It All Comes Down To This — Here's How To Follow The Results

Summary

The NPR Politics Podcast: "It All Comes Down To This — Here's How To Follow The Results"

Recorded on November 4 at 1:17 PM, this episode delves into the intense final stretch of the 2024 election, providing listeners with comprehensive analysis, polling insights, and a guide on navigating Election Night.

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1. Election Night Preparations and Polling Overview

Susan Davis opens the discussion by highlighting the historic closeness of the 2024 election. With voting concluding the next day, the hosts emphasize the importance of various NPR podcasts in keeping listeners informed throughout the election process.

Domenico Montanaro presents the latest NPR PBS News Marist College poll, revealing that Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead of 51-47 among likely voters. However, when considering only registered voters, the race tightens to a 49-49 tie. Harris's strength lies in her support among white college-educated voters (a group with high turnout rates) and robust backing from Black voters (83%) and Latino voters (61%)—her highest support levels in these demographics, though still slightly below previous Democratic performances.

"Harris is doing better with white college educated voters in particular, who are a group that turn out at among the highest rates of any group."
— Domenico Montanaro [03:12]

2. The Unprecedented Closeness of the Race

Mara Liasson expresses surprise at the election's unprecedented closeness, noting that neither candidate has managed to secure a decisive advantage despite clear fundamentals favoring the Republicans, such as an unpopular administration and pressing economic issues.

Domenico likens the stagnant race to Groundhog Day, highlighting the lack of significant shifts despite the ongoing political realignment in the U.S.

"We've never had an election this close for this long where neither candidate has broken away."
— Mara Liasson [04:22]

3. Voter Perceptions and Gender Divides

The discussion shifts to voter perceptions of Harris's sincerity versus Trump's commitment. Montanaro reveals a 49-49 split among voters regarding whether Harris genuinely intends to follow through on her proposals or if they are merely political promises. A significant gender divide is evident:

• 67% of white women with college degrees believe Harris's intentions are sincere.
• Only 67% of white men without college degrees share this belief.

This divide underscores broader challenges surrounding women in leadership.

"There is a huge gender split here... And I think that this question in particular tells you a little bit about men in this election and what they think of women leadership."
— Domenico Montanaro [06:03]

In contrast, Trump is viewed as more likely to adhere to his commitments, with 55% believing in his genuineness. However, 47% of respondents still consider voting for him due to controversial and draconian policies.

"They certainly believe that Trump is more likely to follow through on his commitments."
— Domenico Montanaro [07:07]

4. The Margin of Error and Poll Reliability

Mara Liasson highlights the critical role of the margin of error in interpreting these close polls. With the race within a three to five-point margin, polls become less predictive, emphasizing the importance of late-deciding voters.

"These polls have been so close, they're within what we call the margin of error, which means that they could be wrong by four or three or five points in either direction."
— Mara Liasson [07:43]

Domenico concurs, suggesting that late deciders could tip the balance, with the Harris campaign confident in gaining support in final days.

5. Harris vs. Biden: A Turnaround in Democratic Leadership

The hosts reflect on Kamala Harris's entry into the race, which revitalized Democratic prospects after Joe Biden's polling decline post his 2020 campaign. Montanaro credits Harris with reversing negative trends, particularly after Biden's challenging debates.

"The trend line was certainly heading in the opposite direction for Biden and Democrats after Biden's disastrous debate back in June. And when Harris got in, all of that flipped."
— Domenico Montanaro [10:08]

Mara Liasson agrees, stating that while Harris hasn't secured a lead beyond the margin of error, Democrats are in a stronger position than they would have been under Biden.

6. Key Issues Influencing the Election

Susan Davis prompts a deeper dive into the critical issues shaping voter decisions, starting with abortion rights.

Mara Liasson emphasizes abortion as a pivotal issue, especially in states like Arizona with referendums on the ballot. However, Montanaro notes that while abortion is a significant concern for Democrats, it alone isn't a decisive factor, as evidenced by some Republican women supporting abortion rights alongside voting for Trump.

