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[00:01]
A
This week on Up First, a high stakes funding fight over ICE tactics. Can Democrats negotiate any real change, or will the Trump administration refuse to budge? Get up, get informed and get on with your morning. With up first, the top three stories you need to start your day, listen on the NPR app or wherever you get podcasts.
[00:27]
B
Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast for Thursday, February, February. It's the hardest word of the year. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast for Thursday, February 5, 2026. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.
[00:41]
C
I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics.
[00:43]
A
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
[00:46]
B
Today on the show, we have a new NPR PBS News Marist Poll, and it finds a significant share of Americans say ice, Immigration and Customs Enforcement has gone too far. Domenico, after the past month of intense focus on ICE tactics and alarming video out of Minnesota, maybe it doesn't come as a total surprise, but help us understand the numbers.
[01:08]
A
Yeah, the 65% in this poll who say that ICE has gone too far is up 11 points since last summer. So a big reason has been everything that we've seen on tv, you know, the two American citizens who've been killed just in the past few weeks over this. And really the biggest movement has been with independents and Democrats by double digits. They've moved to saying that ISIS gone too far. We take Republicans out of it. It's just huge numbers. I mean, 93% of Democrats, not surprising. Right. But also 71% of independents who Trump did fairly well with in the 2024 election, saying that they think ICE has gone too far.
[01:45]
C
Observing independent voters sort of talk about immigration is interesting because by and large, I have heard independent voters say, especially swing voters say like closing the border in general is something that they approve of. But it is this extra element of ICE and the killings we've been seeing and what's been going on in Minneapolis been obviously the big impetus for this change. I think if Trump had just sort of stayed focused on the border, this would be a different conversation. But it's all this extra stuff that's been going on that from what I'm observing is pushing a lot of independent voters.
[02:14]
A
And it irritates Trump, too, that the fact that the narrative has gone toward ISIS tactics rather than talking about the border. We've heard that from a lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill who continue to talk about that, but it's of their own making, frankly. I mean, that's the reason people are focused on it is because they're seeing what they're seeing on tv, and you have two Americans killed in these kinds of law enforcement activities, activities. It's gonna get a lot of attention.
[02:35]
B
Another group of voters that President Trump made a decent amount of progress with in 2024 was Latino voters. Where do they come down on this?
[02:44]
A
Well, overall, Latino voters have really soured on President Trump. And we've seen that over lots of polls over several months. You know, this is a group that Trump did better than any Republican president in history with Latino voters, more 46% of Latino voters, according to exit polls. So setting that as the baseline, the fact that only 38 in this poll approve of the job that Trump is doing. Some 70% of Latinos disagree with how ICE is conducting their enforcement activities, saying that they think that ICE has gone too far, that they disapprove of ICE's tactics. Look, far and away, the economy, prices have been the thing that Latino voters have said that they care most about. And on that too, you have a majority of people overall saying that they think that the Trump administration should be focused on lowering prices and a plurality of Latinos as well.
[03:38]
C
One small thing on Latinos as well is that, I mean, obviously ICE tactics are part of this. But there's a compounding issue with a lot of Latino communities right now. A lot of, like, immigrants from different countries have lost their temporary protected status in the past several months. And that has really made Latino. Pollsters have told me that has really frustrated a lot of Latino voters who feel like they did things the right way and they have legal status. And that has, you know, just been one of the many things that has made these communities, like, really upset. Obviously someone with a temporary protected status wouldn't be voting like in the last election, for example. But these are families that have mixed status. A lot of the time. They like someone in their family has temporary protected status and they're a voter because they were, you know, born here. And so the assumption that a lot of Latino voters came in who voted for Donald Trump had for a long time was like, this would not touch.
[04:26]
A
Me personally, and that he would focus on criminals. I mean, I think that that was the big thing. And, you know, we've obviously talked a lot about second generation, third generation Latinos who say that they've done it the right way, as Ashley was talking about, and they're okay with immigration enforcement. But, you know, it's like some Republican members of Congress have said, Latino Republican members of Congress have said that, you know, he should be going after the gangsters. Not the gardeners. You know, in the poll, we also found that 62% of people say that ISIS tactics have made Americans less safe.
[04:57]
B
I do want to ask you about Republicans. We have talked many times on this podcast about President Trump's titanium piece of the electoral pie. We've been talking about it for nine years on this podcast. Any change there? How do Republicans feel about how ICE is doing?
[05:12]
A
Is there something stronger than titanium? Is it like diamond, maybe? I feel like it's like a diamond slice of the pie. Maybe we'll call it that. It's not a gold leaf slice of the pie, because that can chip off. But Dimon doesn't, right? I mean, 85% of Republicans approve of the job that Trump is doing. 80% approve of how he's handling the economy. Three quarters approve of how he's handling foreign policy. 77% think that ICE is making Americans safer, including 52% who say much more safe. 75% said demonstrators. Protesters are people who are acting mostly unlawfully. 66% think tariffs are helping the economy. A strong majority don't think the president needs to consult with Congress before taking military action. Oh, and by the way, in our poll, strong majorities of Democrats and Independents say the complete opposite of those things.
[06:02]
B
This is polarization at work.
[06:04]
A
