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- [00:01]
Ron Rutson
This message comes from Carvana. Sell your car the convenient way, enter your license plate or vin, answer a few questions and get a real offer in seconds. Go to Carvana.com today.
- [00:13]
Carly
Hi, this is Carly here on my first trip to New York City. I just finished my business meeting for the day and now get to explore. I'm currently watching people swarm to take pictures of the charging bowl.
- [00:25]
Asma Khalid
This podcast was recorded at 12:35pm Eastern Time on Wednesday, February 12th of 2020.
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Carly
Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I will have gone through the crowd to get my own picture. All right. Enjoy the show.
- [00:42]
Franco Ordonez
I've been at that ball. The line is pretty long. My son loved it, though.
- [00:47]
Asma Khalid
Hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House.
- [00:51]
Franco Ordonez
I'm Franco Ordonez. I also cover the White House.
- [00:53]
Asma Khalid
And today on the show America's New Foreign Policy in the Trump Era, we try to decipher what it is and if it differs from the last time Trump was in office. And to help us make sense of these questions, we are joined by a Special guest today, NPR's Michelle Kellerman. She covers the State Department for NPR. Hey there, Michelle.
- [01:11]
Michelle Kellerman
Nice to be here.
- [01:12]
Asma Khalid
So I actually want to start the conversation with you because you have covered foreign policy in a lot of different presidential administrations, Republican and Democrat. How would you describe this Trump administration's worldview?
- [01:26]
Michelle Kellerman
I've been covering the secretaries of state since Colin Powell was secretary. And there have been kind of, you know, rules of the road, the post Cold War era, the post World War II international institutions. All of this is kind of being thrown up for grabs again. I mean, I remember when I started, you know, we were talking about the end of history. Right. We were talking about how everyone was moving to a more liberal democracies around the world. And now you have Russia and China being very kind of revanchist on the world stage. And you have a president who is talking about doing things like seizing the Panama Canal or seizing Greenland or taking over Gaza. I mean, you're talking about kind of right wing governments, populist governments in a lot of countries changing the way the world works.
- [02:17]
Franco Ordonez
Yeah. Trump never bought into the international rules based system that Michelle's describing. You know, he always pooh, poohed institutions, whether it was the Paris Climate Accords or the World Health Organization or even NATO. But he kind of, in the past time, he kind of had guardrails. You had people he did believe, people who surrounded him who did believe in those systems and kind of tried to keep those up. But Trump now has only loyalists who are just working for him and working for his vision. And he's obviously a lot more confident this time because he's got more experience to rule, really plow through those things and kind of take on what many see as not isolationism, but kind of imperialism.
- [03:01]
Asma Khalid
I wanna ask you more about that, because so much of Trump's first term, and I would argue even parts of his campaign this time revolved around the idea of America First. And now we are seeing a real interventionist streak. I mean, Michelle, you mentioned wanting to seize the Panama Canal, take over Greenland, says Canada should become the 51st state of the United States, and just yesterday again reiterated that he wants to control the Gaza Strip. How do you reconcile this territorial expansionist vision with the America first vision? Is that no longer part of Trump's agenda?
- [03:35]
Franco Ordonez
No, I mean, I think it is. I mean, as. As it's been explained to me, it is America first on steroids. It's isolationism. But isolationism does not mean not being involved. Instead of these, you know, kind of rules systems, these international systems that kind of we're talking about, instead of diplomacy, this idea of rising up all ship of, you know, helping out friends, whether it's socially, economically, and diplomatically or democratically, and helping them go up with the idea that it will also help us. Instead, it's focused on what are the interests of the US that can make the US Stronger. And it's about using US Strength and power to kind of expand or grow that strength. And Greenland falls into that. Trump makes it very clear that he sees that as a national security issue, to kind of counter Russia and China. The Panama Canal, he wants more control of that because he feels China has too much influence in that. Canada, I think there's other questions about it, but certainly minerals that are there that he's concerned about and paying too much money.
- [04:41]
Michelle Kellerman
You know, it's also about this idea that there were many years where the US Was trying to bring China into the fold and the World Trade Organization and things like this. And the feeling that Trump has is that China took advantage of that and now these rules should no longer apply.
- [04:58]
Asma Khalid
He seems to also have a real transactional approach to foreign policy. And we talked about this a bit yesterday on the podcast when we talked about Mexico and Canada in tariffs. But it seems like his broad view of trade, which he sees as really integral, I think, to his foreign policy is about transactional relationships. Right. He talks about this all the time, that it's it's about creating fair and good deals with the United States. And I did a little bit of reporting about this, actually, with the Prime Minister of India, Prime Minister Modi, who's visiting tomorrow. All I keep hearing about in my interviews is that this is really going to be about trade and trying to get India to lower tariffs. Do you see this as well, this idea that a lot of it is about transactional relationships?
