Trump's Transition Trouble

Summary

Summary of "Trump's Transition Trouble" Episode of The NPR Politics Podcast

Release Date: November 20, 2024

In the episode titled "Trump's Transition Trouble," hosted by Miles Parks, Tamara Keith, and Ron Elving, NPR delves deep into the complexities surrounding former President Donald Trump's transition process following the 2024 election. This detailed analysis sheds light on procedural oversights, controversial nominations, and the broader implications for the United States' political landscape.

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1. Introduction to the Transition Process

The episode opens with Tamara Keith outlining the foundational steps of a presidential transition. Beginning in the summer preceding an election, both incoming Democratic and Republican administrations establish transition teams to prepare for a potential handover of power. This preparation includes vetting cabinet members and strategizing for effective governance.

Tamara Keith [01:29]:
"So it begins in the summer when you don't know who will be president... vetting potential cabinet members, just making plans for the presidency."

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2. Shortcomings in Trump's Transition Team

Tamara Keith highlights significant deficiencies in Trump's second transition team compared to established norms. Central to these issues are the failure to sign crucial memoranda of understanding (MOUs) with key government bodies, which are essential for accessing resources, receiving briefings, and conducting background checks on nominees.

Tamara Keith [02:09]:
"There are three memoranda of understanding... The third is with the Department of Justice... those aren't happening right now because... it hasn't been signed."

The absence of these MOUs poses risks to the smooth transfer of power, potentially delaying the confirmation and integration of Trump's cabinet picks.

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3. Expert Insights on Transition Challenges

Ron Elving provides historical context, comparing Trump's transitions to past administrations. He notes that recent transitions have been particularly rocky, citing the contested 2020 election and the protracted 2000 election resolution by the Supreme Court.

Ron Elving [03:34]:
"We've had a lot of rocky transitions lately... it was up in the air who had won the presidential election... that made that transition very difficult."

Elving underscores that previous administrations operated with a "spirit of cooperation" which appears to be lacking in Trump's current approach.

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4. Lessons (or Lack Thereof) from Previous Transitions

The discussion turns to whether Trump has learned from his 2016 transition. Despite moving swiftly in announcing cabinet nominees, concerns remain that underlying procedural and ethical standards may be disregarded.

Tamara Keith [04:55]:
"When you get below the surface, it's not clear that they aren't going to make the same mistakes in different ways."

Chris Christie, Trump's initial transition chief in 2016, is quoted expressing skepticism about Trump's commitment to a structured transition.

Tamara Keith [06:23]:
"He said... we could leave the victory party early and get the whole transition done. I don't think he feels any differently today."

Ron Elving adds that while some aspects, such as cooperation at lower levels, persisted, key cabinet nominations were significantly delayed in the first term, indicating inefficiency.

Ron Elving [08:06]:
"The major ones... were all well after Thanksgiving... quite a few of them were in December."

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5. Controversial Cabinet Nominees

The podcast identifies four particularly contentious nominees:

1. Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense.
2. Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democrat congresswoman, for Director of National Intelligence.
3. Matt Gaetz, a Republican congressman, for Attorney General.
4. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for an unspecified high-level position.

These nominations are unprecedented in their controversial nature, lacking historical precedence in presidential transitions. The Senate faces the challenge of handling these confirmations amidst the absence of signed MOUs, which traditionally facilitate smoother vetting processes.

Ron Elving [10:11]:
"There are scores of them... the focus is primarily on this Fast and Furious release of four that Trump had to know were going to be somewhat controversial."

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6. Implications of Skipping Formal Agreements

Tamara Keith discusses the legal and ethical ramifications of not signing the necessary MOUs. While these agreements are mandated by law to ensure transparency and prevent conflicts of interest, their absence raises questions about the administration's commitment to ethical governance.

Tamara Keith [12:03]:
"They aren't purely norms, but there isn't really an enforcement mechanism... the Senate might insist upon."

The potential disregard for these agreements could undermine the integrity of the nomination process and erode public trust.

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7. Political Repercussions and Future Outlook

Ron Elving cautions that senators opposing Trump’s nominees might face significant political backlash, including primary challenges from pro-Trump Republicans. This dynamic creates a high-stakes environment where supporting or opposing nominees could have long-term political consequences.

Ron Elving [14:04]:
"If you buck Donald Trump... you can count on having a challenge in your next primary... a big sword of Damocles over all these senators."