It's really quite something. But look, I think in talking about Republicans, they are where they are, right? And I think that maybe we can put to rest this idea that the base Trump voters are gonna chip away from Trump because of this thing. The fact is, Trump. Trump's base is as locked in as it can be. And I think the reason is it isn't about all these other things. It's not about economic anxiety. It's not about ISIS tactics. It's about culture. And for them, immigration enforcement is still the number one thing that they're most concerned about. Even though 54% of people in our poll said that lowering prices should be Trump's top priority. And far and away the highest, a plurality of Republicans said immigration should be Trump's top priority.
[06:51]
C
It's also tribalism, right? If you're a Republican, this is your identity, right? Like, disagreeing with Trump means that you are not a real Republican, and that has been that way for a long time. And there's also something psychologically happening that I have observed in some Trump voters, which is, like, you have to basically defend him because you're defending yourself a lot. A lot of the time, and that is just really hard to sort of break out of. I've watched this in focus groups like voters say, look, I have people in my family who don't like Trump. And every single time something happens that they don't like that Trump did, I'm not just defending him. I have to defend myself and my vote. And that is just like a really hard habit to break.
[07:27]
A
Yeah, they bought the hat, they bought the T shirt, and they're not giving it back. But what has happened is that his voting coalition has frayed. Right. When we talked about independents, we talk about Latinos, voters under 30. Those are three groups where while Trump didn't win, those groups, they voted in pretty substantial numbers for him in 2024, helped him over the finish line according to exit polls, because of the economy. And they have just completely abandoned Trump at this point, According to the polls.
[08:00]
B
Yeah, I mean, he would not have won without them.
[08:03]
A
Right.
[08:03]
B
Now, I wanna go back to ICE and the other side of this, the protesters. What does the poll say about how people feel about those who are protesting ICE and ICE tactics? Yeah.
[08:16]
A
I mean, almost six in ten said that the demonstrations are mostly legitimate as opposed to people acting unlawfully. Only 40% said that. And again, another place where we're see huge polarization on this question when you have 59%, you're talking about 85% of Democrats who feel these are mostly legitimate protests, 65% of independents, by the way. But guess what? 75% of Republicans say that these are people who are mostly acting unlawfully. And I think it just shows you that Republicans in this poll, question after question, really stand out like a sore thumb. And independents on every single question, I went through to check that every single question side with Democrats and. And in many cases, overwhelmingly.
[08:58]
B
All right, well, we are going to take a quick break and we will be back with more.
[09:02]
C
Valentine's Day is coming up, and the perfect gift for the NPR lover in your life is waiting at the NPR shop. From cozy sweaters and mugs made for slow mornings to our tiny desk hoodie, there's something for every NPR fan. Each purchase supports public media and the journalism you love. Find something meaningful@shopnpr.org.
[09:24]
B
On NPR's Wildcard podcast. Oprah on the art of being alone. Are you good at being alone? Oh, my God, I'm a master at it.
[09:33]
A
Tell me more.
[09:35]
B
I cherish it.
[09:36]
A
I revel in it. I can't wait to be alone.
[09:40]
B
Watch or listen to that wildcard conversation on the NPR app or on YouTube @NPRWildcard. This is Tanya Mosley, co host of Fresh Air. You'll see your favorite actors, directors and comedians on late night TV shows or YouTube. But what you get with FRESH Air is a deep dive. Spend some quality time with people like Billie Eilish Questlove, Ariana Grande, Stephen Colbert, and so many more. We ask questions you won't hear asked anywhere else. Listen to the Fresh Air podcast from NPR and whyy. And we're back. And we've been talking about the results of a new NPR PBS News Marist poll, Domenico. The poll gives us another reading on President Trump's approval rating overall. How do people think he's doing?
[10:31]
A
He's not doing well. 39% approve of the job that Trump is doing. Since November, Trump has been below 40 in the Marist poll. And, you know, I think that it shows you. Even though Trump has been boasting about how he's gonna sue the pollsters, about how, you know, people are all in favor of these tactics on ice, all this boasting that they're doing in social media, in these speeches, they know inside the White House that he's in a really vulnerable position. And that's why you've seen some of the adjustments that we've seen.
[11:01]
B
Yeah. So the economy is quite often the top issue for voters. What does this poll show about how President Trump is faring on the economy?
[11:12]
A
Yeah, I mean, look, lowering prices still continues to be the thing that people say should be the Trump administration's top priority right now. Despite all of the headlines being about ICE or these threats that he's made about Greenland, the action he took in Venezuela, 54% in this poll said that lowering prices should be the top priority for the Trump administration. Controlling immigration is second at 22%. So much further down the list. Obviously, there's a partisan split here which we talked a little bit about. But 70% of Democrats and 58% of independents say focus on lowering prices. 44% of Republicans say controlling immigration should be the top priority, compared to 32% of Republicans who say it should be lowering prices. So that's why I think you see Trump continuing to talk about immigration like it's the most important thing, because he's in his own information silo. He watches Fox News, he watches conservative media, and that's where he thinks that's where all people are and that's how they feel about things. But really, people are saying lower prices, that's the most important thing.
[12:18]
B
Yeah. And Ashley, you mentioned this focus group before that you monitored. I am remembering a lot of people talking about the economy and affordability.
[12:27]
C
Yeah. I mean, this is probably the thing that came up the most, which is even when voters are talking about things like ice and some of the foreign policy stuff involving Greenland and Venezuela, like, there's two things going on here, which is, one, they think Trump is really distracted. A lot of independent voters in swing voters say they voted for Trump because of the economy and they wanted to see lower prices, and they're not seeing that. Like, their material reality has not changed enough since Trump has been in office. And two, they actually think that all the chaos being created by situations like what's happening in Minnesota and Venezuela are making them more anxious about the economy. I mean, you wouldn't think, like, the two things would be connected, but I heard a voter say, like, look, I just don't know what's gonna happen the next day. So, you know, that makes me think, like, political upheaval could eventually become economic upheaval, economic problems. So it is a problem for Trump to continue to have. First of all, all these other big things be in the news, and people think he's not working on the economy. But two, chaos in general doesn't seem to help him at all as well.