- [05:40]
Franco Ordonez
Yeah, I think there's no question that so much of this is about transactional relationships and feeling, at least Trump feeling that the US has been taken advantage of in so many different ways. But specifically and especially on trade, take the not only the tariffs that he's talking about with India, but also Mexico and Canada, the steel and aluminum tariffs. But I will also add that practice was kind of common in the first term as well. What is different now is he's using some of these economic tools also to kind of try to seize, you know, other people's territory. I mean, Greenland, he's, you know, threatening big, huge tariffs on the Danish if they don't cooperate. Same thing with Jordan. The king of Jordan was just here. He's pressuring the king of Jordan to take in Palestinians so that the United States can take over Gaza and redevelop it. Obviously, the Arab leaders do not want to have anything to do with this. And he's threatening tariffs there, or maybe not tariffs, but he's threatening to pull US Aid from those leaders. So, yes, it is about trade. Yes, it is transactional, but it is also to a different degree than it was the first time.
- [06:54]
Asma Khalid
Michelle, what's interesting to me in this current moment is that there was, you could argue, one existing framework for these kinds of transactional relationships that the United States has. And I would argue that's through foreign aid and development assistance. Right. Usaid. And in theory, you know, the US Would help provide food aid or say, build clean water systems, and in exchange it would get, you could argue, cooperation maybe in other fields. I know not everyone agrees with that vision of usaid, but it is now on the chopping block. And what that means is that all that soft power leverage is gone, isn't it?
- [07:30]
Michelle Kellerman
Yeah. And it's been really fascinating to watch because Secretary of State Marco Rubio keeps talking about how he wants to keep the programs that do advance U.S. interests. But the problem is really that all this is moving really fast. And what Rubio says is kind of a normal review process to figure out which programs are worth it for us, which ones aren't worth it for US during all of that, Elon Musk and his team are moving really quickly to kind of erase the whole agency. And there's also a lot of misinformation that they're spreading about USAID. I mean, just remember this whole $50 million in condoms for Gaza. Fact checkers found out that it was actually a less than $50 million aid program for Gaza, Mozambique that may have included some condoms in it. And when Elon Musk was asked about it, he basically just shrugged and said, well, I'm not gonna be right all of the time. And so, you know, they've come in kind of breaking all of this down and spreading a lot of misinformation about it. And, you know, it could really be damaging to America's long term credibility in the world.
- [08:35]
Asma Khalid
All right. Well, let's take a quick break. Lots more to discuss in a moment.
- [08:40]
Ron Rutson
This message comes from NPR sponsor Saatva. Founder and CEO Ron Rutson shares the experience they hope to create in their viewing rooms.
- [08:50]
Elon Musk
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- [09:05]
Ron Rutson
Up to $600 through President's Day@SAATVA.com NPR.
- [09:13]
Asma Khalid
And we're back. And Michelle, you've mentioned the secretary of state, Marco Rubio. He's the former senator from Florida and former political rival to Donald Trump. You traveled with him the other week to the Panama Canal. I'm curious if you can tell us how much power Rubio has in his role and is he able to influence Donald Trump's foreign policy?
- [09:36]
Michelle Kellerman
It's really hard to say. I mean, he's about to go on his first trip to the Middle east in the coming days at a time when President Trump is talking about not buying Gaza, but just taking it and cherishing it, as he put it. And there's just a lot of alarm in the Arab world about that. But the way that Rubio talks about it, he kind of softens it or tries to explain what Trump may really mean. He seems to think that this is mostly about kind of lighting a fire under the Arab world to get them to do something about the Palestinians and to do something about Gaza because, you know, everyone's big talk, but, you know, what are they doing about it and how are they going to resolve it? And, you know, when he went down to Panama Again, it came at a time when Trump is talking about seizing the Panama Canal, taking back the Panama Canal. And what Rubio talked about instead was, you know, there are legitimate concerns about the Panama Canal because there are Chinese companies that control ports on either end of it. And this is a problem for the United States. So he kind of is suggesting that we're getting somewhere with the Panamanians, they're auditing these Chinese companies. They're not going to rejoin China's Belt and Road initiative. So he's kind of portraying that as some wins.
- [10:59]
Franco Ordonez
Yeah, I think Rubio has a delicate road to kind of, you know, travel here. I mean, on the one hand, he's trying to kind of, you know, interpret or translate what Trump wants into more diplomatic and softer language. At the same time, he needs to be careful to not get on the wrong side of Trump. And I think it's very clear that he is very conscious of that. I mean, what I see is different time versus the first term is, you know, with the former Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson and Mike Pompeo. You know, they had their own visions, they had their own agendas, and whether it was right or wrong, I think they felt more empowered to pursue those. I think in this go around, the people that are surrounding Trump are loyalists or know that they have to be super loyal if they want to survive. And that has kind of eliminated, you know, these so called guardrails, these kind of things that are supposed to stop Trump from doing or pursuing kind of his worst instincts. And Rubio is a serious guy. He was one of the fastest people to go through the process. He was one of the most trusted members. He's been on the Foreign Relations Committee. I mean, he knows the things that he's talking about. So it is interesting to watch him kind of be so careful. At the same time, it makes perfect sense because he is in the Trump.