Looking ahead, Tamara Keith emphasizes the importance of monitoring whether the transition team rectifies its current shortcomings by signing the necessary agreements and adhering to established procedures.

Tamara Keith [15:16]:
"I'm watching members of the Biden administration speak in increasingly urgent terms about their desire to have a smooth transfer of power... I don't know."

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8. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The episode concludes by underscoring the precarious state of Trump's transition process, highlighting the tensions between procedural norms and political maneuvering. The outcome of this transition could set significant precedents for future administrations and the broader democratic framework.

Miles Parks [15:09]:
"We are two months away from Inauguration Day, Tam. What are you watching for next?"

Tamara Keith [15:16]:
"I'm watching to see if ultimately the Trump team does sign the paperwork, does begin these processes, and that... maybe it will become the norm."

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Notable Quotes:

• Tamara Keith [01:29]:
  "Vet potential cabinet members, just making plans for the presidency."

• Ron Elving [03:34]:
  "We've had a lot of rocky transitions lately... that made that transition very difficult."

• Tamara Keith [06:23]:
  "He said... we could leave the victory party early and get the whole transition done. I don't think he feels any differently today."

• Ron Elving [10:11]:
  "The focus is primarily on this Fast and Furious release of four that Trump had to know were going to be somewhat controversial."

• Tamara Keith [15:16]:
  "I'm watching to see if ultimately the Trump team does sign the paperwork, does begin these processes, and that... maybe it will become the norm."

---

This episode of The NPR Politics Podcast offers a comprehensive examination of the challenges facing Donald Trump's transition, emphasizing the importance of adhering to established protocols to ensure a stable and ethical transfer of power. As Inauguration Day approaches, the developments discussed provide crucial insights into the potential trajectory of the incoming administration and its impact on American politics.

Transcript

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[Tamara Keith]

Is Emily and Arlo in St. Louis, Missouri. I've been listening to the NPR Politics Podcast every single day since sometime in 2019.

[Miles Parks]

This podcast was recorded at 1:05pm on Wednesday, November 20, 2024.

[Tamara Keith]

Things may have changed by the time you hear it, but I'll still be listening every single day, sometimes with my buddy Arlo. Thanks so much for all you do. NPR Politics Podcast Team. That is so sweet.

[Miles Parks]

That is so nice. We have been on quite a journey since 2019.

[Tamara Keith]

And the journey continues.

[Miles Parks]

Hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.

[Tamara Keith]

I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

[Ron Elving]

And I'm Ron Elving, editor, correspondent.

[Miles Parks]

And today on the show, the presidential transition. It is a bit more complicated than Joe Biden just tossing the keys over to Donald Trump. Tam, you have done a lot of reporting on this period, and I'm hoping we can just talk through it. So there's all this high profile stuff happening basically every day right now with nominees being named, but there's a lot going on behind the scenes as well. Can you tell us a little bit about what this process looks like?

[Tamara Keith]

So it begins begins in the summer when you don't know who will be president. But the White House, the incoming administration, begins making preparations for that handoff, and the nominees for the Democratic and Republican parties stand up transition teams and begin preparing to take power. And that includes, in theory, vetting potential cabinet members, just making plans for the presidency.

[Miles Parks]

But your reporting the last couple weeks has found that the Trump transition team for the second go around has not done what is considered right, a pretty critical thing when it comes to making this process kind of a smooth transition. Can you talk about that?

[Tamara Keith]

I don't want people's eyes to glaze over here, but this all comes down to a memorandum of understanding, or actually three of them. One is with the General Services Administration. That gives the transition access to office space, government email accounts. Then there is a memorandum of an understanding with the White House, and that's a really important one. It essentially would allow various government agencies to talk to the Trump transition. You know, they don't have the controls yet, but they're able to get briefings, particularly at the national security level. They're able to get briefings on things of critical importance. And then there's a third. It's with the Department of Justice and it allows the FBI to conduct background checks on Cabinet picks, sub Cabinet picks, people who would work in the administration. And those aren't happening right now because as far as we know, it hasn't been signed. And I have reached out to the Trump transition. They have not gotten back to me with answers to my specific questions. But I will say right after the election they told us that they weren't ruling out signing these, but that they were still working through the process.

