Trump Offers Farmers $12-Billion Bailout To Offset Pain From Trade War

Summary

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NPR Politics Podcast: Trump Offers Farmers $12-Billion Bailout To Offset Pain From Trade War

Date: December 9, 2025
Host: Sarah McCammon
Panelists: Danielle Kurtzleben (White House Correspondent), Mara Liasson (Senior National Political Correspondent)

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Episode Overview

This episode focuses on President Trump’s announcement of a $12-billion bailout for U.S. farmers, intended to alleviate the economic difficulties caused by his own administration’s tariffs and ongoing trade war with China. The panel examines the economic and political implications of the bailout, how it fits into Trump's broader economic policies, and whether these moves might affect his political support, especially in rural America.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Context for the Bailout & Broader Economic Trouble

• Voter Concerns: American voters are increasingly concerned about affordability and rising costs. The bailout targets farmers as a group acutely affected by Trump’s tariff policies, aiming to help them “stay afloat.”
  • Danielle Kurtzleben: “This bailout announcement isn’t exactly about affordability, but it is about helping a group of people who have been hurt by Trump's tariff policies to at least stay afloat.” (02:18)

2. How the $12-Billion Bailout Works

• Structure of Program:
  • $12 billion allocated by the Agriculture Department as direct payments.
  • $11 billion for “row crop” farmers (corn, wheat, soybeans, cotton); $1 billion for vegetable growers if needed.
  • Eligibility: Farms making up to $900,000 per year qualify; payments capped at $150,000 per farm; amounts are adjusted based on farm size.
  • Focused on small/family farms, not the largest agribusinesses.
  • Aim: Partially offset increased costs and decreased revenues due to tariffs.
  • Danielle Kurtzleben: “...That will exclude the very biggest farms, but will include all the small family farms that we hear about in politics all of the time.” (02:56)

3. Tariffs: Root Cause and Consequences

• Rising Costs: Tariffs have driven up the price of farm inputs (fertilizer, steel, aluminum) and machinery, increasing operating costs for farmers.
  • Danielle Kurtzleben: “Tariffs have hurt farmers and they've hurt them in two big ways. One is raising the costs of inputs...that farmers use, especially really expensive stuff like tractors and combines.” (03:57)
• Lost Markets: As a response to US tariffs, China (the main buyer of US soybeans) retaliated by halting soybean purchases, causing prices to plummet and hurting US farmers.
  • Danielle Kurtzleben: “China was by far the biggest buyer of U.S. soybeans. So that hurt American soybean farmers a lot in a really big way.” (04:35)

4. Economic Irony and Policy Contradictions

• Admission of Policy Failure: The bailout is seen as an indirect admission that Trump's tariffs, touted as economic boosters, are causing significant harm — contrary to his public narrative.
  • Mara Liasson: “This is a self-inflicted wound. This is Donald Trump's core economic policy...he's in effect admitting that tariffs raise prices...That's completely the opposite of what he usually says.” (05:53)
  • Danielle Kurtzleben: “This is shifting money around. Essentially, this is money from Americans' pockets, consumers' pockets, businesses' pockets going to farmers.” (06:38)

5. Short-Term Fixes vs. Long-Term Risks

• Soybean Example: Trump struck a deal with China to resume soybean purchases — but there’s skepticism over China’s compliance, as previous promises went unfulfilled.
  • Danielle Kurtzleben: “The US Soybean market is so reliant upon China. So the big question is if and when do they make those purchases.” (07:27)
• Geopolitical Consequences: If China shifts to sourcing soybeans from places like Brazil, the US could face long-term market losses.
  • Danielle Kurtzleben: “That could be a longer-term problem because if Brazil amps up its crop production, then China might just say, you know what, we're going to keep buying a whole bunch more Brazil soybeans from here on out.” (08:54)

6. Political Ramifications

• Impact among Rural Voters: Farmers, a core Trump constituency, may feel some relief, but the bailout is unlikely to fully solve the broader economic and electoral challenges.
  • Mara Liasson: “I think it'll help him around the edges...But I don't think it solves the bigger problem. Prices are going up and they're not just for the inputs for soybean farmers. They're what you see in the grocery aisle.” (10:06)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the contradictory nature of Trump’s tariff approach:

  • Mara Liasson: “Tariffs are the most beautiful word in the English language, he says. And now he's reversing or at least trying to mitigate the effects of tariffs.” (05:57)

