Mary Louise Kelly (3:00)

Yeah, I know. You were filing hours before I woke up, into all of our newsroom channels, you were filing, you know, those air raid sirens going off. Just to be clear, you are. You're safe. You're talking to us from a safe place.

Daniel Estrin (3:14)

Yeah, I'm in my apartment in Tel Aviv. And, you know, you just are kind of reflexively responding to these air raid sirens like we have in the last two and a half years. You jump immediately to the safe room. You close the metal, the kind of the metal plates that protect the windows, and you're in. And that's how I have spent the last. I don't even know how many hours the entire day, in and out.

Mary Louise Kelly (3:38)

Greg, I wanna bring you in and I wanna go big picture for a moment. You and I were just speaking on this podcast a day or two ago. You were talking through, as you saw it, three ways that this could play out. One was that the US And Iran would keep talking, that diplomacy might actually achieve something and pull us back from the brink. The second possibility you saw was some limited strikes, and the third was we would see something big. It feels like this is the third plus the third on steroids. This is big.

Greg Myre (4:12)

Absolutely. Trump went big, perhaps as big as you could go with the force that's been assembled there. I mean, this was just a massive bombing campaign on day one by the US by the Israelis as well. You know, we're talking what appears to be hundreds of strikes, as best we can tell, maybe a dozen or so cities around or sites around the country that were hit. Israel focused on going after top political leaders, including the Supreme Leader and the president. They say President Trump says the US Will go after not only the nuclear program, but the missile program and the Navy. And he told the Revolutionary Guards to lay down their weapons if they want to live. So given the force that was assembled, which was large, but it was a navy force and an air force, not a ground force, he absolutely chose the big option. Question is, how long will this go on? That's the part we don't know yet.

Mary Louise Kelly (5:09)

I mean, another question is what we are learning from those targets that were chosen and now hit. And I'm going to put this one to you, Greg, but, Daniel, jump in anytime you want to add something to this. I mean, the attacks targeting Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, and Pisanskian, the President of Iran, that speaks to regime change, right? I mean, we were wondering for weeks now, is regime change the goal? We seem to have an answer.

Greg Myre (5:38)

Absolutely. You know, and Trump was giving these Very fuzzy, vague answers. Oh, a negotiated deal would be great. He was asked at one point was he going to go for a limited option? And he said, yeah, I'm considering that. But no, he. Several of the things he did, including going after the top leaders on day one, shows that this was the plan. It wasn't just like they saw a target of opportunity here. They were clearly going after them. Interesting, the talk, and I haven't heard this from an official person, but the talk is, you know, these strikes began on Saturday morning, not in the middle of the night, but the thinking perhaps is that they would feel safer and be in their normal place during the morning, not sleeping somewhere, tucked away, safe. So it seemed like even the whole first day of strikes was arranged around some of these things so that they could go after.

Daniel Estrin (6:37)

I mean, just speaking to that for a second, an Israeli military official told US Reporters that, actually, yes, both the US And Israeli militaries were looking for the right moment to. To strike when senior Iranian officials would be meeting. So they found their moment. And this official told us that the Israelis struck at three separate gatherings of senior officials simultaneously on Saturday morning. And they said several central government figures in Iran were killed. We're still not getting the identities. We have heard that Khamenei, the supreme leader, was targeted and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just moments ago in a press conference said there are growing signs that Khamenei was killed.

Mary Louise Kelly (7:26)

Wow, that would really be something, Greg.

Greg Myre (7:29)

Yeah. Just to add, Saturday is the first day of the week in work week in Iran. So it's kind of like Monday morning, you've got this big crisis. You would expect everybody to gather at 9 o' clock or so, just after 9 o' clock in Iran when these attacks began.

Mary Louise Kelly (7:46)

And for ordinary Iranians, that means they were up and about and trying to get to and from school and work and going about, going about their day, going about their life. One other thing before we move on from what we are starting to understand about the goals of these strikes. President Trump made clear in his remarks from Mar? A Lago earlier today that stopping Iran getting a nuclear weapon is a goal. He has said that repeatedly. That's been a consistent position of American presidents across both parties across many years. Now, I just want to note, Daniel, Iran says it is not trying to develop a nuclear weapon. President Trump had told us that the nuclear program was obliterated last summer. We haven't seen evidence yet, have we? They have not presented evidence that Iran was, in fact, successfully rebuilding a program.

Daniel Estrin (8:38)

They have not presented that evidence. But today an Israeli military official told reporters that one of the reasons that Israel is trying to build this case for why it attacked now is they said first that Iran was concealing its efforts to repair its nuclear program and was intending on starting it up. But another big reason that the Israelis are laying out is its missile program. And that, I think, is actually the number one most immediate reason that the Israelis are laying out and which we

Mary Louise Kelly (9:13)

saw on full display today in terms of Iran's response.

