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From Spider man to a new Steven Spielberg movie, we know the TV and movies you'll want to watch this summer.
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I'm excited about this film.
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I just know suspense, intrigue, aliens.
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And I'm like, all right, Spielberg, I'm in.
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Check out the summer guide from Pop Culture Happy Hour. Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get podcasts.
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Hey, it's Miles. A quick word before we get started today. If the NPR Politics podcast is part of your daily ritual, make it official on the NPR app. You'll hear about every episode. The moment we have it ready, just turn on notifications and we'll handle the rest. See you there. Download the NPR app today. Okay, here's the show. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.
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And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
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And Sylvia Goodman of Kentucky Public Radio is also here with us. Hi, Sylvia. Welcome to the podcast.
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So happy to be here.
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So happy to have you. And today on the show, President Trump's foes, real or perceived, are taking a beating this primary season. Domenico, we saw this again over the weekend in Louisiana with incumbent Republican Senator Bill Cassidy. This is a person who voted to impeach Donald Trump in 2021 and not coincidentally, finished third in his primary on Saturday. What did you make of those results?
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Bill Cassidy has been in so much of kind of being an antagonist to what some of Mag Maga and Maha. By the way, the Make America Healthy Again movement has been running on, whether it's grilling Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Trump's pick to be health secretary or tanking, you know, his surgeon general pick, Casey Means, you know, it's really been somebody who's so high profile with Cassidy that it's really pretty stunning to see that he's actually gone down and that he wound up finishing third. Didn't even make the runoff. He only got 24% of the vote. Congresswoman Julia Letlow, who was Trump's endorsed pick over Cassidy, finished first with 44%. State Treasurer John Fleming, who MAGA didn't really want in the race, the Trump MAGA White House, anyway, he stuck with it. He got about 28%. Now he's heading to a runoff with Let Loud. And that means only two senators who voted for Trump's impeachment back in 2021 are still going to be in in Congress. And that's if, you know, Senator Susan Collins winds up retaining her seat in the Senate and you know that she's in a pretty vulnerable position in Maine.
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Yeah, I feel like President Trump, in many times over the last few years, has promised vengeance against people who have pushed back against him. And we're seeing it in these Senate races. The thing about Louisiana results that caught my eye is I know Louisiana changed their primary system, went from an open primary to a closed primary. Did that impact. Do we have any sense on whether that impacted these results?
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You know, we don't have specific data on how many people might have voted if they're independents or even Democrats who might have been allowed in a totally open primary to vote, how they might have voted. But you can guess pretty clearly that part of the reason why this was closed is because it's more of a purity test and wanting to have more conservative Republicans in there who align 100% with what the party wants. And that means that somebody like Cassidy wouldn't really have a great chance at winning or being able to draw in some of those crossover voters or some of those independents who might not be so maga, or even some Democrats who, you know, might not like what they've seen and decide to give him a boost. Well, he didn't even have that opportunity to try to get those voters.
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Well, Sylvia, I feel like this idea of the sort of Republican purity test is a good way to transition to this Kentucky race that everyone is watching really closely where President Trump is putting his political weight behind a challenger to Congressman Thomas Massie. Can you remind us why he is so invested in this race?
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Look, Massie has long been a GOP opposition voice and a bit of a thorn in the side of his own party. I remember back in 2020 when he forced a recorded vote on that $2 trillion Covid package, dragging all of his colleagues back to D.C. but it's really ramped up lately. He was one of only two GOP houses no votes on the one big, beautiful bill, Trump's big signature tax and spending package that really got him in Trump's crosshairs. He's also been a co sponsor on war powers resolutions to reign Trump back in on operations in both Venezuela and most notably, perhaps Iran. He's taken issue with Trump's executive powers again and again. And what's gotten him probably the most national headlines has been his efforts to force a vote on his Epstein Files Transparency act, which, of course, Trump signed, but certainly got him a lot of pushback within his own party. And Massie has told me that he thinks his constituents would agree with him if they read the bills, and that this election also really has implications for both the midterms. And the future of the GOP as a whole.
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It's a referendum on whether every Republican in the House and the Senate is going to be a rubber stamp for
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the executive branch or not.
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Well, that hasn't been something that has been very popular in Republican primaries though, right? I mean, Trump has been somebody who's been able to level really his control over the Republican Party. And being able to make the argument that you shouldn't have a rubber stamp isn't exactly what Republicans seem to be wanting right now.
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Sylvia, how is this manifesting in this race? I mean, tell us about this primary challenger that that's up against Massie.