[13:25]
A
And here's the bigger problem. When he does work on the economy, his policies are not popular. Tariffs are his main lever for trying to affect the economy, bring in revenue, try to change policies of other countries. And yet, when we asked in this poll whether or not tariffs hurt or help the economy, by a 56 to 31% margin, people said tariffs hurt the economy. 59% of people disapprove of the job Trump is doing on the economy. That is a huge, huge number and a huge switch from the first term, when the economy and immigration were two things that were big advantages for him that have now completely flipped.
[14:06]
B
I want to turn to another finding in the poll that I found very interesting related to foreign policy. You know, the President has spent so much time on foreign policy, even just like, in the last 24 hours, he's saying that Iran should be very worried. And before that, we're talking about Venezuela, and in between, we were talking about Greenland, and it's only been a month into this year. So what do voters say about all this?
[14:27]
A
Well, 56% of people disapprove of the job he's doing on foreign policy. I mean, it's a huge number also. And when it comes to things like Greenland, you know, 2/3 of people oppose the possibility of taking control of Greenland. The only outlier here are Republicans.
[14:44]
B
Yeah, what do they say?
[14:45]
A
Almost 7 in 10 Republicans are okay with taking control of Greenland, which I just found to be super interesting. Two thirds also said that they think the U.S. benefits from its relationship with NATO. And 56% of respondents had a favorable view of that alliance. And, you know, when it, when it comes to things like Venezuela, 72% of people said that the president should have to consult with Congress before taking military action. And again, put Republicans in their own box, all of those things. They side with the president.
[15:13]
C
This is a liability for Trump among independent voters as well. I don't know if you guys remember talking to voters during the election. I heard so many independent voters say, I think I'm gonna vote for Trump because he seems like less of a war hawk than the Harris administration. And I've heard this come up a couple times, which is like, I thought we would be less involved in sort of foreign affairs in Trump 2.0. And it seems right now like the opposite is happening. And I've, you know, I can see a lot of independent voters having a whiplash now and being like, I thought we were getting something totally different when I voted for Trump.
[15:42]
A
Well, yeah, the numbers bear that out. 63% disapprove of Trump's handling of foreign policy.
[15:47]
B
Among independents, I feel like you have just said a lot of numbers and most of them are the same. Like, like there's just like, you know, overall, pretty simple. Republicans love him, Independents and Democrats not happy, and we're in the 60 something percent range of negative on everything.
[16:09]
A
Well, I think what's fascinating to me as somebody who watches these numbers, is one poll is not everything. Trends matter. Multiple polls matter, and multiple polls and all the trends are showing the same thing. And I find it interesting from a messaging standpoint how the White House has tried to say ignore all of that, that we're gonna sue them. They're all wrong. I mean, everyone is wrong. They work very hard, the pollsters, to be able to get good randomized samples of people who represent the entire country. And clearly we're seeing that the Republicans we're getting in our surveys are telling us they love Trump. But there's a big separation between what Trump has seen as his base and who still like everything he's doing, versus those independents and, of course, Democrats who completely feel something differently. And we know the White House is seeing this and understands it because they are making these pivots. I mean, you think about Greenland, but also on ice, right, Tam?
[17:10]
B
Yeah, absolutely. President Trump himself, even in an interview with NBC News, talked about toning things down a bit when it comes to immigration enforcement.
[17:19]
A
I learned that maybe we can use a little bit of a softer touch, but you still have to be tough. These are criminal we're dealing with really hard criminals.
[17:30]
B
And the president's border czar, Tom Homan, did announce a drawdown of about 700 immigration agents from Minnesota this week. That still leaves a lot of them there. So there is an acknowledgement, I think, coming from the White House that they're losing the thread. There's also a very clear acknowledgement that they need to focus more on the economy. And the White House was saying the president's gonna give an economic address every single week. He's gonna travel out into the country and talk about the economy. And he did it a couple of weeks. And I've gotta say, like, those speeches, they were not focused. He talks a lot about how he has no regard for the teleprompter. And that is a thing he thinks that is his gift. He talks about it all the time. But what it means is that it's really hard to tell that he's focusing on the economy because he's focusing on so many other things.
[18:22]
C
I mean, he's also in a particular kind of bind, which is that the chaos has also been kind of the Teflon for the president, which is so much going on, means a lot of stuff doesn't stick to him. But it is a problem when you're trying to message and message things like the economy. When people are being shot in an American city, it is harder to talk about kitchen table issues. So, you know, I think as long as this is what his presidency looks like, the administration, how it functions, it's going to be hard to get messaging to voters about stuff that, that, yeah, they probably care about the most, but it's not gonna seep through.
[18:55]
B
All right. We are gonna leave it there for today. Tomorrow we are going to scoop up all of the other political news from the week. So make sure you don't miss it by hitting the follow button in your favorite podcast app. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.
[19:08]
C
I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics.
[19:10]
A
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
[19:13]
B
And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.
[19:25]
C
2026 marks the 100th anniversary of what.
[19:27]
B
We now celebrate as Black History Month.
[19:30]
C
So on Code Switch, we're reflecting on that journey.
[19:33]
A
Black History Month is a time for people to observe black history as a movement and a legacy that was about correcting the historical record. Listen to NPR's Code Switch podcast on.
[19:45]
B
The NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