• On the circular flow of tariff pain:

  • Danielle Kurtzleben: “The money is coming ... from American companies and American consumers. So this is shifting money around.” (06:38)

• On political strategy and insecurity:

  • Danielle Kurtzleben: “It feels to some degree like whack-a-mole...the administration… trying to run around and say, okay, we are going to put out all of these fires.” (12:50)

• On the Supreme Court possibly ruling against Trump’s tariffs:

  • Mara Liasson: “In a weird way, the Supreme Court, if it rules against Trump on tariffs, will be doing the Republican Party a huge benefit.” (16:50)

• On Trump's shifting rhetoric around affordability:

  • Mara Liasson: “One day he's saying that affordability is a Democratic hoax and prices are coming down. The next day he's taking these steps to reduce prices that are caused by his own tariffs. I think he's all over the place on this.” (18:40)

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Important Segments and Timestamps

• [01:48] Main topic introduction: Overview of bailout and its relation to tariffs
• [02:37] How the bailout works: Program details and eligibility
• [03:56] Tariffs’ impact on farmers: Higher input costs and lost export markets
• [05:53] Policy contradiction discussion: Tariffs causing the crisis they're meant to solve
• [07:27] Market losses for soybeans: China’s role and long-term concerns
• [10:06] Political effects: Will the bailout help Trump’s rural support?
• [12:22] Other ‘firefighting’ policies: Rollback of tariffs on some food items, 50-year mortgages, etc.
• [16:50] Supreme Court variable: Possible legal challenges to Trump's tariffs
• [18:03] Affordability rhetoric and political strategy: Trump and Democrats on costs

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Conclusion

The discussion highlights the complex interplay between Trump’s tariff-driven economic policy and his administration’s attempts to offset its political and economic fallout. While the $12-billion farm bailout is intended as an emergency measure for hurting farmers, it is widely viewed as evidence of the negative consequences of the tariffs themselves. The podcast concludes that while such bailouts may shore up some short-term political support among rural voters, they do not resolve the underlying economic anxieties — and may undermine Trump's consistent messaging on the benefits of tariffs. Both the political and policy questions remain far from settled, with the outcome hinging in part on legal, market, and voter reactions in the months ahead.

Transcript

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[Sarah McCammon]

Hey there, it's Sarah McCammon. Thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast. We want to hear from you, the supporters of this show, to see what we're doing well and how we could improve for next year. If you can, please take a short Anonymous [e-mail] Decembersurvey that's all one word. It takes less than 10 minutes. And especially if you're new to the show or you haven't taken one of these surveys before, you'd be doing all of us a huge favor by filling it out. We will be giving a $25 gift card to three randomly selected respondents as a token of our appreciation. So extra incentive to fill that out again. The link is npr.org decembersurvey you can also click on the link in our episode notes. Thanks so much. Now, on with the show.

[Ian]

Hey, this is Ian from outside the courthouse, where I just successfully had my first ever traffic citation dismissed.

[Mara Liasson]

Aw. Congratulations.

[Sarah McCammon]

This podcast was recorded at 12:11pm Eastern Time on Tuesday, December 9.

[Ian]

Things may have changed when you hear this podcast, but I'll probably still technically have a spotless driving record. Enjoy the show.

[Sarah McCammon]

Congratulations.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Stick it to the man. I am so proud of him. That's great.

[Mara Liasson]

It takes a lot of time. You got to go in there and contest it. I mean, yeah, most people don't bother.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

That's commitment.

[Sarah McCammon]

Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover politics.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

I'm Danielle Kurtzleben. I cover the White House.

[Mara Liasson]

And I'm Mara Liasson, senior national political correspondent.

[Sarah McCammon]

And today on the show, President Trump has announced a $12 billion bailout for farmers to offset the impact of his tariff policies. How does this bailout announcement fit into the bigger picture of Trump's economic policies?

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Well, to start with, you just have a lot of voters who really are feeling economic pain for a variety of reasons right now. This is something that polls, including our own polling at npr, keeps showing us that voters are talking about, especially the big a word, affordability, as a big problem. Now, this bailout announcement is isn't exactly about affordability, but it is about helping a group of people who have been hurt by Trump's tariff policies to at least stay afloat.

[Sarah McCammon]

Danielle, can we just talk about the nuts and bolts? I mean, how does this program work?

