Trump's Next Foreign Policy Challenge: Syria

Summary

Summary of "Trump's Next Foreign Policy Challenge: Syria"

Podcast: The NPR Politics Podcast
Host/Authors: Susan Davis & Greg Myhre
Guest: Jane Araf
Release Date: February 27, 2025

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Introduction to Syria's Political Landscape

In this episode, Susan Davis and Greg Myhre delve into the evolving political situation in Syria following the rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December. They welcome Jane Araf, reporting from Damascus, to provide an on-the-ground perspective.

“There was a civil war in Syria for about 14 years under the government of Bashar al Assad. And then suddenly it all just seemed to collapse very quickly back in December.”
— Susan Davis [01:00]

Ascension of Ahmed Ashara

Jane Araf explains the emergence of Ahmed Ashara as Syria's interim president. Formerly an opposition and insurgency fighter with ties to Al Qaeda, Ashara has rapidly consolidated power by uniting diverse factions within Syria.

“Ashara, the interim president, is causing a little bit of concern in Washington and other places because he was once with Al Qaeda... he’s really got a tough task ahead of him.”
— Jane Araf [01:23]

Syria's Ethnic and Religious Diversity

The discussion highlights Syria's intricate ethnic and religious mosaic, which poses significant challenges for national unity. Balancing the interests of Kurds, Alawites, Christians, and other groups is crucial for stability.

“Syria is probably the most diverse. I mean, we've got a civilization here that goes back thousands of years and it's multi ethnic, it's multi religious.”
— Jane Araf [02:36]

On-the-Ground Reality in Damascus

Greg Myhre shares his observations from Damascus, noting a surprising sense of normalcy despite years of conflict. Infrastructure remains strained, and economic hardships persist, exacerbated by stringent US sanctions.

“I was surprised at the attitude and how normal many of the Syrians seem to be.”
— Greg Myhre [03:43]

Stacey adds that initial euphoria has given way to a sobering reality of prolonged rebuilding efforts hindered by economic sanctions.

“There are US sanctions in place that are really preventing the government from moving forward and doing things like even paying salaries for policemen.”
— Stacey [05:46]

Impact on Syrian Refugees

The podcast touches on the plight of millions of Syrian refugees displaced over the past 14 years. While many reside in neighboring countries or the US, return remains fraught with obstacles such as destroyed homes and lack of opportunities.

“There's no place to live, there's no jobs, there's no electricity or water. So they really can't go home and start rebuilding their lives as much as they want to.”
— Greg Myhre [05:59]

A poignant story is shared about Abdul Wahab Omera, a young Syrian innovator whose life was upended by war, highlighting the human cost of the conflict and the resilience of the Syrian people.

“He developed a better way to dispose of nuclear waste. He got a patent in Syria at age 14... He's a budding entrepreneur.”
— Greg Myhre [06:37]

US Sanctions and Diplomatic Struggles

The discussion emphasizes the crippling effect of US sanctions on Syria's economy and international relations. Efforts by Ashara to engage with the US face significant barriers, including the longstanding closure of the US embassy in Syria.

“The US has such a key role in the international banking system... it really something that has to be untangled and has to be untangled pretty quickly.”
— Jane Araf [08:37]

Trump Administration's Stance on Syria

Greg Myhre critiques President Trump's inconsistent and dismissive approach to Syria, juxtaposing it with the administration's broader Middle East policies focused on Asia and China.

“Trump, like Presidents Biden and Obama, has wanted to pivot away from the Middle East, focus more on Asia, China in particular.”
— Greg Myhre [10:36]

Trump's reluctance to engage deeply in Syria is contrasted with his contradictory statements about taking control of Gaza and applying pressure on Iran.

“Trump... said, we're not involved in Syria. Syria is its own mess.”
— Greg Myhre [10:36]

Role of US Troops in Syria

Jane Araf clarifies that the remaining US troops in Syria are primarily focused on combating ISIS and preventing the group's resurgence, highlighting the strategic importance of their presence.

