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Poll: Most Americans oppose war in Iran, but most Republicans support it
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Hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Myles Parks. I cover voting.
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I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.
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And and I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
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And today on the show, a new NPR PBS News Marist poll shows that most Americans do not approve of the war with Iran. Domenico, let's start there. Tell us more about what this poll found.
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Well, you know, 56% of people said that they oppose the military action in Iran, 36%, only 36% approve of Donald Trump's handling of it. And 55%, a majority, said that Iran represents only a minor threat or no threat at all. And we should say that this poll was conducted during the first week of the bombing.
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B
It's kind of impossible not to hear those numbers and think that sounds very similar to Trump's overall approval rating, right?
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D
It sure does. And I think that we've seen a lot of things this way where the numbers are pretty baked in when it comes to Trump and the kinds of actions that he's taking, especially highly controversial actions where you have a pretty sizable percentage of people who are strongly disapproving of things that he's doing. And then a very locked in portion of his base. More than 80% of Republicans in this survey approve of the military action in Iran and 79% of Republicans approve of the job that he's doing in handling Iran.
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B
That's so interesting, Tam. I mean, Trump ran on this idea of kind of getting America out of these forever wars, very a sort of isolationist message on the campaign trail. Does it surprise you at all that Republicans are so on board with this level of military action?
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C
Polarization is one hell of a drug. And I know we say that a lot, but that's what's happening here. Republicans are backing the president. They are giving him the benefit of the doubt. And also if you listen to the way the president talks about this war, he's not talking about a forever war. On Air Force One, he was asked about boots on the ground, which is another thing that he said was a mistake that had been made by prior administrations. And he said, one, it's not an appropriate question, but two, that if it happened, it would have to be for very good reasons. In essence, he is trying to minimize this war. There were multiple days where administration officials weren't even calling it a war, members of Congress were like, oh, this isn't a war. Don't call it a war. Why are you calling it a war? And now he is both, at the same time saying, we are winning. We will only accept unconditional surrender. And then at the same time, sort of distancing from it.
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It does feel hard to make the sell that this is not going to be a prolonged conflict when regime change has been not an explicit goal, but something that Trump is asking for. And when you kill the leader of a country that has been in power for decades, I don't know, it's hard to imagine that just being kind of a light touch, you know what I mean?
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C
It is explicitly what he has called for. He has said that the Iranian people should rise up and take out the regime. He has sort of been gleeful about the fact that the Supreme Leader was killed and other top political leaders were killed. And, you know, as he's talking about this, he's saying, well, you know, they're just gonna have to cry uncle. And if the ones that are in leadership now don't cry uncle, then we'll take them out and we'll wait for the next ones. One other thing, he has said that he wants to pick the leader, that he wants a good leader. You know, like he is saying that he wants the regime to change.
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Yeah.
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And the new chosen leader is the son of the former Supreme Leader who was killed in these attacks in the early days. So there's no indication here that Iran is gonna be capitulating anytime soon or certainly, you know, giving in to what Trump wants, which is unconditional surrender, as he said. And I think that the biggest thing that can be a negative for this kind of thing overseas, as we've seen over the last 20 plus years of Americans involved in foreign policy conflicts and wars is American deaths and American boots on the ground in particular. So, you know, we have seen seven Americans who were killed in retaliatory attacks by Iran. And if Trump were to commit Americans on the ground in Iran, that's something I think could change the numbers in many cases here.
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Right. I mean, so we're now in the second week of this war, as you mentioned, Domenico, seven Americans have died. Trump has alluded to the fact that there probably will be more deaths on the economic side. We're also starting to see real consequences with gas prices starting to rise this week. Tam, how is the President talking about these consequences as they are starting to pile up?
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Yes, first I should say he did go to Dover Air Force Base for the dignified transfer of the first six soldiers who were killed. And it is really tough to see those flag drape transfer cases coming off the military aircraft. And as a president knowing that you have some responsibility. So he, he certainly was there, he bore witness. Then he came back on Air Force One and said, yeah, this is war. As for gas prices, this has been fascinating because he spent the whole first year of his presidency saying, I'm going to address affordability by driving down gas prices. Look how low those gas prices are. You're going to get $2 a gallon gas and you'll be so happy. And it bring down all these other costs and there'll be follow on effects and it'll be great. And even in his State of the Union address he was talking about how great the gas prices are and in the past week they have just shot up. Prices are up more than 40 cents a gallon for regular. That is a lot. And on Air Force One he was asked, are you worried about gas prices? And he said no, this is an excursion.
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We figured oil prices would go up, which they will.
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They'll also come down, they'll come down very fast and we will have gotten
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rid of a major, major cancer on
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the face of the earth.
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D
Excursion is quite a word to use. I mean going to war is not parasailing.
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C
Yeah. And in fact, during that short Q and A with reporters, he described the war as an excursion three separate times. So it wasn't an accident he was using that word. And I think that the way he has approached this war is the way that he has approached other military interventions that the US government has taken during his second term, which is thinking of it as a short term, low commitment situation. But going into a war with Iran is very different than a one night mission to extract Nicolas Maduro from Venezuela.
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I also think, you know, what is the, what is the outcome and the goal that the United States wants that's better for the world overall? I mean there are potential things that could happen with this kind of attack. It's something that obviously Israel has been interested in for a long time. We've been hearing about, you know, for 20 years or so about Israel potentially wanting to strike inside of Iran. And if Iran were to get some kind of form of democracy, you know, then sure there could be a potential positive outcome. But you know, they also said that about Iraq. Right. And you put in a democracy, then the dominoes will fall across the Middle East. That didn't exactly happen because it's very difficult to do. And it's very difficult to do from the air. It's much harder to do than if you were to have boots on the ground. And even with boots on the ground, like the United States had in Iraq, eventually, you know, you leave. Right. I mean, Afghanistan is the perfect example of that. Where the United States was there for a long time, was helping run things, was trying to stand up, governments did stand up, governments then left, and the Taliban is back in charge.
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I want to dig in a little bit more to how Americans feel about all of this. We talked a second ago about how the approval of this military conflict, this war, kind of tracks very similarly to how people feel about Trump more broadly. But is there anything else under the hood, Domenico, in terms of demographic subgroups that caught your eye as part of this?
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Yeah. I mean, obviously, younger voters are the ones that stand out most as far as being most against action here. Those are 18 to 29. Almost two thirds of them oppose. And it's kind of interesting, the more you go up in age, the less resistance there is. But across all age groups, majorities, even if slim majorities, 60 and older, 51% were opposed to this military intervention as well. Look for a lot of things for Trump. He's lost independence, he's lost Latinos. Only 38% of independents support this action. And there's a huge split among men and women and among whites with and without college degrees. I mean, whites with college degrees, 61% are opposed to this military action. States without college degrees, 53% are in support of this action. And look, that's a huge divide that we've seen for the last decade since Trump has been on the scene, too.
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Does any of this, I guess, make a difference, Tam, in how Trump behaves moving forward? I'm thinking about what this is going to mean for his decision making on foreign policy goals. He teased recently about Cuba might be next, essentially. And I guess I wonder, as we see poll numbers that show the majority of Americans don't approve of this action, we will that temper some of those impulses?
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I'm not sure that it will. I mean, if he was worried about public approval of this war, then he would have tried to sell it to the public before it was launched. Traditionally, presidents, administrations have both tried to sell military action to the American people and to the broader world and allies. President Trump really didn't do that. This is a moment in politics, and certainly this second Trump term, where he doesn't do a lot of explaining and figures the base will be with him. And you know what, our numbers prove it out. The base is with him. So I guess what I would say is this may take some time for him to figure out whether he can extract himself from this the way he did from other excursions. And I don't think that Cuba is off the table at all because he's still talking about it.
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If there's anything that moves Trump beyond declines within his base, it's the stock market. And what we've seen in the stock market has been a fairly sharp decline over the past week or so. You know, as of the Thursday before the United States started bombing in Iran, the Dow was almost at 50,000, was 49,000, almost 500. Now it's at 47,000. All right. That's a pretty big drop in a very short period of time. And if that kind of thing continues and gas prices continue to go up, I think that's the kind of thing that pauses the kind of action that Trump will be doing and something that he'll be looking for an off ramp and to sell a win.
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All right, let's take a quick break and more on all of this in just a moment. This message comes from NPR sponsor SAP Concur. Latora Jackson, senior manager of finance projects at Atricure, shares how SAP Concur Solutions helped them automate outdated procedures so employees could focus on purposeful work.
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Visit concur.com to learn more. And we're back. So these new poll numbers show that there is still firm support for the Iran war from people who voted for President Trump in 2024. As this conflict continues, is there a line, whether it is the number of American deaths or something else that could potentially move some of these people to not support it?
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Well, I mean, I think that we've talked about the potential, like you said, for American deaths and where that most increases as a possibility is when you have ground Troops. Right. When you have people on the ground, I think that there's a lot of scar tissue in this country from the casualties that the United States took on during the Iraq war. And the Iraq war back in 2006 was spiraling into civil war. And we saw President George W. Bush's approval rating back then just nosedive. So I think that's the kind of thing that Americans are very leery of. Air campaigns, strikes from the sea, without retaliatory measures on the homeland. And that's a big if. Right? If that were to continue to be the case, then we probably see the numbers stay as they are. But if that were to change and American commitments started to grow, including with Americans on the ground in Iran, deaths, counts rising and potential attacks on the homeland, that's where I think you see some of these numbers really drop.
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The risk is mission creep. But of course, we are a week and a half into this, and so it's very early. And I think that the voters that I've spoken to are willing to give the President a chance, just as they are willing to give him a chance to write the course on affordability. When someone votes for a president of the United States, and especially when that president is someone like Donald Trump, who is this just sort of outsized figure in people's lives and is part of the culture and everything else, people are sort of reluctant to say, man, I made a mistake.
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I will say, though, the numbers in our poll are not good for the president. I mean, just. They're just stable. Just given the fact that Republicans are backing him doesn't mean that the American public is overall thinking this is a good idea. And he faces a very skeptical audience on a lot of different fronts. I mean, his approval rating for foreign policy in our last survey last month was 36%. His approval for the Iran war, 36%. His approval on the economy, also in the 30s, that's pretty bad. When your approval rating for domestic and foreign policy is in the 30s, when people say that the economy and prices are their top concern and oil prices are going up because of this war, these are a lot of things that start to compound and pile on not just the president, but his party in a midterm election year.
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Yeah, that is the. One of the things that has really puzzled me is obviously President Trump isn't going to be on the ballot in November. So I can see how he could just not care that much about his approval rating and figure it's all baked in because, no, you know, Democrats are never going to like him, and Republicans are always going to like him, but there are other political consequences.
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Well, I want to zoom in on this idea. Baked in, I feel like, is the phrase we use over and over again when it comes to these poll numbers, which I think is really interesting. I, but I want to dig into that a little bit. For the people who do oppose this action in Iran, are there ways to bring these people back into the fold to get them to support this military action? Is it just the fact that President Trump has done kind of a scattershot approach on messaging about this, and is it a, is it a messaging problem? Are there specific outcomes that, if they were to come true, would get people more in favor of this action? Or is it just, I don't like Trump, so I don't like anything he does on the kind of world stage.
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I think you also have to add the element of there are a fair number of people in this country who also don't like war, and they don't like war, no matter who the president is. But certainly Trump being the president does affect people's views as well.
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I mean, there are outcomes that could make people at least not be more negative toward the president. But I don't know that you're going to have much change when it comes to the people who view this negatively becoming more positive toward Trump. I mean, independence maybe perhaps a little bit could improve. If, let's say, and this is a humongous, if that doesn't seem very likely, that you wind up with a better regime in Iran, you know, and the United States doesn't stay in a prolonged way, then maybe people will look back on it and say, yeah, maybe it was a good thing. But if that doesn't happen and you wind up with a similar regime to the one that was there in the first place, as Trump himself said, that's possible. Right. And that that would be a bad outcome.
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What about, I guess, in the short term, how this impacts midterms? Because we always talk about how foreign policy generally is not something that is top of mind for voters. But I do wonder if a conflict like that could change things.
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You know, one of the things that voters have been saying repeatedly is that they feel that the president is focused on the wrong priorities or the president isn't focused on the most important priorities. And all of these swing voters I've been talking to, even though they generally are favorable towards the president, they all say their number one issue is the economy. And so we are going to see voters making decisions based on how they feel about the economy and people don't feel great. And, and the thing about gas prices is most people drive by a gas station every day and they see what the price is. And if the price is going up, it can put you in a sour mood. One thing that I keep thinking about with the midterms, though, just like the president's numbers are baked in, there also just aren't that many swing districts. So there aren't that many people running for office who have a lot to worry about. But those that are in swing districts or those that are in states with a Senate race where in theory it should be a red state, but maybe not so much those people have something to worry about.
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Well, and in the last couple of months, the landscape for the midterm elections, the number of competitive seats has actually opened up a little bit. You've seen more Republican seats move from things like solid to likely or likely to lean when it comes to the CACO political report. And that's a warning sign for Republicans. You're continuing to see the number of retirements go up and there's more Republicans who are retiring than Democrats. That's another warning sign. And then when you have, as Tam said, a president who people are saying is not focused enough on the top concern that they have, then that's a major problem for the president and the party in power. The one thing I would note is that Trump is not on the ballot, as Tam said. And I think that the way he's looking at things as somebody who's going to be 80 years old and is term limited, is what is his legacy. And even though people don't look at foreign policy as a top concern, immediately in their minds, presidents often view how they appear on the world stage to be a legacy burnishing thing. So being able to go out there and change regimes that were dictatorial, to be more Democratic, let's say, or more pro Western, that's something that Trump, I think, has his eye on for his own legacy and how he's written into the history books.
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Well, and when you talk about legacy, the phrase that he uses for so many things is other presidents didn't do this. This has been a problem in this case for 47 years. Other presidents didn't do this. I'm doing it. The White House has needed a ballroom for 150 years. Other presidents didn't do it. I'm doing it. I realize those are vastly different things, but those are actually two things that have a huge amount of the president's focus and attention.
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Well, I Wonder how much Also was the president banking on some sort of. We see this a lot in previous American conflicts where there is sort of a uniting, at least initially, moment where the country does support the president in conflict time. Why hasn't that happened? Hear so much.
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D
I think that the views of Trump are, what is the word phrase baked in? I think that that's absolutely the case. And I don't think that people see the threat in the way that Trump and the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, are trying to bill it to be. What was the triggering event would still continue to be my question for the president and the administration that led them to this, you know, because you've been hearing for a long time that you don't want to have an Iran with a nuclear weapon, but what was the event? If there was some kind of cataclysmic event that triggered this, that started in a way that harmed Americans or looked like it could be a major harm to Americans, then I think you see more of a rally around the flag effect or rally around the president effect. But this, a lot of people are wondering what was, was the reason. And those reasons have been shifting.
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And just to go back to this thing that I have not been able to stop thinking about since the president first put out that video announcing the action. They didn't build the case. They have not created an environment where people say, oh my gosh, this is going to require sacrifice. But it's worth it because the president and the administration explained why it was absolutely necessary at this moment. They never built people up for the sacrifice. And now the sacrifice is happening.
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I mean, Tam, the White House has been saying, I feel like for most of President Trump's second term that the president was going to focus more on domestic issues. Do we have any sense on whether that's happening or whether numbers like these poll numbers we're talking about are going to motivate him to start doing that?
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Yeah, I mean, at least since October, they have been promising that he is going to travel to do lots of economic speeches in states that are going to be important to the midterms. And he is going to Ohio this week. On Wednesday, he's going to Cincinnati area. In theory, he will be making an economic address there. But the president has put a lot of his domestic focus actually on something called the SAVE act, or he's calling it the Save America act, which would require proof of citizenship in order to vote, to register to vote. And in fact, over the weekend, in amongst social media posts about a lot of different things, including the war. He said that as president, he will not sign other bills until this is passed. The problem is it doesn't have the votes in the Senate to make it over a filibuster. But the president is really beating this drum and at the moment making it the centerpiece of his entire agenda for Congress for what remains of the second year.
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Is that, I mean, this fixation on the rules of the election, is that an indication that President Trump is worried, I guess, about the results if the rules of voting stay the same?
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I will remind you, and you don't need reminding that in the State of the Union address, he talked about the SAVE act and he explicitly said that Democrats can only win if they cheat. So he is laying groundwork for something. He is certainly laying groundwork for something. And you know, this also comes in the context, as we talked about before, of this comes in the context of a redistricting effort to try to tilt the field in favor of Republicans. Ultimately, that isn't working out the way he intended. But all of these are indications that he's worried that he does not want his second term to be halted. He doesn't want his agenda halted. He doesn't want his administration to be mired in investigations. And if Democrats win, that's exactly what's going to happen.
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Yeah, it does feel like in some respects he's sort of feeling like it's a fait accompli, that he's going to lose the House, that Republicans are going to lose the House. And he's setting up as Tam is talking about, you know, this reason for it happening, which is that quote, unquote, Democrats cheat rather than just what happens in every midterm election as he has laid out in many midterm elections, especially
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when there's an unpopular president.
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Yeah, it's even worse when a president's unpopular.
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All right, we can leave it there for today. The political news seems to be moving especially fast these days, but this podcast is here to help you keep up. Make sure to hit the follow button so you do not miss an episode in your favorite podcast app. I'm Myles Parks. I cover voting.
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I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.
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And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
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And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.
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