If Texas Redraws Its House Map, California Governor Says It Will, Too

Summary

Summary of NPR Politics Podcast Episode: "If Texas Redraws Its House Map, California Governor Says It Will, Too"

Release Date: August 6, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of The NPR Politics Podcast, hosts Ashley Lopez and Domenico Montanaro engage in a comprehensive discussion with Guy Maserati from KQED, San Francisco. The conversation centers on the ongoing efforts by Republican leaders in Texas to redraw congressional districts and the consequential response from California's Democratic leadership, particularly Governor Gavin Newsom.

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Texas Redistricting Efforts

Domenico Montanaro initiates the discussion by outlining the current political landscape in Texas:

"Trump is trying to retain control of the levers of power in Washington. [...] Republicans are facing some potential headwinds here. And Trump has asked Republicans in the state of Texas to find more seats."
(02:27)

Montanaro explains that under President Trump's leadership, Texas Republicans are endeavoring to secure up to five additional congressional seats through redistricting. However, they encounter obstacles as Democrats have vacated the state to hinder quorum formation, temporarily blocking the vote. Despite this, it's anticipated that Republicans will eventually achieve their goal.

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California's Potential Redistricting and Challenges

Shifting focus to California, Ashley Lopez probes into Governor Gavin Newsom's plans:

"California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, wants to redraw that state's districts to benefit Democrats. Can you explain why California Democrats might have more challenges in doing this than Republicans in Texas?"
(02:38)

Guy Maserati elucidates the complexities facing California Democrats:

"Newsom would have to go to the voters to make this change, unlike in Texas. [...] The current independent commission [...] is not looking at voter registration, they're not looking to protect incumbents or really have any kind of political influence on their process."
(03:00)

Unlike Texas, California's redistricting is managed by an independent commission established by voters in 2010. For Democrats to pursue a more partisan redistricting, Newsom must seek direct voter approval through a ballot initiative, requiring a two-thirds majority in the state legislature to advance. The timeline is tight, aiming to place the initiative on the November ballot following the legislature's return on August 18th.

Montanaro adds the strategic importance of California in the national political arena:

"California is the largest state that has a majority of Democrats in the state who would be going to Congress and where Democrats feel like they could really try to squeeze out more seats for them and to be able to counterbalance Texas."
(07:04)

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National Implications and Other States

The discussion broadens to consider the nationwide "redistricting arms race", with multiple states contemplating mid-decade redistricting. Montanaro points out:

"We're likely gonna see this over the next six months to a year, and it's gonna shape what happens in 2026. [...] It really is a political earthquake in the sense that we're not even sure what the landscape is gonna be."
(10:59)

States such as Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Illinois, and New York are actively exploring redistricting options to either bolster Republican control or enable Democrats to regain seats in the House of Representatives.

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Reactions from Political Parties and Groups

The potential shift in California's redistricting approach has elicited varied responses:

Guy Maserati notes the apprehension among California Republicans:

"We've heard a Republican, Kevin Kiley [...] he came out with a bill in Congress to say there should not be any mid-decade redistricting anywhere in America."
(05:07)

Moreover, groups advocating for nonpartisan redistricting, such as Common Cause, are re-evaluating their stances in light of the Democratic push in California:

"Common Cause [...] saying, like there's reporting that their leaders are starting to rethink their position because of the [...] Democrats have been put in."
(13:34)

Montanaro reflects on the broader impact of these political maneuvers:

"It just shows you how much Trump has really broken a lot of what had been what people really felt were their strong beliefs in how to go about good government."
(13:50)

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Future Outlook and Conclusion

As the episode draws to a close, Montanaro and Maserati discuss the long-term ramifications of these redistricting efforts:

"There's only so much [...] you very well may see more and continued attempts as populations change."
(11:57)

The hosts emphasize that the ongoing redistricting battles could lead to significant shifts in congressional power dynamics by the 2026 elections. The potential for repeated redistricting efforts underscores the volatile and strategic nature of political control in the United States.

Maserati expresses particular interest in the California ballot initiative, pondering the nature of the campaign and potential national influence:

"Is this more of like a good government campaign [...] or does this become a national kind of campaign as well? [...] Really curious to see how that pans out."
(12:37)

In conclusion, the episode highlights a critical juncture in American politics, where strategic redistricting could redefine the balance of power in Congress, influenced by both state-level initiatives and national party dynamics.

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Notable Quotes

• Domenico Montanaro (02:27): "Trump is trying to retain control of the levers of power in Washington."

• Guy Maserati (03:00): "Newsom would have to go to the voters to make this change, unlike in Texas."

