The NPR Politics Podcast

Episode: What does President Trump plan to do with Venezuela’s oil?
Date: January 8, 2026
Hosts: Tamara Keith, Frank Ordonez, Camila Domonosky

Overview

This episode unpacks President Trump's recent claims about "controlling" Venezuelan oil and explores what he plans to do with it. The discussion dives into the political motivations, market implications, the geopolitical underpinnings of U.S. involvement, and the realities of reviving Venezuela's battered oil industry. The hosts analyze whether the plan is feasible and what it really means for the U.S., Venezuela, and the global oil market.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump's "Big Oil" Announcement: The Basics [01:02–02:45]

• Trump's Claim: President Trump announced on social media that the U.S. would "control and sell" 30 to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil.
• What Oil is This?
  • This is oil that Venezuela has produced but could not export due to U.S. sanctions and naval blockades.
  • It's not new or increased production; it's oil stuck in storage because of export restrictions.
  • "So, when the president talks about these 30 to 50 million barrels...that's what they're talking about. This oil that couldn't leave the country… it's not new oil." (Camila Domonosky, [01:27])

How Much Oil Is That, Actually? [02:45–03:38]

• It's well over a month of Venezuela's production but only a few days of U.S. consumption.
• Value exceeds $1 billion, even at a discount.
• Normally, much of this oil would be sold (often to China) at a steep discount to evade sanctions.

2. Trump's Goals: Political or Practical? [03:38–05:31]

• Trump's message is about returning "stolen oil" and reinforcing the energy dominance narrative.
• "I think this is more of a message to Americans: Look, this was not just foreign intervention. This was me trying to recapture, in his words, kind of U.S. stolen oil and bring it back to the United States." (Frank Ordonez, [03:49])
• Roots stretch back to Venezuelan nationalization of oil (Chavez era), where U.S. oil companies were kicked out.

3. Oil Market Impacts [05:31–06:40]

• The global market is currently over-supplied; more oil will likely lower prices marginally.
• Venezuelan heavy crude fits well with U.S. refinery capabilities.
• This move is largely a redirection from China to the U.S., not a game-changer for world oil supply.

4. The Big Money Question: Who Controls the Proceeds? [06:40–08:10]

• Trump claims the U.S. will control the revenue to "help Venezuelans and U.S. interests."
• Congressional pushback—Democrats accuse Trump of seeking a "personal slush fund." ("This is kind of money that's supposed to go into the US Treasury. Trump is essentially saying that he is going to handle this money." – Frank Ordonez, [06:47])
• The Venezuelan state oil company (PDVSA) frames it as a regular sale, "negotiating" with the U.S.—major uncertainty remains.

5. Trump's Longstanding "Keep the Oil" Mantra [08:10–10:13]

• Montage of Trump repeatedly urging the U.S. to "keep the oil," dating back to 2011.
• "Remember, I used to say in the old days, don’t go in Iraq, but if you go in, keep the oil. We didn’t keep the oil. So stupid." (Donald Trump, [08:21])
• This is a core part of his domestic and foreign policy pitch—energy dominance equals cheaper gas, economic relief.
• With midterms coming, tying oil policy to affordability and U.S. prosperity is central.

6. Geopolitical Dimensions: U.S. vs. China, Russia, Iran [10:29–11:27]

• Trump aims to push China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba out of Venezuela as part of broader Western Hemisphere dominance.
• After the capture of Maduro, Trump declared U.S. dominance in the region "will never be questioned again."

7. Opening Venezuela for U.S. Oil Companies: Vision vs. Reality [11:27–14:33]

• Trump claims U.S. companies are eager to rebuild Venezuelan oil industry—asserts this will finance infrastructure and prosperity.
• Caution from Industry:
  • Industry is wary due to previous expropriation, poor infrastructure, low global oil prices.
  • "The break-even price...in Venezuela right now is more like $80." (Camila Domonosky, [13:37])
  • U.S. president wants low oil prices; companies need high prices to justify investment; big disconnect.

8. Congressional Pushback & War Powers [14:33–15:08]

• After news Trump spoke to oil companies before lawmakers, Senate pushes a War Powers resolution to restrict future action in Venezuela—a symbolic but significant rebuke.

9. Timeline & Feasibility of Reviving Venezuela's Oil [15:11–16:37]

• Trump says full production restoration possible in 18 months.
• Experts say: a small increase is possible, but full restoration to peak levels "is more like a decade and many, many billions of dollars." (Camila Domonosky, [16:28])
• Oil companies need U.S. government assurances if they're to risk major capital.

10. Uncertainties and Open Questions [17:08–17:43]

• Governance in Venezuela is in flux post-Maduro; unclear who will ultimately run the industry.
• No U.S. boots on the ground—yet; lingering concerns about long-term U.S. commitment and political sustainability.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "This is more of a message to Americans...This was me trying to recapture, in his words, kind of US stolen oil and bring it back." —Frank Ordonez ([03:49])
• "It's one thing to redirect the barrels that Venezuela is still managing to make. It is a totally different proposition to talk about significantly increasing how much oil the country is making." —Camila Domonosky ([12:31])
• "President gives a lot of mixed signals...he says they're in this for the long haul...that they're not going to cut and run. At the same time, a lot of concerns about the costs..." —Frank Ordonez ([15:29])
• "A full restoration of Venezuelan production back to its heyday, I’m hearing that’s more like a decade and many, many billions of dollars." —Camila Domonosky ([16:28])
• "If that is true, by the way, that President Trump spoke, as he said before and after, to the oil companies, he will have actually spoken with oil companies before speaking with lawmakers, which is an incredible thought." —Frank Ordonez ([14:33])
• "American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again." —Donald Trump (as paraphrased by Frank Ordonez, [11:27])

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:02–02:45| Trump’s oil claim explained | | 02:45–03:38| How much oil? Economic context | | 03:38–05:31| Political motives; “stolen oil” narrative | | 05:31–06:40| Market impact analysis | | 06:40–08:10| Who gets the money? Congressional skepticism | | 08:10–10:13| Trump’s “keep the oil” worldview; energy politics | | 10:29–11:27| Geopolitical maneuvering in Venezuela | | 11:27–14:33| American oil companies’ prospects and industry realities | | 14:33–15:08| Congress moves on War Powers resolution | | 15:11–16:37| Timeline for boosting Venezuelan production; skepticism | | 17:08–17:43| Venezuelan governance uncertainty; future U.S. involvement |

Conclusion

The episode paints Trump’s Venezuela oil plan as a mix of political showmanship and long-term strategic ambition—replete with geopolitical power plays, domestic messaging, and promises of economic gain. On-the-ground realities, industry skepticism, market complexities, and political resistance at home all complicate the White House vision, making rapid transformation unlikely. The situation remains fluid, uncertain, and deeply intertwined with broader U.S. energy and foreign policy goals.