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Ed Gallerine served in the Navy as a Navy SEAL officer and he's essentially a political newcomer. He ran and lost in a State Senate PRIM 2024. He was running in kind of a moderate in that race. But he talks about the president calling him to the White House and asking him to run directly. And Trump acknowledges that he was he was hunting for a challenger in this race. Here is when he visited Hebron, Kentucky in March to campaign for Gowering.
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Give me somebody with a warm body to beat Massey and I got somebody with a warm body but a big beautiful brain and a great patriot. He's unbelievable.
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So really, you see how invested Trump was in this primary. Gowrine not very well known in the state. He's really been running an expensive race to make himself known to voters here.
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I mean, how is the race playing out over the last couple months, Celia?
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I mean, it's really come down to this question of whether you want an unequivocal Trump warrior or a kind of independent libertarian leading candidate like Massie. Locally, we've seen a few figures that have been frustrated within the party that Gallerin hasn't agreed to any debates with the congressman. There have been some videos kind of circulating online that appear to be from closed forums where constituents ask why he hasn't. It's gotten a little bit heated. As a member of the press, I've asked Al Rhine too, and he's told me that he thinks he's debating Massie every day on his record. And there's a lot to attack Massie on based on his record. And Massey acknowledges that because he votes against every omnibus spending package. So if you pull anything out of those omnibuses, you can say that Massie voted against it. And Massie also has told me that he feels he's representing parts of the Republican tent that maybe haven't gotten the attention that libertarian minded, that maybe Maha make America Healthy again, Republicans would like in this second Trump administration.
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I feel like we heard a couple weeks ago when my colleague Tam Keith went to Indiana and reported on races there where President Trump was backing candidates about how much money was flowing into these races that normally does. Don't see this much money. And I feel like we're seeing a similar dynamic here. Right. I mean, what do we know about how much money is being spent and who's spending it?
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Well, according to Ad Impact, who we partner with for this election and the last election, there's been almost $33 million spent on TV ads. And you can throw out millions and billions, and it all sounds kind of the same, but this is the most spent on a House primary on record so far. And that's kind of amazing. It's really wild. And one of the places where we're seeing a lot of opposition to. To. To Massie, not just from Trump, because He has a Maga Kentucky PAC that's spending about $7 million, certainly a lot of money, but also groups that are very pro Israel who are lined up against Massie. The United Democracy project, or UDP, is aligned with AIPAC. They've spent about $5 million, and the most expensive ad in this entire race, about $2 million. And combine that with the Republic Coalition, the RJC Victory Fund, has spent about 4.3 million. So you're talking about 9 million, a little over $9 million that's spent from pro Israel groups have put up images of Massie with Ilhan Omar, congresswoman from Minnesota, Democrat, and AOC Alexandria Ocasio Cortez from New York, saying Massie votes with them.
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I mean, so, Sylvia, do you think we're walking into basically a repeat of what we just saw in Louisiana with Bill Cassidy, or is there something different? Are there different dynamics in this Massie race?
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You have to imagine that Massie is paying attention to what's happening in other states. But this Kentucky district is very different, and the candidates at play here are very different as well. Massie is definitely not a Bill Cassidy Republican. He, in many ways, has aligned himself very closely with Maga. He says he votes with his party 90% of the time, but he is unwilling to compromise on that other 10%. And I think he does have a very strong base. He, you know, until this election, he had pretty universal popularity in his district, very popular in his district, but, you know, he has to be looking at those results and wondering, is it enough to overcome the huge spending to overcome Trump's grip on the party?
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Yeah. And you Know, these ads that are running against Massie are calling him a traitor and a deserter. Massie tried to address some of this, talking about the quote, unquote, elephant in the room with, by the way, a lot of AI in these ads. You see an elephant, elephant walking around with a Make America great again hat on and Massie next to him and Massie saying he wants to address the elephant in the room. He said, I agree with President Trump a whole lot more than I disagree with him. He lists all the places where they agree, but then he never addresses the elephant in the room where he disagrees with him and why. He just says that they have more work to do together. So clearly he's trying to tie himself to Trump while also trying to acknowledge that, yeah, the president may not be thrilled with me, but if you're watching ads in Kentucky, you're seeing a lot of President Trump saying that Massie's a loser and somebody who has not been endorsed by Trump, obviously. Ed Gallerin has any insights.
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Sylvia, before we take a break on what you're hearing from voters on the ground there.
