Trump's Proposed Immigration Changes

Summary

Podcast Summary: The NPR Politics Podcast – "Trump's Proposed Immigration Changes"

Introduction

In the December 4, 2024 episode of The NPR Politics Podcast, hosts Ashley Lopez and Domenico Montanaro delve into the anticipated shifts in U.S. immigration policy under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration. Joined by NPR’s Jasmine Gars, an immigration correspondent, the discussion navigates through Trump’s campaign promises, the potential impact on mixed-status families, legislative challenges, and the varied responses from states and cities across the nation.

Trump’s Immigration Campaign Promises

The episode opens with Ashley Lopez prompting Jasmine Gars to outline the cornerstone of Donald Trump’s campaign: immigration reform. Jasmine emphasizes that immigration was a central theme, stating:

“It was like the centerpiece of his campaign. And a couple of things that he's promised is namely mass deportations. He's said he's going to enact the biggest deportation in U.S. history. And then, of course, securing the border, closing down the border...” (01:37)

Trump's focus is on stringent border security and significant deportation initiatives, aiming to overhaul the current immigration landscape.

Reactions from Affected Communities

Jasmine Gars shares insights from her interactions with individuals directly impacted by potential policy changes. She highlights the anxiety among mixed-status families—where some members are undocumented while others hold citizenship:

“…people preparing for the worst case scenario. An estimated 11 million American citizens are part of a mixed status family. And so that's a lot of people.” (02:18)

Families are actively researching their rights and formulating contingency plans to safeguard their futures amid looming uncertainties.

Trump’s Mandate and Policy Direction

Domenico Montanaro discusses the nature of presidential mandates, particularly in relation to immigration:

“Mandates are always over read by presidents... Trump was more favored by the general electorate when it comes to how to handle immigration.” (03:30)

He notes that while Trump believes he has significant support, especially from his base, historical trends show that presidential claims of mandates often exceed actual voter intent.

Executive Actions vs. Legislative Reform

The conversation shifts to the challenges Congress faces in passing comprehensive immigration reform. Jasmine points out the reliance on executive actions in the absence of bipartisan legislative progress:

“Congress has been unable to pass comprehensive immigration reform in a very long time. ... the executive action has kind of become the only way to budge on immigration.” (04:27)

Domenico adds context by recalling former President Obama’s 2013 immigration proposal, which, despite garnering substantial Senate support (68 votes), was ultimately stymied by a Republican-controlled House. This historical reference underscores the persistent legislative gridlock surrounding immigration.

Responses from States and Cities

Ashley Lopez inquires about local responses to potential federal immigration policies. Jasmine explains that responses are expected to be heterogeneous, reflecting political divides:

“Republican cities and states... fully in support. And then we're already seeing blue states and cities pushing back.” (08:42)

States like Florida and Texas are anticipated to align closely with Trump’s policies, whereas Democratic-majority cities such as Denver are preparing to resist mass deportation initiatives.

Lessons from Previous Administration’s Immigration Policies

The podcast revisits the optics of the Trump administration’s family separation policy, exploring whether the incoming administration might adjust its approach based on previous criticisms. Jasmine observes:

“Republican Party has kind of taken a cue from what happened in the last Trump administration... terrible optics of children being separated from their family.” (10:06)

Domenico further elaborates on the delicate balance Trump’s administration must maintain to avoid repeat negative publicity:

“...if you don't see a lot of that, then it's gonna be something that Trump is gonna say that he did a good job on.” (11:16)

Public Opinion and Potential Challenges

Domenico highlights the complexity of public opinion on immigration, citing conflicting survey results:

“50% said that all immigrants in the US illegally should be deported. But... 57% said that America's openness to people from all over the world is essential to who we are as a nation.” (11:16)

This divergence suggests that while there is substantial support for strict immigration measures, there is also a strong undercurrent valuing the nation’s openness, presenting a potential battleground for policy implementation.

Conclusion

The episode concludes with reflections on the multifaceted nature of immigration policy under the incoming Trump administration. Jasmine Gars emphasizes the pragmatic challenges of implementing mass deportations, including economic disruptions and logistical hurdles. The hosts acknowledge the unpredictable terrain ahead, marked by stark policy proposals, resistant local governments, and a divided public.

Notable Quotes

• Jasmine Gars on campaign focus: “…the centerpiece of his campaign...” (01:37)
• Reactions from mixed-status families: “…people preparing for the worst case scenario...” (02:18)
• Domenico on presidential mandates: “Mandates are always over read by presidents...” (03:30)
• Jasmine on reliance on executive actions: “…the executive action has kind of become the only way to budge on immigration.” (04:27)
• Public opinion insights: “50% said that all immigrants in the US illegally should be deported. But... 57% said that America's openness to people from all over the world is essential to who we are as a nation.” (11:16)

Final Thoughts

The NPR Politics Podcast offers a comprehensive examination of the anticipated immigration policy shifts under Donald Trump’s presidency. Through expert analysis and on-the-ground reporting, the episode provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of the potential implications, challenges, and societal responses to one of the most contentious issues in American politics.

