Trump's Tariff Tug Of War

Summary

The NPR Politics Podcast: "Trump's Tariff Tug Of War" – Detailed Summary

Release Date: April 10, 2025

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1. Introduction to the Tariff Conflict

The episode opens with hosts Asma Khalid and Frank Ordonez delving into the ongoing saga of President Donald Trump's tariff policies. They discuss the recent developments where the administration has imposed and subsequently paused certain tariffs, creating a complex "tug of war" scenario in international trade relations.

2. Trump's Tariff Implementation and Immediate Aftermath

Timestamp: 01:10 – 03:23

Asma Khalid provides a rundown of President Trump's tariff strategy, highlighting the initial imposition of a universal 10% tariff on imported goods from all countries. This move was coupled with threats of even higher tariffs, causing immediate turmoil in the global markets. Frank Ordonez elaborates:

"He imposed these very large tariffs on dozens of countries only to end up reversing many of them on the day that they were to go into effect... But it is much different than what he was threatening those reciprocal tariffs such as 46% on Vietnam, 24% on Japan, that were really freaking out people and those countries."
— Frank Ordonez [02:13]

The backlash was swift, with international counterparts retaliating through their own tariffs on American goods. Notably, Trump escalated tariffs on China to 145%, a response to China's retaliatory measures.

3. Market Turmoil and Economic Uncertainty

Timestamp: 03:43 – 08:14

Emily, the guest finance correspondent, paints a vivid picture of the market's reaction:

"Since Trump announced the tariffs about more than a week ago, the markets have experienced a huge sell off... The Dow is down more than 1900 points or 4.7%. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are also down... There is just a lot of uncertainty and fear being shown in the markets right now."
— Emily [03:54]

The abrupt policy shifts have not only destabilized the stock markets but have also led to a decline in bond markets—the traditional safe haven for investors—indicating deep-seated anxiety about the economic trajectory.

4. Administration's Tactical Pause and Mixed Signals

Timestamp: 05:57 – 07:50

President Trump's decision to pause some tariffs for 90 days was initially seen as a strategic move to bring other nations to the negotiating table. However, this pause coincided with an escalation of tariffs on China, adding layers of complexity to the trade war.

Frank Ordonez discusses the administration's messaging:

"The Trump administration is giving now is that this was all planned from the start... Trump acknowledged that the concerns about the market turmoil played a factor."
— Frank Ordonez [06:05]

This reversal has led to mixed signals, confusing both domestic and international stakeholders about the administration's long-term trade strategy.

5. Scrutiny of Economic Advisors and Hidden Doubts

Timestamp: 10:23 – 12:35

The episode highlights the internal tensions within the administration, particularly among economic advisors with deep Wall Street ties. Frank Ordonez points out the pressure on Treasury Secretary Scott Besant and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick:

"They were picked in part because of their experience and the feeling that Wall street would trust that there were kind of, you know, reasonable voices, credible voices at the helm on this issue... their own reputations and their own credibility has come under a lot of scrutiny because of all these things."
— Frank Ordonez [11:22]

Despite their public support for the tariffs, there are signs of internal skepticism regarding the policy's efficacy and its adverse effects on the economy.

6. Wall Street's Growing Dissent and Influence

Timestamp: 13:45 – 17:39

The hosts discuss the shifting stance of Wall Street leaders, notably JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who has begun to vocalize concerns over the tariffs' potential to trigger a recession:

"I am going to defer to my economist at this point, but I think probably that's a likely outcome."
— Jamie Dimon (paraphrased) [15:25]

Additionally, influential investors like Stanley Drake Druckenmiller have publicly opposed tariffs exceeding 10%, signaling a potential coalition of financial powerhouses urging the administration to reassess its aggressive trade policies.

7. Long-Term Implications and Future Outlook

Timestamp: 16:26 – 19:00

As the 90-day pause approaches, uncertainty looms over the future of Trump's tariff strategy. The episode explores the possible paths forward, considering both domestic economic pressures and international diplomatic negotiations with countries like China.

Emily discusses the broader impact on corporate America:

"Home Depot's co-founder... said that the president was being poorly advised... they have long, long careers in Wall Street... very unhappy about the 46 tariffs on Vietnam... it's very difficult and perhaps prohibitively expensive."
— Emily [19:00]

The episode suggests that sustained economic pressure from Wall Street and major corporations might compel the administration to moderate its tariff approach to avert deeper economic fallout.

8. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The hosts wrap up by emphasizing the precarious balance the Trump administration must maintain between leveraging tariffs for economic and security gains and preventing a potential recession exacerbated by international trade tensions.

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Notable Quotes:

• Frank Ordonez [02:13]: "He imposed these very large tariffs on dozens of countries only to end up reversing many of them on the day that they were to go into effect."

• Emily [03:54]: "There is just a lot of uncertainty and fear being shown in the markets right now."

• Frank Ordonez [06:05]: "Trump was asked about this yesterday at the White House, and he acknowledged that the concerns about the market turmoil played a factor."

• Jamie Dimon (paraphrased) [15:25]: "I think probably that's a likely outcome."

• Emily [19:00]: "It's very difficult and perhaps prohibitively expensive."

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This episode of The NPR Politics Podcast provides a comprehensive analysis of the intricate dynamics surrounding President Trump's tariff policies, highlighting the immediate economic repercussions, internal administrative challenges, and the influential pushback from Wall Street. As the situation continues to evolve, the podcast underscores the critical implications for both the U.S. and global economies.

Transcript

[Emily]

99% of the US population lives within.

[Frank Ordonez]

Listening range of at least one public.

[Emily]

Media station and everyone can listen to NPR podcasts free of charge. That means you get completely unpaywalled access to stories, prize winning reporting, and shows.

[Asma Khalid]

That represent the voices in every corner of the country.

[Emily]

Hear the bigger picture every day on npr. Hi, this is Emily from Fort Myers, Florida. My boss and I are dressed up as George Washington, ready to take on the local Rotary Club's Cardboard Boat Regatta.

[Asma Khalid]

This podcast was recorded at 1:08pm Eastern Time on Thursday, April 10th of 2025.

[Emily]

Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but hopefully our Durham boat has not sunk to the bottom of the lake with us in it. Enjoy the show.

[Frank Ordonez]

I so want to go to a regatta.

[Asma Khalid]

I thought you said you wanted to dress up as George Washington.

[Emily]

I could see that for you.

[Asma Khalid]

Franco, too.

[Emily]

I could do that, too.

[Frank Ordonez]

I'm down with that.

[Asma Khalid]

Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House.

[Frank Ordonez]

I am Frank Ordonez. I cover the White House as well.

[Asma Khalid]

And today on the show, the tug of war over tariffs continues. And a quick flashback to last week. First, that's when President Trump's tariff policy went into effect on imported goods. That was a universal 10% tariff on all countries, plus the threat of even higher tariffs. Stock markets reeled from the news. Other countries retaliated with tariffs of their own on American made goods. And now it looks like some of the president's tariffs are on pause. So to help us make sense of all the twists and turns, we have called up a special guest, NPR's finance correspondent Maria Aspen. She's joining us from New York City.

[Emily]

Hey there. Hey there.

[Asma Khalid]

And this is your first time on the show. Right? So thank you so much.

[Emily]

Yes, very excited to be here.

[Frank Ordonez]

Welcome, welcome, welcome, welcome.

[Asma Khalid]

Well, Franco, I actually want to begin with you because I think it's important for us to contextualize what is actually happening with the tariff ecosystem. I mentioned the president paused some of the tariffs. He walked some of them back yesterday, at least for now, temporarily. Can you catch us up on what the current tariff formulation looks like?

[Frank Ordonez]

Yeah, I mean, it all is really kind of quite confusing. I mean, he did, he imposed these very large tariffs on dozens of countries only to end up reversing many of them on the day that they were to go into effect. Now, he still has the base baseline 10% tariff on most all imports. That's across the board. And that is a big deal. But it is much different than what he was threatening those reciprocal tariffs such as 46% on Vietnam, 24% on Japan, that were really freaking out people and those countries. And those are on hold for 90 days now. Top aides say they're in talks with those countries and working on what they have described as bespoke discussions, basically tailor made talks with each of these countries. But it's very unclear what those details are.

[Asma Khalid]

Yeah, that was big news, Franco. There was another big announcement though, that the President made yesterday. In pausing those tariffs, he further escalated the tariffs on China.

[Frank Ordonez]

Yeah, I mean, while he paused the tariffs on most of the countries, he actually escalated the tariffs on China to 145%.

[Asma Khalid]

That's a lot.

[Frank Ordonez]

That's a lot. Which he said is punishment for retaliating against the US Tariffs. He basically said, and all his aides said that they rewarded those who kind of held firm and did not retaliate against the US and in response to this, China raised their own retaliatory tariffs to 84%.

