Mission Accomplished? What We Know About The State of Iran's Nuclear Program.

Summary

The NPR Politics Podcast: "Mission Accomplished? What We Know About The State of Iran's Nuclear Program"

Release Date: June 24, 2025

In this episode of The NPR Politics Podcast, host Tamara Keith and co-host Claudia Grisales delve into the recent military actions against Iran's nuclear facilities, exploring the efficacy of these strikes and the ensuing political ramifications. Joining them is Jeff Brumfield, NPR’s senior science editor and correspondent, who provides expert analysis on the state of Iran's nuclear program post-operation.

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Operation Midnight Hammer: Assessing the Strikes

The episode opens with a discussion of Operation Midnight Hammer, a significant military campaign aimed at crippling Iran's nuclear capabilities. Jeff Brumfield details the operation:

Jeff Brumfield [02:48]: "Operation Midnight Hammer was conducted by a group of B2 bombers that flew from Missouri directly to Iran, striking two key uranium enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordo using 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs. Additionally, a submarine-launched cruise missile targeted the Isfahan facility, known for its uranium research."

Brumfield emphasizes that while the strikes were precise and likely inflicted substantial damage, declaring the mission a complete success remains premature. He notes:

Jeff Brumfield [04:11]: "They definitely hit their targets. But there's a lot we don't know... The uranium is very mobile and can be transported easily, which raises concerns about what remains of Iran's stockpiles."

Evaluating the Impact on Iran's Nuclear Program

Despite President Trump’s confident assertion of victory, experts suggest a more nuanced reality. Brumfield conveys skepticism regarding the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear ambitions:

Jeff Brumfield [05:36]: "The existing centrifuges have been badly damaged or destroyed. While Iran cannot rapidly replace them, the enriched uranium stockpiled—around 60%—is dangerously close to weapon grade, posing a significant threat if reactivated."

He further explains that the international monitoring of Iran’s nuclear activities has diminished, making it challenging to assess the full extent of the damage and potential recovery of Iran’s program.

Political Reactions: A Divided Congress

The episode transitions to the political fallout from the strikes, focusing on reactions within Congress.

Republican Response

Initially, Republicans overwhelmingly supported President Trump’s decision, showcasing unity within the party. However, as developments unfolded, particularly with the announcement of a tentative ceasefire, some shifts emerged:

Claudia Grisales [10:22]: "Republicans remain largely supportive of the president, but they're on edge regarding the next steps. Concerns persist about the ceasefire holding and what actions should follow."

Notably, figures like Thomas Massie initially pushed for stricter legislative oversight through the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) but withdrew support after the ceasefire was announced. Contrarily, Marjorie Taylor Greene expressed apprehension over the strikes, emphasizing an "America first" approach.

Democratic Response

Democrats have been more critical, advocating for increased Congressional oversight. Claudia Grisales points out the delayed and cautious nature of their response:

Claudia Grisales [13:41]: "Democratic leaders were slow to respond initially but have unified in recent days, pushing for the president to seek Congressional authorization for such military actions."

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer voiced strong dissatisfaction, demanding transparency:

Donald Trump [14:31]: "Senators deserve full transparency. There is a legal obligation for the administration to inform Congress about precisely what is happening."

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Congressional Authority and War Powers

A pivotal theme of the episode revolves around the constitutional war powers vested in Congress. Despite historical precedents favoring executive action, recent actions have seen a trend towards presidential autonomy in military decisions.

Claudia Grisales [15:25]: "Senator Lindsey Graham highlighted that the overwhelming norm is for the president to lead military actions without consulting Congress, reflecting Congress's surrender of control to the executive branch."

The discussion underscores the ongoing debate over the AUMF, with some Republicans and Democrats seeking to reassert Congressional authority over military engagements.

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Conclusion: A Fragile Ceasefire and Uncertain Future

As the episode wraps up, Jeff Brumfield advocates for renewed diplomatic efforts:

Jeff Brumfield [07:35]: "The only way to ensure Iran doesn't restart its nuclear weapons program is to negotiate a deal that provides insight into their remaining capabilities. This approach has not been substantially pursued by the current administration."