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

I mean, really broadly speaking. It's $12 billion that the AG Department has set aside as direct payments to farmers. So another farm support program, there are a few of them of that $12 billion, 11 billion. So the overwhelming majority of it is for row crop farmers. So that's farmers that grow grains like seed corn, wheat, soybeans, cotton. So not things like, you know, spinach, tomatoes, things you see in the produce aisle. One billion has been set aside for vegetable farmers should they need it. But that 11 billion for row crop farmers. What we know right now is that it's only for farms making up to just over 900,000 per year. That will exclude the very biggest farms, but will include all the small family farms that we hear about in politics all of the time. And it will be capped at just over $150,000 per farm. And the amount will be adjusted based on the size of the farm. So depending on the farmer, that may or may not cover their losses based on tariffs and rising input costs this year.

[Sarah McCammon]

So we said this is about tariffs. I mean, tell me more. What is the problem that the administration is trying to address and how have these affected farmers specifically, you know, if.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

You ask the administration, this is not about tariffs. If you ask the administration, this is about ongoing things that the Biden administration put in place. The Trump administration is continuing to say it's Biden's economy even 11 months after Trump took office. And they're saying that we're helping farmers for preexisting problems. But of course, this is about tariffs, really. Tariffs have hurt farmers and they've hurt them in two big ways. One is raising the costs of inputs. So things like fertilizer. Earlier this year we've heard farmers talk about imported fertilizer being more expensive because tariffs, also steel and aluminum, goes into a heck of a lot of stuff that farmers use, especially really expensive stuff like tractors and combines. That's something that row crop farmers use a lot of.

[Sarah McCammon]

And those things are hundreds of thousands of dollars. Yes.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

So you can imagine that a tariff would make it thousands of dollars more expensive potentially. We've heard John Deere talking this year about how it has raised a lot of their costs. So it raises the cost of doing business as a farmer. Now, besides that, you also have the trade war aspect. And this has been a particularly acute with soybeans. So Trump put a whole bunch of tariffs on Chinese goods. China retaliated by saying, you know what? We're going to stop buying U.S. soybeans. And China was by far the biggest buyer of U. S Soybeans So that hurt American soybean farmers a lot in a really big way. Now, I will add one other thing, which is farming is profoundly cyclical. So tariffs have hurt farmers, but that does come on top of several years of prices having declined and also higher input costs that had risen or at least been relatively high over that time. So farmers already had some shrinking margins, but tariffs have hurt them even more on top of that.

[Mara Liasson]

And what's so interesting about this is that this is a self inflicted wound. This is Donald Trump's core economic policy, something he's believed in for, you know, 50 years. The magic of tariffs. Tariffs is the most beautiful word in the English language, he says. And now he's reversing or at least trying to mitigate the effects of tariffs. He's in effect admitting that tariffs raise prices, whether they're for consumers in the grocery store or farmers out in the field. That's completely the opposite of what he usually says. Tariffs are going to usher in a golden age of American economy and tariffs are going to bring in trillions of dollars and make America rich. So, so he's in effect admitting that part of the affordability crisis, which is the number one issue this year, is because of his own policies.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

And there's one really important thing to add on top of that. If you think about how tariffs work, where is the money coming from? It is coming in large part from American companies and American consumers. So this is shifting money around. Essentially, this is money from Americans pockets, consumers, pockets, businesses, pockets going to farmers. That is where this money is coming from.

[Sarah McCammon]

You talk about prices, you talk about margins. I mean, there are a couple of things in play. There's the prices that the farmers pay for the things you were just talking about, Danielle, like fertilizer, like tractors, the input costs. Then there are the prices they receive for the things they sell, the commodities like soybeans and corn. We know that tariffs, they're saying tariffs have pushed up the cost of doing business. Have they affected the prices that they're receiving in the market for the goods that they sell?

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Yes, especially for soybeans. Because when you have China stopping buying American soybeans, then that is a big drop off in demand. So that did really hurt soybean prices. Now, Trump did strike a deal with China in October, and China said, okay, yes, we will start buying American soybeans again. The big question is, will they live up to that deal that they struck? The US Soybean market is so reliant upon China. So the big question is if and when do they make those purchases. It might be well into next year, because also China buys things seasonally. China buys its soybeans from the Southern hemisphere, places like Brazil and Argentina in the next few months because it's the growing season there.

