The NPR Politics Podcast: Roundup – What It Will Take To Get To 270 Electoral Votes
Recorded at 12:37 PM on Friday, November 1, 2024
Introduction
In the final Friday before Election Day, Miles Parks, Domenico Montanaro, and Mara Liasson delve into the strategic maneuvers both presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, must undertake to secure the necessary 270 electoral votes for victory. The discussion provides an in-depth analysis of key swing states, campaign strategies, and potential election day dynamics.
Electoral Paths to 270
Kamala Harris’ Path to Victory
Domenico Montanaro outlines Harris's most straightforward route to the presidency:
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Winning Favored States: Harris needs to secure her traditionally supportive states.
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Toss-Up Blue Wall States: Crucial to her path are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Winning any of these states, in addition to her favored ones, would propel her to the 270-electoral-vote threshold.
"She needs to win everywhere that she's favored. And if she were to add to those the toss-up blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, that would get her right to 270 electoral votes."
— Domenico Montanaro (01:22)
Donald Trump’s Route to Victory
Montanaro identifies two primary pathways for Trump:
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Eastern Sweep:
- Key States: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
- Strategy: Secure these three states to reach 270 electoral votes without needing additional swing states.
"He could certainly win Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina and he would not have to win any of the other swing states, provided he wins everywhere else that he's favored, and he would get right to 270 electoral votes."
— Montanaro (10:00) -
Red Wall Approach:
- Key States: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
- Additional Needs: Win one Sunbelt state to surpass the 270 threshold.
- Strategy: Reclaim the blue wall states while also securing additional conservative-leaning states.
"They’re spending a ton of money, too, on Michigan and Wisconsin, and they think it’s very possible that they could win all three of those as well."
— Montanaro (10:31)
Campaign Strategies and Messaging
Harris’s Campaign Focus
Mara Liasson observes that Harris’s messaging isn't specifically tailored to the blue wall states but centers on broader voter concerns:
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Economic Focus: Emphasizing the economy as the top priority for voters.
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Contrast with Trump: Positioning herself as the good change against Trump's perceived status quo.
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Defining Trump’s Character: Highlighting Trump's past actions to frame him as untrustworthy and unqualified.
"Her goal and her task in each of these states is to make it be a referendum on Donald Trump and to make him be the bad change and her the good change."
— Mara Liasson (04:03)
Trump’s Campaign Messaging
Trump’s strategy leans heavily on mobilizing his base through:
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Extreme Rhetoric: Using strong, sometimes divisive language to galvanize supporters.
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Targeting Specific Individuals: Criticizing notable figures within his party, such as Liz Cheney, to consolidate his base and intimidate dissenters.
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Scare Tactics: Framing the election as a battle for the nation’s future, often invoking themes of internal threats.
"He’s talked about using the military against the enemy within. He’s been very specific about who the enemy within is."
— Mara Liasson (12:27)
Ad Spending and Focus States
Montanaro highlights the significant investment in Pennsylvania:
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Ad Spending in Pennsylvania: Nearly $600 million solely on the presidential race, with total political ad spending reaching $1.2 billion.
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Historical Significance: This is the first instance of a single state surpassing the billion-dollar mark in political ads.
"Pennsylvania has been the state with the most ad spending... it's the first time any single state has crossed the billion-dollar threshold when it comes to political ads."
— Montanaro (01:42)
Potential Election Day Developments
Early Returns and State Watch
Montanaro points to Virginia and Georgia as early bellwethers:
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Virginia: While leaning Democratic, specific regions could indicate Trump’s success in mobilizing rural voters.
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Georgia: Both metropolitan Atlanta and rural areas will provide insights into Trump's voter turnout efforts.
"Virginia is not necessarily a swing state. It's a lean Democratic state. But there are areas... that are going to tell us whether Trump has been successful in being able to turn out these rural voters."
— Montanaro (13:14)
Trump’s Potential Early Claims
Reflecting on the 2020 election dynamics, Montanaro anticipates Trump may prematurely declare victory amidst close results, potentially citing fraud:
> *"Trump is going to fill the void. He’s going to say that he won. And I think that people should just be prepared for the fact that these things take a while."*
— *Montanaro (16:37)*
Can't Let It Go: Personal Stories
Mara Liasson: Halloween in Des Moines, Iowa
Mara shares the unique tradition of Beggars Night in Des Moines, where children must perform a trick like reciting a poem to receive treats. This year, due to a storm, Beggars Night coincided with traditional Halloween festivities.
> *"Kids in Des Moines celebrated Halloween on the same night as everyone else did this year."*
— *Mara Liasson (18:36)*
Domenico Montanaro: New York Baseball
Domenico reveals his allegiance to the Mets over the Yankees, expressing familial and personal reasons for his preference despite the Yankees' historical dominance.
> *"I was really giddy about the fact that the New York Yankees lost in the World Series... the Mets are probably the second-best team in baseball this year."*
— *Montanaro (20:25)*
Miles Parks: Love is Blind Connections
Miles discusses his fascination with the Netflix show "Love is Blind," including a coincidental connection with a local contestant, highlighting his interest in reality TV and community engagement.
> *"I found out that one of the guys who I play basketball with used to date one of the girls who's a contestant on Love is Blind... I just wanted to say, you know, hit me up, guys."*
— *Miles Parks (21:48)*
Conclusion
As Election Day approaches, The NPR Politics Podcast provides listeners with a comprehensive analysis of the strategies both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are employing to secure the presidency. From targeted ad spending in swing states to contrasting campaign messages, the episode paints a clear picture of the high-stakes battle for 270 electoral votes. Additionally, the personal stories in the "Can't Let It Go" segment offer a relatable glimpse into the hosts' lives beyond politics.
Notable Quotes:
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"She needs to win everywhere that she's favored. And if she were to add to those the toss-up blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, that would get her right to 270 electoral votes."
— Domenico Montanaro (01:22) -
"He’s talked about using the military against the enemy within. He’s been very specific about who the enemy within is."
— Mara Liasson (12:27) -
"Kids in Des Moines celebrated Halloween on the same night as everyone else did this year."
— Mara Liasson (18:36)
This summary encapsulates the crucial elements of the podcast episode, providing a thorough overview for those who have yet to listen.