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Yeah, I'm hearing a lot of different things. So voters who maybe in the very recent past voted for both Massie and Trump. Now they might have to make a different decision. But I'm hearing from voters that, you know, maybe they feel that Massie has been a bit too much of an obstructionist. But also a lot of voters that were saying respect him for standing by the same principles he's always had. He, he's very consistent over his term. And so I, I think that there's a little bit of a dissonance here for a lot of voters. But again, we also hear from the, the hardcore Trump supporters, the hardcore maga that say that whatever Trump says goes.
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All right, let's take a quick break and more in just a moment. And we're back. So, Sylvia, on the Senate side of things, Longtime Senator Mitch McConnell is retiring, which is leaving that seat open in more than 40 years. Can you tell us about the Republican candidates who are running to replace him?
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Sure. So kind of leading the race right now is U.S. congressman Andy Barr, who flipped his Lexington seat red, you know, several years ago, and he got endorsed pretty late in the game by President Trump. He was in a sort of three way battle that was really a contest of who would support Trump the most if elected. One of his challengers, Nate Morris, a Lexington businessman, dropped out after Trump promised him an ambassadorship. But the one remaining top challenger here is Daniel Cameron. He's a former Kentucky Attorney General who lost to our Democratic Governor Andy Beshear in 2023. You know, kind of an interesting contour of this race as Cameron is now repositioning himself almost in a Thomas Massie like way to be a more liberty aligned, more willing to step away from the party. He's kind of said that Andy Barr is more part of the sw, but he didn't quite start the race that way. And so the limited polling that we have has showed Barr really pulling away post this Trump endorsement.
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There's certainly this libertarian streak in Kentucky. You know, they seem to have these kind of mavericky, you know, elected officials, you know, obviously home to Mitch McConnell too, who was somebody who spoke out against President Trump's conduct on January 6th before then, you know, sort of trying to get back in Trump's good graces. But the other senator here, Rand Paul, is backing Massie in this race, sort of defying Trump, believing very strongly in his own brand. And look, that makes a lot of sense because Rand Paul is somebody who came up with the Tea Party and really rode that wave to office and has been somebody who's had that kind of libertarian independent Tea Party streak.
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I mean, Sylvia, do you think there is something broader about Kentucky that attracts these sort of free thinking candidates?
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You know, it's so funny to me listening to that, because McConnell would not have fit into that category for the vast majority of his career, but he really has more recently stepped away from the party. You know, some might attribute his leaving office to that, but we see some true similarities, I would say, between Massie and Paul, this libertarian minded, and it's really based heavily in Northern Kentucky in Massey's district, to this willingness to vote for candidates that maybe aren't quite as politically powerful as someone like McConnell at the height of his career, but, but they stand on these principles that, that might maybe the more libertarian aligned Republicans share. And so I think that's a really interesting kind of idea that Kentucky is willing to, to have those candidates at the same time as they're looking at the McConnell types, the ones that maybe bring home a little bit more money. And I guess the question in really is, is that willingness for, you know, I think what you called a maverick is that does that extend past Trump's hold on the party, his grip on the party?
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That's what I'm wondering is kind of where does the Republican Party go from here? If, if, you know, the senator from Kentucky ends up being Andy Barr, if Massie, let's just say, ends up getting ousted? I Guess. Domenico, do you have any thoughts on what happens if these sort of thorn in the side people who have had a place start kind of losing their place?
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Well, first of all, there's not, not that much time left of the Trump era in the Republican Party. I mean, you know, he's. He can't run again in 2028. And I think this is a big national question about where the Republican Party goes. How MAGA does it go? How MAGA does it stay? There are going to be elements of what Trump has done that are going to continue to define the Republican Party. But remember, this was a party that was very pro free trade. Uh, it was a party that was very interventionist overseas. And, and we've seen that really be broken up by Trump. The one unifying glue has been culture. And I guess in Kentucky with a side of bourbon. I certainly like my bourbon too, And I know McConnell does, but McConnell was, quote, unquote, the establishment. The arc here for so long, Miles, was that Mitch McConnell had backed a lot of candidates who he felt could win. He always wanted more money in politics so that Republicans could try to win. He never minded that. He was never a finance reform type person. He always disagreed with John McCain, the original Maverick, the late senator from Arizona, who wanted campaign finance reform. But McConnell felt like there were about five or so candidates who he had backed who he felt could have won. But then the more right wing of the party and the more ascendant Tea Party wing that kind of led to Trump wound up hurting what would have been a wider Republican majority. But. But McConnell had to make a decision and how he was going to navigate these Trump waters. And he's done it in kind of choppy ways here and there.
