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A
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B
Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics.
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C
And I'm Ashley Lopez. I also cover politics.
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B
And Jad Khalil from VPN News also joins us today. Welcome, Jad.
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D
Hey, thanks for having me.
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B
Absolutely. Today on the show, Virginia voters have two more weeks to decide whether their state joins the redistricting race, which could in turn decide which party controls the U.S. house of Representatives. Explain what Virginians are voting on. Exactly.
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D
Right. So this is a ballot question. So it's a yes or no question. And a yes vote would amend Virginia's constitution in a way that allows the state legislature to draw congressional maps in this sort of off cycle schedule, which is before the upcoming 2026 midterms. And a NOVA would not do that. And it would keep the current way of doing things, which is a bipartisan redistricting commission.
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B
How did this ballot measure end up on the ballot?
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D
So it was very fast to answer how. So usually Virginia amends its constitution over two years, but we kind of had an accelerated schedule to get maps ready in time for the midterms if this is to be successful. So the last sort of action was during the legislative session earlier this year. And the legislature sent a bill to the governor who set this referendum date.
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B
Right. The state in 2025 in November gave Democrats a trifecta, which then gave Democrats the opportunity to seek this redistricting. Ashley, let's put this in the bigger context. This is not the first time on the podcast that we have talked about a mid decade redistricting push.
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C
Nope. This has been going on since 2025. And you know, if this passes, what this means is that Democrats will have effectively beat back a big national effort started by Republicans, notably President Trump last year. And this effort was to give the party an edge heading into the midterms because Republicans were scared that things would look bad this year and that they would not fare well in the midterms. And I can run through all the states that have done this so far. Just to recap. This started with Texas. Trump asked Texas Republic to redraw their congressional map to add about five more seats that are favorable to the party. In response, California Democrats started their effort to do a sort of similar thing in Virginia, whereas to get a ballot measure in front of voters there to create five more favorable seats for Democrats that passed court seemed to be okay with both. So those are definitely going to be in front of voters during the midterms. And then, you know, you had North Carolina and Missouri, they also passed. They created a few more seats for Republicans, Ohio and Utah for differing reasons. It was more like court orders and statutes. They, you know, they were, they had to redraw their maps. But those both ended up being a nominal edge for Republicans. It wasn't a big redraw like you saw in Texas. And so if Virginia's get what could be, like, what is it? Four more seats in Virginia. That could pretty much mean this all ends in a wash. And this big effort, all the time and money, all the resources, all the political capital that has been used since last year to do this, ends with no party having any meaningful edge heading into the midterms, which would be pretty ironic.
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B
So is Virginia the end of the road? We are now in the midterm election year. Primaries are happening. What's left?
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C
Yeah, the, the calendar doesn't look good for any future prospect. For the exception of Florida, which already has a special legislative session on the books that at the end of this month, pretty much around the same time Virginia's ballot measure election wraps up, legislators in Florida will be considering a redraw of their map. That is also just like Virginia. I know we're going to talk about this. That is also not looking super. For sure there are Republicans there who don't want to make currently SAF seats less safe in Florida because Democrats just flipped two legislative seats there last month and one of them happens to be a state House seat that covers Mar a Lago. And they're like, I don't know, maybe like making existing seats less safe in Florida is not a good idea because it looks like a lot of voters that we depended on last time around are not gonna be there for us. So it is an open question whether Florida will get that done, but that seems to be the only state that's sort of left pending right now.
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B
Jad, early voting began a few weeks ago. Now, you've been out talking to people. What are you hearing?
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D
I've been mostly talking to people at polling places that are voting early. And I, you know, I was kind of surprised because this is a Weird calendar and a weird election in a lot of ways, because, you know, it's one. It's hyper partisan, but it's also not on paper partisan. You're not voting for a Democrat or Republican. But parties want a certain outcome. But even though it's sort of in this odd calendar, and the question is, is unusual, there's still a lot of voters that are coming out. So this off, off your election is getting similar amount of early vote that we had in the 2025 general election. So if you look at a number that's two weeks out from that November election date, and then, you know, today we're two weeks out from the April election date, they're kind of comparable numbers.
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C
Yeah. And you can't really draw any meaningful, you know, information from this in terms of how this is splitting partisan wise, because Virginia, you don't register with a party. So the only information that you can draw is like, how did these voters vote in the past primaries? Like, which ticket did they get? And so far, it's looking like a mix, which is pretty surprising because so far in special elections, it's been Democrats who have been really dominating. Not to say that that is not gonna be the outcome of this. It is just looking less and less like, clear what the picture is, like, how this is all gonna shake out right now. Yeah.
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B
I mean, Ashley, you covered the California ballot measure, and it was pretty clear how that story was gonna end. I think we have some actual suspense here in Virginia.