Daniel Estrin (9:17)

Absolutely. The Israelis are saying that in recent months they've detected a spike, an acceleration in the the missiles being produced in Iran Monthly and basically saying that they they the time was now to take them out. And we did see many rounds of of missiles fired at Israel today, although we were in bomb shelters in and out all day today. But relatively a low level of missiles were fired at Israel. That might mean an Iranian strategy to kind of, you know, spread it out across what might be a long campaign.

Mary Louise Kelly (10:00)

We're going to take a break when we get back, staying with the Iran story and the latest developments both here in Washington and from the region. That's ahead on Sources and Methods from npr,

Narrator/Host (10:15)

Support for this podcast and the following message come from Strawberry Me. Be honest. Are you happy with your job? Are you stuck in a job you've outgrown or never wanted in the first place? Are your reasons for staying really just excuses for not leaving? Let a career coach from Strawberry Me help you get unstuck, discover the benefits of having a dedicated career coach in your Corner and get 50% off your first coaching session at Strawberry Me this year on Throughline, NPR's history podcast. For generations, an American quest has shaped the world. Life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness. Now, 250 years in, what is that pursuit really about? Join us each Tuesday for an essential new series, america in Pursuit, from Throughline on the NPR app or wherever you get podcasts on.

Greg Myre (11:09)

Wait, wait, don't tell me.

Daniel Estrin (11:10)

It's not so much we get to talk to celebrities, it's that we get to talk to celebrities about other celebrities,

Greg Myre (11:16)

like we did with actor Nathan Lane. I remember having to tell George C. Scott that I was leaving the show to do this musical and he said to me, you're leaving me to do a magic show.

Daniel Estrin (11:29)

Listen to Wait, Wait. In the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

Mary Louise Kelly (11:37)

As we as we all try to understand the contours of this, I want to play a little bit more of President Trump. This is him speaking from Mar a Lago. That's interesting, actually. That this was done while he was at Mar a Lago. He didn't stay at the White House for this. This weekend he came out, he was wearing a bright white baseball cap with USA across it, and he said this.

President Donald Trump (11:58)

For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted Death to America and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder targeting the United States, our troops and the innocent people in many, many countries. Among the regime's very first acts was to back a violent takeover of the US embassy in Tehran, holding dozens of American hostages for 444 days.

Mary Louise Kelly (12:27)

So, you know, I've walked the streets of Tehran. I have heard those death to America chance that is real. But I wanted to play this because the framing feels notable. President Trump framing this as going back to 1979, that US actions today should be understood as being rooted in Americans being taken and held hostage at the U.S. embassy in the 1970s, when, Greg, you and I were. We were kids.

Greg Myre (12:55)

Yeah. And again, I think this goes to the fact that Trump is seeing this as regime change. Something big historic here. We didn't hear about this in the run up to this or the bombing last summer. It was always about the nuclear program. Fairly well focused or even just kind of vague in recent days. But, yeah, he picked up really the most traumatic moments in the U. S. Iran relationship over the past half century

Mary Louise Kelly (13:23)

and seems to be trying to bookend it.

Greg Myre (13:24)

The taking of the hostages, a 1983 bombing in Beirut where 241 US troops were killed, the hundreds of Americans killed mostly with roadside bombs in Iraq by militants linked to Iran. So, you know, he's, this is not just about the nuclear program or stopping something. This is something big. It's about this Islamic Shiite clerical regime which has been. Has bedeviled every single US President since then.

Mary Louise Kelly (13:59)

He also, President Trump also seems to be stealing Americans for combat deaths. He said American heroes may be lost. We may have casualties. That often happens in war. What else do we know about the scope and possible duration of this?

Greg Myre (14:15)

Well, we don't, other than the fact that he's clearly planning to achieve regime change to wipe out a lot of what Iran has on the military front. So that's going to take time. So that's, I would think, would be point number one. The other key point, though, is we still don't see any likelihood of ground troops. The US does have ground troops scattered around these bases in the Middle East. A few tens of thousands may sound like a lot, but when you're dealing with a country of 90 million people it's not that many. They're not in the same place. They're not gathered together near the Iranian border. So you won't see ground troops. And again, that's from a military perspective, means you plan to have few or no casualties because you have a small number of pilots in planes and sailors on ships that are well protected, but you don't have the ground troops.

Mary Louise Kelly (15:10)

DANIEL what about Israel's leaders? What are Netanyahu and others saying about how long they foresee this operation going?