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Okay, so then, thinking about the future of McConnell's seat, Sylvia, can you tell us about the Democrats who are running?
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Sure. We have some familiar faces. They might even be familiar to some people around the country. Leading in the polls in the limited polling we have available is Charles Booker. He's a former state representative, a progressive who lost to rand Paul in 2022. And we also have Amy McGrath. She was a former fighter pilot, a moderate. She lost to McConnell in 2020. That was another one of these exorbitant races that really did not pan out for Dems at the time. I think she lost by almost 20 points in that race, despite spending tens of millions of dollars against him. We have a few other candidates who may be a little bit more of a newcomer. Horse trainer Dale Romans. He's a. He's a True centrist. But I think Democrats, at least the way that they're messaging, that this is their chance to win, you know, especially against perhaps a Trump backed Republican candidate, when Trump is lagging in a lot of polling, you know, has a high disapproval rating, although I'm not 100% sure that it's quite as high here in Kentucky. But you know, they say if there's ever a chance to flip a Senate seat, it's when it's open and when the party in power is not have the highest approval ratings.
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That is true. Though at this point, the Cook Political Report rates the Kentucky Senate race, even though it's open, as solid Republicans. And I think in part that's because there have been these candidates like McGrath and Booker who've run previously and you know, a lot of money came in from out of state. They were exciting candidates for Democrats. They thought that they would have a chance at winning and then wound up losing. So I think that the history in the state certainly points to Republicans holding on quite firmly there.
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Right. And it's worth mentioning again that Kentucky does have a Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, who's quite popular. So do you think Democrats are looking at this race as a race they think they can win in November?
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I don't see yet a lot of national financial support behind this race. However, I think that the Democrats running in this race, they say that affordability issues, bread and butter issues, are the ones that can win them the day here. You know, they point to gas prices, you hear that a lot. They point to the Iran war and what they call, you know, putting money in the wrong places, focus in the wrong places, and that it really should be on inflation, on the issues that are affecting people in their day to day lives. So I think that's where Democrats see an in here. You know, you have progressives like Charles Booker who are really pushing for things like, you know, Medicare for all. He's pushing for really progressive issues, more federal worker protections, raising the minimum wage, things like that. Whereas you see McGrath saying, really we need to roll back all of things that Trump has done that we need to roll back tariffs, we need to get out of this, this war in Iran. But both of them really are focusing on essentially what is the same issue, which is affordability, which is people's pocketbooks. And so I think that's where Democrats see they can win or think they can win here.
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Well, I wonder whether Senate candidates, whoever comes out of this primary is also just going to be looking at Bashir and thinking, well, how Can I recreate what he just did?
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They're definitely thinking that. And they certainly mentioned Beshear quite a bit on the campaign trail. You know, it's so interesting when I talk to voters, some of them still say, I kind of wish Bashir had gotten in this race. But, you know, I think that a lot of Democratic operatives in the state see what beshear did in 2023 as kind of the, the upper threshold of how Democrats can do in this state that they can win back some of these rural voters, especially in Eastern Kentucky, that not that long ago were voting Democrat. You know, that really did look to the union's endorsement, things like that, for, for who they would vote for. And so I think that Democrats do see that as, as a potential path. And Bashir really has pushed that Democrats need to focus away from culture war topics and more towards the kind of issues that people talk about at the dinner table.
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And look, there's a big difference, though, between somebody being a governor and being able to win as a governor in a state that might, might align or seem different than that person's party affiliation, like Bashir being a Democrat being in Kentucky, a red leaning state, then somebody being able to win in the Senate because there's, number one, a different set of issues in how you govern a state and what people are looking for versus what they want out of Washington because people want to be able to vote for the person they put there that's going to make it so that the control of the Senate leans more toward the party that they want and be able to enact federal legislation. So, you know, you put somebody who's a Republican from a Democratic state, you know, that means in a very narrow Senate, that could mean majority control to the other party. And that's something that people nationally just don't want to do.
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Yeah, I mean, to that point, it has been since 1992 was the last time that Kentucky voted for a Democrat to go to the Senate. So I feel like it's just worth saying that, yes, they have a governor, but it seems like, like still kind of a long shot a little bit. All right, well, we can leave it there for today. Lots to watch tomorrow in Kentucky. Thank you so much for watching it for us, Sylvia.
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Glad to be here.
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I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.
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And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
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And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.