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C
Yeah, I mean, California look very different states. This is a bluish state. Very recently became a Democratic trifecta. You know, this is a state that has a lot of independent voters and, yes, Republicans, too. A lot of Republicans. So it is not like California, where there were. It's a majority Democratic state where they were mad at Texas. That also was a very, like, motivating force. When I was talking to voters there, they were very upset. The beef between California and Texas, these two big states. I lived in Texas for a long time. I could tell you, for some reason, this beef was always, like, sort of in the air. And then the electoral prospect of Texans getting more seats for Republicans. Anyways, it was a very different situation. And Virginia's election is happening at a time where Democrats are looking like the situation isn't as bad as it was potentially looking last year because Republicans were chatting about creating a deeper edge for themselves heading into the midterms. And now it's not looking like that's panning out. And so I just wonder, besides the fact that the electorate Looks different, the politics looks different. Yeah, this one's a harder one to call.
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B
So, Jad, what are. What are the voters you're talking to saying?
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D
I mean, there's a mix that you hear a lot of them kind of repeating some of the talking points that ads have been giving them. So you have people that are against the vote saying, you know, two rights don't make a wrong. Gerrymandering is bad. But you also have people on the other side of that saying gerrymandering is bad. But, you know, this is something that we kind of have to do because of the actions that Republican legislatures around the country have done. So I was in Hanover county, which is just north of Richmond, and I talked to Doug and Randy Berlin. They were voting yes, but they didn't sound that stoked about it.
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E
We're not really crazy about the gerrymandering process, but, you know, people say, well, they fight fire with fire. You know, is that good or is that bad? I mean, it's probably not really good. But in defense of liberty, you know, we feel that it's something that we. We need to come out and vote for.
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B
As the way things are going other states, I feel like this might be the only way to level the playing field for all states. These people are voting for it, and they don't sound that excited about it. What are the people who are voting against it saying?
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D
I picked up on some anger or frustration. One gentleman that I talked to said, like, we shouldn't even be here. Like, this is ridiculous that we're out here voting on this. I spoke to another person who was talking about how everything the Democrats are saying that the Republicans are doing, they're actually doing. So the Democrats are saying that the Republicans are gerrymandering, but actually by this vote, they're trying to gerrymander Virginia.
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C
I gotta say, those yes voters sounded exactly like California Democrats to me. That is exactly the feedback I got. No one was clicking their heels so excited to vote for a partisan gerrymander. Remember, these states passed independent redistricting reforms. That was what voters wanted. And having to vote against it. You know, some people probably having to vote for it and then against it in this case is an awkward position. Voters at writ large do not like partisan gerrymandering, but they're being sort of forced in this position for a myriad of reasons. The Supreme Court allowing states to do this and saying that it's okay, and politicians like Donald Trump saying, like, hey, if I can, I will.
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D
When voters, as recently as 2020, were voting on getting rid of the legislature, doing redistricting and going to a bipartisan commission. I think it was like 66% of the vote. So there's a recent landslide victory for that movement.
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B
All right. Well, we're going to take a quick break and we will have more in a moment.
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B
And we're back. And I'm a Virginia resident. People have been knocking on my door. I have a whole stack of mail here that includes yes and no and various arguments and even what appears to be a fake local newspaper arguing for the ballot measure. Jad, you have done some reporting on the tactics both by the pro and anti redistricting campaigns. Can you tell us what you've seen?
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D
Yeah. So the no campaign. So as a reminder, this is the anti redistricting campaign. They have put out a lot of mailers, which probably are some of the ones that you've got in your hand there. But a lot of people are saying they're confusing.
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B
Yeah, I'm looking at the headlines on these. Bipartisan leaders agree rigging districts is wrong. If you had to guess who that was. And it's got blue and red. And then another one says vote yes to level the playing field in the midterms. One of those is a yes and one of those is a no. And it's all pretty muddy.
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D
I mean, one of the ones that was the most sort of like took me aback, the most part, is this political action committee that's associated with the no campaign has sent out flyers that include images of the KKK and police chasing like little black girls during the civil rights movement. And it says, just like Jim Crow, they want to silence your voice. Whereas you have a lot of the black Democratic establishment here in Virginia, most of the leadership in the legislature is black or are pushing for a yes vote.
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C
I mean, gerrymandering is confusing to most voters. I don't think any, like, most voters that you talk to understand how this works. This is where political messaging is ripe for creating even more confusion. And especially because so much money is being spent in this. I mean, especially compared to, like, we were talking about California. In California, there was not this, like, you know, barrage of. Of ads that voters had to sift through because, I mean, a lot of it is. Polling was looking like, there's no need to fight here. There's. This is going to be an easy one for Democrats. Obviously, that's not the case in Virginia. The other side is looking like, hey, this is a place where we could persuade voters. But it's a complicated issue. It's like a very technical process. And you know, how you message this is like, it's kind of difficult. I mean, you're explaining a ballot measure to override a technical thing that voters had to weigh in on years ago. So I'm not surprised that a bunch of money being spent is creating a lot more confusion.
