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Domenico Montanaro
On the Throughline podcast from npr, immigration enforcement might be more visible now, but this moment didn't begin with President Trump's second inauguration or even his first, a series from Throughline about how immigration became political and a cash cow. Listen to Throughline in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Tamara Keith
Hey there. It's Tamara Keith, one of the hosts of the NPR Politics podcast. Today is October 1, 2025. It's a histor day for NPR and stations nationwide. Because it's our first day without federal funding, this day reminds me of why I do this work. Growing up in a small town in central California, my local public radio station made me feel connected to the rest of the world, and it helped me dream big. For more than a decade, I've had the opportunity to be a White House correspondent for npr, taking our audience into the Oval Office and on Air Force One and pressing three different presidents on issues that matter to you. I believe in the power of stories to connect people across neighborhoods, political divides, even oceans. Public media has always been powered by people like you, not politics or profit, but your stories, your voices, your lived experiences and your support. That's why we endure. As long as there are still important stories to tell, we, we will be here giving them voice.
Miles Parks
This is Ben Kimberlake in Trentino, Italy.
Domenico Montanaro
I'm working the annual grape harvest, the Vendemia.
Miles Parks
This podcast was recorded at 12:33pm on Wednesday, October 1, 2025. Things may have changed by the time you hear it, and these grapes will.
Domenico Montanaro
Be well on their way to becoming delicious Martimino wine. Honestly, if they need help, I mean, I'm more than happy to lend my mediocre to proficient Italian skills and labor to.
Miles Parks
Do you actually have skills or is it just the Italian?
Claudia Grisales
He has a lot.
Miles Parks
Yes.
Claudia Grisales
He's a serious cook.
Domenico Montanaro
Okay, that's true.
Claudia Grisales
Yeah.
Domenico Montanaro
And I drink wine.
Miles Parks
That's a qualification. Okay. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.
Claudia Grisales
I'm Claudia Grisales. I cover Congress.
Domenico Montanaro
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
Miles Parks
And today on the show, it is day one of the government shutdown. How long will it last? And where do we go from here, Claudia? Let's just start there. Where are we at with these negotiations and what is the latest?
Claudia Grisales
Well, there really aren't any. It really signals the deep partisan rift that we're seeing here after months of building distrust and acrimony on Capitol Hill on both sides. So in terms of the closest exit ramp, Republicans are just hoping that they can continue voting on the same stopgap measure over and over and get enough votes to get over this filibuster threshold. They need 60 votes and they need about seven to eight Democrats to join them. So they did it again today. And both times last night, today it failed. And so they didn't see any new Democratic defections. We've seen three from the other side so far, Nevada's Catherine Cortez Masto, the independent senator from Maine, Angus King, as well as another Democrat, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. But we didn't see any additional Democrats. So just a signal that they're holding on to their demands for Republicans to hold bipartisan talks to address RIS healthcare costs. And so while we saw three defections from the Democratic side with these senators, Republicans also have to contend with one member who will continually vote no fiscal conservative. This is Rand Paul of Kentucky. That's why potentially they're going to need an extra Democratic member to join them.
Miles Parks
Well, it's interesting because we could have had this fight potentially in March, but Democrats decided then to vote to avoid a shutdown. How is that vote shaping what we're seeing happening right now?
Claudia Grisales
Right. It really is shaping almost everything here because Democrats paid the price. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer saw a lot of fallout, a lot of backlash from their base, from their rank and file members. It was just another reminder of a continuing complaint from voters that Democrats are not doing enough. So this has been building up all year long in terms of the Democrats taking this stand. And we'll see how long they'll go. However, it's going to be quite the pressure test here.
Domenico Montanaro
Yeah. And look, I think that there's been for a while Democrats kind of irritated with other Democrats. In our new NPR PBS Newsmaris poll, Democrats in Congress only get a 25% approval rating. And that's because only 48% of Democrats approve of Democrats of the job that they're doing. Compare that to Republicans. Republicans are 30 points more likely to say that they approve of the job that Republicans are doing in Congress. So that's what makes the difference where Republicans have a 35% approval rating slightly higher. And I spoke to a couple of voters from our poll. Robert Jenkins is a Democrat from Pennsylvania who talked about his frustration with the Democratic Party and how they're just seemingly not able to fight back against Republicans.