“They are mainly there to counter ISIS, the militant group from resurfacing.”
— Jane Araf [12:05]

Potential repercussions of a US withdrawal include increased influence from regional powers like Turkey and continued instability.

“Turkey has held talks in which it appears they have offered to build more bases here.”
— Jane Araf [12:05]

Russia's Diminished Influence

The episode addresses Russia's reduced role in Syria post-Assad's fall, noting the withdrawal of Russian troops and the loss of strategic bases, although Russia aims to maintain limited influence through key ports.

“Russia is hugely important. Their power here and their influence has been severely diminished.”
— Jane Araf [14:25]

Regional Implications and US Policy Recommendations

Susan Davis questions whether a more isolationist US approach might be beneficial in the Middle East, given historical context like the Iraq War and current sentiments.

“Is it possible that a less engaged US is actually a very welcome new reality in the Middle East?”
— Susan Davis [14:37]

Greg Myhre suggests that while decreased US involvement may be welcomed in some areas, Syria presents a unique case where Americans are still desired for rebuilding and normalizing relations.

“Syrians are very open to talking to the Americans, to doing things with the Americans.”
— Greg Myhre [15:42]

Conclusion: The Path Forward for US-Syria Relations

The podcast concludes with reflections on the necessity for the US to reassess its stance on Syria amidst significant regional changes. The potential for American investment and diplomatic engagement remains, contingent on lifting sanctions and reopening diplomatic channels.

“The US needs to reevaluate all these upheavals and figure out what's coming next.”
— Greg Myhre [10:36]

“This is not a country where people are openly upset, as they are in other Arab countries, about US backing for Israel in the Gaza war. And what that means is it is seemingly a much friendlier atmosphere for Americans and American investment.”
— Stacey [16:42]

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This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of Syria's fragile post-conflict state, the complexities of its diverse society, and the intricate dance of international diplomacy involving the US, Russia, and regional powers. It underscores the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for President Trump's foreign policy as the US navigates its role in a rapidly changing Middle East.

Transcript

[Stacey]

It's Oscar season and we watched the nominated movies so you don't have to. We are making some bold predictions for Hollywood's biggest night and we may help you win your Oscars pool. Listen to the Pop Culture Happy Hour podcast from npr. Hi, this is Stacey from Tucson, Arizona.

[Susan Davis]

I'm headed out to our chicken coop.

[Stacey]

To see if our hens laid any eggs after taking a few days off.

[Susan Davis]

This podcast was recorded at 1:05pm on Thursday, February 27.

[Stacey]

Things may have changed by the time you hear it, but here's hoping our hens didn't decide to stop laying eggs. Okay, here's the show.

[Susan Davis]

Handy thing to have these days with the price of eggs.

[Greg Myhre]

Absolutely. She's sitting on a gold mine.

[Stacey]

Hey there.

[Susan Davis]

It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics.

[Greg Myhre]

And I'm Greg Myhre. I cover national security.

[Susan Davis]

And NPR's Jane Araf joins us today for the very first time on the podcast and from across the globe in Damascus. Jane, welcome to the podcast.

[Stacey]

Thank you so much.

[Susan Davis]

And you're on in part because today on the show, we're gonna talk about what's happening in Syria, why it matters, and how it could test President Trump's America first foreign policy objectives. But Jane, I wanna start here. There was a civil war in Syria for about 14 years under the government of Bashar al Assad. And then suddenly it all just seemed to collapse very quickly back in December. Who's running the country now?

[Stacey]

Well, the guy that had a big part in that collapse is trying to run the country. His name is Ahmed Ashara. It's his real name rather than his nom de guerre, the name he used when he was an opposition fighter and an insurgency fighter in Iraq for years. And what he's tried to do is pull together a coalition of different kinds of groups. As you mentioned, it fell very Suddenly. It was 11 days that it took this coalition of opposition fight sweep in and pretty much persuade regime forces to melt away. And that toppled a regime that had been in place for decades. So all of a sudden now you have these guys who have never run a country. Ashara, the interim president is causing a little bit of concern in Washington and other places because he was once with Al Qaeda, the militant group. So he's really got a tough task ahead of him. It's kind of a work in progress.