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D
You even have the part of this where people. Voters don't necessarily know if they're going to be redistricted or not, because you can see the PDF of the map, but you can't zoom into basically the census block sort of level like the reporters or political wonks would do. So that's another level of confusion or murkiness, opaqueness, whatever you want to call it. That's in the process, too.
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B
I mean, funny side note, my very local paper, where I live one week had a story that said our congressman would still represent us with the new maps. And then the next week they ran a correction and said, actually, we don't think our congressman would still represent us. I do want to talk some more about the ads, because it's also just people are being bombarded with television ads and they are, in fact, quoting the same people. The side supporting the measure has ads with none other than former President Barack Obama. And the opposition also has ads quoting things that Obama said in the past. You know, this really does represent a reversal of how Democrats have talked about gerrymandering in the past. I guess this is just where we are.
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D
Yeah, I think it's also just confusion is a really useful tactic for political campaigns. Depending on how, how you want to, to do that. And I think given that this election is in April, there's not a D or R next to the name. You have the complicated pieces of, you know, where am I going to get redistricted? Am I going to get redistricted in the first place? You know, it makes this election really ripe for that sort of confusion.
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C
I mean, Democrats are also kind of in a bind here, right? Like, of course, the more progressive elements of the party have been complaining about redistricting for decades now, you know, being a scourge on our democracy. But at the same time, the base of the party is saying, we need you guys to fight back. We feel like you're not doing enough. And this was a very blatant partisan power grab started by President Trump. And I don't know how the base would feel if Democrats did nothing, responded with literally nothing. And all these Republican states gerrymandered and got, I don't know, like upwards of 10 seats to favor Republicans. How the base would feel then it's a tough one. But, you know, also let me remind you, Republicans are pushing currently right now within the same year, sometimes within the same sentence. They're saying it is okay for some states to gerrymander, but we don't like it when the Democrats are doing it. So everyone is in a tough position here. They're having to, within a same conversation, pick both sides or within or within a decade taking two different positions on the same issue.
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D
A lot of Democrats here are really, you know, they also just want something to put the brakes on Trump. And if there's a Democrat controlled House that does that, you know, I think there's a lot of frustration in terms of the way that Democrats in the minority and the Senate have even been able to kind of put checks on the President.
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B
Ashley, you mentioned earlier that this whole mid decade redistricting battle could wrap up this month with Virginia's vote and then that special session in Florida. But does this end here or are we now talking about just never ending redistricting battles? You know, the census will come out and then maybe the mid decade. And like, does it ever stop?
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C
Well, it's hard to tell. But this did open the door for this to become a new reality, like a new thing that Americans have to deal with every couple of years whenever there's a tough midterm coming up for the party in power. You know, there also is a situation where states might redistrict earlier than we think. Again, because the Supreme Court has the voting rights act before it that there could be a ruling on that outcome which could prompt a bunch of states, particularly in the south, to redraw their districts. The Supreme Court, like I mentioned, has said this is okay. They said you can redistrict for partisan gain. And as of this moment, states cannot gerrymander along racial lines, meaning they can't take race into account when they redraw their maps. That could be pretty much over depending how the Supreme Court rules on this case before them right now. But yeah, it's an open question. It depends how this all shakes out. If Republicans get a little bit like if there is evidence that this helped them not lose as many seats as they were expecting. And by the way, Republicans are expecting to lose seats. That's why so many of them are retiring, who knows, they might draw the conclusion that this is worth it for us in the long run. And who knows, Democrats might feel the same way. They might say, like, look, this worked for Republicans in the past. And as I mentioned, there is not much to stop parties from doing this
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B
in the future except for the idea of real representation for voters who want to maybe want to know who their member of Congress is and maybe have a relationship with that person or people in their office. If there's constant change and districts are drawn to favor the parties, whichever party, then voters get less of a voice.
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C
Yeah. And you know, I had I've mentioned this before on the podcast, but the one of the results of this is there, there are fewer competitive seats heading into this this midterm, which means Congress is likely to be less representative of of the country for the next couple of years.
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B
Well, on that note, let's leave it there for today. Jad Khalil from VPN News, thank you for your reporting.
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A
Thank you.
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B
And before we go, the situation in Iran is changing quickly and we are keeping an eye on it. So hit the follow button wherever you get your podcasts and you won't miss a thing. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics.
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C
I'm Ashley Lopez. I also cover politics.
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B
And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.
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F
Support for NPR and the following message come from the Walton Family foundation, working to create access to opportunity for people and communities by tackling tough social and environmental problems. More Information is at WaltonFamilyFoundation.org Evergreen trees are Pacific Northwest icons in journalism. An evergreen story isn't tied to one news cycle. It goes deep and helps you understand the world. The Evergreen is also a podcast from OPB about the Northwest. I'm Jen Chavez listen to the Evergreen Podcast from OPB every Monday, part of the NPR Network.