Summary7 min read

The NPR Politics Podcast — Detailed Summary

Episode: Most Americans say ICE has ‘gone too far’ in new poll
Date: February 5, 2026
Hosts:

Tamara Keith (B) — White House Correspondent
Ashley Lopez (C) — Politics Reporter
Domenico Montanaro (A) — Senior Political Editor & Correspondent

Main Theme

This episode centers on the findings of a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll indicating that a significant and growing majority of Americans believe Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has “gone too far” in its recent tactics. The hosts dissect the numbers, discuss voter reaction across key demographics (Independents, Latino voters, Republicans), and analyze how these views are shifting the broader political environment, particularly as it affects President Trump and the 2026 agenda.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Surge in Concern Over ICE Tactics

Poll Highlight: 65% of Americans now say ICE has “gone too far,” up 11 points since last summer.

"The 65% in this poll who say that ICE has gone too far is up 11 points since last summer." — Domenico Montanaro (A), 01:07
Recent incidents, especially two American citizens killed in Minnesota, have catalyzed this opinion shift.
Biggest movement: Independents (now 71%) and Democrats (93%) — both up by double digits; Republicans largely unmoved.

2. Impact on Independent and Swing Voters

Independent and swing voters typically approve “closing the border,” but recent events and increased attention on aggressive ICE tactics, not just border policy, are driving their disapproval.

"If Trump had just sort of stayed focused on the border, this would be a different conversation. But it’s all this extra stuff that's been going on..." — Ashley Lopez (C), 01:44
Trump’s frustration stems from the narrative shifting away from border issues to ICE’s conduct.

"It irritates Trump, too, that...the narrative has gone toward ICE's tactics rather than talking about the border." — Domenico Montanaro (A), 02:14

3. Latino Voter Sentiment

Latino support for Trump has sharply declined in tandem with ICE’s aggressive tactics.
- Only 38% of Latino voters now approve of Trump’s performance, down from a record-high 46% in 2024 exit polls.
- 70% of Latinos disapprove of ICE’s current enforcement.
"Latino voters have really soured on President Trump... only 38% in this poll approve of the job that Trump is doing." — Domenico Montanaro (A), 02:43
Loss of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for many immigrants is compounding Latino frustration — even among those who are citizens, due to mixed-status family realities.

"A lot of, like, immigrants from different countries have lost their temporary protected status... that has really frustrated a lot of Latino voters..." — Ashley Lopez (C), 03:37

4. Republican Base Remains Solid

Trump’s core base of Republican voters remains steadfast (“diamond slice”).
- 85% approve of Trump’s job performance;
- 80% approve of his economic leadership;
- 77% think ICE is making Americans safer, with 52% saying “much more safe.”
"Is there something stronger than titanium? Is it like diamond, maybe? I feel like it’s like a diamond slice of the pie." — Domenico Montanaro (A), 05:12
Polarization is stark: majorities of Democrats and Independents stand in strong opposition on these questions.

"This is polarization at work." — Tamara Keith (B), 06:02 "Trump’s base is as locked in as it can be... it's not about economic anxiety. It's not about ICE's tactics. It's about culture." — Domenico Montanaro (A), 06:04

5. Tribalism and Republican “Identity”

Among Republicans, there is an “identity” stake in supporting Trump regardless of actions.

"...you have to basically defend him because you're defending yourself... it is a really hard habit to break." — Ashley Lopez (C), 06:50
The Trump coalition, however, is “fraying” among key groups: Independents, Latinos, and voters under 30 who once helped him over the finish line in 2024 due to economic anxiety.

6. Public Perception of Protesters

Nearly 60% believe ICE demonstrations are “mostly legitimate”;
- 85% of Democrats and 65% of Independents hold this view;
- 75% of Republicans see protesters as “mostly acting unlawfully.”
"Almost six in ten said that the demonstrations are mostly legitimate...85% of Democrats...65% of independents...75% of Republicans say these are people mostly acting unlawfully." — Domenico Montanaro (A), 08:16

7. President Trump’s Overall Approval

Trump’s approval is at a low: only 39%, and consistently under 40% since November.