"Abortion rights is a little bit lower on the list of priorities that people have. They say when they're going to go into the ballot box... but when you ask it as a second choice, it really pops abortion rights for Democrats in particular."
— Domenico Montanaro [12:53]

The conversation then shifts to preserving democracy as another top issue, especially among independents. Harris leverages this concern to appeal to voters wary of Trump's authoritarian rhetoric and actions surrounding January 6th.

"Three in 10 voters said that preserving democracy was top on their list... especially considering that Republicans were much further off saying that they cared more about inflation and immigration."
— Domenico Montanaro [14:27]

7. The Role of Foreign Policy and Legal Troubles

While foreign policy issues, such as the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, are acknowledged, Liasson and Montanaro agree they play a secondary role compared to domestic concerns. However, specific events, like the Gaza conflict, affect voter sentiments in regions with significant Arab American populations, such as Wayne County, Michigan.

Montanaro also touches on Trump's legal challenges, suggesting that his felony convictions could sway undecided voters who are apprehensive about electing a president with such legal issues.

"Trump, having said nice things about strong men, seemingly wanting to emulate a lot of them and their policies, using this really authoritarian rhetoric... paints a picture for some voters who might have been teetering on the edges about Trump to say, I just can't vote for that guy."
— Domenico Montanaro [17:37]

8. Final Thoughts and Election Day Outlook

As the episode wraps up, Montanaro urges patience, recalling the protracted 2020 election results. Davis expresses hope for a swift and clear outcome, contrasting their usual cynical tone.

"It might all be perfect."
— Susan Davis [19:11]

The hosts remind listeners to tune into NPR's live coverage and upcoming podcasts for real-time updates as votes are counted.

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Conclusion

This final episode before Election Day offers a nuanced analysis of the 2024 race's complexities. With polls indicating an exceptionally close battle, the outcome remains uncertain, hinging on voter turnout, key issue priorities like abortion and democracy, and late shifts in voter sentiment. The NPR Politics Podcast serves as an essential guide for listeners navigating the final hours before the election's resolution.

Transcript

[Susan Davis]

Hey, it's Aisha Harris from Pop Culture Happy Hour. If you love NPR Podcasts, you'll want the new NPR Podcast Bundle. Enjoy an all you can eat selection of NPR podcasts with sponsor free listening and bonus episodes. Plus, you'll be supporting public radio. Check it [e-mail] hey, it's Sue. And real quick, before the show, it has been a wild, exciting, exhausting election season. And here in the home stretch, we want you to know about a few other ways you can keep up with with everything happening each day. First, there's NPR's morning news podcast, Up First. That show is recorded before dawn and out by 7:00am Eastern Time each weekday. Often you'll hear one of us from this show on that one. It's the morning podcast that captures the news overnight. Up first, 7am second, later in the day, you can find a new episode of Consider this the Podcast where NPR covers one big story in depth every weekday evening. They will be all over this election and its aftermath, too. And of course, we will be here for you pretty much anytime there is big news with the context and analysis you need to understand it. So up first in the morning, Consider this in the evening. And right here, the NPR Politics Podcast each weekday and anytime big political news happens. That is your Election News Survival Kit from NPR Podcast. Okay, thanks for listening. Here's the show.

[Nathan]

Hi, this is Nathan in Little Rock, Arkansas, and I just cast my vote in this year's historic election. Now I'm about to perform Beethoven's Fifth Symphony. Although the angst of that first da da da da motif accurately describes my anxiety over this election season, I'll still be tuning into the NPR Politics Podcast to stay informed.

[Susan Davis]

This podcast was recorded at 1:17pm on Monday, November 4.

[Nathan]

Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I will have done my civic duty and keep my I voted sticker on my viola case for quite a while. Okay, here's the show.

[Susan Davis]

You know, if election 2024 had a soundtrack, that might be it.

[Mara Liasson]

That would be.

