The NPR Politics Podcast

Episode: ICE makes these swing voters anxious, but they don’t want to ‘abolish ICE’

Date: February 11, 2026
Hosts: Miles Parks, Ashley Lopez, Mara Liasson

Episode Overview

This episode is part of the NPR Politics Podcast’s ongoing “Swing Voter” series, exploring the perspectives of voters who supported Joe Biden in 2020 but switched to Donald Trump in 2024. The team checks in with a diverse Arizona focus group to assess their views on immigration, ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement), and other key issues affecting their daily lives—most notably, how these concerns are shaping their midterm outlooks.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Focus Group Demographics & Top Concerns

• Composition: 14 Arizona voters—a mix of 4 Democrats, 3 Republicans, 7 Independents ([00:55])
• Main theme: Immigration and ICE dominate voters’ anxieties in border states, with high concern reflecting recent incidents and proximity to enforcement actions ([01:21]).

2. ICE and Voter Anxiety

Personal Impact of ICE Tactics

• Voters expressed deep concern over ICE operations in residential areas and a growing sense of danger—even for legal immigrants or citizens who “look” foreign:

  • “One woman said, ‘It’s constant chaos in the world. I want this all to stop.’” – Mara Liasson ([02:08])
  • “Nine out of 14 said they or someone they knew had actually changed their life out of concern about possibly interacting with ICE.” – Ashley Lopez ([02:47])
  • Notable Quote:
    • “I live in a 55 and older community and they were trying to find like Asian people so that they could deport them. And that was too far because they're just, they're elderly people... We should not be afraid to be walking the streets.” – Focus group voter ([03:09])

• Hispanic and immigrant voters, even those born in the U.S., report adjusting daily routines and carrying proof of citizenship due to ICE’s proximity and presence ([03:58]).

Nuanced Views: Support for Enforcement, Critique of Excess

• Focus group participants embrace the principle of border security and immigration enforcement but reject aggressive, indiscriminate tactics:

  • “People are uncomfortable with the tactics a little bit... but the broad premise, the idea that he [Trump] has increased immigration enforcement, it seems like these are people who are generally supportive of that.” – Miles Parks ([04:22])

• Participants overwhelmingly rejected proposals to “abolish ICE” ([05:20]):

  • Notable Quote:
    • “You can’t have a country without borders.”—Ernie or Scott, focus group voters ([05:37])

• However, moderate reforms were popular: warrants before home entries, verification before arrests, investigations into ICE-involved shootings, and the use of body cameras ([05:40]).

Media & Public Perception

• Voters note the public, visible nature of ICE activity as a source of distress, rather than the principle of enforcement:

  • Notable Quote:
    • “Maybe as Americans in general, we’re not accustomed to seeing these types of activities go on on the streets... It's shocking. It's like, where the hell do we live? Is this some third world country?... We need an immigration custom control organization. Absolutely. But frankly, maybe this is just first world problems. I just don’t want to see it.” – Canal, independent voter ([07:49])

• Many focus group members cite Joe Rogan and Fox News as key sources shaping their views ([06:57]).

3. Implications for Trump, Democrats, and the 2026 Midterms

ICE as a Top Issue

• “I think it's a top issue right now... If ICE disappears, we know that the National Guard is being removed from cities. We know he's backed off from tariffs... If he changes his approach, I think this will not become top of mind in November.” – Mara Liasson ([06:39])

• The method and visibility of enforcement—not the policy itself—generates the most backlash:

  • “The how is the thing that really bothers people here... They didn’t approve abolishing ICE, mostly because they want to see immigration enforcement.” – Ashley Lopez ([06:57])

• Trump could mitigate voter anxiety by reforming ICE’s approach ([08:39]), but some argue the damage (notably several high-profile deaths) may be irreparable and will be campaign fodder ([09:03]).

4. Economic Concerns

Pervasive Cynicism, Few Blame Assignments

• Majority feel negativity about the economy; anxiety persists post-Trump’s 2024 victory:

  • “One woman said the state of the economy sucks. Everything is spiraling out of control.” – Mara Liasson ([11:08])
  • “Nine out of the 14 said they feel more anxious” post-Trump’s return ([11:47])

• Job market woes are acute—references to layoffs, lack of opportunities, and persistently high grocery costs ([12:05]).

• Debate continues over who is responsible: Trump’s tariffs, Biden’s prior administration, or external forces ([12:41]).

• Notable Quote:

  • “It’s just so chaotic that all the bad stuff just kind of eliminates the good.” – Nancy, focus group voter ([13:32])

Chaos as a Defining Sentiment

• Multiple references to a sense of chaos bridging immigration, economic, and foreign policy anxieties ([13:40]).

No Deeply Felt Regret — But Swing Voting Is Still In Play

• Only one participant expressed regret voting for Trump; most are dissatisfied, but not yet ready to switch allegiances ([15:05]).

• Negative sentiment toward Democrats prevails—even among those who identify with the party ([15:24]).

• The economy and affordability are consistently cited as the best message platform for Democrats ([16:21]).

5. Engagement & Looking Ahead to the Midterms

• Compared to a prior Pennsylvania group, more Arizona voters report being committed to voting in the midterms, at least in focus group settings ([17:23]).

• Democratic messaging on affordability is considered powerful, despite low party brand favorability ([16:21], [17:02]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “You can't have a country without borders.” – Focus group voter ([05:37])
• “We should not be afraid to be walking the streets.” – Carolyn, focus group voter ([03:09])
• “It's shocking. It's like, where the hell do we live? ...Maybe this is just first world problems. I just don't want to see it.” – Canal, independent voter ([07:49])
• “Everything is spiraling out of control... It's just so chaotic that all the bad stuff just kind of eliminates the good.” – Nancy, focus group voter ([11:08], [13:32])

Timestamped Segment Guide

• 00:20-01:16 — Episode intro, Arizona swing voter group selection
• 01:21-02:47 — Immigration, ICE, and Arizona’s unique anxieties
• 03:09-03:46 — Personal impact stories from focus group
• 04:22-05:40 — Enforcement nuance, Democratic and Republican framing tested
• 06:21-08:29 — ICE tactics, reform preferences, media influence
• 08:39-09:24 — Political fallout and future messaging
• 10:53-14:43 — Economic pessimism, blame, and chaos
• 15:05-17:23 — Vote regret, party perceptions, and midterm outlook

Conclusion

This episode uncovers a nuanced but anxious Arizona swing voter bloc. While voters insist on strong borders and reject the abolition of ICE, they are deeply unnerved by aggressive, visible enforcement tactics. Simultaneously, economic worries—especially affordability—dominate their daily lives. Swing voters’ dissatisfaction could prove pivotal in 2026, but both parties must reckon with the complexity of their concerns: voters want rigorous enforcement and economic stability, but without the “chaos” that currently defines their lived experience.