Daniel Estrin (15:17)

Well, one person briefed on the strikes and on the operation told me that the expectation is a couple of very intensive days, talking about an intense Sunday, an intense Monday. So that that would be three intensive days, and then it might last for some days after that, maybe as long as a week. I think we already are seeing indications that the Israeli military opened with an enormous blitz. It says it has completed its biggest air force operation in Israeli history, 200 fighter jets hitting about 500 targets throughout Iran and focusing, as I mentioned earlier, on those three places where they say that the senior leaders were meeting. So opening with a major surprise. And we heard from one former Israeli military intelligence chief, Amos Yadlin, who was saying that he predicts what he called a hit and run. So a few days or maybe up to a week of strikes, and then he predicts some country stepping in and mediating a ceasefire. He said it's very plausible that the US And Iran could then go back to negotiations and the US Would make some very tough demands, whether that's zero enrichment of uranium and other demands on its nuclear program. He says the big factor is going to be who's been killed among Iran's leadership. This morning, once the dust has settled and we know who has been killed and who survives, maybe that can give us an indication of, okay, are there, is there an opening here? Maybe more moderate generals within Iran's military who could come forward and say, okay, let's take another path, let's take our country down another path and negotiate a deal.

Mary Louise Kelly (17:00)

He's doing a lot of work in that sentence, Daniel. Maybe, maybe.

Daniel Estrin (17:04)

It's a lot of maybe.

Greg Myre (17:05)

Yes.

Mary Louise Kelly (17:05)

As we often say on this podcast, no guarantee that whatever comes next is any better than what you had. What do we know about Iran's response? DANIEL Just walk us through. I've got a map of the Middle east pulled up in here. It is lit up. Iran is lobbing missiles all over the place.

Daniel Estrin (17:22)

Yes. Well, besides Israel, Iran said it targeted 14 US military bases in the Middle East. By my count, throughout the map Iran has has hit at six different countries besides Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, a US Navy base in Bahrain, also Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. That's a lot.

Mary Louise Kelly (17:50)

We're going to take a short break. When we get back, President Trump's message to the people of Iran. That's ahead on Sources and Methods from npr. Coming up on the Here and Now Anytime podcast. Squirrels, ferrets and moose. Oh my. Climate change is making it harder to be a mammal these days. Our reporting project Reverse Course returns with stories of science in action. From the frozen northwoods of Minnesota to the desert of Arizona. Listen to here and now anytime, wherever you get your podcasts.

Greg Myre (18:26)

I met this guy on the bar train one time and I had my bass with me and he goes, man, what do you want to do? What's your dream?

Mary Louise Kelly (18:32)

I'm Jesse Thorne on Bullseye.

Greg Myre (18:34)

Rafael Siddiq.

Mary Louise Kelly (18:35)

He's nominated for an Oscar, he played bass for Prince, and of course he co founded Tony, Tony, Tony.

Greg Myre (18:42)

I want to be in a band with my brother.

Mary Louise Kelly (18:44)

That's on the next Bullseye. Find us in the NPR app@maximumfun.org or wherever you get podcasts. We're back. President Trump was speaking to Americans today when he faced the cameras at Mar a Lago and announced the start of American military action. But he also had a message for Iran.

President Donald Trump (19:04)

To the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.

Mary Louise Kelly (19:27)

Greg, how should we understand that the president of the US Calling on the people of Iran, Stand up. Rise up.

Greg Myre (19:33)

Yeah, those last two lines really jumped out at me instantly because it's undeniable. He's calling for regime change. It tells you about his approach. It tells you the kinds of risk he's willing to take here. And it's also just so striking because Trump has been saying since he first started running for president in 2015, 16 that he would keep the US out of these open ended wars. And yet here we are again in the Middle east, right next door to Iraq, where you saw arguably the most difficult US Military excursion of all. And it also reminded me all the way back to the 1991 US war against Iraq, the first war against Iraq, because President George H.W. bush drove Iraqi troops out of Kuwait, but he decided not to send the US Troops all the way to Baghdad to take over the country drive out Saddam Hussein, which it seemed they could do if they'd wanted. But he encouraged Iraqis to rise up against Saddam, which they did. However, Saddam regrouped and his military killed thousands and thousands of Iraqis who were completely outgunned. So this was really for a long time a cautionary tale. You have to be careful about asking people to rise up if you're not going to provide them with any support or protection. And these are mostly unarmed civilians. And we saw this literally last month in Iran where the security forces cracked down brutally on demonstrators and killed thousands of them.