• Domenico Montanaro (07:04): "California is the largest state that has a majority of Democrats [...] to counterbalance Texas."

• Domenico Montanaro (10:59): "It really is a political earthquake in the sense that we're not even sure what the landscape is gonna be."

• Guy Maserati (05:07): "There should not be any mid-decade redistricting anywhere in America."

• Domenico Montanaro (13:50): "Trump has really broken a lot of what had been what people really felt were their strong beliefs in how to go about good government."

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Conclusion

This episode of The NPR Politics Podcast provides an insightful analysis of the strategic redistricting efforts in Texas and California, exploring the intricate interplay between state initiatives and national political strategies. The discussion underscores the profound implications these maneuvers hold for future congressional compositions and the overarching political landscape in the United States.

Transcript

[Domenico Montanaro]

Congress has approved a White House request to eliminate federal funding for public media. NPR remains committed to our mission of informing the public, increasing your understanding of the world and enriching everyday life.

[Guy Maserati]

But without federal funding, we are relying.

[Domenico Montanaro]

On your support now more than ever. Please give [e-mail] hi, this is Mitch from Columbia, Missouri, and I am driving to my first day of professional development as a middle school teacher for the 20252026 school year.

[Ashley Lopez]

This podcast was recorded at 1:05pm Eastern Time on Wednesday, August 6, 2025.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Things may have changed by the time that you're listening to this recording, but I know that I will be taking very highly detailed doodles all day long. Thanks. Here's the show.

[Ashley Lopez]

Oof. Middle school.

[Domenico Montanaro]

I mean, I hope he keeps that Midwestern enthusiasm up because. Oh my God, that is a rough.

[Ashley Lopez]

That's a roug. I just had like flashbacks. Oh my God. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics.

[Domenico Montanaro]

I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

[Ashley Lopez]

And Guy Maserati of member station KQED in San Francisco is here as well. Welcome back to the podcast.

[Guy Maserati]

Great to be with you all.

[Ashley Lopez]

And today on the show, we're talking about how Democratic leaders in states like California are responding to Republican efforts in places like Texas to redraw their state's congressional districts to Domenico. I wanna back up for a second, cuz a lot has happened, especially when we're talking about Texas in the last week or so. So can you remind us what's going on in Texas?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah, I mean, the basic point here is that Trump is trying to retain control of the levers of power in Washington. And traditionally, you know, the party out of power winds up gaining usually 20 plus seats in midterm elections. And it's even worse than that when a president is below 50% approval, which President Trump is currently. So, you know, Republicans are facing some potential headwinds here. And Trump has asked Republicans in the state of Texas to find more seats. He wants them to, you know, create a map that could get as many as five seats. And they've done that. But they're running into the issue that Democrats have fled the state and they don't have, you know, the numbers to have a quorum.

[Ashley Lopez]

Right.

[Domenico Montanaro]

And Democrats are effectively blocking this vote, although that's not expected to be able to hold up forever. And Republicans are likely to get those five seats that they want.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. They eventually have to come home. And the governor can always call another special session so we'll see what happens with that guy. I want to talk about California now. California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, wants to redraw that state's districts to benefit Democrats. Can you explain why California Democrats might have more challenges in doing this than Republicans in Texas?

[Guy Maserati]

Yeah, the biggest challenge is that Newsom would have to go to the voters to make this change, unlike in Texas. And I think why that's a challenge in California is that the voters are the ones who have created the current redistricting process. We have, which is independent. We have this independent commission. Voters gave it the power for congressional lines back in 2010. And this commission, they're not looking at voter registration, they're not looking to protect incumbents or really have any kind of political influence on their process. They've drawn these lines the last two cycles. Newsom is going to have to go to voters and kind of make the argument that it's, in his words, a break the glass moment. Right. That even though this commission has been popular among Californians, that it's time to set it aside and really pursue a more partisan gerrymandering of our lines.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. So this would have to happen via ballot initiative. Right. And how many votes is that going to need? Like, what is that shaping up to look like?

[Guy Maserati]

Yeah, it's a pretty tight timeline. Right. Like, the goal that I've heard from Democrats in California is to get this on the ballot in early November. So Legislature comes Back to Sacramento August 18th. From there, I think you're going to see a pretty quick process, you to both put this on the ballot, which would need a 2/3 vote, and also to approve a new map. I think the goal is let's have this gerrymandered map out there in public for the public to look at, to know before they go to the polls. So, yes, Newsom is going to have to get to 2/3 support. There is a super majority Democratic control in both the California Senate and Assembly. And honestly, I've heard Democrats really shift on this in the last couple of weeks. I don't know if the seven stages of what, but they've moved past acceptance to maybe exuberance. Like there was initial skepticism. Could they get this done? Was there enough time? Is this a fair process? They've kind of moved past that. And what I'm hearing from a lot of Democratic legislators now is let's, you know, let's fight. Let's, let's, you know, fight fire with fire. And if Texas moves ahead with this, let's have a trigger where California will have a new map as well.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. And I wonder how Republicans, though, in California's congressional delegation are feeling about this. Are we hearing it? I'm sure they're not thrilled about being dropped out of their districts, but have they been speaking out about this yet?