[Mara Liasson]

Well, Danielle, I have a question about that. This is very deja vu all over again, because in the first term he had a trade war with China, and then he supposedly made a deal where they would buy soybeans, but they never really lived up to that. You know, as Trump might say, China has all the cards here. I mean, they're the biggest market for buying U.S. soybeans. They also have these rare earth minerals that the US really wants. They basically held those up. They had a lot of cards. They forced Trump to acknowledge that and make a deal with them so that they would allow rare earths to be exported to the US and other countries. So do you think China will do the same thing it did in the first term and basically slow walk this, or do you think they'll live up to this deal?

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

You are getting at something so important here is that this is not just about the short to medium term of what China buys in the next six months to a year. That's important. But there's a longer term thing at work here. And it also was something we thought about during Trump's first term, which is if China sours on buying US Crops like soybeans, then they can go somewhere else to get them, like Brazil. And, and that could be a longer term problem because if Brazil amps up its crop production, then China might just say, you know what? We're going to keep buying a whole bunch more Brazil soybeans from here on out. Brazil's market share could go up in the long term, which would hurt the US in the long term. So that is another thing to think about here.

[Mara Liasson]

China has a lot of leverage, in other words. Yeah, they have stuff we need, rare earths, and they also have the markets that we need for soybeans. And they're going to hold up both of them if necessary.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Absolutely.

[Sarah McCammon]

You know, Mara, these states, these districts really, that are agricultural districts and states, they tend to be places that Trump has a lot of support from a political standpoint. Is this bailout likely to help him?

[Mara Liasson]

Well, I think it'll help him around the edges. I think farmers will be grateful. Farmers are one of his core constituents and supporters. But everything in the midterm is going to be about margins. And, and the Democratic Party has belatedly woken up to the fact that they have a real problem in rural areas and red states. And they're pouring a lot of money now into trying to convince Trump voters that they are going to be better on affordability, they're going to be better at bringing prices down than he is. That might help them around the margins. So I do think it'll help him, but I don't think it solves the bigger problem. Prices are going up and they're not just for the inputs for soybean farmers. They're, as Danielle said, they're what you see in the grocery aisle. And presidents in general have very few ways to address that problem. And Trump has been all over the place on it. And that's the real problem he needs to address. Overall, prices are too high.

[Sarah McCammon]

Okay, we're going to take a quick break. We'll have more in just a moment.

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[Brittney Luce]

Hey. Hey, it's Brittney Luce from It's been a minute. Your voicemail box is full. Okay, I'll admit it. So is mine. So I'm leaving this for you here. I wanted to say thank you for supporting NPR this year. And if you haven't given yet, it's not too late. Give me a call back when you can visit donate.NPR.org this week on Up first, affordability is the latest buzzword in politics. So President Trump is hitting the road to tout his economic record. His message, the economy is thriving, but will Americans buy it? We'll bring you the latest this week on Up First Now, a Golden Globe nominee for best podcast listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Sarah McCammon]

And we're back. We've been talking about the new bailout program for farmers that President Trump announced yesterday. And I want to take a step back, Daniel. This bailout is one of several ways the administration has tried to offset some of the financial pain felt as a result of Trump's tariffs. I'm thinking about a recent rollback of tariffs on certain foreign grown food items, for example. What do you make of all of these different announcements the administration has been making?

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

You know, it feels to some degree like whack, a mole you have Americans, as we said earlier, talking about all sorts of economic pain. And when they say affordability, that means a lot of stuff has gotten more expensive. So, for example, with Trump's tariffs, just a couple weeks ago, the administration came out and said, you know what, we're going to roll back tariffs on certain foreign grown food items. They talked about coffee and bananas a lot, things we don't really grow much of in the US So they did that in an effort to lower prices on those things. Now, in addition to things like that, the administration has proposed various other economic fixes. For example, $2,000 checks, everybody, a 50 year mortgage. This doesn't quite relate to tariffs, but he's talked about making contributions to health savings accounts to help people with rising health insurance premium costs. So the administration, you get the sense that they are really trying to run around and say, okay, we are going to put out all of these fires. And as Mara said earlier, a president doesn't have a lot of levers to fix inflation. But the thing is, tariffs are self inflicted. So the administration is trying to, at the very least, try to mitigate the.

[Mara Liasson]

Effect of tariffs of their own policies.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Yes. Even while they don't take responsibility for it, the Trump administration also keeps trying to say tariffs really aren't causing problems and they will make things so much better down the road, we promise.