[Susan Davis]

Can you give some sense of scope to the diversity, diversity of Syria, too, especially for American listeners, where we are still governed largely by a two party system? It seems like it's Much more complex than a country like Syria.

[Stacey]

Yeah, I mean, the Middle east in particular is pretty complicated, but Syria is probably the most diverse. I mean, we've got a civilization here that goes back thousands of years and it's multi ethnic, it's multi religious. And that is one of the challenges. It is making sure that Kurds, for instance, don't feel so threatened that they continue a conflict that has been running for years with Turkish backed troops. The government here has tried to reach out to the Alawites, who are the, the religious sect that had formed the basis of support for the former regime. There are tons of other groups, Christians, Muslims, all kinds. And the challenge there is essentially knitting together a country that for years had been under repression and which papered over a lot of the differences we should note.

[Susan Davis]

Greg, you were also just in Syria for several weeks doing reporting and I'd love to hear just from both of you, what's it like in the streets there? What is it like as you walk around Damascus? What does it look like? What does it feel like?

[Greg Myhre]

You know, to me, it was shockingly normal for a country that had been through such a devastating war. Now, Damascus, the capital, was hit much less hard than other parts of the country where entire neighborhoods, cities have been destroyed. So Damascus is still standing. But I didn't see people that looked shell shocked or are calling for revenge. In fact, the security presence was surprisingly light. The response I got over and over again is we've just been through 14 years of war. We're exhausted. We just want to rebuild our lives, our normal lives. But it's hard to do in a place where you don't have electricity. It's tough to get an Internet connection, very few jobs. So it's a struggle to return some sort of normal life. But I was, I was surprised at the attitude and how normal many of the Syrians seem to be.

[Stacey]

Yeah, I still can't believe I'm here, I've got to be honest. You know, when the regime fell in December and we were in here the day after, I had thought at that point I would never see Damascus in my life again because it was closed off. I mean, particularly to journalists. And to be able to come here and see the euphoria and the lack of fear in so many places was absolute extraordinary. And you still see that euphoria, you still see the lack of fear, which is huge. But what you're seeing now is a realization that this is going to take a long time. I mean, you go through the streets and as Greg mentioned, there's poverty anywhere. Everywhere there are little kids who are working. I mean, there are some posh parts of Damascus with fancy restaurants. But most of this country is desperately poor. The infrastructure has been destroyed. It needs everything. And the thing that's standing in the way of getting anything really is that there are these US sanctions in place that are really preventing the government from moving forward and doing things like even paying salaries for policemen.

[Susan Davis]

There are also, Greg, millions of Syrians who are forced to flee this country over the past 14 years. They live all over the globe. Obviously many in the Middle east, some here in the US A lot of them want to go home. And you talked to some of those people on your trip recently?

[Greg Myhre]

Yeah. I mean, the biggest refugee populations are in the neighboring countries, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan. And they do want to go home, but in many cases their homes are destroyed. There's no place to live, there's no jobs, there's no electricity or water. So they really can't go home and start rebuilding their lives as much as they want to. But there was one scene that really struck me. It was actually a tech conference which took place at the hotel where I was staying in Damascus. 700 people turned up, mostly young Syrians and also some Syrians. Syrian Americans who came from as far away as Silicon Valley. And there was one man in particular I want to mention. His name was Abdul Wahab Omera. Now, he was a teenager in Damascus when the war began. He was a really bright kid. He developed a better way to dispose of nuclear waste. He got a patent in Syria at age 14. Youngest person ever in Syria to get one. But then the security services arrested him because he had a nuclear document in his possession. He was in prison for two months. He saw horrible torture and killings. When he got out, his well off family decided it's time to flee Syria. They went first to Turkey. They eventually made it to Chicago. He had to learn English. He kept taking the SAT and ACT tests until he got a perfect score and he got admitted to Stanford. He graduated last year with a computer science degree. He's working on a master's in artificial intelligence. He's a budding entrepreneur. He has this app to help Syrian farmers. So he's hoping he can help by coming and going, helping from Silicon Valley. Others want to go home, but there are just so many obstacles along the way.

