Democrats, three as Republicans, and we got seven independents, which make up a big chunk of swing voters. So this was a really good mix of folks.

[Miles Parks]

Was there any broad takeaways, I guess, big picture, before we drill down into specific issues?

[Ashley Lopez]

Sure. So not surprisingly, because we're in Arizona, or virtually in our case, in Arizona, a border state, immigration and ICE were very top of mind. When Rich Tao from Engages, who moderated these focus groups, asked at the top, give me a word, something top of mind, what is really concerning you right now? Almost unanimously, we heard immigration, we heard ice. And just to give people context, the last time we talked to swing voters, this was right after the killing of Renee macklengod and the killing of Alex Preddy hadn't happened. So this is the first time we've heard from voters after both those shootings in Minneapolis.

[Miles Parks]

Mara, did you notice that there was a sort of difference in how the voters in Arizona talked about this issue compared to Pennsylvania?

[Mara Liasson]

So what really struck me was how these voters talked about the chaos that ICE has called. One woman said, it's constant chaos in the world. I want this all to stop. And there was a broad view that securing the border was a good thing. Not having undocumented immigrants with criminal records in the United States was a good thing, but having ICE go out without uniforms attacking American citizens or protesters was not a good thing. And it makes them anxious. That was the big takeaway. The ICE is making voters anxious.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah.

[Mara Liasson]

A lot of chaos. Yeah.

[Ashley Lopez]

And I will say, compared to Pennsylvania, the amount of people. So it was nine out of 14 people said they or someone they knew had actually changed their life out of concern about possibly interacting with ice. And part of the understanding with these focus groups is that folks only provide their first names. So we're going to hear Carolyn, Esmerita and Stephanie talk about how ICE is affecting their lives and the lives of people around them.

[Mara Liasson]

I live in a 55 and older community and they were trying to find like Asian people so that they could deport them. And that was too far because they're just, they're elderly people. If you're not here legally, you need to go back to where you came from and do it the right way, you know. But we should not be afraid to be walking the streets. They're down the street from my house now. I was born in Nigeria and I know people who have been arrested and it was like, oh, you look like someone that was illegal. And so it's like you have to almost like carry your passports just in case I look like someone who is here illegally.

[Miles Parks]

It's so interesting. So this is like not an abstract issue or an academic issue on how people feel about immigration as a policy, but literally, like most of these people have found that it has impacted their day to day lives.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. And so one of the folks that we heard from there, Esmerida, she's from El Mirage, she identifies as a Democrat. She says that she was born in the United States, but she's Hispanic. And she's very aware of the fact that she looks Hispanic. And so that is part of, like the calculus she's making when she's deciding to go out in the street, especially since there's a detention center so close to her. Like just physically so close to her.

[Miles Parks]

Yeah. I do think the nuance here is really interesting, Mara, because it sounds like, from what I'm hearing, people are uncomfortable with the tactics a little bit in terms of how President Trump is going about his immigration enforcement. But the broad premise, the idea that he has increased immigration enforcement, it seems like these are people who are generally supportive of that. Can you drill down, I guess, on exactly how people are thinking about this?

[Mara Liasson]

Yeah, I think that this focus group mirrors national polling. A focus group is not a poll. It's a statistically insignificant sample. But we know that a majority of voters like the idea of securing the border. They don't like the idea of ICE going into neighborhoods and grabbing people who otherwise are law abiding citizens or Maybe they're going through the asylum process. What was really interesting to me is that Rich Tao tested two what you could call Democratic responses to this. The first one was abolish ice. Nobody like that. I don't think the Democratic Party is adopting abolish ICE as a position. But that is something that you've heard from some Democrats. Here's what some of these voters had to say about abolishing ice. We're going to hear from Ernie and Scott. They're both independent voters. They have a job to do.

[Focus Group Voter]

You can't have a country without borders.

[Ashley Lopez]

And someone needs to enforce that.

[Mara Liasson]

But when he tested the list of reforms that Democrats in Congress are trying to push right now, like getting a warrant before you go into someone's house, verifying citizenship before you arrest someone, doing an investigation, if someone is shot or killed, wearing body cameras, all of those reforms, those restraints on ICE, were very, very popular. And what I thought was interesting, what that tells me is that we are now in February. If Donald Trump wants to, he can correct this. He has a lot of time before the midterms to change the way that ICE is going about deporting people. That's something that I think voters are open minded to.

[Miles Parks]

Do you guys get the sense of whether this is going to be or how, how immigration enforcement is going to rank? I know we're still nine months away from the midterms. I get it. But is this a top issue? Is this a secondary issue in terms of on these voters minds and how they're thinking about who they're going to vote for? Where does this rank?