"He’s not doing well. 39% approve of the job that Trump is doing." — Domenico Montanaro (A), 10:31

8. The Centrality of The Economy

Top Issues (per the poll):
- 54% say “lowering prices” should be Trump’s driving priority.
- Only 22% prioritize controlling immigration.
- This split is even more dramatic among Democrats and Independents.
"...lowering prices still continues to be the thing that people say should be the Trump administration's top priority right now." — Domenico Montanaro (A), 11:11
Even Trump’s economic policies (notably tariffs) are unpopular—56% believe tariffs hurt the economy (59% disapprove of his economic stewardship).
Chaotic foreign and domestic events are increasing economic anxiety among swing and independent voters.

"A lot of independent voters...wanted to see lower prices, and they’re not seeing that. Their material reality has not changed." — Ashley Lopez (C), 12:26 "When he does work on the economy, his policies are not popular." — Domenico Montanaro (A), 13:25

9. Foreign Policy (Greenland, Venezuela, NATO, Iran)

56% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s foreign policy.
Greenland: 2/3 of the public oppose Trump’s efforts regarding Greenland, but nearly 70% of Republicans support it.
NATO: 56% have a favorable view; 2/3 believe the U.S. benefits from the alliance.
Military Action: 72% believe the president should consult Congress before using the military; Republicans again are the outlier group.

"56% of people disapprove of the job he's doing on foreign policy." — Domenico Montanaro (A), 14:27
Independents feel “whiplash” — many supported Trump believing he’d be less interventionist, but recent actions suggest otherwise.

"I thought we would be less involved in sort of foreign affairs in Trump 2.0. And it seems right now like the opposite is happening." — Ashley Lopez (C), 15:13

10. Messaging, White House Response, and Political Strategy

The White House is aware of these negative trends—Trump has publicly floated “toning things down” on immigration, and his border czar just withdrew 700 ICE agents from Minnesota.

"I learned that maybe we can use a little bit of a softer touch, but you still have to be tough." — Domenico Montanaro, quoting Trump (A), 17:19
Trump intends to increase economic messaging and travel, but struggles for focus.

"He talks a lot about how he has no regard for the teleprompter...what it means is that it’s really hard to tell that he’s focusing on the economy." — Tamara Keith (B), 17:44
The chaos that once insulated Trump now hinders clear economic messaging, especially with public violence dominating headlines.

"The chaos has also been kind of the Teflon for the president...But it is a problem when you’re trying to message...when people are being shot in an American city." — Ashley Lopez (C), 18:21

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On polarization:

"This is polarization at work." — Tamara Keith (B), 06:02
On Republican base:

"Trump’s base is as locked in as it can be... it's not about economic anxiety. It's not about ICE's tactics. It's about culture." — Domenico Montanaro (A), 06:04
On the “diamond slice” of Trump’s base:

“Is there something stronger than titanium?...Maybe we'll call it that. It's not a gold leaf slice of pie, because that can chip off. But diamond doesn't, right?" — Domenico Montanaro (A), 05:12
On Latino family complexity and shifting support:

"These are families that have mixed status... someone has temporary protected status and they're a voter because they were born here." — Ashley Lopez (C), 03:37
On chaos undermining messaging:

"When people are being shot in an American city, it is harder to talk about kitchen table issues." — Ashley Lopez (C), 18:21

Timestamps for Important Segments

01:07 — Poll overview and the surge in concerns over ICE
02:14 — Narrative shift from border control to ICE tactics
03:37 — How loss of TPS and ICE’s tactics are alienating Latinos
04:57 — Unshakable support among Republicans
08:16 — Public perception of ICE protesters
10:31 — Trump’s sagging approval numbers
11:11 — Voters’ top priorities: economy vs. immigration
12:26 — Focus group feedback on economic anxiety
13:25 — Tariff policies are unpopular
14:27 — Foreign policy, NATO, Greenland, Venezuela
17:19 — White House response: softening ICE tactics
17:44 — Challenges with economic messaging amid chaos
18:21 — How chaos now works against, not for, Trump

Conclusion

The episode reveals an inflection point in public opinion regarding ICE and, by extension, President Trump’s policies; the administration faces eroding support among Independents and Latinos, while his Republican base remains largely unmoved. Economic discontent overshadows immigration as the public’s top concern, but Trump’s messaging and political strategy are hampered by negative headlines and chaotic events. The poll signals not only polarization, but also the potential for shifting coalitions — and underscores the limits of “culture war” and law-and-order messages when anxiety over pocketbook issues grows.

(This summary is designed as a comprehensive resource for those who haven’t listened to the episode. All timestamps refer to the actual content; non-content and promotional sections are omitted.)

