The NPR Politics Podcast: U.S. Had Better-Than-Expected Job Growth In September
Date Recorded: November 20, 2025
Hosts: Miles Parks, Danielle Kurtzleben
Guest: Scott Horsley
Episode Overview
In this episode, the NPR Politics team unpacks the long-delayed September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which showed stronger-than-anticipated job growth. They analyze the numbers, the Trump administration's mixed messaging on the economy, implications for interest rates, and discuss the political and real-world impacts of both data and policies. The episode also explores the disconnect between economic indicators and public sentiment, the ongoing effects of tariffs, and what to watch for in upcoming reports.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. The September Jobs Report: Content, Delay, and Takeaways
Timestamp: 01:13–02:07
- Delayed Release: Report was delayed nearly seven weeks due to a government shutdown (“blow the dust off the COVID of this report”—Scott Horsley, 01:31).
- Headline Numbers:
- 119,000 jobs added in September, beating most forecasters’ expectations.
- Revisions showed even weaker job growth in July and August than previously reported.
- “It paints kind of a mixed picture.” —Scott Horsley (01:31)
2. White House & Administration Messaging
Timestamp: 02:07–04:22
- Highlighting Wins: Administration emphasizes better-than-expected job growth and private sector hiring, focusing on gains for native-born workers.
- Vice President J.D. Vance’s Perspective: Calls for patience, referencing Biden’s impact and the need for time to repair the economy.
- Quote: “Even though we've made incredible progress, we understand that there's a lot more work to do. And the thing that I'd ask for the American people is a little bit of patience. This economy was not harmed in 10 months.” —J.D. Vance (03:03)
- President Trump’s Messaging: Focuses on “affordability,” sometimes downplaying price increases.
- Messaging Struggles: Contrasting approaches—Vance acknowledges ongoing struggles; Trump speaks more optimistically.
- “They're really struggling to find coherent messaging they can all latch onto.” —Danielle Kurtzleben (03:56)
3. Manufacturing, Jobs, and Tariffs
Timestamp: 04:22–05:40
- Manufacturing Job Losses: Despite tariffs intended to boost domestic manufacturing, the sector remains sluggish.
- Industry Pushback: Monthly ISM reports cite factory manager complaints about how tariffs are worsening business conditions.
- “Every month that report is just filled with quotes lambasting the administration's tariffs as making life miserable for factories.” —Scott Horsley (05:17)
4. Interest Rates: What Does the Data Signal?
Timestamp: 05:40–07:02
- Fed Division: October FOMC minutes reveal strong disagreement regarding a potential December rate cut.
- Jobs Report Impact:
- Downward revisions and a rise in the unemployment rate could argue for a cut.
- The stronger headline jobs number suggests the job market isn’t collapsing.
- Current Market Odds: December interest rate cut now seen as a coin toss, not a certainty.
5. Political Interference in Statistics & Delays
Timestamp: 07:02–09:18
- BLS Leadership Controversy: President Trump fired the BLS head for an unsatisfactory July report and tried to install a partisan figure, E.J. Antoni, who ultimately withdrew after pushback.
- Report Delays: Leadership instability, shutdowns, and missed data collections will continue to disrupt economic reporting.
- Integrity Assurances: No evidence of data manipulation; BLS has been transparent about what’s missing due to shutdowns.
- “The bureau has been very transparent about this. We're gonna have to be patient to get the information. But it's still, I think, reliable when it comes out.” —Scott Horsley (08:51)
6. K-Shaped Economy: Disconnect Between Data and Reality
Timestamp: 10:50–13:24
- Winners and Losers: Booming stock market benefits wealthy, while most Americans see groceries and essentials as bigger economic indicators.
- Retailer Observations: Middle- and lower-income consumers are reining in spending, focusing on basics.
- “McDonald's, for example, has had a pretty good quarter largely because of the value menu, people trying to save money at the Golden Arches.” —Scott Horsley (12:55)
- Cabinet Wealth: Discussion of the most affluent presidential cabinet ever assembled—possible causes for the disconnect in messaging and perception.
7. Public Opinion: Trump and the Economy
Timestamp: 14:34–15:49
- Declining Approval: Trump’s economic approval ratings have fallen according to several polls, despite previous strength on the issue.
- Voter Priorities: Recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows lowering prices vastly outpaces immigration as the top issue (57% vs 16%). Partisan splits remain, but economic concerns are bipartisan.
8. Tariffs, Policy Levers, and Critique
Timestamp: 15:49–17:35
- Tariffs Remain Central: Removal of select tariffs (coffee, bananas) intended to lower grocery costs. Unclear impact, as broad tariffs remain.
- Direct Payments: Trump proposes giving tariff revenue back to Americans as $2,000 checks, but economists question viability given revenue shortfall and inflation risks.
- “Slapping double digit tariffs on everything the U.S. imports and then rolling back a fraction of those tariffs does not seem like a move calculated to result in lower prices.” —Scott Horsley (17:12)
9. Inflation Risks & Economic Stimulus
Timestamp: 17:35–18:21
- Stimulus Risks: Additional cash payouts could stoke inflation, depending on how households use the money. Treasury Secretary suggests some might save the money.
- Legislative Hurdles: Any direct cash program would require Congressional approval—outcome is uncertain.
10. What’s Next? Data and Policy Watch
Timestamp: 18:28–19:36
- More Delays Ahead: The October jobs report will be incomplete; inflation data delayed.
- Fed’s Two Mandates: Full employment and stable prices; recent inflation ticked up to 3% in September, partly due to tariffs.
- Thanksgiving Silver Lining: Despite pressures, Thanksgiving meal set to be cheaper than last year’s.
- “Be grateful that we didn't build our national holiday around prime rib.” —Scott Horsley (19:29)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “You have a lot of wealthy business people in the cabinet. Now. Trump came to power sort of riding this wave of I am great at business, I'm a businessman. ...But I think that you're right. There is a fundamental disconnect.” —Danielle Kurtzleben (13:24)
- “The economy was not harmed in 10 months.” —J.D. Vance (03:16), reinforcing the administration’s messaging theme.
- “Every month that report is just filled with quotes lambasting the administration's tariffs as making life miserable for factories.” —Scott Horsley (05:17)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 01:31–02:07: Main findings from the delayed jobs report
- 03:03: J.D. Vance’s “patience” quote and administration’s messaging
- 04:46–05:40: Discussion on manufacturing job losses and tariffs’ effects
- 05:54–07:02: Interest rates and the Fed’s policy debate
- 07:21–09:18: BLS leadership controversy and shutdown impact on data integrity
- 10:50–13:24: Analysis of the K-shaped economy and disconnect
- 14:47–15:49: Polling data on Trump’s economic approval and voter priorities
- 16:05–17:35: Tariff policy criticisms and feasibility of $2,000 direct payments
- 18:40–19:36: What to watch for in future data releases and summary
Tone & Style
The episode balances dry wit and straight reporting (“Be grateful we didn’t build our national holiday around prime rib.”) with a clear-eyed breakdown of complex economic and political realities. The hosts blend policy analysis with accessible explanations and an acknowledgment of uncertainty and mixed signals.
This summary covers all major themes and insights for listeners wanting a full picture of how the latest data and political maneuvering is shaping perceptions of the U.S. economy.