[Mara Liasson]

I think it's a top issue right now. It's if it goes away, just like the border is now secure. If ICE disappears, we know that the National Guard is being removed from cities. We know he's backed off from tariffs. In other words, if he changes his approach, I think this will not become top of mind in November.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. I think Mara makes an important point here, which is the how is the thing that really bothers people here. A lot of these voters said that they didn't approve abolishing ice, mostly because they want to see immigration enforcement in the country. They don't want that to go away. One part of the conversation that really stood out to me was this one individual, Canal. He lives in Phoenix. He's an independent voter. He said that. And like a lot of voters, he is worried about the border. He thinks immigration is a problem. Just some context. We get a sense of how these people consume news in a lot of ways. There's a lot of Joe Rogan podcast listeners, a lot of Fox News watchers. Immigration are things that are talked about a lot in the media, that a lot of these voters consume. But what Cannell said is, you know, because of social media, because ICE enforcement has gone so far, we're just seeing it a lot. And he thinks that's where the rub is.

[Focus Group Voter]

I think maybe as just as Americans in general, we're not accustomed to seeing these types of activities go on on the streets. Right. These things happen in the background. Yeah. They got rid of the people that shouldn't be here, and that's what we're accustomed to seeing. So when we see this play out on our streets every day in our neighborhoods, it's awe inspiring. It's shocking. It's like, where the hell do we live? Is like this some third world country? And maybe that's the problem that people are having with the demonstration of what we're seeing. I think by the votes that we just had, everyone's aligned to. We need an immigration custom control organization. Absolutely. But frankly, maybe this is just first world problems. I just don't want to see it.

[Ashley Lopez]

Which is very telling. All they're saying is, look, we do not have problems with the policies themselves. It is the fact that it has gotten so out of control that it is in our face all the time.

[Mara Liasson]

And again, this is something that Trump can control. He can't control the economy very well. No president can. But he can control how ICE operates. And the interesting political question is to see if he decides to change tactics in the next couple of months.

[Miles Parks]

Well, counterpoint to that, Mara, though, is, I mean, two people are already dead and there are videos of. I mean, those things aren't gonna go away, right? I mean, even just.

[Sponsor/Advertisement]

No.

[Mara Liasson]

And they're gonna be in political ads in November.

[Miles Parks]

Yeah, exactly. That's what I'm wondering. It's like, even if he does change t and he does take some big message from how. How polling shows that, you know, people are souring on these tactics. I guess I just wonder, is the damage already done?

[Mara Liasson]

Well, to a certain extent. But then again, we're going to have two competing messages in the fall, and it'll depend on what people are seeing on their screens at that time.

[Miles Parks]

All right, well, we can leave it there just for a moment more on all of this when we get back.

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[Miles Parks]

And we're back. And now we are going to turn to another big issue that voters are clearly thinking about right now, the economy. Mara, how are these voters? These are voters who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024. How are they feeling about the economy right now?

[Mara Liasson]

I would say they're feeling pretty bad. I mean, some of them mentioned some good things like gas prices going down, but they talked about groceries and health care and housing being too expensive. One woman said the state of the economy sucks. Everything is spiraling out of control. The cost of living, layoffs, businesses are closing. It was a pretty dire view. I think they are willing to give Trump some time to fix it. There was a big debate about whether it was his economy, whether he was at fault or was it still Biden's fault. But I think that nothing in our focus group diverged from national polling, which shows that people are very, very sour on the economy. Yeah.

[Ashley Lopez]

And this isn't statistically significant. It's just interesting that it was most of the folks that were asked if they feel more anxious about the economy than they did when Trump took office. Nine out of the 14 said they feel more anxious, which is pretty interesting. One thing I heard from folks in Arizona that I hadn't heard from folks in Pennsylvania is we're starting to hear a lot of worries and chatter about the labor market. Folks are talking about all the layoffs that are happening either to them or to people around them. And one woman said she's been looking for a job for two months and hasn't found anything. And she's worried about her finding a job at any time soon. And this is amidst high prices and not feeling like that's going to get any better. It's just like sort of a boiling pot right now of a bunch of economic issues that are making people feel really pessimistic.

[Miles Parks]

So are these. And these, again, these are voters who voted for Donald Trump in 2024, and they're feeling more anxious after he's taken office. Are they blaming him for that?