Miles Parks
I think they're spineless. I really do. I think that they're getting run all over by the Republicans. It's just fight back. You know what I mean, fight back as far as what's going on.
Domenico Montanaro
But when I asked him, do you want the government to be shut down? He said no. So I think that it's really this catch 22. The Democrats are in where they wanna feel like the party is fighting, that they're maybe winning the message war, which they're not, but yet they don't wanna shut the government down. They understand that there's limited options to being able to counter Republicans.
Miles Parks
Right. This is one of those leverage points as the minority party is the possibility of being able to force a government shutdown. And, Claudia, Democrats are focusing on health insurance subsidies through the Affordable Care act that are set to expire at the end of the year. Can you rem a little bit about what these subsidies are, how many people rely on them, and what would be the impact if they do expire?
Claudia Grisales
Right. And this kind of goes to Domenico's point, is that those kind of details Democrats haven't really shared readily. So it's kind of hard to follow the argument of the widespread impact they're talking about. I had to dig through a lot of statements from a lot of members to find some numbers and see what they're saying. We know that the House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries, has argued that more than 20 million Americans are on the verge of experiencing rising health care costs because of Republicans refusal to extend the subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year for the Affordable Care Act. But when you look at other Democrats, it's hard to get a sense for the overall impact in terms of how much is this. I saw one member say that the costs could rise by 65% in terms of what families could see in terms of increasing premiums. For example, a family of four making 64,000 a year would see their premiums increase by more than $2,500. But again, it's hard to dig up these details. Democrats are just saying the subsidies need to be extended. But in terms of the specifics and who it's impacting, it's a little harder to find out.
Miles Parks
Interesting. Well, Republicans, my understanding is that they say that they are open to negotiating on these health care subsidies. They just don't want the government to be held hostage, as Vice President J.D. vance put it. What do Democrats say to that? When Republicans say, no, we're open to talking about this, just not as part of this.
Claudia Grisales
Right. Because the stopgap measure that Republicans are pushing does run out before these subsidies expire at the end of the year. This stopgap measure will end in November. So they think they can find time in November to address address it. However, Democrats argue that by then it will be too late for families that are planning on their health care plans for next year and they will either have lost their insurance by the time this takes effect or they're going to be pretty desperate in terms of finding ways to pay for these new premiums.
Miles Parks
Well, and it feels like there is a clear level of broken trust right in Congress. I mean, it might be an understatement. Just also, part of that comes from how, you know, President Trump has operated when it comes to withholding money that Congress, for instance, has allocated, things like that. I feel like, I wonder how much does that play into Democrats being unwilling to take Republicans at their word when they say no, we'll talk about this later.
Claudia Grisales
Yeah, this is a pretty rare shutdown in terms of how much grievance politics is a part of this fight. How do they find their way out of this? That's really difficult. And it just is a signal to, to the rock bottom where Congress is today in terms of bipartisan talks when it comes to the budget. We already saw, for example, Russell Vogt, the head of the Office of Management and Budget, say that you would look at restricting funds for certain places such as New York and maybe trying to cross lines when it comes to the power of the purse. Now, we're not sure that any of this could actually be enacted if they could play favorites in terms of who gets funding where. But we have also seen this administration break lot of boundaries and potentially they may try to break the power of the purse boundary while this shutdown is ongoing, too.
Miles Parks
All right. Well, let's take a quick break and more on all of this when we get back.
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Here at Life Kit, we take advice seriously. We bring you evidence based recommendations. And to do that, we talk with researchers and experts on all sorts of topics because we have the same questions you do, like what's really in my shampoo? Or should I let my kid quit soccer? Or what should I do with my savings in uncertain economic times. You can listen to NPR's Life Kit in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. On NPR's Wildcard podcast, actor Matthew McConaughey says it's important not to over commit.
Domenico Montanaro
Creatively what can happen. And where ambition is led me astray is you end up with a bunch of fricking campfires and no bonfires.
Tamara Keith
Listen or watch that wild card conversation.