The tentative ceasefire between Iran and Israel introduces a fragile peace, but uncertainties regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities and Congressional oversight remain pressing concerns.

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Key Takeaways

• Operation Midnight Hammer successfully targeted key Iranian nuclear facilities but did not entirely eliminate Iran's nuclear threat.
• Iran's Enriched Uranium remains a critical concern, with the potential for it to be converted back into weapon-grade material.
• Republican Support for President Trump is strong but nuanced, with some internal debates over Congressional oversight.
• Democrats are pushing for greater transparency and a return to Congressional authority in military decisions.
• The Fragile Ceasefire underscores the ongoing volatility in Middle Eastern geopolitics and the necessity for diplomatic engagement.

This episode provides a comprehensive examination of the complexities surrounding Iran's nuclear program, the mixed efficacy of military interventions, and the intricate political dynamics within the United States Congress.

Transcript

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[Brad Reynolds]

Hi, this is Brad Reynolds from Cordova, Alaska. I'm currently rolling around in my fishing vessel in the North Pacific, enduring yet another easterly blow. But I'm hoping to land a few more Copper river salmon before this fishing period is over. This podcast was recorded on Tuesday, June.

[Tamara Keith]

24Th at 1:09pm Eastern Time.

[Brad Reynolds]

Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but hopefully I will be snug, secure and in Anchorage enjoying a cup of coffee, the kind that doesn't go flying across the cabin. Enjoy the show.

[Claudia Grisales]

Wow.

[Tamara Keith]

The best part about this is that even before he said he was on a boat, it just sounded like he was on a boat. I felt like I was there.

[Claudia Grisales]

I wish I was there. It's too hot here. I'd like to be there.

[Tamara Keith]

Seriously. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

[Claudia Grisales]

And I'm Claudia Grizales. I cover Congress.

[Tamara Keith]

We've also got NPR senior science editor and correspondent Jeff Brumfield with us. Hi, Jeff.

[Jeff Brumfield]

Hi there.

[Tamara Keith]

President Trump took another victory lap this morning after this weekend's strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities.

[Donald Trump]

Iran will never rebuild its nuclear from there. Absolutely not. That place is under rock. That place is demolished. The B2 pilots did their job. They did it better than anybody could even imagine.

[Tamara Keith]

But experts say when it comes to Iran's nuclear program, it's too early to declare mission accomplished. Today we're going to break down what we know about how successful the strikes were and talk about the fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel that was announced last night. So, Jeff, let's start with you. The goal of Operation Midnight Hammer was to destroy Iran's nuclear program. President Trump said it was obliterated. What do you know about how successful it was?

[Jeff Brumfield]

Well, I think we can say that it definitely set the program back and probably set it back quite a bit. So if we talk about Operation Midnight Hammer, this was a group of B2 bombers that flew from Missouri 18 hours direct to Iran. And the bombers actually struck two facilities. One was a uranium enrichment site at Natanz, and the other one was the main target at Fordo. This was a uranium enrichment site deep inside a mountain. The Israelis could not reach it with their own weapons. And so these bombers used these 30,000 pound bunker buster bombs, tried to punch through the rock. And as far as we can tell, they probably did do quite a bit of damage to that site. Now, a submarine also launched cruise missiles as part of Operation Midnight Hammer that hit a third site. Those missiles struck a place called Isfahan that has a lot of uranium research that goes on there. And so taken together, those three strikes and the Israeli strikes that have been going on for the past, you know, almost two weeks now have done considerable damage to Iran's program. But I wouldn't say it's exactly mission accomplished.

[Tamara Keith]

Yeah. So is it fair to say that these strikes hit their targets, but we don't know if they met their objectives?

[Jeff Brumfield]

Yeah, I think that's exactly the right way to say it. They definitely hit their targets. But there's a lot we don't know, not just about the uranium, but about various parts of Iran's nuclear program. So I spoke to Cori Hinderstein, she's a vice president at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and here's what she had to say.

