The NPR Politics Podcast

Episode Title: The midterm map is beginning to take shape

Date: February 9, 2026
Hosts: Miles Parks, Stephen Fowler, Domenico Montanaro

Episode Overview

This episode provides an in-depth "temperature check" on the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. The NPR Politics team explores the competitive landscape for both the Senate and the House, examines the record-setting number of congressional retirements, analyzes the impact of redistricting, and spotlights the most significant states and districts to watch via an engaging "NFL-style draft." The discussion is sharp, data-driven, and includes insightful banter on electoral trends, key personalities, and emerging themes—from economic headwinds to generational shifts in Congress.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Midterms Landscape: Senate & House Overview

Speakers: Domenico Montanaro, Miles Parks

• Senate Outlook:

  • Only about 10 of the 33 seats up are truly competitive.
  • "Because Trump is president and J.D. Vance is vice president comes in to break ties...Democrats would need to pick up a gain of four seats." (Domenico, 00:57)
  • Democrats’ path is tough; need a net gain of 4 seats while holding all their current ones.

• House Outlook:

  • Republicans hold a “razor thin majority,” can only afford to lose two seats.
  • The number of competitive districts is at an all-time low, making each one crucial.
  • Trends are currently tipping in Democrats’ favor: "Midterm elections are usually a referendum on the president. Trump has had a really bad month...he's under 40% for his job approval rating" (Domenico, 02:18)
  • Republican turnout challenges—when Trump isn't on the ballot, conservatives are less likely to show up; independents are lining up with Democrats.

2. Record Congressional Retirements and Their Impact

Speakers: Stephen Fowler

• Historic Turnover:

  • "We're up to 63 current members of Congress who say that they don't plan to return to their seat next year...this is a record number." (Stephen, 03:27)
  • Retirements span both parties, but more Republicans are leaving—including high-profile figures like Nancy Pelosi (D), Mitch McConnell (R).

• Reasons for Retiring:

  • Political gridlock, lack of fun in the job, narrow majorities, and bleak prospects for influence—especially for GOP members if Democrats retake the House.
  • Generational change: older Democrats and some Trump-critical Republicans are departing.
  • "There's not really much to look forward to if you're a Republican in Congress these next two years." (Stephen, 05:22)
  • Unusual reversal: “This time we actually have four senators that say they want to...run to be governor of their state.” (Stephen, 05:42)

• Open seats as a bellwether:

  • Open seats are more difficult/expensive for defending parties and are “a bellwether for what happens in the midterm elections.” (Domenico, 06:48)

3. The Shrinking Pool of Competitive House Districts & The Role of Redistricting

Speakers: Miles Parks, Domenico Montanaro

• "That is a tiny number of races to decide the House, when you consider...435 members and basically everything hinges on just this few dozen." (Miles, 08:11)
• The expected “great redistricting war of 2025” netted little change; the projected effects seem to have washed out, though potential Supreme Court action could still upend things in certain states (09:29).

4. Economic & Political Headwinds for Trump

Speakers: Domenico Montanaro

• Economic dissatisfaction is widespread:
  • "A Pew Research center poll...72% of people rated the economy as fair or poor... plurality, 38% said that they expect the economy to get worse." (Domenico, 07:00)
  • "52 to 28% margin respondents said Trump's policies have made things worse than better."

5. NFL-Style 'Draft': Biggest Races and Regions to Watch

Speakers: All

First Pick: Iowa

Stephen Fowler (12:28)

• "State has a potentially competitive Senate race, a competitive governor’s race, three of its four U.S. House districts will likely have competitive races."
• "If you look at Trump's popularity and approval ratings...Iowa is right there at the bottom."

Second Pick: Texas

Domenico Montanaro (14:03)

• Four competitive House seats (three held by Democrats).
• Senate primary: John Cornyn running with a focus on “Sharia law”—a theme reminiscent of post-9/11 GOP politics.
• Memorable quote from Cornyn ad: "No organization that supports terrorists should receive taxpayer benefits and Sharia law has no place in American courts or communities." (Cornyn campaign ad, quoted at 15:14)
• Noted shift in campaign strategies and potential for new faces due to redistricting.

Third Pick: Michigan

Miles Parks (16:34)

• Classic swing state: voted for Trump in 2024, now has a Democratic senator.
• Watching for shift in economic mood and how a fractured Democratic primary could affect the general election.
• “It's going to test a lot of the things we've already been talking about...how the race stands in November.” (16:34)

Fourth Pick: North Carolina

Stephen Fowler (18:06)

• First primary of 2026; gerrymandering and internal Democratic challenges.
• Sleeper issues, e.g., hurricane recovery in western NC.

Fifth Pick: Georgia

Domenico Montanaro (18:58)

• "I think that Senate race is probably the top one to watch..."
• AI & politics: Deepfakes already in use in attack ads.
  • Example: "It had Ossoff saying, 'I don't understand farming because the only time I've ever seen a farm is on Instagram.'" (Domenico, 19:33)
• Recent special elections in Georgia have trended towards Democrats.

Wildcard Picks: Latino-Majority Competitive Districts

Miles Parks (23:14)

• Focus on CA-22, AZ-6, CO-8—districts Trump improved in among Latino voters in 2024.
• "I am just really interested to see what happens now with how this voting bloc specifically is perceiving his increased immigration enforcement."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s job approval drag:

  "Trump has had a really bad month he's been under 40% for his job approval rating in our NPR/PBS News Marist Poll since November."
  — Domenico Montanaro, [02:18]

• On the retirements exodus:

  "We're up to 63 current members of Congress who say that they don't plan to return to their seat next year. Some of them are retirement. Some of them are people who are in the House trying to run for Senate, and some ... for governor"
  — Stephen Fowler, [03:27]

• On the grim economic outlook:

  "A Pew Research center poll ... found 72% of people rated the economy as fair or poor ... 52 to 28% margin respondents said Trump's policies have made things worse than better."
  — Domenico Montanaro, [07:00]

• On redistricting's muted impact:

  “Most analysts at this point seem to think that the great redistricting war of 2025 is not going to actually decide who controls the house in 2026.”
  — Miles Parks, [09:49]

• On use of AI and deepfakes in campaigns:

  "He ran an ad with a deep fake of Jon Ossoff...it had Ossoff saying, 'I don’t understand farming because the only time I’ve ever seen a farm is on Instagram and it looks kind of hokey.'"
  — Domenico Montanaro, [19:33]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Senate & House Midterms Landscape: 00:36 – 03:10
• Retirement Wave & Impact: 03:10 – 06:39
• Redistricting & District Competitiveness: 08:09 – 10:24
• Draft: Key States & Races to Watch: 12:28 – 23:41
• AI/Deepfake Impact in Campaigning: 18:58 – 20:50
• Latino Voter Focused Districts: 23:14 – 24:05

Tone & Takeaway

The episode remains characteristically wonky, conversational, and sharp in its political analysis, exploring complex electoral dynamics while making room for candid assessments ("It’s just not a fun job") and lively rapport (the spontaneous "midterm draft"). Listeners come away with a clear sense of which structural forces and evolving trends will shape the 2026 midterms—and which state (and district) races are truly pivotal.