NPR Politics Podcast: "New Poll Results Show Democrats With An Edge, Topping Off Tough Week For Trump"

Date: November 21, 2025
Hosts: Miles Parks, Domenico Montanaro, Mara Liasson

Episode Overview

This episode covers a consequential week in U.S. politics, highlighting new polling that shows Democrats with a notable advantage over Republicans. The team breaks down the political ramifications of Congress' push to release the Jeffrey Epstein files, the President's combative responses to Democratic lawmakers, a pivotal court ruling on Texas redistricting, and public sentiment about President Trump’s leadership and the broader political climate ahead of the midterms. The episode’s tone mixes deep political analysis with humor and some personal anecdotes in the “Can’t Let It Go” segment.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Release of the Jeffrey Epstein Files (01:22–04:57)

• Trump's Shift in Position: President Trump, who previously fought the release of Epstein files, ultimately signed a bill allowing their release.
  • Domenico Montanaro: “He waved the white flag. ...He tried to pressure Republicans... then he waved the white flag. It gave an openness to allow other people to go and vote in favor of the full release.” (01:43–02:12)
• Bipartisan Action: The bill passed the House nearly unanimously, and the Senate cleared it unanimously—a rarity in current congressional politics.
  • Miles Parks: "What do you all make of the fact we can never find bipartisan agreement about anything and yet this seems to have done it?" (03:06)
  • Domenico Montanaro: "[Republicans] have cowed to Trump over the years and been willing to do what he wants, not necessarily what they morally think is the right thing to do." (03:21)
• Political Fallout for Trump: Questions arise about Trump’s motives and if this scandal will affect him politically.
  • Mara Liasson: "Usually, like you said, scandals just roll off him like water off a duck's back. So why was he so concerned about this?" (04:13)
  • Mara Liasson: "He doesn't seem as powerful as he used to." (04:47)

2. Democrats’ Military Messaging & Trump’s Reaction (04:57–07:31)

• Democratic Video Encouraging Refusal of Illegal Orders: Democratic lawmakers with military backgrounds urged service members to refuse illegal orders.
  • Miles Parks (channeling the video): “You must refuse illegal orders.” (05:19)
• Trump’s Response: President calls the lawmakers “traitors” and reposts commentary suggesting execution—later denied by the White House as endorsement.
  • Mara Liasson: "When my kid uses the F word and then he says he's just kidding... he still use the F word and he gets punished. ...He said that they should be executed. This is not the first time..." (05:42)
  • Mara Liasson: “It’s hard to explain your way out of this at some point, even for Donald Trump.” (06:19)
• Democratic Strategy: Democrats, particularly those aligned with veterans’ groups, are targeting Trump's perceived weaknesses with the military to bait him politically.
  • Domenico Montanaro: "It's a broader strategy to bait Trump, and it seems to have worked this week." (06:48)

3. Texas Gerrymandering Thrown Out (07:31–09:51)

• Federal Judge Blocks Texas Maps: Recent gerrymandering favoring Republicans in Texas is invalidated due to racial, not just political, motivations.
  • Mara Liasson: “The Supreme Court has said political gerrymanders are okay...But...as long as the last few vestiges of the Voting Rights Act are still standing, you're not supposed to do racial gerrymanders.” (07:51)
• Potential Boomerang Effects: New maps may create risks for Republicans in Latino districts, as Latinos are shifting away from the GOP.
  • Domenico Montanaro: "When you start to reduce the power of the seats...and when you're banking on Latinos in South Texas...We've seen those Latinos move away from the Republican Party and Trump this year." (09:17)
  • Mara Liasson adds: “That's why sometimes gerrymanders turn into what we call dummy manders. They backfire.” (09:51)