[Mara Liasson]

Well, I think there's been a debate about how much to blame Trump for this. Some people said tariffs were raising prices. Other people said it's Biden's fault. That certainly is Trump's message, and these voters are hearing it a lot based on the news sources that they consume. But that's going to be the big battle in the midterms to say whether this is Trump's economy or Biden's economy. One of my takeaways was how much all these things get conflated. The economy, immigration, foreign policy, kind of adds up to chaos and anxiety for voters. Here's one voter named Nancy who explained how all this makes her feel. Well, I like a few of his policies and things he's done. The issues I have are the big ones with things like tariffs and the, you know, financial impact on our economy. The way he's handling the whole ICE thing, trying to start wars everywhere, Venezuela, trying to take over Greenland, everything like that. It's just so chaotic that all the bad stuff just kind of eliminates the good.

[Miles Parks]

That's so interesting, the chaos thing, it feels like the most predictable part of a Trump presidency. I mean, we saw this already in four years of Trump's first term. Are these voters surprised by that level of uncertainty?

[Mara Liasson]

We didn't ask them if they were surprised. They just don't like it.

[Miles Parks]

Okay. I mean, they, they do seem like voters, though, who, considering they supported Trump in 2024, would be receptive to his spin on some of the economic stuff.

[Mara Liasson]

Just because you voted for Trump doesn't mean you like every single thing about him. And that's what these voters were telling us that they like.

[Miles Parks]

But I guess I'm just trying to drill down on why. Why are there no rose colored glasses? The way that President Trump has been trying to push? Like there are positives that you can find in the economy right now. Record stock, market. I feel like they right you can't eat gdp.

[Mara Liasson]

This is about prices, not the rate of inflation. This is about everyday, the people's everyday lives. And even though, yes, the stock market is good, GDP is good, but they're having to pay more, as they told us, for housing, healthcare, groceries.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah, groceries came up a lot. That was something that people were mentioned over and over again, is that groceries still remain too high. They saw those prices tick up during COVID and they really have not seen them meaningfully go down for the exception of eggs.

[Miles Parks]

Well, how did, how do these people feel about voting for Trump in 2024? Is there any sign of regret at all or are these people who are. Who still feel like they would make the same decision?

[Mara Liasson]

The short answer is no. Very, very few. I think maybe only one person in this focus group said they wish they'd vote for Kamala Harris. So they're not so much regretting their vote for Trump as they are reconsidering their support for him as swing voters do.

[Sponsor/Advertisement]

Yeah.

[Ashley Lopez]

And I think this is emblematic of how they feel about Democrats writ large, including people who identify as Democrats. Remember, there were four in this group who identified as Democrats. I didn't hear a single positive thing about them.

[Mara Liasson]

And even though the Democratic Party gets bad marks, as it does in national polling, the thing about midterm elections is they're generally a referendum on the party in power. They're not a binary choice between Republican and Democrat. They're a referendum on the president and his party. At least that's what they've been for the last 50 years. It doesn't mean that Democrats don't have some real hard work to do between now and 2028 where there will be a binary choice.

[Miles Parks]

It feels like Democrats in 2025, in the off year elections really focused on the affordability message and that seemed to work for them. Did this focus group, I guess, further that idea that that is a winning message or something that Democrats should focus on or what. Are there any other takeaways that. That Democrats can take away from a focus group like this?

[Mara Liasson]

I would answer that question. Yes. The affordability issue, in addition to ice, is the most important thing. And I think voters will focus on that, and I think Democrats will focus on that.

[Ashley Lopez]

I did hear at least one voter say that they were excited to vote during the midterms, were definitely going to vote, and that Trump was going to affect their vote because they wanted to make sure they would vote for someone who would oppose him because he already wants to see change. And this was, I believe, during the conversation about the economy, things are not changing fast enough. Whether it's Trump's fault or not, whether he doesn't believe his vote was a good idea or not doesn't matter. He's ready to see things move in another direction economically.

[Mara Liasson]

And if all the off year elections and special elections are any indication, because Democrats, even though their brand is in the toilet, it's not stopping them from winning races.

[Miles Parks]

Hmm. Was there any sense of enthusiasm among these people? I mean, are all these people people who are going to vote in the midterms or did they give any sense of that?

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. So that's a question we ask. And actually, compared to Pennsylvania, there were a few more people who said that they were definitely going to vote. One of the focus groups, it was every single one of them said they were excited to vote.

[Sponsor/Advertisement]

Oh.

[Mara Liasson]

Although that is one of the least reliable questions you can ask a voter because it's too embarrassing to say, no, I'm not going to vote.

[Miles Parks]

All right. Well, we can leave it there for now. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.

[Ashley Lopez]

I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics.

[Mara Liasson]

And I'm Mara Liasson, senior national political correspondent.

[Miles Parks]

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

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