[Domenico Montanaro]

There'S there's always something creepy and exciting about orchestra warming up. You know, my grandfather was a bassoonist and my mom loves the orchestra. So we would hear it a lot. And you're always kind of this feeling of anticipation just like the election coming.

[Susan Davis]

Low key Basunus Flex hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics.

[Domenico Montanaro]

I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

[Mara Liasson]

And I'm Mara Liasson, senior national political correspondent.

[Susan Davis]

And if you can believe it. This is our last podcast before voting ends tomorrow on Election Day. And we expect to be back in your feeds in the very early hours of Wednesday morning with an update about where things stand in all the elections. But today on the show, our last takes and a viewer's guide for how to take in the news tomorrow night. But Domenico, first, we have one final NPR PBS News Marist College poll out. Hit me with the top lines.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Well, I think it's really interesting here that, you know, Harris is now up to a 51:47 lead among likely voters, but when you look at just registered voters, it's 49 49. So it's really going to depend on how people get out to the polls. Harris is doing better with likely voters because she's doing better with white college educated voters in particular, who are a group that turn out at among the highest rates of any group. So does that hold? I'm going to be curious to see. She also is doing very well, by the way, with black voters, 83% are saying that they're going to vote for Harris. After all this talk during the campaign about whether Trump is siphoning off young black men right now, this is the highest she's done with black voters and Latino voters, 61% say that they're going to be voting for Harris, which is the best she's done in our survey, yet still a little below where Democrats have been previously with them.

[Susan Davis]

This poll, if not all polling leading up to Election Day, keeps telling us the same thing. This is an extraordinary close election. And I wonder to both of you if at any point you find it surprising that neither candidate has been able to break away in the closing stretch.

[Mara Liasson]

I'm surprised. We've never had an election this close for this long where neither candidate has broken away. When you look at the fundamentals of the race, Trump or the Republican should be way ahead. Voters think the country is on the wrong track. The administration is very unpopular. Prices are too high. He is seen as better on the issues that voters care about most, like the economy and immigration. But he hasn't been able to break away and neither has she. That's been surprising.

[Domenico Montanaro]

He's got some real character issues, obviously, that a lot of people don't like. He has an unfavorable rating that's above 50% and has stayed there for as long as he's been in the spotlight. And frankly, I feel like I'm Bill Murray in Groundhog Day slamming his alarm clock into the floor because it's just another day and it's exactly the same thing over and over again. And not much changes or moves the needle. But I will say there's been some really important shifts underneath all those top lines. We're in the middle of an American political realignment, and sometimes when that's happening, it's hard to see what's actually happening and where we come out on the other side.

[Mara Liasson]

Right. You have to see that in hindsight, historical rules only work till they stop working. And we're not going to know which one stopped working until after all the votes are counted and we can look at the results. But we do know that timing is everything in politics, and last minute or last weekend surges are often very important. The final undeciders generally break in one direction or the other. In 2016, they broke for Trump. The Harris campaign thinks that they're breaking for her this time. And that's something that no poll is going to measure.

[Domenico Montanaro]

I think the other thing that's really important in our survey is we asked asked a question about whether or not you think Harris intends to carry out her proposals or if her promises are basically just politics intended to make people vote for her. We asked the same of Trump, but I want to focus on Harris because she hasn't really been able to close the deal with a lot of people. And I think that this is pretty telling for why, because people were split 49. 49 on whether or not she is sincere in her proposals or if she's just doing it for politics. And there is a huge gender split, especially when it comes to white women with college degrees. 67% of them say that she's sincere and that she's going to intends that she intends to follow through on these proposals. 67% of white men without college degrees said the opposite. So we see a big gender divide here. It continues to persist across a lot of different questions. And I think that this question in particular tells you a little bit about men in this election and what they think of women leadership.

[Susan Davis]

And what did the poll tell you about how they view Trump's ability to stick to his commitments?