[Miles Parks]

Ron, I wonder what your takeaway from hearing Tam's reporting here is. I mean, is this normally something that kind of has a level of rockiness to it or has this traditionally been a fairly smooth handoff?

[Ron Elving]

It takes a bit of memory to get back to what usual looks like because we've had a lot of rocky transitions lately. Four years ago, it was up in the air who had won the presidential election, at least in the mind of Donald Trump and therefore in the mind of many of the people in his administration. Now, some of the stuff on the ground level went forward, but a lot of the high profile people in the first administration of Donald Trump continued to deny that he had lost the election, including the president at that time, Trump himself. So that made that transition very difficult. In 2000, there was a big question as to who had won very hard to go forward when you don't know who the president is going to be. And that took five weeks before the Supreme Court essentially decided it. So when you go all the way back, yeah, there was more of a spirit of cooperation, peaceful transfer of power and so on. But it's been a long time.

[Miles Parks]

I do want to ask you, Tam, though, I feel like there has been this sense since Trump won the election that Trump learned a lot from the first go around in a bunch of different aspects of his presidency and that he was going to hit the ground running here in round number two. What you're saying, I guess about this transition being a little bit rocky so far? I guess I wonder just how that squares with this notion that they have taken all these lessons from 2016 because the transition then was kind of rocky as well.

[Tamara Keith]

Right. I think that there is like a real conflict there because they did learn a lot and they are moving incredibly fast, much faster than he did last time around in announcing the people he wants to be in his cabinet. But when you get below the surface, it's not clear that they aren't going to make the same mistakes in different ways. And let me try to explain that. Chris Christie was the transition chief for the first Trump administration. He had a staff. He signed all of those memoranda of understanding that we're talking about, and then he was summarily fired. His binders full of recommendations were basically kindling. And the Trump team started anew, losing all of that work. Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, was actually on a Council of Foreign Relations zoom call yesterday that I monitored, and he was asked about this. Do you think this time is going to be any different? And he gave this anecdote about a conversation he had with Trump during the first campaign.

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He said to me, chris, I know you're serious about this transition stuff, but I don't want you to spend too much time on it because, look, you and I are both so smart. He said that we could leave the victory party on election night two or three hours early and get the whole transition done. I don't think he feels any differently today. He's not right and he wasn't right then.

[Tamara Keith]

Yeah. So the fear that I hear from people, including Christie, others who specialize in transitions, their concern is that because the Trump transition didn't sign these documents, they aren't doing FBI vetting of their Cabinet picks at this point, that at some point they're just not going to have their people in place.

[Miles Parks]

Ron, what do you make of this question of whether Trump has kind of learned anything from the first go around? Based on what we're seeing in this.

[Ron Elving]

Transition time, it does seem as though he has inverted the mistakes of 2016. Arguably, some people have reported he was somewhat surprised when he won in 2016, and he did seem to have let teams of people get started. But then he fired Chris Christie just shortly after the Election Day and he replaced him with Mike Pence. But he did not bring out his Cabinet picks very quickly at all. In fact, the major ones for State and for Department of Treasury and Interior and so on were all well after Thanksgiving, some not until January, believe it or not, and quite a few of them were in December. So that seemed to have gone fairly slowly. But there was a fair amount of cooperation that had gone on, as Tam says, below that particular level. The exception, the people he named first that Trump named first for his first term were Jeff Sessions, who came right out of the box, were just about the first one he named, and Betsy DeVos. And you could say that those were, well, somewhat ill fated choices. He fired Jeff Sessions two years later, and Betsy DeVos was the only one of his first term nominations who only got a tie vote in the Senate had to be broken by Pence to break the tie in the Senate.

[Tamara Keith]

The lesson Trump learned was that he shouldn't pick people who others say are good, that make people feel comfortable. He should just pick people who he knows will be loyal to him, will do what he wants them to do. That was the lesson. The lesson wasn't about any of the sort of transition process. And in fact, it's possible that the lesson he took, and we don't know yet because we are still early in the process, it could be the lesson that he learned is, gosh, all that procedural technical stuff and ethics agreements and background, all of that was just a giant pain.

[Miles Parks]

All right. Let's take a quick break. And when we come back, I want to talk about what this means for the United States.

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[Miles Parks]

And we're back. The federal government is huge and has a huge number of political appointees and people who would theoretically be involved in this process who are not just like the top headline names.