Claudia Grisales
On YouTube, the NPR app, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Miles Parks
And we're back. And we've been talking about the government shutdown that begins today. And Claudia, I'm hoping we can zoom in on the real implications that people are going to start feeling in their communities as a result of this shutdown. Can you talk about that a little bit?
Claudia Grisales
Yeah. In terms of what everyday Americans may see, there may be a delayed impact when they see agencies feel that pain from having the lights turned out. Now, for example, the Smithsonian museums will actually stay open another week. So we're seeing agencies try to adjust. But at the same time, hundreds of thousands of federal workers are now furloughed Today. Some have got into work. Maybe they check in remotely and they have a few hours to do an orderly shutdown. That means closing down any kind of loops that they have open, if possible, or sending notifications that they will not be available during this time. And then they are done for, you know, the unforeseeable future depending on how long this shutdown lasts. And so as that trickles down to affect public services, that's when Americans could see impacts, maybe starting next week that could become more clear. At the same time, the workers who are staying on, they've been designated critical employees. They will get paid later. So when it comes to these critical services that will not go, that will not be halted, that includes airport security personnel, air traffic controllers, and also programs like Social Security, Medicare. Those payments will continue to go out and national security programs will stay in place and continue.
Miles Parks
How does the fact that the Trump administration has made it clear that they could potentially use this shutdown as cover to fire more federal workers, how does that play into this? Does that increase, I guess, the urgency for Democrats to potentially get the government funded again? Or how is that playing into this?
Claudia Grisales
Yeah, that's what they're betting on, that it will indeed increase the pressure on Democrats. And that's why Republicans in the Senate are really betting on just a few more Democratic senators folding and joining them to overcome this filibuster. So how that is executed, that will really impact how soon we could see Democrats move differently through this. Right now, they're holding to their demands, but it's really going to be difficult when they start to see firings. This is exactly why they didn't go into allowing a shutdown earlier this year. This was their argument. Schumer and others said that workers would be fired, and they didn't want to see that happen.
Domenico Montanaro
You know, so much of how people get out of shutdowns is because people feel the effects of them and who they wind up blaming for it. So if most of the blame goes toward President Trump, as it did in the 2019 shutdown, that was the longest shutdown in American history, lasted over a month. Then you saw Trump had more of an urgency or a reason to want to have to negotiate with Democrats. If that's not the case this time, then this could go on for quite some time. But if people start to feel like, you know, they're not getting through the airport or they can't go to national parks they want to go to or whatever else winds up happening, and who they blame for that is how you're going to see maybe the pathway for how the country gets out of the government shutdown.
Miles Parks
Well, there is new polling on that, right, Domenico? I mean, what does the new polling out this week say about how people are going to perceive this shutdown?
Domenico Montanaro
And it's from us, the NPR PBS News Marist poll. What it finds is that Republicans would get more of the blame. 38% of people say that they would blame Republicans. 27% say that they would blame Democrats more. And 31%, though, say that they would blame both parties equally. That's very different than 2019. Like I was saying that Trump was getting most of the blame. There was an Ipsos poll, for example, back in that time. 51% said that they were blaming President Trump for the shutdown. So, you know, the problem here is that nobody's really popular, right? Everybody in Washington is seen as not doing their job really well. We talked about Democrats a little bit earlier and the problems that they're having. But Trump has a 41% approval rating. It's his lowest of this second term so far. His base, though, is rock solid, right behind him. 87% say that they back President Trump. Republicans in Congress, only a 35% approval rating. But again, 77% of Republicans back Republicans. The problem really is with Democrats having a 25% approval rating and only having half of your party back you, that makes for a more difficult way to be able to message in Any kind of messaging war, because you wind up not everybody being in lockstep.
Miles Parks
Well, that's what I was gonna ask is, like, how much this poll was taken before the shutdown actually went into effect. So now there's this push from both sides to effectively blame the other for the shutdown. Claudia, can you kind of describe how both sides are messaging on this?