Loading summary

Transcript56 lines

[00:01]
A
This week on Up First, a high stakes funding fight over ICE tactics. Can Democrats negotiate any real change, or will the Trump administration refuse to budge? Get up, get informed and get on with your morning. With up first, the top three stories you need to start your day, listen on the NPR app or wherever you get podcasts.
[00:27]
B
Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast for Thursday, February, February. It's the hardest word of the year. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast for Thursday, February 5, 2026. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.
[00:41]
C
I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics.
[00:43]
A
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
[00:46]
B
Today on the show, we have a new NPR PBS News Marist Poll, and it finds a significant share of Americans say ice, Immigration and Customs Enforcement has gone too far. Domenico, after the past month of intense focus on ICE tactics and alarming video out of Minnesota, maybe it doesn't come as a total surprise, but help us understand the numbers.
[01:08]
A
Yeah, the 65% in this poll who say that ICE has gone too far is up 11 points since last summer. So a big reason has been everything that we've seen on tv, you know, the two American citizens who've been killed just in the past few weeks over this. And really the biggest movement has been with independents and Democrats by double digits. They've moved to saying that ISIS gone too far. We take Republicans out of it. It's just huge numbers. I mean, 93% of Democrats, not surprising. Right. But also 71% of independents who Trump did fairly well with in the 2024 election, saying that they think ICE has gone too far.
[01:45]
C
Observing independent voters sort of talk about immigration is interesting because by and large, I have heard independent voters say, especially swing voters say like closing the border in general is something that they approve of. But it is this extra element of ICE and the killings we've been seeing and what's been going on in Minneapolis been obviously the big impetus for this change. I think if Trump had just sort of stayed focused on the border, this would be a different conversation. But it's all this extra stuff that's been going on that from what I'm observing is pushing a lot of independent voters.
[02:14]
A
And it irritates Trump, too, that the fact that the narrative has gone toward ISIS tactics rather than talking about the border. We've heard that from a lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill who continue to talk about that, but it's of their own making, frankly. I mean, that's the reason people are focused on it is because they're seeing what they're seeing on tv, and you have two Americans killed in these kinds of law enforcement activities, activities. It's gonna get a lot of attention.
[02:35]
B
Another group of voters that President Trump made a decent amount of progress with in 2024 was Latino voters. Where do they come down on this?
[02:44]
A
Well, overall, Latino voters have really soured on President Trump. And we've seen that over lots of polls over several months. You know, this is a group that Trump did better than any Republican president in history with Latino voters, more 46% of Latino voters, according to exit polls. So setting that as the baseline, the fact that only 38 in this poll approve of the job that Trump is doing. Some 70% of Latinos disagree with how ICE is conducting their enforcement activities, saying that they think that ICE has gone too far, that they disapprove of ICE's tactics. Look, far and away, the economy, prices have been the thing that Latino voters have said that they care most about. And on that too, you have a majority of people overall saying that they think that the Trump administration should be focused on lowering prices and a plurality of Latinos as well.
[03:38]
C
One small thing on Latinos as well is that, I mean, obviously ICE tactics are part of this. But there's a compounding issue with a lot of Latino communities right now. A lot of, like, immigrants from different countries have lost their temporary protected status in the past several months. And that has really made Latino. Pollsters have told me that has really frustrated a lot of Latino voters who feel like they did things the right way and they have legal status. And that has, you know, just been one of the many things that has made these communities, like, really upset. Obviously someone with a temporary protected status wouldn't be voting like in the last election, for example. But these are families that have mixed status. A lot of the time. They like someone in their family has temporary protected status and they're a voter because they were, you know, born here. And so the assumption that a lot of Latino voters came in who voted for Donald Trump had for a long time was like, this would not touch.
[04:26]
A
Me personally, and that he would focus on criminals. I mean, I think that that was the big thing. And, you know, we've obviously talked a lot about second generation, third generation Latinos who say that they've done it the right way, as Ashley was talking about, and they're okay with immigration enforcement. But, you know, it's like some Republican members of Congress have said, Latino Republican members of Congress have said that, you know, he should be going after the gangsters. Not the gardeners. You know, in the poll, we also found that 62% of people say that ISIS tactics have made Americans less safe.
[04:57]
B
I do want to ask you about Republicans. We have talked many times on this podcast about President Trump's titanium piece of the electoral pie. We've been talking about it for nine years on this podcast. Any change there? How do Republicans feel about how ICE is doing?
[05:12]
A
Is there something stronger than titanium? Is it like diamond, maybe? I feel like it's like a diamond slice of the pie. Maybe we'll call it that. It's not a gold leaf slice of the pie, because that can chip off. But Dimon doesn't, right? I mean, 85% of Republicans approve of the job that Trump is doing. 80% approve of how he's handling the economy. Three quarters approve of how he's handling foreign policy. 77% think that ICE is making Americans safer, including 52% who say much more safe. 75% said demonstrators. Protesters are people who are acting mostly unlawfully. 66% think tariffs are helping the economy. A strong majority don't think the president needs to consult with Congress before taking military action. Oh, and by the way, in our poll, strong majorities of Democrats and Independents say the complete opposite of those things.
[06:02]
B
This is polarization at work.
[06:04]
A