[Susan Davis]

And the biggest one, it sounds like it's just money. There's sanctions in which if they want to raise money and invest in the country, they're handcuffed.

[Greg Myhre]

Absolutely. I mean, this was Just a recurring theme that we kept hearing is when is President Trump going to lift the sanctions? We want normal relations with the United States. We were never able to have that under the Assad regime. So the Syrians are very open to talking to the Americans, to doing things with the Americans. But there's this big obstacle. The embassy's been closed since, I believe, 2012, a year after the war began. American diplomats can't legally talk to the Syrian government, which is still regarded as a terrorist organization, the group running the government. So there are all of these roadblocks preventing any kind of normal engagement.

[Susan Davis]

Jane, do you have any sense of what Ashara is doing to try to reach out to other countries, particularly the US to maybe try to ask, ask for that help?

[Stacey]

Absolutely. He did actually meet with a senior US Official, Barbara Leaf, who came here. And the one thing that the US did do was take him personally off their terrorism list. There had been a 10 million dollar bounty on his head from his insurgency days when he was imprisoned by the US for several years in Iraq. So they removed that. But the thing that he is really pressing to be removed is just an incredibly sweeping list of sanctions that affects everything from energy to banking to importing goods. And without that, because the US has such a key role in the international banking system, even countries in the European Union, for instance, which have temporarily lifted sanctions, are afraid to go forward with some of those measures because they might fall afoul of US Sanctions. So it's really something that has to be untangled and has to be untangled pretty quickly because while people are pretty patient here, and as Greg mentioned, there's just this incredible relief that there's no more war and they will put up with a lot for normal lives. That patience won't last forever.

[Susan Davis]

All right, let's take a quick break and when we get back, we'll talk about the view from the U.S. hey, it's. Hey, Martinez. I work on a news show and yeah, the news can feel like a lot on any given day, but you just can't ignore la noticias when important world changing events are happening. So that is where the UPVERSE podcast comes in. Every single morning, in under 15 minutes, we take the news and boil it down to three essential stories so you can keep up without feeling stressed out. Listen to the UPVERSE podcast from npr. And we're back. And Greg, I think it's fair to say that Syria has largely fallen off the radar here in Washington, especially as Ukraine and Israel have taken more of a front and center focus for The Trump administration. What, if anything, has Trump said about his approach to Syria?

[Greg Myhre]

Well, very little, Sue. He was asked a couple weeks ago, and he was sort of very dismissive of Syria. I'll quote him here. He said, we're not involved in Syria. Syria is its own mess. They've got enough messes over there. They don't need us involved. So Trump, like Presidents Biden and Obama, has wanted to pivot away from the Middle east, focus more on Asia, China in particular. But Mideast turmoil keeps dragging US Presidents back in. And Trump has also made some contradictory statements. He has said the US Wants to take control of Gaza and get involved there. He plans to apply maximum pressure on Iran. It's just, I think, sue, very important to understand how dramatic these changes are in the Middle East. In the past few months, in particular, Iran and its allies have all suffered major setbacks. You know, Israel has hammered Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran's own defenses have been substantially weakened. And in Syria, we've seen the Assad regime fall after a half century. So it really seems that, at minimum, the US Needs to reevaluate all these upheavals and figure out what's coming next. Doesn't necessarily point to any particular policy or mean the US has to get deeply involved in Syria or the other places, but do need a sort of realistic, informed position about what has just happened.

[Susan Davis]

Jane, the U.S. is engaged in the region. There are 2,000 troops there. What role are they playing?