Transcript

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[Morgan]

Hi, this is Morgan from Lexington, Kentucky. I found out this week that after five years of general surgery residency, a year of research, a year of breast surgery fellowship, and countless hours of studying, I passed my general surgery oral boards and I'm now board certified.

[Ashley Lopez]

This podcast was recorded at 1:35pm Eastern Time on Wednesday, December 4, 2024.

[Morgan]

Things may have changed by the time you listen, but I'll finally be picking out frames for all of my degrees and diplomas, including my board certification. Okay, here's the show.

[Ashley Lopez]

Wow. Congratulations. That's no small feat.

[Domenico Montanaro]

That's awesome. So much work.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover voting.

[Domenico Montanaro]

And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

[Ashley Lopez]

And today we also have NPR's Jasmine Gars, who's with us. She covers immigration for us. Hey, Jasmine.

[Jasmine Gars]

Hi.

[Ashley Lopez]

So today on the show, we're going to be talking about how immigration policy in the US May change when President elect Donald Trump takes office. Jasmine, I want you to remind us of some of the things Trump campaigned on. Obviously, immigration was a huge issue for his campaign. What do we know about what he had his sight set on when it comes to changing immigration policy?

[Jasmine Gars]

Yeah, I mean, I would say it was like the centerpiece of his campaign. And a couple of things that he's promised is namely mass deportations. He's said he's going to enact the biggest deportation in U.S. history. And then, of course, securing the border, closing down the border, which I'm at the border right now. And Trump is inheriting a very quiet border, actually. But that's like the promise that he's going to really make it more secure.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah. And I know you've been talking to folks who are likely to be impacted by these actions. How are they reacting to all this? What are you hearing from them?

[Jasmine Gars]

I mean, the big thing I'm hearing is, you know, people reading up and studying on their rights. And I've also been spending a lot of time with mixed status families, meaning, you know, mom is undocumented or husband is undocumented, wife is undocumented, and kids are a citizen. And what I'm hearing a lot of is people preparing for the worst case scenario. An estimated 11 million American citizens are part of a mixed status family. And so that's a lot of people. And what I've been hearing is these plan B preparations, you know, what the kids should do if the parents don't make it back home, you know, what to do with the savings. A lot of contingency plans that I'm hearing about.

[Ashley Lopez]

And Domenico, I wonder what this says about how much of a mandate Donald Trump has when it comes to immigration. Voters have said consistently during, you know, running up to the election that this was a main issue for them and that they trusted Trump obviously more than his main opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. What do you make of, like, how much of a mandate he has coming into next year?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Well, I mean, I think that mandates are always over read by presidents, especially presidents who don't get 50% of the vote. And even when they do, I mean, in the modern era, you don't really get a very large percentage, certainly Nothing in the 60s like we may have seen decades earlier. And even then, scholars have said that they feel like those mandates are overread. But that doesn't stop presidents from using their victory to say that they have a mandate. And we've seen that from presidents in both parties. And certainly, certainly Trump was more favored by the general electorate when it comes to how to handle immigration. And, you know, he thinks that he has the wind at his back on this, especially with his base. It has been the animating issue since Trump came on the political scene.

[Ashley Lopez]

It's worth noting comprehensive immigration reform has long been on the wish list for Congress, but there's been little to no appetite to actually address it. But Trump also would not be the first president to take action from the White House.

[Jasmine Gars]

I mean, you know, Congress has been unable to pass comprehensive immigration reform in a very long time. And so the response to that has been executive actions. Right. I mean, whether it's former President Barack Obama with DACA or, you know, even this year, we saw a string of executive actions from President Joe Biden about virtually closing down the border to asylum seekers and executive actions attempting to offer certain protections to mixed status marriages. And so Congress is so unable to do any kind of bipartisan legislation or reform that the executive action has kind of become the only way to budge on immigration.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah, look, I mean, a comprehensive immigration overhaul is really the only way through what's kind of a very messy situation. I mean, the fact is there are far too few judges in this country who adjudicate whether or not somebody should be in the country or not, or if they have an asylum exemption and people are in the country for extended periods of time before they can get, you know, a hearing before a judge. The 2013 legislation that former President Obama pushed for would have added a significant number of immigration judges. It would have done a lot on border security, and it would have had a pathway for citizenship for the millions of people who are in the country illegally. And there were some pretty strict restrictions on how they would be able to achieve that. And it did appeal to the U.S. senate. It got 68 votes. Almost nothing gets 68 votes nowadays. But it was killed by the Republican controlled House. And ever since then, there really has been no movement to change that. President Obama, when he won reelection, the Republican National Committee put out a Growth and Opportunity Project point to say that in 2013 that without being in favor of comprehensive immigration reform, that the party would shrink to a base that was only people who were as part of a smaller and smaller share of the Republican base they nominate. Donald Trump went in a very different direction, and yet Trump won a record share of the Latino vote, 46%, in this election. So I don't think the lesson that Republicans are going to take from the 2024 election is that they need to be more backing or more in favor of a comprehensive overhaul.