[Mara Liasson]

And here's the other problem that Trump has. This, this time as opposed to his first term. In his first term, the big economic package that he passed, the tax cut package, lowered rates for rich people and some middle class people. The tax cut package he passed this time, the one big beautiful bill, actually did some things that are hurting middle class people. It cut taxes for rich people, but it also made health care costs higher. It got rid of all sorts of benefits that middle class and working class people relied on. And so voters in their minds can draw a direct connection between Trump's policies and the pain that they're facing every time they sit down to try to balance their checkbooks. And it makes it a lot harder for President Trump. The other thing is that even though he does blame Biden for everything, and especially for high prices, his own Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, said that when asked, when will Trump own this economy? And he said in the fourth quarter, which started in October. So I think it's just hard. I mean, you know, in the past, Trump has been able to talk his way out of almost anything. But prices are very stubborn and people have a firm grip on reality. They know what they're paying and they feel insulted if a president tells them the economy is better than they feel it is.

[Sarah McCammon]

Danielle, you mentioned this whack, a mole, this sort of rush to put out different fires. I mean, is there any pattern to which fires the administration seems motivated to focus on? Like why the farm program, for example?

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Hmm, that's a great question. I mean, I think there's a couple things. One is, it's notable just how broad the kinds of programs he's proposing are, right? From money for Everybody to a 50 year mortgage to let's try to lower some grocery prices to the farm problems. I mean, I really do think, if I had to guess what's going on in their minds, it's that they are seeing just how upset voters are at the economy. And we have heard farmers for quite a while now talking about how the tariffs are hurting them. We heard cattle farmers being upset about assistance to Argentina. So I imagine the administration is just trying to respond to those people.

[Sarah McCammon]

On the one hand, Trump has made tariffs central to his agenda, and he says that they will yield positive results. But on the other hand, you see programs like this being rolled out. Do these rollbacks of certain tariffs and this new bailout undermine his message that this is working so well?

[Mara Liasson]

It certainly does. But there's one other factor here. In a weird way, the Supreme Court, if it rules against Trump on tariffs, will be doing the Republican Party a huge benefit if they can get some of these tariffs off the table before the midterms next year.

[Sarah McCammon]

Kind of a good cop, bad cop scenario.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Yeah, yeah. And the big question then is, should the Supreme Court rule some of Trump's tariffs? A lot of Trump's tariffs, I should say, unlawful. The administration has suggested that they would try to use other laws to replace those tariffs, to really stand firm and say, no, no, no, we're going to keep tariffs in place because they do so much good. What will be fascinating is to see if the Supreme Court rules against them. Does the administration follow through on that? Because we do know that Trump is stubborn and really, really has talked up tariffs so much. Are he and his administration willing to back down should that ruling happen?

[Sarah McCammon]

Well, Democrats and Republicans both have been talking about affordability quite a bit, particularly since the off year elections last month in which Democrats seem to do really well with that message. Are we seeing a shift in Trump's approach on this issue?

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

On the one hand, yes, we are seeing policies like these. On the other hand, he does get pretty dismissive of affordability. In different interviews, he sounds almost like he thinks, well, it's not a problem, but I'm going to do these policies anyway. What's notable to me is that especially since November 5, we've seen him talk about affordability quite a bit. Why? Well, because in November, on Election Day, in those off year elections, Democrats won by talking about how a lot of things are pretty expensive, just like he.

[Mara Liasson]

Won in 2024 by saying a lot of things were pretty expensive.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Yeah, exactly.

[Mara Liasson]

You know, in terms of the shift in Trump's approach, I think it depend depends on the day. I mean, one day he's saying that affordability is a Democratic hoax and prices are coming down. The next day he's taking these steps to reduce prices that are caused by his own tariffs. I think he's all over the place on this.

[Sarah McCammon]

And I guess we'll just have to see how these tariffs continue to play out if any of these promised economic benefits show up and whether or not policies like this bailout for farmers satisfy his base. Yeah.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

And if the tariffs even stay in place, we're going to see on that, too.

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[Sarah McCammon]

We're going to leave it there for today. I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover politics.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

I'm Danielle Kurtzleben. I cover the White House.

[Mara Liasson]

And I'm Mara Liasson, senior national political correspondent.

[Sarah McCammon]

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

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