[Domenico Montanaro]

They certainly believe that Trump is more likely to follow through on his commitments. But I will say it doesn't necessarily mean that people are intending to vote for him. I mean, 55% said that they think that he is genuine in wanting to follow through on some of his commitments. But a lot of people think those are fairly controversial and very draconian. And that's why you only have 47% saying that they're actually going to vote for him.

[Susan Davis]

I also think, and Mara, we were talking about this before the podcast, that, yes, the polls look really close now, but what seems like a really close race might not ultimately turn out to be that way because of something called the margin of error.

[Mara Liasson]

That's right. I feel every election is like a civics lesson. We get to learn something that we didn't know before about how we elect Presidents. Back in 2000, we learned that, guess what? The guy with fewer votes can be the winner. And then a whole new crop of voters learned that again in 2016. They electoral college and the popular vote sometimes diverge, and we don't elect our presidents by popular vote. Then we learned a different lesson in 2020 about something called the red mirage and the blue wave, which just simply means that all votes are not counted simultaneously, and the person who looks like they're ahead on election night might not look like they're ahead three days later. So I want to nominate the 2024 civics lesson, something we all learned this year, which is, as you said, the margin of error. These polls have been so close, they're within what we call the margin of error, which means that they could be wrong by four or three or five points in either direction, which means polls don't really tell you that much when the race is this close.

[Domenico Montanaro]

That's exactly right. I always say that I don't really think that horse race polls are the best use of polls because, you know, they're not intended to be that specific or predictive. When they're best used is to look at issues and attitudes over time and when the middle moves by a significant portion. And that's just not happening in this election. And that's why I keep telling people the only thing you really need to know is that it's close. And I think that the other thing that people should remember is that late deciders are crucial here and could be very important. And, you know, the Harris campaign, for what it's worth, is confident they're feeling more so today than they did a week ago, that they're gaining with some of those late deciders. But who knows? We'll find out when the votes are counted.

[Susan Davis]

I also would put it to you both that this has been a historic and unforgettable election in many reasons. But not too long ago, Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee, and the polling trajectory was going in a very negative way for Democrats before he dropped out. To both of you, do you think it's fair to say that Kamala Harris, at a minimum, has at least made up the ground that Joe Biden was losing. It's unclear if she ultimately wins this election, but Democrats are probably in a better footing today than if they would have stuck with Joe Biden.

[Mara Liasson]

No doubt. Absolutely. I totally agree with that. I mean, he was they were Republicans were talking about a landslide. Remember the mood in Milwaukee? They had it in the bag. They were going to take everything. And then she closed the gap. She hasn't been able to pull ahead with a lead outside the margin of error, but neither is he.

[Domenico Montanaro]

There's been one political earthquake in this race, and that's been Kamala Harris getting in. You know, the trend line was certainly heading in the opposite direction for Biden and Democrats after Biden's disastrous debate back in June. And when Harris got in, all of that flipped. It flipped nationally, it flipped in all of the swing states. And like Mara said, she has not been able to, you know, continue that rise, especially after this month of a barrage of negative attacks from Trump and highlighting her past comments and trying to frame her as a San Francisco liberal and all of that. And people are fairly locked in to where they are.

[Susan Davis]

All right. Let's take a quick break and more on this when we get back.

[Mara Liasson]

The Code Switch team spent Election Day talking to folks about how the outcome might impact them. It's a time capsule of people's hopes and fears before they knew the results. One way or another, there's a change coming.

[Domenico Montanaro]

I wanted to vote for Trump, but.

[Susan Davis]

I voted for her.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Gays for Trump.

[Mara Liasson]

I cried this morning. I've been crying on and off.

[Susan Davis]

I'm terrified.

[Mara Liasson]

Listen to Code Switch, the podcast about race and identity from npr.

[Domenico Montanaro]

If you need a moment to catch your breath and calm your nerves, listen to the latest All Songs Considered from NPR Music. We've got an all new mix of songs to slow the blood and recalibrate your day. Plus reflections on gratitude, joy and the power of kindness. Listen to new episodes of All Songs Considered every Tuesday. Wherever you get podcasts, NPR brings you.