[Stacey]

Well, they are mainly there to counter isis, the militant group from resurfacing. And ISIS teamed up with mostly Syrian Kurdish fighting forces to territorially defeat isis, and they've been there ever since. And there being northeastern Syria and a small part of Syria that borders Jordan, it's a hugely important role. And one of the big fears is of what would happen if the US did withdraw troops, because the US Isn't here fighting ISIS just out of the goodness of their hearts. They want to make sure that ISIS does not export attacks overseas to the US for instance. So if US Forces are not here, someone is going to come in and fill the gap. And that someone could quite likely be Turkey, for instance, Syria has been hit by Israeli air attacks and more Israeli incursions into Syrian soil. And while Ahmed Ashara, who is the interim president, has said that they do not want to pick any fights with Israel, Israel is not their enemy. At a certain point, he will have to rely on someone for protection. And that someone seems to be Turkey. Turkey has held talks in which it appears they have offered to build more bases here. And I think the thing we have to remember is this isn't just some obscure country in the Middle East. This is a country that is really pivotal to regional dynamics and even international dynamics. And it's a country that a lot of other countries will get involved in.

[Susan Davis]

Jane, I am curious about Russia in particular, because for a long time it did seem like Vladimir Putin had an intense interest in Syria. But you didn't mention that.

[Stacey]

I didn't, and I should have mentioned Russia, because Russia is hugely important. Russia was a key ally of the Syrian regime. It worked with Iran and Russia to essentially keep down opposition forces for years. So to do that, Russia had built a series of bases here. When the Syrian regime fell, that meant that Russian troops withdrew for the most part as well. But Russia really wants to keep a couple of bases here, particularly a deep water port off of the Syrian coasts. So they're not going to go away either. But their. Their power here and their influence has been severely diminished.

[Susan Davis]

I'd like to ask you, because one of the things I'm thinking about here is that I think it's fair to say that the 2003 Iraq war casts a very long shadow in the Middle east and how the US Is viewed there, and in many ways in a negative way. And then if I put that together with Donald Trump saying, look, I want to take a more isolationist approach and, like, let the region figure it out, is it possible that a less engaged US is actually a very welcome new reality in the Middle East?

[Greg Myhre]

I think that's absolutely true in any number of places. You know, just for example, the Trump administration is strongly backing Israel. Israel are calling for the US to take control in Gaza, turn it into a real estate project. Palestinians hear this, and they would certainly like to see less US Involvement, not more. And you could point to other places along those lines, but I think Syria is a bit of a separate and different case where the US Had a very limited presence. And what I heard from Syrians over and over is that they would like the US Government to reopen the embassy. They'd like US Companies to come and help rebuild. They would like normal relations for America for the first time in basically forever. So I think there's something slightly unique about what lies in Syria right now compared to some of the other places in the region.

[Stacey]

Yeah, the US Is always going to be the elephant in the room. So even if it's not saying anything, it's still taking up an awful lot of space. It's like US Officials like President Trump saying, we're not involved in Syria while there are 2000 troops in Syria. So clearly the US is involved. If what he's saying is we're not going to be involved in the future, although that's not clear, that's not really feasible either. But to Greg's point about what Syrians want, Syrians, like many in the Middle east, are essentially really focused on having normal lives, you know, having enough money to be able to put food on the table and send their kids to school. And they're tired of war. And unlike a lot of the other countries right now that are almost completely overshadowed by the war in Gaza, that doesn't resonate so much here, despite the large Palestinian presence and the history of Palestinian factions here, this is not a country where people are openly upset, as they are in other Arab countries, about US Backing for Israel in the Gaza war. And what that means is it is seemingly a much friendlier atmosphere for Americans and American investment.

[Susan Davis]

Jane, this was such a pleasure. Thank you so much for joining us today.

[Stacey]

Thank you.

[Susan Davis]

And that is it for us today. But we're going to be back in your feeds tomorrow with the weekly roundup. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics.

[Greg Myhre]

I'm Greg Myhre. I cover national security.

[Susan Davis]

And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics podcast. Three, two. Are you rolling? Good. Okay.

[Stacey]

Okay.