[Ashley Lopez]

Okay. Well, let's take a quick break. More in a moment.

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[Jasmine Gars]

Hi, it's Marielle Segarra from Life. Kid. There's a first time for everything, including giving to npr. Whether you're a brand new listener or a longtime fan, please join the community of NPR Network supporters today. Make your [e-mail] and thank you.

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[Ashley Lopez]

Jasmine, another thing that is kind of an open question here is how cities are going to react to some of these immigration policies. Right. A number of cities, mostly run by Democrats, have already said that they wouldn't use local law enforcement to assist in federal immigration activities. How are you seeing cities as well as states sort of responding ahead of inauguration?

[Jasmine Gars]

Yeah, I think we're going to see a patchwork. I mean, we see Republican cities and states who, you know, have already for, for quite some time now been attempting to pass their own take on immigration enforcement, really jumping on the Trump administration bandwagon. Places like Florida, like Texas. Right. In the case of Florida, you know, Florida has some of the most stringent immigration policy in the country already. So those states are fully in support. And then we're already seeing blue states and cities pushing back. You know, we have mayor of Denver saying, you know, we're not going to allow these mass deportation programs here in Denver. And I think that's going to be one of the really big fights that we're going to be seeing almost as soon as Trump takes office is these blue cities and states pushing back against immigration enforcement.

[Ashley Lopez]

I do want to take a moment to talk about the optics of all this. In Trump's first term, he did get a lot of criticism for his administration's family separation policy, which split, split up migrant families as they entered the US without prior authorization. Jasmine, in your reporting, do you see the incoming administration's members maybe drawing lessons from all that and how they're messaging what they want to do starting next year?

[Jasmine Gars]

Yeah, 100%. I mean, one thing that has been really striking to me is to hear Tom Homan, the new border czar appointed by President elect Donald Trump, talk about immigration enforcement. A lot of what he has said has to do with child trafficking and human trafficking. And when I hear that, I definitely think that the Republican Party has kind of taken a cue from what happened in the last Trump administration, which were these terrible optics of children being separated from their family. I think there's a reality which is, you know, people who voted or who support mass deportation and what that's going to look like on the ground, especially with, you know, businesses and the economic impact. I think it's one thing to wish for that or envision that, and I think it's another to find that suddenly the food chain is disrupted or, you know, there are less employees available at a business. And I think that is another thing that could be a really challenging optic.

[Domenico Montanaro]

I really think that it's going to depend on how this plays out. I don't think that we have any real sense of the way people are going to react if they're watching images on television of children being ripped from their arms, of their parents and sent away, and then those stories are followed later. If you don't see a lot of that, then it's gonna be something that Trump is gonna say that he did a good job on. Of course, this is really where sort of, as the cliche goes, the rubber hits the road, because people have really contradictory views when it comes to immigration. I mean, views really aren't fully formed in public opinion on this. I mean, take for example, our NPR PBS News Marist poll from late September, early October, 50 said that all immigrants in the US illegally should be deported. But in the same poll, 57% said that America's openness to people from all over the world is essential to who we are as a nation. And then in the exit polls, in an election that Donald Trump won, 56% said that immigrants in the US illegally should be offered the chance to apply for legal status. Just 40% said that they should be deported. And I think that what that says is that when things are not that consistent, that it's possible to change people's minds, that there's room for this to go sideways or for people to be in favor of people being deported.

[Ashley Lopez]

Yeah, I think there are a lot of instances where the politics of this seem to be kind of all over the place. I mean, a good example, Jasmine is in New York City. The mayor there, Eric Adams, has expressed that he plans on working with the Trump administration. You know, when it comes to immigration, what are you hearing from folks in New York?

[Jasmine Gars]

I mean, yeah, I think that we are going to see some of that. I mean, New York kind of its whole identity is based on immigration and the myth of the immigrant who comes and pulls himself up from his bootstraps. And Adams has for a long time been kind of defying that stance. You know, it is also true that there was a very concerted campaign to overwhelm cities like New York City, like Chicago, with newly arrived migrants. And on the other hand, Adams has been more and more aligning himself with a Trump administration. You know, what I'm hearing is people just bracing, preparing themselves in the immigrant community and not assuming that New York is this safe space for immigrants, that it's always been just preparing to kind of put up a fight. And, you know, even anecdotally, just really interesting is whenever I've talked to Trump supporters in New York, in other parts of the country, and we really get down to the nitty gritty of mass deportations, at least in an intimate conversation, I usually hear, you know, at the end of the day, this would be something that would collapse our economy. It would severely disrupt the food chain. It's not feasible. So there is kind of this acknowledgement of a fantasy versus a reality in practice and what that will look like.

[Ashley Lopez]

Well, I think we'll leave it there for today. Jasmine, thank you so much for bringing your reporting to the podcast.

[Jasmine Gars]

Thank you. Thanks for having me.

[Ashley Lopez]

I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover voting.

[Domenico Montanaro]

I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and.

[Ashley Lopez]

Corporate and thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

[Domenico Montanaro]

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