4. New NPR Poll: Democrats Gain, Trump Falters (11:39–17:16)

• Democrats’ Big Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot: NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Democrats up by 14 points—a rare and striking result.
  • Domenico Montanaro: “In 20 years of covering politics, I can't remember seeing a good survey...where one party is at 55 in the congressional ballot.” (11:39)
• Voters' Dissatisfaction: Both Trump and Republicans face low approval—notably, Trump registers a 39% job approval, with especially low numbers among independents.
  • Mara Liasson: "We have more Democrats sitting in seats that Trump won than Republicans sitting in seats that Harris won. And also, Republicans have an advantage, not even counting the mid cycle gerrymandering..." (12:32)
• GOP Response and Party Loyalty: Despite discontent, Republicans remain loyal—9 in 10 still back Trump. But, it’s easier for some to break with Trump as his approval dips.
  • Domenico Montanaro: "It's certainly easier to do that when a president has low approval ratings as Trump does." (13:36)
• Key Issues for Voters: The economy dominates; 57% see lowering prices as the top priority, much more than immigration.
  • Domenico Montanaro: "Trump is chaos...but he can't escape the fact that people are feeling a pinch in their pockets."(14:58)
• Democrat Enthusiasm: Democrats are disliked even among their own voters, but anger and motivation, not apathy, is fueling turnout—discontent is not translating to support for Republicans.
  • Mara Liasson: "Are they gonna stay home? Probably not. Cuz these voters are very, very angry." (14:17)
• Forecasting the Year Ahead: The poll provides a "framework" for where public opinion stands, but much can change, especially if the economy improves.
  • Domenico Montanaro: "If prices stay what they are, it's advantage Democrats. But if they come down and people feel improvements, then this lead very much could recede." (16:28)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump and the Epstein Files Release:
  • Mara Liasson: “He ran to the head of the parade and grabbed the flag because he knew he was losing...I don't know if that stuff is working anymore for him.” (02:34)
• On Political Chaos:
  • Domenico Montanaro: "Trump is chaos. That's always been his strategy. He puts out a fire hose of stuff, you know, controversial things online..." (14:58)
• On the Power Dynamics in Congress:
  • Domenico Montanaro: "Nothing says lame duck more than the out party...taking over control of the House." (08:43)
• On Motivated Voters:
  • Mara Liasson: "They are not happy with Democrats. Does that mean they're gonna vote for Republicans? No. Are they gonna stay home? Probably not. Cuz these voters are very, very angry." (14:17)
• On Gerrymanders Backfiring:
  • Mara Liasson: "That's why sometimes gerrymanders turn into what we call dummy manders. They backfire." (09:51)
• On Poll Skepticism:
  • Mara Liasson: “Sure, we're still a year away, but...if Democrats can maintain a lead of...8 to 11 points... that's setting them up for a very good midterm.” (12:32)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Epstein Files Legislation & Analysis: 01:22–04:57
• Democratic Military Orders Video & Trump Reaction: 04:57–07:31
• Texas Gerrymandering Court Ruling: 07:31–09:51
• New NPR Polling and Midterm Implications: 11:39–17:16

"Can't Let It Go" Segment (19:03–24:04)

• Mara Liasson: Discusses a controversial new U.S. 250th anniversary commemorative coin featuring Trump—controversial both for defying tradition & possibly the law.
  • “What this to me symbolizes is not just that the rules and laws don't apply to Trump, but his motto could be heads I win, tails you lose...” (19:03)
• Miles Parks: Recalls a bizarre issue of a man on parental leave who reached out to Colorado voting officials about election machines, humorously pondering how someone investigates voting machines while caring for a newborn. (21:08)
• Domenico Montanaro: Talks about troubling new AI-powered toys that give children unfiltered, sometimes dangerous information. “We've come a long way since Teddy Ruxpin. Let me tell you.” (22:39)

Takeaways

• Democrats are enjoying a rare political upswing, but structural factors such as gerrymandering and partisan loyalty remain battlegrounds.
• Trump's grip on GOP lawmakers is weakening, yet he still commands strong base approval.
• Voters from both parties are dissatisfied; economic pain trumps most other issues.
• Unexpected court decisions and party strategies may shift the calculus heading into the 2026 midterms.

For anyone missing the episode, this summary captures the main arguments, emotional tone, and humor the panel brought to a fast-paced, eventful week in U.S. politics.