It's really quite something. But look, I think in talking about Republicans, they are where they are, right? And I think that maybe we can put to rest this idea that the base Trump voters are gonna chip away from Trump because of this thing. The fact is, Trump. Trump's base is as locked in as it can be. And I think the reason is it isn't about all these other things. It's not about economic anxiety. It's not about ISIS tactics. It's about culture. And for them, immigration enforcement is still the number one thing that they're most concerned about. Even though 54% of people in our poll said that lowering prices should be Trump's top priority. And far and away the highest, a plurality of Republicans said immigration should be Trump's top priority.
[06:51]
C
It's also tribalism, right? If you're a Republican, this is your identity, right? Like, disagreeing with Trump means that you are not a real Republican, and that has been that way for a long time. And there's also something psychologically happening that I have observed in some Trump voters, which is, like, you have to basically defend him because you're defending yourself a lot. A lot of the time, and that is just really hard to sort of break out of. I've watched this in focus groups like voters say, look, I have people in my family who don't like Trump. And every single time something happens that they don't like that Trump did, I'm not just defending him. I have to defend myself and my vote. And that is just like a really hard habit to break.
[07:27]
A
Yeah, they bought the hat, they bought the T shirt, and they're not giving it back. But what has happened is that his voting coalition has frayed. Right. When we talked about independents, we talk about Latinos, voters under 30. Those are three groups where while Trump didn't win, those groups, they voted in pretty substantial numbers for him in 2024, helped him over the finish line according to exit polls, because of the economy. And they have just completely abandoned Trump at this point, According to the polls.
[08:00]
B
Yeah, I mean, he would not have won without them.
[08:03]
A
Right.
[08:03]
B
Now, I wanna go back to ICE and the other side of this, the protesters. What does the poll say about how people feel about those who are protesting ICE and ICE tactics? Yeah.
[08:16]
A
I mean, almost six in ten said that the demonstrations are mostly legitimate as opposed to people acting unlawfully. Only 40% said that. And again, another place where we're see huge polarization on this question when you have 59%, you're talking about 85% of Democrats who feel these are mostly legitimate protests, 65% of independents, by the way. But guess what? 75% of Republicans say that these are people who are mostly acting unlawfully. And I think it just shows you that Republicans in this poll, question after question, really stand out like a sore thumb. And independents on every single question, I went through to check that every single question side with Democrats and. And in many cases, overwhelmingly.
[08:58]
B
All right, well, we are going to take a quick break and we will be back with more.
[09:02]
C
Valentine's Day is coming up, and the perfect gift for the NPR lover in your life is waiting at the NPR shop. From cozy sweaters and mugs made for slow mornings to our tiny desk hoodie, there's something for every NPR fan. Each purchase supports public media and the journalism you love. Find something meaningful@shopnpr.org.
[09:24]
B
On NPR's Wildcard podcast. Oprah on the art of being alone. Are you good at being alone? Oh, my God, I'm a master at it.
[09:33]
A
Tell me more.
[09:35]
B
I cherish it.
[09:36]
A
I revel in it. I can't wait to be alone.
[09:40]
B
Watch or listen to that wildcard conversation on the NPR app or on YouTube @NPRWildcard. This is Tanya Mosley, co host of Fresh Air. You'll see your favorite actors, directors and comedians on late night TV shows or YouTube. But what you get with FRESH Air is a deep dive. Spend some quality time with people like Billie Eilish Questlove, Ariana Grande, Stephen Colbert, and so many more. We ask questions you won't hear asked anywhere else. Listen to the Fresh Air podcast from NPR and whyy. And we're back. And we've been talking about the results of a new NPR PBS News Marist poll, Domenico. The poll gives us another reading on President Trump's approval rating overall. How do people think he's doing?
[10:31]
A
He's not doing well. 39% approve of the job that Trump is doing. Since November, Trump has been below 40 in the Marist poll. And, you know, I think that it shows you. Even though Trump has been boasting about how he's gonna sue the pollsters, about how, you know, people are all in favor of these tactics on ice, all this boasting that they're doing in social media, in these speeches, they know inside the White House that he's in a really vulnerable position. And that's why you've seen some of the adjustments that we've seen.
[11:01]
B
Yeah. So the economy is quite often the top issue for voters. What does this poll show about how President Trump is faring on the economy?
[11:12]
A
Yeah, I mean, look, lowering prices still continues to be the thing that people say should be the Trump administration's top priority right now. Despite all of the headlines being about ICE or these threats that he's made about Greenland, the action he took in Venezuela, 54% in this poll said that lowering prices should be the top priority for the Trump administration. Controlling immigration is second at 22%. So much further down the list. Obviously, there's a partisan split here which we talked a little bit about. But 70% of Democrats and 58% of independents say focus on lowering prices. 44% of Republicans say controlling immigration should be the top priority, compared to 32% of Republicans who say it should be lowering prices. So that's why I think you see Trump continuing to talk about immigration like it's the most important thing, because he's in his own information silo. He watches Fox News, he watches conservative media, and that's where he thinks that's where all people are and that's how they feel about things. But really, people are saying lower prices, that's the most important thing.
[12:18]
B
Yeah. And Ashley, you mentioned this focus group before that you monitored. I am remembering a lot of people talking about the economy and affordability.
[12:27]
C
Yeah. I mean, this is probably the thing that came up the most, which is even when voters are talking about things like ice and some of the foreign policy stuff involving Greenland and Venezuela, like, there's two things going on here, which is, one, they think Trump is really distracted. A lot of independent voters in swing voters say they voted for Trump because of the economy and they wanted to see lower prices, and they're not seeing that. Like, their material reality has not changed enough since Trump has been in office. And two, they actually think that all the chaos being created by situations like what's happening in Minnesota and Venezuela are making them more anxious about the economy. I mean, you wouldn't think, like, the two things would be connected, but I heard a voter say, like, look, I just don't know what's gonna happen the next day. So, you know, that makes me think, like, political upheaval could eventually become economic upheaval, economic problems. So it is a problem for Trump to continue to have. First of all, all these other big things be in the news, and people think he's not working on the economy. But two, chaos in general doesn't seem to help him at all as well.