Mary Louise Kelly (21:09)

Let's spend a moment or two trying to decipher what we can of how events are actually playing out in Iran. I was swapping WhatsApp messages this morning with contacts on the ground in Tehran. These are people who were not willing to speak on the record or to use their name, but noteworthy that they could send a message on WhatsApp. They had access behind a VPN to the Internet social media. They were saying their home safe reporting big traffic jams in Tehran, which is not unusual. Tehran is known for terrible traffic, but it may suggest people trying to leave the city or get somewhere safe. I also want to share a little bit. Our colleague NPR's Arzu Rezvani has been in contact with people in Iran herself who have been sending voice memos in so this is 30 something year old V. V lives in Tehran, giving only his first initial because of fear of retribution. V told Arzu that he was settling into work when the attack started and

Daniel Estrin (22:12)

suddenly heard some loud noises and then the explosions. We even saw one of the explosions from our office window. It was around the middle of the city, downtown Tehran.

Mary Louise Kelly (22:25)

Arzu has also been in touch with a 22 year old college student who requested complete anonymity. This student woke up to the sound of explosions and she says this is a day she's long hoped for. So she's saying there I am ready to be killed by a bomb if it means the certain death of even a few of our regime officials. So a couple of voices there from inside Iran. What other questions are on Yalls minds as we try to figure out where this may go in the country at the center of it all?

Greg Myre (22:58)

I think you just don't know how people are going to react. It is so shocking even if you've been through a war or a traumatic experience before. To wake up to the sound of explosions and think that this could be a drawn out war just makes your mind race, makes your head spin and you don't know how people react. We saw all those Iranians take to the streets last month. Clearly they were upset with the government. But after the crackdown and so many people were killed, are they going to be willing to go out there again? I don't know the answer to that. Some portion of the population just wants to keep their head down regardless of what happens. Others might be willing to rise up. There's just such uncertainty, and especially in a country where you don't have foreign journalists or Westerners who you just don't have a lot of access to, so it's hard to know. And you hear a voice and is that representative of a broad swath of the population or is that just that one individual? So I find this moment hard to gauge in a country and also a country where you can't just walk the streets and talk to people and have routine conversations to try to figure out exactly where the the 90 million people stand on an issue.

Mary Louise Kelly (24:13)

When you do go there, I know from my experience on a couple of Iran reporting trips, they're short. You can't stay there for long. And you always wonder how freely do people feel they can speak when they're speaking to a Western journalist and possibly putting themselves, their families at risk by even stopping to talk to you. Daniel let's walk through the stakes for the rest of the region. We ticked through which places Iran has fired back at in terms of diplomacy, in terms of the fears, concerns, risks, opportunities, you know, that the rest of the Middle east sees in this. Just give us a few things to listen for and watch for.

Daniel Estrin (24:55)

Well, first, we should remember that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz today, so no ships are being allowed to pass. And that is really crucial. This is a strategic waterway. It connects the biggest oil producers in the Gulf to the export route that they can get their oil out to the world. This could raise global oil prices and really crucial to the world's oil trade. So that's one thing to keep in mind from here in Israel, one major concern is will Iran's proxy militias join the fight? Will this expand? There is the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. There's a lot of concern that they may open fire at Israel, opening up yet another front. We do know that there is a lot of pressure in Lebanon against that. They do not want to see Hezbollah. Many people there don't want to see Hezbollah join the fight because it would draw a certain retaliation from Israel. I think I would just leave you with one more thought that I had today. I was actually surprised. And in between air raid sirens. I went out to the street in Tel Aviv and I met a woman walking her dog who is very apprehensive. She doesn't have a safe room in her home. Some friends of mine with children, Israelis who were saying that their children are scared, they're very nervous. They don't you know, I think you get one sense in Israel that there is a kind of a wall to wall political support, which is true. Even the opposition in Israel is supportive of these strikes. And they see this as kind of golden opportunity with all the US Military buildup in the region to really strike at Iran and the and strike at this big enemy. But for average people here, they're really tired after two and a half years of war. And you know how war starts. You don't know how it ends. And I'm hearing a lot more apprehension than I think I had expected.

Mary Louise Kelly (26:49)

Here we've been speaking to Daniel Estrin, NPR's correspondent in Tel Aviv, also Greg Myrey, NPR national security correspondent. Thank you. Thanks. Huge thanks to you both for taking the time on another really busy, crazy news day.

Greg Myre (27:04)

Sure thing, Mary Louise. Lots more to come. You're welcome.

Mary Louise Kelly (27:07)

That's it for today's special episode of Sources and Methods. And a reminder, you can email us with your feedback, your questions at sources and methods, all1wordpr.org and if you're enjoying the show, you can support us by leaving a rating or review on the platform where you listen in a world of algorithms that goes a long way toward helping new listeners find the show. MARY I'm Mary Louise Kelly. We're back on Thursday with our next regular episode of Sources and Methods from npr.