[Asma Khalid]

Maria, I want to bring you into the conversation here and ask you about how the markets have been responding to this all. It seems like they've been getting a little spooked by this Trump White House's tariff policy.

[Emily]

It's been wild. I mean, since Trump announced the tariffs about more than a week ago, the markets have experienced a huge sell off. Then yesterday when he announced this 90 day pause, they experienced this huge recovery. And then now as I'm watching the Dow Jones ticker, the Dow is down more than 1900 points or 4.7%. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are also down. And this is a global sell off. We've seen Asia and Europe, European markets also have these wild swings over the past week as everyone around the world is trying to digest how bad is the trade we're going to get, what does it mean for businesses? What kind of decisions can or can't we make about where do we maybe have to move our operations, can we invest any money, should we hire? Or is there going to be a recession? And so there is just a lot of uncertainty and fear being shown in the markets right now.

[Asma Khalid]

And to be clear, that uncertainty and fear seems to be continuing today, even with The Trump administration's 90 day pause.

[Emily]

Yeah, because I mean, there are still new 10% tariffs across the board, plus this escalation of tariffs on China. I think yesterday when Trump did announce this pause, at first there was this sense of relief that, oh, okay, things are not going to be as bad as we feared, and they're not. At least it doesn't seem that way. But investors and business owners and frankly, consumers are all realizing that, oh, this is still going to cause a lot of changes. And again, to sort of step back a bit, economists across the political spectrum say that tariffs are going to raise prices for consumers across the board. And we've seen a lot of investment banks as well as CEOs and investors in the past week or so come out and say the aggressive tariff policy that President Trump has laid out could lead to a recession as well as a lot of other disastrous economic consequences.

[Asma Khalid]

Franco, do we have clarity on why President Trump ultimately did shift his position and call for this 90 day pause?

[Frank Ordonez]

It was quite the reversal. Now, I mean, I will say the message that the Trump administration is giving now is that this was all planned from the start, that you had to do this in order to bring reluctant countries to the table to start negotiating. Trump was asked about this yesterday at the White House, and he acknowledged that the concerns about the market turmoil played a factor. Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippee, you know, they.

[Asma Khalid]

Were getting a little bit yippee, a little bit afraid.

[Frank Ordonez]

You know, he not only talked about the stock markets, but he also talked about the bond markets, which is a usually safe corner for investors. And it was just a really massive reversal because, you know, earlier he was really saying that he would not change, his aides would say, saying that he was not going to negotiate. Trump himself just a few days ago even wrote that his policies will never change. And yet they did.

[Emily]

The bond market is kind of a, if, you know, you know, indicator. Bonds are generally seen as a safe haven and they had been wild. And yesterday when he was asked, Trump did actually mention that he had been looking at the bond market. Here's what he said.

[Asma Khalid]

Bond market is very tricky.

[Frank Ordonez]

I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it's beautiful. The bond market right now is beautiful.

[Asma Khalid]

But, yeah, I saw last night where.

[Emily]

People were getting a little queasy, which seemed to be at least a tacit admission that, oh, yeah, people were getting a little queasy. His advisors, some of whom are these very high finance guys, had probably been among those getting queasy.

[Asma Khalid]

Can you just explain to us what the bond market is and why it's important?

[Emily]

So US Treasuries are basically the backstop of the market. They are US Government debt. The stock market can go up and down, but bonds are typically seen as safe and when bond prices along with dollar prices are going down, that is a sign for investors to get really worried.

[Asma Khalid]

All right. Lots more to talk about, but let's take a quick break first and we'll be back in a moment.

[Emily]

Support for NPR and the following message come from Betterment, the automated investing and savings app. CEO Sarah Levy shares how Betterment utilizes tech tools powered by human advice.

[Asma Khalid]

Betterment is here to help customers build wealth their way, and we provide powerful technology and complete human support where technology can deliver ease of use and affordability, and the people behind that technology can provide advice and guidance.

[Emily]

Learn [e-mail] investing involves risk performance not guaranteed. NPR informs and connects communities around the country, providing reliable information in times of crisis. Federal funding helps us fulfill our mission to create a more informed public and ensures that public radio remains available to everyone. Learn more about safeguarding the future of public media. Visit protectmypublicmedia.org Wait, wait, don't tell me.