[Guy Maserati]

Yeah, I mean, they've become the biggest fans of California's independent redistricting in the last few weeks. I mean, we've heard, you know, Republicans obviously concerned for their own seats. We even heard a Republican, Kevin Kiley in the Sacramento area, who a lot of folks see as particularly vulnerable in a redraw. He came out with a bill in Congress to say there should not be any mid decade redistricting anywhere in America. He also criticized the House Speaker, Mike Johnson, said, you know, he should step in and kind of stop this. So clearly there is some concern among Republicans here that this map could, you know, lose them a few seats in California.

[Ashley Lopez]

So I should say, like, California isn't the only state that has an independent commission for redistricting. There was, like, this movement across the country to get these commissions up and running to, like, have a say in how these lines are drawn. What has changed, though, since California passed its commission?

[Domenico Montanaro]

The whole world, everything about politics has changed since 2010, for the most part. I mean, there was no President Trump. There was no Donald Trump even on the horizon as a possibility to be president. And now he is. He's taken a really partisan approach, trying to push to have as many seats as possible squeezed out of Texas. And it's the largest state where Republicans can get those number of seats. That's why California on the Democratic side is so key, because it's the largest state that has a majority of Democrats in the state who would be going to Congress and where Democrats feel like they could really try to squeeze out more seats for them and to be able to counterbalance Texas. So it's, you know, a huge issue for a lot of voters who feel like Democrats have not been fighting fire with fire and that they have been really fighting with one hand behind their back. I talked to Aaron Covey, who is the House editor at the Cook Political Report, about this, and here's some of what she had to say.

[Ashley Lopez]

It's really forced them to operate at a disadvantage when it comes to a redistricting arms race, because Republicans largely control the redistricting process in red states. But in a lot of blue states, Democrats have ceded a lot of their power to these independent commissions, which draw fairer maps but don't allow Democrats to maximize their gains.

[Domenico Montanaro]

There had been this movement with Democrats seeing redistricting happening, gerrymandering across the country, where they see these weirdly shaped districts, said that, hey, that's unfair. There should be a movement to have more independent commissions. Unfortunately for Democrats, it was mostly only Democrats that signed on for that. And Republicans continued to be able to gerrymander. And look, the reason that they're able to do it so easily is because we are more segregated ideologically than we ever have been before. And that kind of sorting makes it really easy to draw tight lines around one party or the other.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. Well, Guy, there are still a lot of Democratic voters in California, including people who voted for the original redistricting commission initiative. I mean, I wonder how they're seeing this. I mean, do you think, is there an appetite to change this and reverse course?

[Guy Maserati]

I mean, we'll have to see. But I think the extent to which Newsom can make this a national election. Right. If this goes to the ballot in California, his path to getting this passed is really about making this Democrats versus Republicans. And you saw this right when Newsom was facing a recall a few years ago. His path to victory was really making this about red versus blue, California versus Trump, Democrats versus Republicans. I think that's really gonna be the strategy that he'll pursue to try to get this passed by California voters and not make this about any independent redistricting or fair maps, make this a partisan fight. And to Domenico's point, I think Newsom really sees this beyond just responding to Texas as responding to a desire by Democrats to have more combativeness, to have more fight, to be more confrontational. And I think he sees this both for his own ambitions and kind of where the party's at right now as a real opportunity to do this.

[Domenico Montanaro]

And given the stakes here, this is likely going to be the most closely watched election in the country if they wind up getting this on the ballot in California, because there's a lot at stake.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. All right, we're going to take a quick break. More in a moment.

[Guy Maserati]

Federal funding for public media has been eliminated. That means decades of bipartisan support for public radio and television is ending.

[Domenico Montanaro]

To be clear, NPR isn't going anywhere, but we do need your support.

[Guy Maserati]

Please give today to help keep rigorous.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Independent and irreplaceable news coverage available to.