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I would not consider the nuclear program destroyed.

[Lauren Schmies]

I would agree that it has been.

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Set back, but by how much and.

[Claudia Grisales]

With what kind of permanence I think.

[NPR Sponsor]

Is a big question mark.

[Jeff Brumfield]

And Henderson was actually in charge of monitoring Iran's program under the Biden administration. And so she says we just don't know much because partially the international monitors that happened there have all been pulled out. And partially these. These places are destroyed, but presumably not completely destroyed. And so there may be equipment there. You know, there's also these stocks of highly enriched uranium. This stuff is very mobile. You know, it can be taken out of these facilities. It can be put into cars. It's thought that maybe around 10 vehicles would be all it takes to move this stuff around. And this uranium is not quite bomb grade, but it's very, very close. And Iran has enough for nine or ten weapons. So this stuff is still out there somewhere. We don't know if it's been destroyed along with other parts of Iran's program.

[Claudia Grisales]

So, Jeff, you're saying that this enriched uranium can be moved relatively easily. So do we know that's what's happened here?

[Jeff Brumfield]

Well, let me tell you what we know. We know that there were trucks at the two sites where we think the enriched uranium was being stored in the days before the American strike. So we know that Iran was moving something around, but we don't know exactly what. There is satellite imagery that shows us that. The other thing we know is that Iran has stopped telling the international watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, where its equipment and uranium is. They have informed them that they have taken these measures. They may or may not be moving it. So the bottom line is there's evidence that they probably took steps to secure the stuff and move it, but we don't know if they did for sure, and we certainly don't know where they took it.

[Claudia Grisales]

So it's possible that Iran still has this enriched uranium stockpiled somewhere, but. But do they have the capability now to keep enriching it?

[Jeff Brumfield]

Right. So the stockpile they have right now is about 60% enriched, which is actually very, very close to bomb grade, much closer than you might think. The question is, can they put that uranium back into centrifuges, the machines they use to enrich it, and can they enrich it further? And again, we don't know. So we know Iran has the ability to manufacture centrifuges, but we don't know how many they've made or where they might be stor or, you know, if they can pull them out and set them up somewhere. We just don't know. Now, I think it's fair to say, based on the evidence we have, that the existing centrifuges have been badly damaged or destroyed. I don't think Iran could do this overnight, but could they get this material to weapons grade if they really wanted to? I think the answer is perhaps, yeah.

[Tamara Keith]

President Trump, however, is very confident and proceeding with policy as if Iran is no longer a nuclear threat. He appears to be arguing that that Iran is sort of welcomed back into the world because there's now a ceasefire, as tenuous as it may be.

[Jeff Brumfield]

One of the really interesting things that I've been hearing today and talking to people who know about Iran's program, is that if you really do want to stop it, guess what, you have to go back to negotiations now with Iran and try and reach some sort of deal where you have some insight into what they have left and what they're going to do with it. And so far, it doesn't seem like that's really been talked about much within the administration. But I've been speaking to experts, both who've served under Trump and under Obama and Biden, and they all say the same thing. The only way to ensure Iran doesn't start for a bomb again is to actually go back and negotiate now that you've done these strikes.

[Tamara Keith]

All right. Well, we're going to take a quick break, and we'll have more on reaction from Congress when we get back.

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[Lauren Schmies]

You're listening to the NPR Network.

[Claudia Grisales]

Live from NPR News.

[Tamara Keith]

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[Tamara Keith]

And we're back. And, Claudia, you've been tracking the reaction to all of this from Capitol Hill, going back to the US Strikes on Iran, then Iran's response. Now the news of a tentative ceasefire, which, depending on the moment, either seems like it's holding or seems like it's in trouble. Let's start with Republicans. What are you hearing from them?