[Ron Elving]

That's right. There are scores of them, more than scores, hundreds of people whose nominations need to be confirmed by the Senate. But the focus is going to be on the few that are going to be controversial. The Senate is probably going to deal with most of the rest in batch form. They're not going to spend weeks having confirmation hearings about every single one of them. But the focus is going to be primarily on this Fast and Furious release of four that Trump had to know were going to be somewhat controversial. There may be some others coming. Here are the people that we're talking about. The first one was Pete Hegseth to be the Secretary of Defense. Then we got Tulsi Gabbard, who is a former member of Congress and a Democrat. She has been named to be the Director of National Intelligence. Then you got Matt Gaetz, who may still be the headline in all of this, as the attorney General nominee. And then finally Robert F. Kennedy Jr. I suspect, I don't know if it's going to be Matt Gaetz or if it's going to be Tulsi Gabbard, but there's probably going to be a certain amount of desire on the part of at least a few Republicans to raise a flag. So we don't really have a precedent for a president coming out like this with a flurry of challenging appointments of this nature. We're going to have to see how much they actually are willing to divulge without a memorandum of understanding. We're going to have to see how much the Senate committee might, each of the Senate committees of jurisdiction might insist upon.

[Miles Parks]

Trump is showing this willingness to kind of push ahead with these very controversial nominees. And at this point, without these mouse tam, is there precedent for kind of flouting this traditional part of the transition and what would actually happen if they just were to choose not to sign these things?

[Tamara Keith]

I've talked to experts who are following this, and yes, these things are required by law or described in law. They aren't purely norms, but there isn't really an enforcement mechanism, no matter whether these get signed or not. Donald Trump becomes president on January 20, and then it will be his Justice Department, and no MOU is needed. The question is, will the Senate say, we still want these background checks, we still are going to require this ethics paperwork, or are they going to say, well, we have enough and we can vote? That's where the real pressure point is ultimately going to be. And, you know, why do these ethics agreements matter? Well, they're actually there to protect both the American people and the equities of the American people, but primarily to protect the people taking on these very big jobs, because there are laws against conflict of interest or putting your own interest above the United States, you know, personally profiting, for instance, from your work in the government. And that's why that exists. But in a Trump administration, I've talked to people who say, is the Trump Justice Department really going to be concerned in going after ethics issues? Maybe not, because Trump, although he nodded to the idea of divesting in his first term, he didn't actually really divest from his business interests. And he has already said, for instance, that he's not selling his stock, in truth, social.

[Miles Parks]

It does make me wonder, Ron, how much we're just going to end up talking about, whether it's norms. I'm just having so many flashbacks from the 2017, 2018 era of how much, whether it's talking about norms or talking about the kind of nitty gritty aspects of bureaucracy that Trump in some cases just doesn't seem all that interested in.

[Ron Elving]

He's not. And I think he has in the past tried to de. Emphasize his lack of interest in that and show a certain amount of respect for it. But those days seem to be in the past. He's not facing the voters again. He has before him the prospect of unified government. That is very much in his train. They do see themselves as owing their jobs largely to Donald Trump, not that he was necessary to their election in this most recent election, but that he would be necessary to their next election. So whether you're a House member running in just two years or a senator looking down the pike, you know that if you buck Donald Trump on any of this stuff, whether it's MOUs or things of that nature, or voting against one of his nominees for his Cabinet, you can count on having a challenge in your next primary from a more Trump loyal Republican who will run against you for your seat. And that, at a minimum, will cost you a great deal of money and a great deal of time and make you more vulnerable come November. That's a big, big sword of Damocles over all these senators.

[Miles Parks]

Well, we are two months away from Inauguration Day, Tam. What are you watching for next? As this transition kind of keeps rolling.

[Tamara Keith]

On, it is possible that these forms could get signed, that these agreements could get signed. So I'm definitely watching for that. I'm watching members of the Biden administration speak in increasingly urgent terms about their desire to have a smooth transfer of power. And they are speaking about it in such a way that it is like they are trying to will it into existence. I'm watching to see if ultimately the Trump team does sign the paperwork, does begin these processes, and that, you know, maybe this moment of alarm will pass or maybe it will become the norm. I don't know.

[Miles Parks]

All right, well, let's leave it there for today. I'm Miles Parks.

[Tamara Keith]

I cover voting I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

[Ron Elving]

And I'm Ron Elving, editor, correspondent.

[Miles Parks]

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

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