[Susan Davis]

The updates you need on the day's biggest headlines.

[Domenico Montanaro]

The Senate narrowly passed the debt ceiling bill that will prevent the country from.

[Mara Liasson]

Defaulting on its loans.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Stories from across the world. Knowing how to forage and to live.

[Mara Liasson]

With the land is integral to anise.

[Susan Davis]

Culture and down your block. From CPR News, this is Colorado Matters and you can find all of that.

[Mara Liasson]

And more in your pocket. Download the NPR app today.

[Susan Davis]

And we're back. And now we won't know for sure what's mattered until our friends at the Associated Press have made a race call. But I'm curious what issues you think have been the most consequential in this race? Obviously, Mara, you already spoke about the economy. Voters have told us over and over and over again that's their number one issue, although that can sometimes be a proxy for other issues. But I would first float to both of you how much you think abortion politics are ultimately going to be decisive in 2024.

[Mara Liasson]

I think it's a huge issue. It's almost as good for the Democrats as immigration is for Republicans. But it's not a silver bullet. What we see, especially in states like Arizona, where there's an abortion rights referendum on the ballot, it's going to pass by curvature of the earth. But Kamala Harris is not reaping the benefits. In other words, there are a lot of women out there, a lot of Republican women, who are going to vote for abortion rights and turn around and vote for Donald Trump for president.

[Domenico Montanaro]

I think that's true. And I think that when we look at our poll, for example, you know, abortion rights is a little bit lower on the list of priorities that people have. They say when they're going to go into the ballot box. But one thing that I really wanted to test was just how salient this issue is beyond something like inflation, because the top two issues that we surveyed on that people said that they were most concerned about were preserving democracy, which might be why you hear Kamala Harris, you know, making the closing argument that she is, as well as, of course, the economy and inflation, abortion rights is further down below immigration. But when you ask it as a second choice and ask people what their second choice is, that really, really pops abortion rights for Democrats in particular. And I think it shows you the depth of what this issue means. And I don't necessarily think of it just as, quote, unquote, abortion rights, but really women's reproductive rights, because we've seen so many women unfortunately caught up in, you know, not being able to get miscarriage care, because so much of what is involved with miscarriage care is also involved with what Republicans would see as dealing with abortions. So, you know, I think that that's a huge issue and why you see such a divide about with women feeling like this is a hugely important issue. And I do think for a lot of Democratic men as well.

[Susan Davis]

But also, Domenico, you mentioned that democracy and upholding democracy is a top issue of concern for voters. I think we need to dig into that a little bit more because I think it means different things to different voters when they're talking about protecting democracy in this election.

[Domenico Montanaro]

It does. But I thought it was fascinating that 3 in 10 voters said that preserving democracy was top on their list. And that included a significant percentage of independents. The same three in 10, about half of Democrats said that preserving democracy was their top issue, but so did three in 10 independents. And that's pretty critical. I mean, especially considering that Republicans were much further off saying that they cared more about inflation and immigration and way less about preserving democracy. But you see where and why Kamala Harris is making the appeal she's making in these last few days when it comes to preserving democracy. Because that I think that there's not a single issue that shows just how bright the line is between Harris and Trump.

[Mara Liasson]

Are you saying that's when she tries to appeal to Nikki Haley voters or independent voters with talking about January 6th or the fact that he wouldn't accept the results of the election? That's what she has in mind. Those voters care about this.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah. And I think that that shows up in the poll too, when you look at not just how many Republicans she's winning, because it's not that many. It's like 6% of Republicans. But when you look at independent women who might be leaning Republican. Right. Because there's a lot of independents who used to be Republicans who now identify as independ evidence she's leading with independent women and trailing with independent men. So when she campaigns with Liz Cheney, the former congresswoman from Wyoming, conservative daughter of former Vice president Dick Cheney, that's what this is about.