[Claudia Grisales]

Right. It's very tentative now. And we've seen basically a response that is moving with each of these shifts in terms of where Israel and Iran is at the moment. For example, right after the strikes, we saw Republicans overwhelmingly supportive of the president. Again, this is the most united Trump has been with Republicans in Congress. So they're largely backing anything he's doing at this stage, even if there's some disagreements on whether he should consult Congress or get authorization from Congress. Now, as we move further into this week, for example, with the ceasefire, Congress was supposed to receive briefings today on Iran, and they were canceled for the Senate and the House. We've seen a range of reactions there. I talked to Chairman Roger Wicker of the Senate Armed Services Committee. This is a Republican, and he. He said he was disappointed. Right now, we are understanding that it will be moved to later in the week. But there are plenty of questions of where things stand right now and what I've heard from sources. There's concerns that the situation is still very hot. It's not clear the ceasefire is going to hold. And so clearly, Republicans remain supportive of the president, but they're also on edge in terms of what are the next steps.

[Tamara Keith]

Yeah. And just in terms of Republicans, it's been fascinating to watch the evolution. There are certainly some MAGA Republicans who were pretty concerned that President Trump had even authorized these strikes to go forward. Some of them have evolved to being very happy with how it turned out.

[Claudia Grisales]

Right, exactly. Because we did see Republicans starting to step out and raise concerns about Trump's decision to move ahead with these strikes. And we saw, for example, Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican, he wanted to push forward a of legislation known as aumf. This is the Authorization for Use of Military Force. This has been an ongoing debate for decades here in terms of forcing the president to come to Congress before such strikes happen. But Massie backed off after word of this ceasefire came out. We know Democrats, for example, in the House are pursuing their own AUMF legislation. They want to vote in the House. Now, on the Senate side, we may see that happen. Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia is pushing that. He has Republicans who have said they will support him. So it's possible they're looking at a vote on this later this week on Thursday. But when we look at dissenters, for example, Marjorie Taylor Greene, who was raising concern yesterday that the efforts of the strikes and what could come next really flew in the face of America first. And we've seen others say, I'm worried about the regime change language, such as Warren Davidson of Ohio in the House. But now, again, that we have the ceasefire, we're seeing Republicans largely step back. They want to see how this plays out, and they're hoping it holds.

[Jeff Brumfield]

Claudia, what about the Democrats? I mean, have they sort of found a unified way to talk about what's been happening?

[Claudia Grisales]

Yeah, you could tell this weekend that they were struggling. They were slow to come out with a statement. I mean, one of the first things we do is we look for reactions when we have major events like this. And there were plenty from Republicans supporting the president, but it took a while to hear from Democratic leaders and other Democrats. It's a tough issue to navigate because they don't want to be in a position where they're defending Iran. But at the same time, they want to push for the president to come to Congress for consultation, for permission to do these kind of strikes. So they have unified more in the last couple days. For example, we saw Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer at the last minute called an impromptu press conference with reporters and he was furious. Here's what he said.

[Donald Trump]

Senators deserve full transparency. There is a legal obligation for the administration to inform Congress about precisely what is happening. What are they afraid of?

[Tamara Keith]

So, Claudia, Congress in the Constitution has the war powers. Congress is supposed to be the one that declares war. But this just has has not happened in recent memory. This is one of the many roles that Congress has essentially just punted to the executive. And they've been unable, despite some people like Senator Tim Kaine who you mentioned, they've been unable to pass another authorization of the use of military force since the Iraq war. Is there any chance that that changes or what could Congress's role be here if they aren't willing to assert their power?

[Claudia Grisales]

Right. This morning we heard from Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina who talked about exactly that. And he said basically the overwhelming way of doing business in America is for the president to act to use military force. So basically making that point that that authorization that's been a desire for many members here is a thing of the past. And he talked about as a body in the last 250 years, almost every time it's the president leading that military action, there is no consultation with Congress. So it really is also another reminder of Congress kind of surrendering that control to the president. Republican led chambers doing this and being so closely aligned with the president and allowing him to take the lead on such massive decisions like this.

[Tamara Keith]

Well, let's leave it there for today. Jeff, thanks so much for joining us.

[Jeff Brumfield]

You're welcome.

[Tamara Keith]

I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

[Claudia Grisales]

And I'm Claudia Grisales. I cover Congress.

[Tamara Keith]

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

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