Claudia Grisales
Right. Even though, for example, the House is away from a recess that began last week, we're seeing House leadership make plans to hold daily press conferences to send that message out that Democrats are to blame. Meanwhile, Democrats are doing their own efforts at putting out the message that Republicans are to blame. So it'll be interesting to see if those poll numbers, numbers that Domenico went over, will hold, or will people turn on Democrats and say, listen, I don't fully understand the argument. I don't know how many people are going to be impacted. Can we just end this? And if we remember from the last shutdown, which Domenico mentioned, what brought it to an end was air traffic controllers calling in sick and not showing up and causing actual disruptions in flights. And that's kind of that daily disruption that could really play a role here this time around.
Domenico Montanaro
You know, I think the politics of this are gonna be really fascinating to watch, because in this information age, are press conferences, you know, the way to really break through. I think Democrats in particular have had this. I don't know if it's a word, but I'm gonna make it up. A virality problem. Right. When you open your Instagram feed, you know, it's harder, it seems, for Democrats to break through with their messaging, being able to say what they want, to pick apart for what they think is a problem for how Republicans are handling this. And it's going to be a challenge for them because they've had this challenge since Barack Obama left the White House. And the information atmosphere has completely changed since Obama's left with the social media and all of that. It was a big problem for President Biden, who really wasn't able to get the message out, be able to make the argument. And that's what this is going to be like. Kind of the first example of whether or not Democrats find their voice and find someone or people who are able to really encapsulate what their argument is.
Miles Parks
But I feel like President Trump went viral this week for a video that spread false information and was widely considered to be racist. And yet you're saying that basically it's a problem that Democrats aren't going viral even though President Trump is doing it in a way that is false and.
Domenico Montanaro
Offensive, and that can produce backlash toward Trump as well, which is why his approval rating is as low as it is where you have 31% of independents who say that they approve of the job he's doing. And it's just a base play with the way Trump operates. And that kind of video is not exactly the kind of thing that indicates he's serious about negotiating.
Miles Parks
And we should know, I guess there's an AI video where Chuck Schumer says something that he doesn't actually. Didn't actually say. And Hakeem Jeffries is portrayed with a.
Domenico Montanaro
Sombrero, I think sombrero, a mustache and a mariachi band in the back.
Miles Parks
Yeah, yeah.
Claudia Grisales
And also when it comes to Republicans and messaging, Domenico's right that Democrats have failed with this virality, if I can steal your term issue, but Republicans have not, even when they're spreading false and offensive information. And that video is a great example. And. And Democrats still struggle to keep up with that.
Miles Parks
And we should say the idea that the White House seems to be pushing with this video is that Democrats support paying for health insurance for immigrants without legal status, which, as you said, Claudia, is not accurate. And I think Democrats struggled to push back. But it is a hard thing to debunk at San Francisco.
Domenico Montanaro
And these are serious issues that are, frankly, treated sometimes with a real lack of seriousness. I mean, you're talking about people and getting healthcare, whether they're able to survive and be able to pay for their family, to be able to go to the doctor. It's a very serious thing that sometimes can be boiled down to really superficial points when it comes to our politics.
Miles Parks
Well, we are about a year away from midterms. Any ideas to both of you about how this shutdown will or will not impact midterm results?
Claudia Grisales
Well, I think it's going to be tough in terms of the length of the shutdown. Let's say it lasts a week. It probably won't have much of an impact at all other than reinforcing this argument. As we heard Domenico play that tape from that voter saying that Democrats are spineless. It'll just bolster that argument a little bit more. If this goes on and Democrats do not get a payoff, it could still hurt them as much. But Republicans, at the same time, they could use this as a moment to show that they're still steamrolling Democrats and getting a lot of what they want done.
Domenico Montanaro
You know, I found this fascinating. I went and looked up all of the shutdowns that have happened in the last 50 years. And, you know, Democrats ran the House from 1945 basically all the way through 1995, and they obviously were in control when there were several of these shutdowns. But since 1995, all of the shutdowns that have happened now, seven are when Republicans have controlled the House. The last four have been under President Trump. So how much do people blame Republicans for that to say, hey, you guys have been in charge when these things have happened, or do they punish Democrats for losing the messaging war, let's say? But I think when it comes to the midterms, there's not a huge impact from shutdowns generally toward which party wins in the midterms the next year. 2013 is a good example. You know, 2014, Republicans still were able to win pretty big in those midterms, but you had a Democratic president, and usually the midterms are tough on the party in power. And I think, number one, the economy is still going to be the big issue. Prices, where is all that at in a year?