[Guy Maserati]

Everybody free of charge. You can make your [e-mail] and thank you. Federal funding for public media has been.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Eliminated, which means decades of support for public radio and television from both political parties is ending. To be clear, NPR isn't going anywhere. But we do need your support. We hope you'll give today to keep rigorous, independent and irreplaceable news coverage available to everyone free of charge. Make your [e-mail] and thank you. This summer on Planet Money Summer School, we're learning about political economy. We're getting into the nitty gritty of what government does with things like trade, taxes, immigration, and healthcare. So politics and economics, which are taught separately, they shouldn't be separated at all.

[Guy Maserati]

I think you have to understand one.

[Domenico Montanaro]

To really appreciate the other. So what is the right amount of government in our lives? Tune into Planet Money Summer School from npr, wherever you get your podcasts.

[Ashley Lopez]

And we're back. Domenico. There are several states where lawmakers are talking about redrawing their congressional districts. Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Illinois, and New York, just to name a few. What do you make of all these states considering new districts, like in the middle of a decade?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah, I think it's really because they've set off this redistricting arms race with what started in Texas here. And I think all of the other states now are looking at ways that, that they could squeeze out some more seats to potentially either help President Trump or to be able to help Democrats try to take back the House to be a check on President Trump. And that's why we're seeing this all across the country. We're likely gonna see this over the next six months to a year, and it's gonna shape what happens in 2026. We're gonna have to wait to see how it all winds up shaking out. There's a lot that's gonna have to happen, but it really is a political earthquake in the sense that we're not even sure what the landscape is gonna be, what the seats are gonna be. And California, two major players who we're going to be looking at.

[Ashley Lopez]

But, like, what kind of future does this sort of map out for us? I imagine there could be some fallout if this is, like, an effective tool to keep control for either party. We could maybe see this happen every two years. I mean, what do you think could come of all this?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Well, I mean, there's only so much, you know, juice you can get from the orange when you squeeze it. Right. I mean, you can try to strain it. You can try to, you know, use a new tool. And they may get a few more drips out of this, but there's, there's only so far they can really go, but you very well may see more and continued attempts as populations change. A lot of Southern states have been growing. The Sunbelt states have been increasing in population. That's only served to help Republicans because a lot of those places have been controlled by Republicans.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. And Guy, what are you watching for in California as this debate continues?

[Guy Maserati]

I'm really curious. So if Texas moves ahead with their plan, Newsom goes to the ballot, asking California voters for these new maps. What does the no campaign look like? Yeah, I think when independent redistricting came about in California, it was really an effort by then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, you know, some of big financial supporters. Do they come out of the woodwork? I mean, they haven't really been at the forefront of state politics in a few years. Is this more of like a good government campaign where it's people who support the commission saying, look, you know, the proof is in the pudding? You compare California's House campaigns to what's going on in Texas and Florida. We've had far more competitive elections in our state over the last two cycles than those states that have drawn more partisan maps. Is that a winning message, you know, the good government thing, or does this become a national kind of campaign as well? Do we see national Republican money pour into California to kind of fund this effort against Newsom? Really curious to see how that pans out.

[Ashley Lopez]

I will say we're kind of like already seeing this, right? Common Cause, which is one of the biggest advocates for nonpartisan redistricting, saying, like there's reporting that their leaders are starting to rethink their position because of the, I mean, the sort of posture that Democrats have been put in.

[Domenico Montanaro]

I think it just shows you how much Trump has really broken a lot of what had been what people really felt were their strong beliefs in how to go about good government.

[Ashley Lopez]

All right. Let's leave it there for today. Thank you for joining us, Guy.

[Guy Maserati]

Yeah, thanks so much for having me.

[Ashley Lopez]

I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics.

[Domenico Montanaro]

And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

[Ashley Lopez]

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast. How are you choosing to live on autopilot or with intention, the way you think you should or the way you want to? I'm Marielle Segarra, host of the Life Kit Podcast. Each episode is like a mini guidebook, Paretu Vida, so you can manage time, money, fitness, amor and other life things on your terms. Listen to the Life Kit podcast from npr. Hi, it's Terry Gross, host of Fresh air.

[Guy Maserati]

I just talked to comic, actor and podcaster Marc Maron about grief cats, his.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Early standup, and why he's often guarded in relationships. But on his podcast and in front.

[Guy Maserati]

Of an audience, he's open and open, vulnerable. I'm very open hearted. When people are gonna leave, find my interview with Marc Maron wherever you listen to FRESH Air.

[Ashley Lopez]

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[Domenico Montanaro]

That means we spent the last 15 years talking about what exactly? Bad reality TV? Actually good.

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That's 15 years of buzzy pop culture chitchat. And here's to many more. With you along for the ride, listen to Pop Culture Happy Hour on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcast.