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- [00:00]
Miles Parks
This message comes from Carvana. With Carvana Value Tracker, you can track your car's value anytime, anywhere. Carvana will even let you know when your car's value changes with updated emails. However you value your car, know its worth with Carvana Value Tracker.
- [00:17]
Mara Liasson
Hi, this is Nikki in Westminster, Maryland, and I'm getting ready to vote in my first presidential election.
- [00:23]
Miles Parks
This podcast was recorded at 12:37pm on Friday, November 1, 2024.
- [00:29]
Mara Liasson
Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I will have cast my ballot. Okay, here's the show. Congratulations.
- [00:39]
Miles Parks
I'm loving all these early voting timestamps. Very exciting. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.
- [00:46]
Domenico Montanaro
I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
- [00:49]
Mara Liasson
And I'm Mara Liasson, senior national political correspondent.
- [00:52]
Miles Parks
And before we dive in, hit the follow button wherever you're listening to us so you can get notified whenever we have a new episode. It's the final Friday before Election Day and today on the show we're talking about how the two presidential candidates can win, specifically which states, assuming that all of the safe Democratic and Republican states go the way most people think they're going to go, which swing states each candidate needs to win to actually win the presidency. Domenico, let's start with Kamala Harris. What is the most straightforward path for her to win next week?
- [01:23]
Domenico Montanaro
Well, for her to win next week, you know, she needs to win everywhere that she's favored. And if she were to add to those the toss up blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, that would get her right to 270 electoral votes. And certainly that's where her campaign is focused because that's where she's been polling best and where some of the demographics and history have helped them there.
- [01:43]
Miles Parks
And I gather that there is a sense from the ad spending that that is also where the Harris campaign is focused. Is that right?
- [01:49]
Domenico Montanaro
You know, the ad spending has been incredible. Pennsylvania has been the state with the most ad spending. We've seen almost $600 million spent in Penns on the presidential race. When you combine everything else that's happening in the state Senate House races, county commissioner seats, $1.2 billion has been spent on political ads in Pennsylvania. It's the first time any single state has crossed the billion dollar threshold when it comes to political ads. So yeah, a lot of money spent in those key states.
- [02:22]
Miles Parks
And Mara, it feels like all of the swing states right now, the polling averages have them very, very close. Can you tell us a little bit about what that means for what we can day when it comes to challenges as well.
- [02:34]
Mara Liasson
Well, I think Pennsylvania is kind of the whole ball game, no matter which way you look at it. It's where Donald Trump has focused most of his legal efforts to question the results. It sounds like he is getting ready to challenge Pennsylvania because he needs Pennsylvania and so does she. It's very, very hard to imagine a path to 270 electoral votes if Kamala Harris doesn't win Pennsylvania or if Donald Trump doesn't win it.
- [02:59]
Domenico Montanaro
Yeah, there's two things that have to happen in this election. Either Donald Trump is going to have to win one of those blue wall states to be able to win either Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania. He's got to win one of them. The math just doesn't add up otherwise. Or Harris has to win one of Pennsylvania, North Carolina or Georgia. The math doesn't add up for her either if she doesn't win one of those places. So that's where the intersection is, is Pennsylvania.
- [03:23]
Mara Liasson
Well, wait a minute. I want to just understand something. Kamala Harris can lose Pennsylvania and make up for it with just one other state.
- [03:31]
Domenico Montanaro
No, I'm saying when you look at those three states, she has to win at least one of Pennsylvania, North Carolina or Georgia and then add to that the other states. But without winning one of those three states, there's no path for her, no matter what she does everywhere else in the country.
- [03:47]
Mara Liasson
I see. Okay.
- [03:48]
Miles Parks
As you mentioned, Domenico, the most straightforward path for the Vice President to win is this. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. And I wonder, Mara, as you've been watching Vice President Harris on the campaign trail, have you seen her tailor her message specifically to those blue wall states?
- [04:03]
Mara Liasson
I don't think that her message is tailored to specifically the blue wall states. I think these battleground states have shown that most of them voters care about the economy. Number one, her goal and her task in each of these states is to make it be a referendum on Donald Trump and to make him be the bad change and her the good change. Because we know Americans are very unhappy with the status quo. They want to change cand. And what she's been doing is making a more explicit contrast between her and Trump. He has an enemies list. I have a to do list. And you could hear it in this big speech she gave on the Ellipse on Tuesday night. And it was pretty Trump focused.
- [04:45]
Nikki Haley
We know who Donald Trump is. He is the person who stood at this very spot nearly four years ago and sent an armed mob to the United States Capitol to overturn the will of the people in a free and fair election, an election that he knew he lost. Americans died as a result of that attack. 140 law enforcement officers were injured because of that attack. And while Donald Trump sat in the White House watching as the violence unfolded on television, he was told by his staff that the mob wanted to kill his own vice president. And Donald Trump responded with two words. So what, America? That's who Donald Trump is, and that's who is asking you to give him another four years in the Oval Office, not to focus on your problems, but to focus on his.
- [06:07]
Domenico Montanaro
Certainly that's a huge part of her final campaign message, which is to say that you can't trust him and that he's unqualified to be president. In a lot of ways, it's a coda to what Joe Biden was running on. And at the end of the day here, as these polls have tightened, her campaign just sees drawing that contrast as a red line. Something that the people who don't like Donald Trump, but might not be sold on voting for her, they're trying to say, this is what you need to understand for what's at stake here.
- [06:34]
Mara Liasson
You know, the Harris campaign is hoping that to independents, to Haley voters, to people who are still undecided, January 6th matters to them in a way that it might not matter to other voters.
- [06:42]
Miles Parks
Okay, that's interesting, Mark, because that's where I was going to go is I feel like I keep seeing all these issue polls that find that democracy, or the concept of democracy, is not super high up on swing state voters minds. But you're saying that like it's seems like there is this subset of voters that they're targeting with this kind of message.
- [06:57]
Mara Liasson
Yes, I think there is a subset of voters. And look, the economy is number one for every voter. It always is. But for the hundreds of thousands of people who voted for Nikki Haley after she had dropped out of the race in the Republican primary when they could have voted for Donald Trump, that tells you something, and it tells you that they are still not comfortable with voting for Trump again. Now, the vast majority of those voters are going to vote for Donald Trump because they're Republicans, but enough of them are still up for grabs. Her campaign believes that this message will work for them.
- [07:27]
Miles Parks
One last thing on Harris's path, Domenico. In 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by 7 million votes. And still a number of these swing states were really, really close. I'm wondering, is that the kind of dynamic that is still at play, that for Harris to win, she needs to run up the total in the popular vote.
- [07:45]
Domenico Montanaro
Well, I mean, the popular vote isn't how candidates are elected. But when you look at the country overall, when you talk about, like these national polls, usually a Democrat has to do better than, you know, three or in the national polls because those seven swing states are more conservative than the country at large. There's just more white voters without college degrees who tend to favor Trump. They're older than the national average, less diverse on average, when you look especially at those blue wall states, which is why they've become more competitive for Republicans. So, yeah, Democrat basically has to tip the scale a little bit more on the national popular vote to be able to win in those seven swing states.
- [08:25]
Miles Parks
All right. Let's take a quick break. When we come back, we're going to hear about the former president's closing arguments and his path to victory.
- [08:33]
Domenico Montanaro
This is Ira Glass of this American Life. Each week on our show, we choose a theme, tell different stories on that theme. All right, I'm just going to stop right there. You're listening to an NPR podcast. Chances are you know our show. So instead I'm going to tell you we've just been on a run of really good shows lately, some big, epic, emotional stories and some weird, funny stuff, too. Download us this American Life.
- [08:57]
Mara Liasson
Okay, so does this sound like you, you love NPR's podcasts. You wish you could get more of all your favorite shows, and you want to support NPR's mission to create a more informed public. If all that sounds appealing, then it is time to sign up for the NPR Bundle. Learn more at + NPR the code switch team spent Election Day talking to folks about how the outcome might impact them. It's a time capsule of people's hopes and fears before they knew the results. One way or another, there's a change coming.
- [09:32]
Domenico Montanaro
I wanted to vote for Trump, but.
- [09:34]
Miles Parks
I voted for her.
- [09:35]
Domenico Montanaro
Gays for Trump.
- [09:36]
Mara Liasson
I cried this morning. I've been crying on and off. I'm terrified. Listen to Code Switch, the podcast about race and identity from npr.
- [09:45]
Miles Parks
And we're back. And so let's talk a little bit about former President Donald Trump's path to victory. Domenico, I always imagine you with the whiteboard, like, circling a bunch of stuff, pointing at different things, telling us the numbers. What is the most realistic path for Donald Trump to win? And I'm just gonna visualize that as you're talking.
- [10:00]
Domenico Montanaro
Okay. Well, I mean, he could certainly win Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina and he would not have to win any of the other swing states, provided he wins Everywhere else that he's favored, and he would get right to 270 electoral votes. I call that the eastern swee, Trump. So Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, those are the three states that the Trump campaign has invested heavily in. And they know that if they win all three of those, it's basically game over.
- [10:26]
Miles Parks
All right, Domenico, So that's the eastern sweep. But Trump has another path to victory, right?
- [10:31]
Domenico Montanaro
He does, and it's the same one as Kamala Harris, but instead of the blue wall, let's call it building the wall, the red wall. And it's something that Trump did in 2016, winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. They're certainly aiming for those as well. It's not like they're selling out completely and just putting all their money on Pennsylv, North Carolina and Georgia. They're spending a ton of money, too, on Michigan and Wisconsin, and they think it's very possible that they could win all three of those as well. And doing that and winning one Sunbelt state in addition to those three would get Trump over 270.
- [11:04]
Mara Liasson
So, Domenico, is it fair to say that what Donald Trump has to do to get to that path is to turn out a lot of voters who really like him but don't have a history of turning out to vote? They're low propensity voters.
- [11:17]
Domenico Montanaro
I think this is one of the big tests for Trump in this election to see if he can sort of replicate what he did in 2020, but be able to get over the top with some of those, you know, maybe Latino voters, younger black voters, to sort of make up the margins. Because as you say, this is a shrinking pool when it comes to rural voters, white, non college voters, but I think that is the key for him. Do these voters who tend to be lower propensity voters, meaning that they vote at lower rates than white voters with college degrees, do they defy what's likely to be the national turnout? Tre? And every expert will say that turnout likely this time will be down slightly from what it was in 2020, just by fact that there's less male voting in every state, like there was universally pretty much in 2020. And usually the voters who are lower propensity wind up following the trend of voting going down. So we'll see if he's able to get those voters to turn out. But that is the focus of the Trump turnout effort is going after what campaigns see as 0, 1 and 2 voters. Those people who they rate as on a scale of 0 to 5 as being high or low likelihood to vote, 0 being the lowest, they're focused on those voters, the voters who the Republican National Committee in the past has seen as inactive voters, they're really trying to turn them out, which is why we haven't seen Trump really change his message very much because he's aimed squarely at the folks who have voted for him before and the ones that he wants to.
- [12:46]
Mara Liasson
And, you know, there is a theory about his extreme rhetoric that it's not just him letting loose and being undisciplined, but the more he can scare an angry, anger, low propensity voters, the more he can turn them out.
- [12:58]
Domenico Montanaro
Well, anger is a huge motivator in elections, no doubt about it. Yeah.
- [13:00]
Mara Liasson
And extreme rhetoric can do that.
- [13:02]
Miles Parks
Well, for people who are going to be watching on Tuesday night who are kind of tuning in right as polls close, Domenico, I'm wondering, is there one state early that you're going to be watching to kind of start to get a read on what is happening in the broader electorate?
- [13:14]
Domenico Montanaro
I think two places, you know, we'll watch Virginia and Georgia. They close fairly early. Virginia is not necessarily a swing state. It's a lean Democratic state. But there are areas in Virginia that where the polls kind of close early in rural southwest Virginia and sort of the suburban areas outside Richmond and Virginia beach that are going to tell us probably whether or not Trump has been successful in being able to turn out these rural voters in the way that he wants to. Because, you know, if all politics has kind of become national, these trends we've been seeing over the last couple election cycles have actually translated to elsewhere in the country. So that's where I'd be watching to start off, as well as, you know, those Atlanta metro metro area counties and some of the rural Georgia counties that are going to tell us a little bit about what could happen across the country.
- [14:07]
Miles Parks
It doesn't seem like to me, Mara, that he is moving towards trying to get these undecided middle voters at this point. Is that a fair assessment?
- [14:17]
Mara Liasson
Yes. Donald Trump throughout this whole campaign has never moved to the center, tried to appeal to the Nikki Haley voter. He has really doubled down to try to get his base out. And his rhetoric, his closing message has gotten more and more distilled. Some people would say extreme, more violent rhetoric. He's talked about using the military against the enemy within. He's been very specific about who the enemy within is. He's named Adam Schiff, Nancy Pelosi. And now his latest target was Liz Cheney, very famously Republican, conservative Republican who has broken with him. And here's what he had to say about her. And he starts out by talking about her dad, Dick Cheney.
- [15:00]
Donald Trump
And I don't blame him for sticking with his daughter, but his daughter is a very dumb individual. Very dumb. She's a radical war hawk. Let's put her with a rifle, standing there with nine barrels shooting at her. Okay. Let's see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face. You know, they're all war hawks when they're sitting in Washington in a nice building saying, oh, gee, will let send 10,000 troops right into the mouth of the enemy. But she's a stupid person. And I used to have. I'd have meetings with a lot of people and she always wanted to go to war with people.
- [15:39]
Mara Liasson
You know, Liz Cheney did respond. She posted on X, quote, this is how dictators destroy free nations. They threaten those who speak against them with death. We cannot entrust our country and our freedom to a petty, vindictive, cruel, unstable man who wants to be a tyrant. But there you have it. That's the closing message for Donald Trump.
- [15:58]
Domenico Montanaro
It's certainly an extreme message. He's also, you know, in that clip, they're targeting women. I mean, the way that he talks about, you know, Liz Cheney as, quote, unquote, dumb is certainly the kind of thing that he has said about women.
- [16:10]
Mara Liasson
Well, and Kamala Harris over and over again, absolutely.
- [16:13]
Domenico Montanaro
And, you know, he has said that he wants to protect women, quote, whether they like it or not. It's almost as if his campaign showed him the numbers of how this could be the widest gender gap in history. Not sure that that's going to really close the gender gap much at all.
- [16:28]
Miles Parks
Well, in 2020, on election night, Trump did claim victory long before the race was called. Are you guys expecting that dynamic again?
- [16:38]
Domenico Montanaro
Pennsylvania is one of those states, as you know, Miles, covering voting, that could take a little bit longer to call, especially if it's within a point. And in that chaos, Trump is going to fill the void. He's going to say that he won. And I think that people should just be prepared for the fact that these things take a while. You know, the election wasn' for really a couple days after the last election in 2020. That's what we should expect. Tuesday is really the start of things, not the end of things. And I think it's highly unlikely we're going to know a winner at 11 o'clock on election night, unless Trump wins by more than a point in each of these swing states, because I think he's going to definitely declare victory. Say that there was fraud and be able to, you know, kind of just push that same message that he's been pushing for, frankly, the last four years.
- [17:23]
Miles Parks
All right. Well, let's leave it there for now. Lots more to talk about next week as voting concludes. We'll be right back with our favorite part of the show, can't Let It Go.
- [17:34]
Domenico Montanaro
If you need a moment to catch your breath and calm your nerves, listen to the latest All Songs Considered from NPR Music. We've got an all new mix of songs to slow the blood and recalibrate your day. Plus reflections on gratitude, joy and the power of kindness. Listen to new episodes of All Songs Considered Every Tuesday, wherever you get podcasts.
- [17:55]
Mara Liasson
NPR brings you the updates you need on the day's biggest headlines.
- [17:59]
Domenico Montanaro
The Senate narrowly passed the debt ceiling bill that will prevent the country from defaulting on its loans.
- [18:05]
Mara Liasson
Stories from across the world. Knowing how to forage and to live with the land is integral to unise culture. And down your block from CPR news, this is Colorado Matters and you can find all of that and more in your pocket. Download the NPR app today.
- [18:27]
Miles Parks
And we're back. And it's time to end the week like we do every week with Can't Let It Go, where we talk about the things we just cannot let go of, politics or otherwise. Mara, why don't we start with you?
- [18:36]
Mara Liasson
My Can't Let It Go. This week is about Halloween in Des Moines, Iowa. I did not know that Halloween in Des Moines, Iowa was celebrated in a different way than in the rest of the country since around 1940. The Halloween themed festivities take place on October 30th, and they're known as Beggars Night. And they were introduced because there was too much vandalism that was occurring on Halloween. So the city fathers and Des Moines and surrounding communities decided that they would have something called Beggars Night the night before Halloween. And the tradition was that children would be allowed to go door to door under adult supervision. And in order to get a treat, they would have to perform a trick like telling a or reciting a riddle or a poem. But at the actual Halloween, October 31st would be reserved for family festivities, generally in the house. And this changed this year because there was a bad weather report that there was going to be a giant storm the day before Halloween. So they moved Beggar's Night from Wednesday to Thursday. And that means that kids in Des Moines celebrated Halloween on the same night as everyone else did this year.
- [19:47]
Miles Parks
Wow.
- [19:48]
Domenico Montanaro
I wonder if that'll stay that way. I was, I was Wondering if you were going to say that they do something differently. Like, you know, they have really sweet actual corn and they call that candy corn.
- [19:58]
Mara Liasson
Those are all the other holidays.
- [19:59]
Miles Parks
I do kind of like the idea of trick or treat being a little bit more transactional. I kind of feel like when the kids come up to my door, I am. A little poem or some sort of song would be kind of nice. I do feel like there's, like, they just expect me to throw those candy bars in there and like, some sort of earning it would feel a little bit better.
- [20:16]
Domenico Montanaro
I thought you were going to say that. Why aren't we allowed to play tricks? They ask for one or the other.
- [20:20]
Mara Liasson
Well, I guess they want nice tricks.
- [20:23]
Miles Parks
All right, Domenico, what can't you let go of?
- [20:26]
Domenico Montanaro
I can't let go of New York baseball. Everyone knows, I think that I'm a Mets fan. And if I sound a little giddy about the fact that the New York Yankees lost in the World Series.
- [20:36]
Mara Liasson
Ooh, negative partisanship.
- [20:37]
Domenico Montanaro
To the Los Angeles Dodgers and only won one game, while the Mets won two from them and beat the Yankees four times this year. You know, I think a lot of people are saying, many people are saying that the Mets are probably the second best team in baseball this year. Sorry, Yankees.
- [20:53]
Mara Liasson
Boy, that's a lot of sports Schadenfreude.
- [20:55]
Miles Parks
How many times, how many times in the last hundred years have you been able to say the Mets are better than the Yankees? It's probably counted on, like, one hand, right?
- [21:02]
Domenico Montanaro
You know what? And the fact that they have been so nice to me over the years, whether it's my brother or my father or everybody else who decides that they want to treat us like we're their little brother. You know, your whole family is Yankees.
- [21:15]
Miles Parks
Fans except for you.
- [21:16]
Domenico Montanaro
Yeah. And we grew up two miles from the old Shea Stadium, so I could see the glow of the lights of. From the Mets games from my bedroom, literally. But the front runners in my family have decided to be Yankees fans, which is fine. But I think we're heading in trending upward, I would say, in ours. And theirs is, you know, I'd be concerned. Something. I know you can get behind as a Rays fan, right?
- [21:39]
Miles Parks
Oh, my God. I mean, I spent my childhood being mad at the Yankees, but, yeah, the frontrunner thing is real.
- [21:45]
Domenico Montanaro
Yeah, we'll see what happens. Well, anyway, Miles, what can you not let go of?
- [21:49]
Miles Parks
So the thing I cannot let go of is in our household. I don't know if you guys have ever watched the Netflix show Love is Blind.
- [21:54]
Domenico Montanaro
Oh, yeah.
- [21:55]
Miles Parks
You aware of this? So the most recent season was D.C. love is blind. So we have been enjoying it over the last couple weeks, and I've been really enjoying trying to, like, pick out landmarks for the restaurants they're in and stuff like that. It's felt very, very close to home. And then the other day I went to basketball. I played a pickup basketball game, and I found out that one of the guys who I play basketball with used to date one of the girls who's a contestant on Love is Blind, which was like the most mind blowing, exciting moment for me that I felt, like, very, I was like, oh, my God. Like, I'm like two degrees away from being on reality tv. And then that made me think, like, maybe somebody from love is blind. D.C. listens to the podcast and I just wanted to do a call out and say, if you were on Love is Blind, DC do a timestamp, hit us up. I just, like, I don't know, it just like, opened my mind. I'm like, these are real people in my city. So I just wanted to say, you know, hit me up, guys. I would love to, love to meet you.
- [22:50]
Domenico Montanaro
And just so everyone knows, Miles is taken.
- [22:52]
Miles Parks
Oh, I am taken. 100%.
- [22:53]
Domenico Montanaro
It sounded a little bit like, oh.
- [22:55]
Miles Parks
My God, I want to be a part of this. I just, oh, my God. Oh, my God. No, no, no. This is purely, I just think it's kind of entertaining. It's an entertaining premise. I've never met somebody who's been on reality tv, so I would love to hear about it. Thank you very much, Domenico. And that is a wrap for this week. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our producers are Jung Yoon Han, Casey Morrell, and Kelly Wessinger. Special thanks to Krishnadev Kalamer. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.
- [23:26]
Domenico Montanaro
I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
- [23:28]
Mara Liasson
And I'm Mara Liasson, senior national political correspondent.
- [23:32]
Miles Parks
And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.
- [23:42]
Domenico Montanaro
Listen to this podcast sponsor free on.
- [23:44]
Mara Liasson
Amazon Music with a Prime membership or.
- [23:46]
Domenico Montanaro
Any podcast app by subscribing to NPR Politics+@plus.NPR.org that's plus.NPR.org.