[Frank Ordonez]

Fresh air up first, NPR News. Now, Planet Money TED Radio Hour throughline, the NPR Politics podcast Code Switch Embedded books we love Wild Card are just some of the podcasts you can enjoy. Sponsor free with NPR. Get all sorts of perks across more than 20 podcasts with the bundle option. Learn more at plus.NPR.org and we're back.

[Asma Khalid]

And you know, I think it's worth pointing out that Donald Trump has long believed in tariffs as a fundamental tool to help the American economy, to help American security. He's been talking about tariffs since the 1980s.

[Emily]

Decades.

[Asma Khalid]

Right. And even on the campaign trail, he famously referred to tariffs as the most beautiful word in the English dictionary. But I will say the use of sweeping blanket tariffs is an unconventional approach to the economy. And I am curious, Franco, because I know you've been doing some reporting on the president's economic advisors, who in this moment are the influential voices in President Trump's ear.

[Frank Ordonez]

Yeah, I mean, he's been talking about this for a long time, often says, you know, the US has been treated unfairly. He blames trade barriers against the US for so many things, you know, causing the trade deficits that the US has with other countries. And it's for the people who are in his ear. Someone who like, like is really with him on that is Peter Navarro, who's the trade advisor at the White House. And very much one of the people who gets into the nitty gritty of these things this week has been actually in a fight with Elon Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur about these tariffs. Elon Musk has been against them and really attacking Peter Navarro. There's also Kevin Hassett and Jameson Greer, trade advisor. But two cabinet members who have really come under scrutiny through all this have been the Treasury Secretary, Scott Besant, as well as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

[Asma Khalid]

And why have they come under scrutiny?

[Frank Ordonez]

Well, you know, Maria was talking earlier about some of the members in the administration who have been kind of queasy. And a lot of people point to Besant and Lutnick on these things because they come from Wall street. And I mean, they were picked for those jobs. I mean, they have long, long careers in Wall Street. Before coming to the Trump administration, Howard Lutnick led Cantor Scott Besant, the longtime hedge fund investor. So they were picked in part because of their experience and the feeling that Wall street would trust that there were kind of, you know, reasonable voices, credible voices at the helm on this issue. And it's also because of that their own reputations and their own credibility has come under a lot of scrutiny because of all these things that are happening, this turmoil and the rollercoaster that Maria's talking about.

[Asma Khalid]

Can I ask a follow up there? Because, you know, you mentioned both the Commerce Secretary and the Treasury Secretary have this Wall street experience, and yet they have been out there touting these tariffs, particularly Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary. They seem to be true believers of this policy, at least publicly in this moment. And yet wouldn't they have known the market consequences that we've seen?

[Frank Ordonez]

I mean, I think that's a very reasonable question. But they work for Donald Trump. And when you work for Donald Trump or most any president, you have to walk a very fine line between following the direction of your boss, in this case Donald Trump, and following perhaps their traditional path that you have followed for so many years. Howard Lutnick was actually a Democrat not too long ago. And yes, absolutely, Howard Lutnick became a cheerleader over the last few months and was really pushing, almost channeling Trump's rhetoric and language and pushing for these tariffs and saying that Trump would not back down, that these were gonna last days, if weeks. But I will say it was interesting. I was at the White House, I was in the room in the Oval Office. And I would sense a bit of relief from Howard Lutnick as well as Scott Bessen when this decision was made to pause the tariffs.

[Asma Khalid]

Interesting. Maria, I'm curious where you see this all headed. What happens with this 90 day pause? And do you see any of Wall street putting additional pressure on President Trump?

[Emily]

It's been really fascinating to watch because corporate America and Wall street generally was excited about President Trump coming back. They were excited about his promises of lower taxes and deregulation. And in January, right after Trump was inaugurated, you saw CEOs like Jamie Dimon, who runs JPMorgan Chase, the biggest bank in the country, kind of shrug off the impact of tariffs. You know, Dimon was speaking at the Davos conference, said if it's a little inflationary, but it's good for national security, so be it. I mean, get over took a while and it took like a major sell off in the markets that saw trillions of dollars evaporate. But this week they finally started changing their tune. I mean, Dimon has kind of escalated the pressure on Trump again very carefully. He's choosing his words with care. But first of all, to step back. He is an elder statesman on Wall street and has a lot of power in Washington. He is often talked about pretty much every time an administration changes, Republican or Democrat. Dimon is talked about as a potential treasury secretary. So he's got a big megaphone. And at the beginning of the week, he published his annual letter to shareholders. In that document, he criticized the tariffs. He said they would raise prices and hurt America's economic alliances. And then on Wednesday morning, he went on Fox Business and was asked whether or not the tariffs would cause a recession. And this is what he said.

