The NPR Politics Podcast

Episode: Unpacking The New Jersey And Virginia Races For Governor

Date: October 6, 2025
Hosts/Panelists:

• Tamara Keith (White House reporter)
• Ashley Lopez (Politics reporter)
• Nancy Solomon (WNYC, Host of Dead End: Crime and Politics)
• Margaret Barthel (WAMU)

Overview

This episode focuses on two high-stakes gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, exploring the candidates, central issues, and the broader national implications. The discussion emphasizes local versus national dynamics, the role of moderate politics, economic concerns—particularly affordability—and the use of culture war topics in campaign strategies.

New Jersey Governor’s Race

Key Participants:

• Mikie Sherrill (Democratic nominee)
• Jack Ciattarelli (Republican nominee)
• Analysis by Nancy Solomon ([02:05]-[08:42])

Candidates

• Mikie Sherrill

  • Three-term congresswoman, elected in the 2018 “Blue Wave.”
  • Self-positioned as a disciplined moderate.
  • Background: Navy helicopter pilot, federal prosecutor.
  • Critiqued by progressives during the primary but sticks to the moderate lane.

• Jack Ciattarelli

  • Former State Assemblyman, businessman, and three-time gubernatorial candidate.
  • Supported by President Trump; has shifted from moderate Republican to full "MAGA" alignment.
  • Brings independent wealth to the campaign.

Major Issues in the Race

• Turnout and Voter Motivation:

  • Nancy Solomon: “Which candidate can pull out the most votes and get the most turnout?... They really do offer very, very different visions for the future of the state.” [03:17]
  • New Jersey is not as solidly blue in gubernatorial races as its national reputation suggests.

• Affordability and High Taxes:

  • Local discontent over property tax burden and general unaffordability persists across party lines.
  • Nancy Solomon: “Voters are very upset about how unaffordable the state is… high property taxes...” [04:40]

• National vs. Local Issues:

  • Influence of national politics is strong, but core local concerns (taxes, affordability) drive the race.

• Trump’s Influence:

  • Ciattarelli’s embrace of Trump is a focal point; some voters will vote Democrats as a reaction against Trump.

Economic Messaging and Campaign Criticism

• Energy Costs and Blame Game:

  • Rising electric bills (up 20% in June) have become a flashpoint.
  • Ciattarelli ties increases to clean energy policies and plant closures, blaming Democrats.
  • Nancy Solomon counters the narrative: “Two of the plants were closed by Chris Christie, a Republican… If we could get those clean energy projects online…prices would come down.” [07:02]

• Debate over Affordability Focus:

  • Criticism that Sherrill focuses too much on Trump and not enough on costs.
  • Nancy Solomon: “If we take a drink every time she mentions Donald Trump, we’re all going to be drunk.” [06:37]

Race Dynamics

• It’s a Toss-up:
  • “No, it’s really neck and neck.” — Nancy Solomon [08:09]
  • Central question: Will the race serve as a referendum on Trump or on outgoing Governor Murphy? [08:11]

Virginia Governor’s Race

Key Participants:

• Winsome Earl Sears (Republican nominee, current Lieutenant Governor)
• Abigail Spanberger (Democratic nominee, former Congresswoman)
• Analysis by Margaret Barthel ([10:10]-[19:43])

Candidates

• Winsome Earl Sears

  • Sits as Lieutenant Governor, former House Delegate.
  • Campaigning as Youngkin 2.0 with focus on social and cultural issues.
  • Lacks Trump’s endorsement for now and trails in polling and fundraising.

• Abigail Spanberger

  • Similar moderate profile to Sherrill: former three-term Congresswoman, ex-CIA officer.
  • Central campaign focus: affordability and the economic impact of Trump administration workforce cuts in Virginia.

Central Issues

• National Politics and Local Impact:

  • The federal workforce’s presence gives national dynamics “outsized” influence.
  • Shutdowns and Trump administration policies are top concerns due to direct impact on Virginia jobs. [13:05]

• Culture Wars and Transgender Issues:

  • Earl Sears leans heavily into debates about transgender student rights in schools.
  • Ashley Lopez: “Republicans probably want to talk about the economy more, but that is not a strong issue for them right now. So they’re kind of stuck to these culture war issues.” [15:48]
  • Margaret Barthel observes that this motivates the base, but is not a top general voter concern according to polling.

• Polling Snapshot:

  • Spanberger leads by more than 10 points. Economy is voters’ top concern; education and trans issues are far lower priority. [16:00-17:25]

National Implications

How These Races Shape National Politics ([17:43]-[19:43])

• Tea Leaf Reading:

  • These races are used to predict and interpret national trends ahead of midterms.
  • Ashley Lopez: “Losing any of these two states would be a hit to the gut [for Democrats] because...Governors are playing a very key role in the, quote, unquote, resistance against Donald Trump right now because Democrats don’t have a majority in the House, they don’t have a majority in the Senate. They’re out of the White House.” [18:06]

• Moderate vs. Progressive Stakes:

  • Results may serve as a test of moderate Democratic appeal versus more progressive approaches.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “If we take a drink every time she mentions Donald Trump, we’re all going to be drunk.” — Nancy Solomon on criticism of Mikie Sherrill’s messaging ([06:37])
• “Democrats pretty much only have power at the state level. Governors are playing a very key role in the ‘resistance’ against Donald Trump right now…” — Ashley Lopez ([18:06])
• “Virginia is a pretty moderate state when it comes right down to it. And we'll see how that sort of message plays in the midst of all of the Trump administration sort of back and forth.” — Margaret Barthel ([19:28])

Key Timestamps

• [02:05] – Start of New Jersey race analysis; backgrounds on Sherrill and Ciattarelli
• [03:17] – Voter turnout, ideological divides, and the role of Trump
• [04:40] – Local economic issues in focus (property taxes, affordability)
• [06:06] – Criticism of Sherrill’s messaging and debate over energy prices
• [08:09] – Race polling and unpredictability
• [10:10] – Introduction to Virginia race and candidate profiles
• [13:05] – Federal workforce impact, shutdown, and key voter issues in Virginia
• [15:48] – Use of culture wars as a strategy in off-cycle elections
• [16:00] – Polling insights: Spanberger leads, economy is the key voter priority
• [18:06] – Importance of these races for Democrats at the state level and overall resistance to Trump
• [19:17] – The moderate wing vs. progressive wing debate in the Democratic party

Conclusion

Both gubernatorial races reflect deeper national currents: the push and pull between national and local issues, the challenge of affordability dominating voter concerns, and shifting approaches to party messaging. The outcomes in New Jersey and Virginia will serve as important signals both for the midterms and for the future of moderate politics in a polarized environment.