- [12:17]
Asma Khalid
Administration, knowing the politics you're saying of this moment.
- [12:19]
Michelle Kellerman
Yeah, I've been hearing a lot of kind of concern by career people at the U.S. agency for International Development and the State Department that, you know, he knows what they do, yet he's kind of bought into this whole idea that it has to be completely revamped.
- [12:39]
Asma Khalid
I also wanna drill down a little bit on the calls and meetings that President Trump has had to date with various foreign leaders. Just a bit ago, we got news that President Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Franco. What do you see as the significance of that call, but also the meetings and calls that Trump has had on the calendar?
- [13:00]
Franco Ordonez
Yeah, I Mean, I think it shows what his priorities are right now. I mean, the call with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin today. The vice president, J.D. vance, is also meeting this week with Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelensky. It's clear Trump campaigned on promising to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. That obviously didn't happen, but he is still pushing that and trying to get some type of agreement. He's had a few calls with Putin and they're still trying to talk about that. Trump told me that he was planning to meet with Putin at, quote, the right time. When that is, we'll see. You know, obviously, he had the meeting with the King of Jordan, as we just talked about. This comes at a time that he's trying to pressure Arab leaders to take in Palestinians so that there can be some overhaul of Gaza and turn it, as he has described, into the Riviera of the Middle east, something that the Arab leaders have, you know, dismissed so far. And Modi, he's coming this week gonna talk about immigration and trade.
- [14:02]
Asma Khalid
Yeah, I mean, what I've been hearing is that trade is sort of top of the agenda for this visit with Modi, and that there was no trade deal that the Indians and the Americans were able to reach during Trump's first term, and that the Americans, that the Trump administration feels like it has leverage in this moment. I was speaking with someone who was in the National Security Council during Trump's first term working on these South Asia issues and says that moment is different for Trump right now. Right. As you all have been saying, I think he surrounded himself also very much by loyalists. But there's. But there's a sense, I think, of confidence that this Trump administration has to pursue, I think, more aggressively trade deals this time.
- [14:40]
Michelle Kellerman
I'll be so interested to hear how Modi spins this, too, though, because Rubio is not going to a G20 meeting because Elon Musk is angry with some South African policies. And so Suddenly, and the G20 is.
- [14:52]
Asma Khalid
Supposed to be in South Africa and.
- [14:53]
Michelle Kellerman
The G20 is in South Africa, you know, so this kind of go it alone approach, it could be damaging because countries have other partners other than the.
- [15:04]
Asma Khalid
U.S. one final question for both of you, and that is that, you know, when you look at polls, it seems like Americans don't care a whole lot about foreign policy. It's never really at the top of their agenda for why they vote for a particular candidate. And if there are, then big shifts in foreign policy, say, between this Trump second term and Joe Biden the previous President, do you think that the typical American will notice? Will they pay much attention to it? And why does it matter?
- [15:33]
Michelle Kellerman
You know, one thing I always find fascinating is that when you look at polls, people think that 25% of the American budget goes to foreign aid when it's less than 1%. So, you know, we're talking about these issues, like, as if these are really driving Americans thinking. But these kinds of things resonate with voters. And I think a lot of this is really that it's mostly about show. And then when it comes down to it, the policy changes aren't as big as how they're made out to be.
- [16:01]
Franco Ordonez
Yeah, I mean, I agree. I think a lot of it is show. And I think part of that is because of how it's become such a political issue. I mean, as Michelle says, kind of pushing this idea that so much of US Money is going overseas when it could or should be spent here domestically. And, you know, just Trump himself making this shift, I think is grabbing a lot of people's attention. You know, I find it very fascinating that Republicans are going along with so many of these issues, which are so clearly against traditional Republican views. But it's another example of how Trump has such a grip on the Republican Party. Because if Trump all of a sudden, you know, decided to go back to the who example or start supporting NATO in a different way, I think few people who follow him would have any doubts that so many Republicans would jump right on board.
- [16:59]
Michelle Kellerman
Yeah. And the other interesting thing on aid is so much of it is, you know, actually supporting the U.S. defense industry. And in terms of USAID helping the U.S. farmers, when any of this filters down to these senators constituents, then that might change their opinions about it. All right.
- [17:16]
Asma Khalid
Well, such an interesting conversation. Michelle, thank you so much for coming on the show.
- [17:20]
Michelle Kellerman
Nice to be here.
- [17:21]
Asma Khalid
And that is a wrap for today. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House.
- [17:24]
Franco Ordonez
I'm Frank Ordonez. I also cover the White House.
- [17:26]
Asma Khalid
And thank you all, as always, for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.
- [17:37]
Ron Rutson
At the super bowl halftime show, Kendrick Lamar indeed performed his smash diss track Not Like Us and brought out Samuel L. Jackson, Serena Williams, and sza. We're recapping the super bowl, including why we saw so many celebrities in commercials this year. Listen to the Pop Culture Happy Hour podcast from npr.