[13:25]
A
And here's the bigger problem. When he does work on the economy, his policies are not popular. Tariffs are his main lever for trying to affect the economy, bring in revenue, try to change policies of other countries. And yet, when we asked in this poll whether or not tariffs hurt or help the economy, by a 56 to 31% margin, people said tariffs hurt the economy. 59% of people disapprove of the job Trump is doing on the economy. That is a huge, huge number and a huge switch from the first term, when the economy and immigration were two things that were big advantages for him that have now completely flipped.
[14:06]
B
I want to turn to another finding in the poll that I found very interesting related to foreign policy. You know, the President has spent so much time on foreign policy, even just like, in the last 24 hours, he's saying that Iran should be very worried. And before that, we're talking about Venezuela, and in between, we were talking about Greenland, and it's only been a month into this year. So what do voters say about all this?
[14:27]
A
Well, 56% of people disapprove of the job he's doing on foreign policy. I mean, it's a huge number also. And when it comes to things like Greenland, you know, 2/3 of people oppose the possibility of taking control of Greenland. The only outlier here are Republicans.
[14:44]
B
Yeah, what do they say?
[14:45]
A
Almost 7 in 10 Republicans are okay with taking control of Greenland, which I just found to be super interesting. Two thirds also said that they think the U.S. benefits from its relationship with NATO. And 56% of respondents had a favorable view of that alliance. And, you know, when it, when it comes to things like Venezuela, 72% of people said that the president should have to consult with Congress before taking military action. And again, put Republicans in their own box, all of those things. They side with the president.
[15:13]
C
This is a liability for Trump among independent voters as well. I don't know if you guys remember talking to voters during the election. I heard so many independent voters say, I think I'm gonna vote for Trump because he seems like less of a war hawk than the Harris administration. And I've heard this come up a couple times, which is like, I thought we would be less involved in sort of foreign affairs in Trump 2.0. And it seems right now like the opposite is happening. And I've, you know, I can see a lot of independent voters having a whiplash now and being like, I thought we were getting something totally different when I voted for Trump.
[15:42]
A
Well, yeah, the numbers bear that out. 63% disapprove of Trump's handling of foreign policy.
[15:47]
B
Among independents, I feel like you have just said a lot of numbers and most of them are the same. Like, like there's just like, you know, overall, pretty simple. Republicans love him, Independents and Democrats not happy, and we're in the 60 something percent range of negative on everything.
[16:09]
A
Well, I think what's fascinating to me as somebody who watches these numbers, is one poll is not everything. Trends matter. Multiple polls matter, and multiple polls and all the trends are showing the same thing. And I find it interesting from a messaging standpoint how the White House has tried to say ignore all of that, that we're gonna sue them. They're all wrong. I mean, everyone is wrong. They work very hard, the pollsters, to be able to get good randomized samples of people who represent the entire country. And clearly we're seeing that the Republicans we're getting in our surveys are telling us they love Trump. But there's a big separation between what Trump has seen as his base and who still like everything he's doing, versus those independents and, of course, Democrats who completely feel something differently. And we know the White House is seeing this and understands it because they are making these pivots. I mean, you think about Greenland, but also on ice, right, Tam?
[17:10]
B
Yeah, absolutely. President Trump himself, even in an interview with NBC News, talked about toning things down a bit when it comes to immigration enforcement.
[17:19]
A
I learned that maybe we can use a little bit of a softer touch, but you still have to be tough. These are criminal we're dealing with really hard criminals.
[17:30]
B
And the president's border czar, Tom Homan, did announce a drawdown of about 700 immigration agents from Minnesota this week. That still leaves a lot of them there. So there is an acknowledgement, I think, coming from the White House that they're losing the thread. There's also a very clear acknowledgement that they need to focus more on the economy. And the White House was saying the president's gonna give an economic address every single week. He's gonna travel out into the country and talk about the economy. And he did it a couple of weeks. And I've gotta say, like, those speeches, they were not focused. He talks a lot about how he has no regard for the teleprompter. And that is a thing he thinks that is his gift. He talks about it all the time. But what it means is that it's really hard to tell that he's focusing on the economy because he's focusing on so many other things.
[18:22]
C
I mean, he's also in a particular kind of bind, which is that the chaos has also been kind of the Teflon for the president, which is so much going on, means a lot of stuff doesn't stick to him. But it is a problem when you're trying to message and message things like the economy. When people are being shot in an American city, it is harder to talk about kitchen table issues. So, you know, I think as long as this is what his presidency looks like, the administration, how it functions, it's going to be hard to get messaging to voters about stuff that, that, yeah, they probably care about the most, but it's not gonna seep through.
[18:55]
B
All right. We are gonna leave it there for today. Tomorrow we are going to scoop up all of the other political news from the week. So make sure you don't miss it by hitting the follow button in your favorite podcast app. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.
[19:08]
C
I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics.
[19:10]
A
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
[19:13]
B
And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.
[19:25]
C
2026 marks the 100th anniversary of what.
[19:27]
B
We now celebrate as Black History Month.
[19:30]
C
So on Code Switch, we're reflecting on that journey.
[19:33]
A
Black History Month is a time for people to observe black history as a movement and a legacy that was about correcting the historical record. Listen to NPR's Code Switch podcast on.
[19:45]
B
The NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.