[Frank Ordonez]

I am going to defer to my economist at this point, but I think probably that's a likely outcome.

[Emily]

So that was Dimon ramping up the pressure. But I have to say, while he has perhaps the biggest megaphone, there were a lot of Republican and pro Trump investors speaking out this week. One of them was Bill Ackman, the very outspoken and very online hedge fund advisor who endorsed Trump for the election. He doesn't have a super public profile, but the billionaire investor Stanley Drake Druckenmiller was actually Besant's boss back when they both worked for George Soros. And in a post on X on Sunday, Druckenmiller said he did not support tariffs above 10%.

[Asma Khalid]

So here we are in this climate now where tariffs for the most part are at 10%, obviously with the key big exception of tariffs on China. But it seems like there is still a lot of uncertainty. We don't know what's gonna happen in 90 days. Right? Franco and markets businesses, they don't like uncertainty. So where do you see this going in the long term?

[Frank Ordonez]

I mean, I'll tell you what I'm watching. I mean, we don't know what's gonna happen in 90 days. We don't know what's gonna happen in the next week though, either. I mean, I'm really watching what's gonna be happening with China. I mean, we have 145% tariffs going in on, you know, massive amount of goods that are imported into the United States. You know, it's very interesting listening to Trump and watching Trump talk about possible negotiations with China's Xi Jinping. At the one hand, he's like really speaking very aggressively against China, calling Beijing the worst abusers in the world. At the same time, he's complimenting Xi Jinping as a friend, as one of the smartest people, someone he respects, and saying that they will eventually reach a deal. But he also said he's waiting for Xi Jinping's call. And we've seen that China and Beijing can dish it out as much as take it.

[Asma Khalid]

Maria, what do you see as the long term impact and do you see any potential that Wall street executives, let's say donor friends of the president, might have any influence over him changing that super high tariff rate on China?

[Emily]

I think that's the hope. I do think that there is a lot of skepticism and wor. What I've heard from people on Wall street and in the financial community is it is just so impossible to make some of the really big and expensive decisions that you have to make if you're running a large business. I mean, on Monday, Home Depot's co founder Ken Langone gave a pretty scathing interview to the Financial Times where he said that the president was being poorly advised. And he is a billionaire Republican donor and he's very unhappy about the 46 tariffs on Vietnam because although he did not say this in 2019, after Trump instituted tariffs on China, Home Depot was one of many companies that moved a lot of sourcing operations to Vietnam. And that can be a big, expensive, multi year undertaking. Now Home Depot and other companies that sort of scrambled several years ago are looking at the future and saying, what do we do? Where do we go? Granted, the White House argument seems to be bring those operations back to the United States, but that seems very difficult and perhaps prohibitively expensive.

[Asma Khalid]

All right. Well, Maria, thank you so much for coming on the podcast with us.

[Emily]

It was my pleasure. Thank you.

[Asma Khalid]

That is a wrap for today's show. I'm Asma Khalid. I cover the White House.

[Frank Ordonez]

I'm Frank Ordonez. I also cover the White House.

[Asma Khalid]

And thank you all as always for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

[Emily]

When Malcolm Gladwell presented NPR's Throughline podcast with a Peabody Award. He praised it for its historical and moral clarity. On Throughline, we take you back in time to the origins of what's in the news, like presidential power, aging and evangelicalism. Time travel with us every week on the Throughline podcast from npr. Oh, hey there.

[Asma Khalid]

I'm Brittany Luce, and I don't know.

[Emily]

Maybe this is a little out of pocket to say, but I think you should listen to my podcast. It's called It's Been a Minute, and I love it. And I think you will, too. Over the past couple months, over 100,000 new listeners started tuning in. Find out why. Listen to the It's Been a Minute podcast from npr.

[Frank Ordonez]

Today, the latest season of the White Lotus served up a tropical buffet of sex, betrayal, violence, revenge, privilege, drugs, death. And this was new spirituality. But whose dead body was floating in the pond?

[Emily]

We've seen the finale, and we've got thoughts on thoughts.

[Frank Ordonez]

Listen to the Pop Culture Happy Hour podcast from NPR.