Miles Parks
Yeah. All right. Well, let's leave it there for today. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.
Claudia Grisales
I'm Claudia Grizales. I cover Congress.
Domenico Montanaro
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
Miles Parks
And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.
Domenico Montanaro
On the next through line from npr.
Tamara Keith
People have real ethical and moral quandaries about this. People are uncomfortable from the very beginning.
Domenico Montanaro
The business of migrant detention.
Tamara Keith
Listen in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
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The NPR Politics Podcast
Episode: No Budging From Congressional Leaders As Government Shutdown Begins
Date: October 1, 2025
This episode covers the first day of the 2025 government shutdown, examining how negotiations broke down, the roots of partisan stalemate, and what the immediate and long-term implications might be for policy, political messaging, and the American public. Hosts Miles Parks, Claudia Grisales, and Domenico Montanaro analyze congressional dynamics, the role of messaging, polling sentiment, and the potential impact on upcoming midterm elections.
[02:21 - 03:51]
"It really signals the deep partisan rift that we're seeing here after months of building distrust and acrimony on Capitol Hill." — Claudia Grisales [02:30]
[03:51 - 05:46]
"I think they're spineless. I really do. I think they're getting run all over by the Republicans. It's just fight back." — Robert Jenkins, voter [05:16]
[05:46 - 07:46]
"Democrats are just saying the subsidies need to be extended. But in terms of the specifics and who it's impacting, it's a little harder to find out." — Claudia Grisales [06:10]
[07:27 - 08:42]
"Democrats argue that by then it will be too late for families that are planning on their health care plans for next year and they will either have lost their insurance ... or they're going to be pretty desperate." — Claudia Grisales [07:46]
[08:19 - 09:34]
"This is a pretty rare shutdown in terms of how much grievance politics is a part of this fight." — Claudia Grisales [08:42]
[10:55 - 12:34]
"Hundreds of thousands of federal workers are now furloughed today [...] they are done for, you know, the unforeseeable future depending on how long this shutdown lasts." — Claudia Grisales [11:08]
[13:35 - 15:35]
"The problem really is with Democrats having a 25% approval rating and only having half of your party back you, that makes for a more difficult way to be able to message in any kind of messaging war." — Domenico Montanaro [14:25]
[15:35 - 19:04]
"In this information age, are press conferences, you know, the way to really break through? I think Democrats in particular have had this— I don’t know if it’s a word, but I’m gonna make it up— a virality problem." — Domenico Montanaro [16:49]
"The idea that the White House seems to be pushing with this video is that Democrats support paying for health insurance for immigrants without legal status, which [...] is not accurate." — Miles Parks [18:48]
[19:22 - 21:11]
"When it comes to the midterms, there’s not a huge impact from shutdowns generally toward which party wins." — Domenico Montanaro [20:08]
On Congressional Approval:
"Democrats in Congress only get a 25% approval rating. And that's because only 48% of Democrats approve of Democrats of the job that they're doing." — Domenico Montanaro [04:36]
On Why Voters are Frustrated:
"I think they're spineless. [...] They're getting run all over by the Republicans." — Robert Jenkins, voter [05:16]
On Messaging Failures:
"Democrats have failed with this virality [...], but Republicans have not, even when they're spreading false and offensive information." — Claudia Grisales [18:29]
On The Seriousness of the Issues:
"These are serious issues that are, frankly, treated sometimes with a real lack of seriousness." — Domenico Montanaro [19:04]
The conversation is measured, analytical, and sometimes wry—occasionally punctuated by frank frustration with the state of gridlock and the ineffectiveness of political messaging. The hosts strive to balance data, political strategy, and real-world impacts, while remaining skeptical of both parties' approaches to resolving the shutdown and communicating with the public.
Summary prepared for listeners seeking a comprehensive, detailed grasp of this pivotal episode's discussions and political context.