[Susan Davis]

Can we also talk about some of the issues that maybe I think dominated the year, but I'm not sure are going to ultimately play a big hand in tipping these final undecided voters. Mara, I'm thinking about foreign policy. Things like Ukraine and Israel. I mean, huge global international stories of huge import.

[Domenico Montanaro]

But.

[Susan Davis]

But this didn't feel like a foreign policy election at all.

[Mara Liasson]

No, but I think it matters around the edges. One thing about this election, you could argue that nothing has mattered. In other words, since Kamala Harris got in and closed the gap, nothing has changed. This static, super close race, not foreign wars, not the economy, not a decisive debate, but around the edges, on the margins. And that's where this race will be decided. Foreign policy has mattered. I mean, that's why Kamala Harris is struggling with Arab American voters in Michigan because of the war in Gaza. So those things do matter. In a race this close, I would say every little thing matters a lot. Every celebrity endorsement, every gaffe, every hurricane matters.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah. We're gonna have to watch Wayne county in Michigan, because, you know, Dearborn, Michigan, has the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the country, about 100,000 people there. So, you know, you got to remember Hillary Clinton lost Michigan very narrowly. Joe Biden won it by 150,000 votes. You know, losing potentially tens of thousands of voters in one place. That should be going Democratic for the most part, but likely aren't going to this time around. Certainly has a lot of Democrats biting their fingernails.

[Susan Davis]

And, Domenico, I also think, too, all year long, when we've talked about Donald Trump's legal troubles and how often did we say, you know, 34 felony convictions hasn't fundamentally changed the race. Hasn't fundamentally changed the race. But. But if Donald Trump loses, there's also, around the margins, some element of American voters who might not ultimately have wanted to have a president of the United States with felony convictions.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah, And I think that that's partially about democracy. Right. I mean, I think it all falls under that umbrella of Trump, having said nice things about strong men, seemingly wanting to emulate a lot of them and their policies, using this really authoritarian rhetoric in especially recent days and weeks. All of that put together, you know, I think paints a picture for some voters who might have been teetering on the edges about Trump to say, I just can't vote for that guy. At the same time, like Mara said, this is an election where the fundamentals generally are an advantage to Republicans, especially on the economy. Although I will say it's been really fascinating. Our poll had Trump just with a 50 to 49 advantage over Harris when it came to who was better to handle the economy. So the message that she's been able to put out there about what she wants to do specifically has appeared to close the gap with Trump when it comes to the economy.

[Susan Davis]

All right, last pod before Election Day. What is your final thought before we start counting the vote?

[Domenico Montanaro]

I do think we need to continue to preach patience here, because in 2020, remember, the elections were close in many of those swing states, and the race was not called until Saturday for the presidential election. Now, it's very possible, as sue says, that it's done earlier, but it's going to depend on whether or not the margins are further apart and the House don't expect it to be called for a while.

[Susan Davis]

Domenico, I just feel like you and I are often the cynical, negative downers on the podcast. So I'm trying to end this election on, like, a really hopeful, optimistic, maybe we'll know really soon, and it'll all be clear. We might just let me have that.

[Domenico Montanaro]

It might all be perfect.

[Susan Davis]

It might all be perfect. All right. And a reminder, we're going to be live on air tomorrow night. You can listen in the NPR app [e-mail] or, of course, on the radio on your local NPR member station. And a reminder again, we'll have a podcast for you sometime overnight. Before we go, I just want to say a heartfelt thank you to both you, Mara and Domenico, who have been my spiritual guides through much of the year, and and to all of our listeners who have made it on this ride with us. It has been one for the books. And if you want to support this work, you can pitch in four bucks a month at plus.NPR.org politics you get some perks, but really, it's just a way to help us keep doing this work and making it available for free to anyone who needs it. We'll drop a link in the show notes, so please consider clicking through once this episode ends. All right. That is it for us today. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics.

[Domenico Montanaro]

I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

[Mara Liasson]

And I'm Mara Liasson. And in addition to being part of the NPR Outer Borough Caucus with Domenico, I am the senior national political correspondent.

[Susan Davis]

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.