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Deepa Shivaram
When you walk into NPR headquarters, one of the first things you see is a big map of the country covered with little blue dots. Each dot represents a local public radio station. That's the NPR Network. I'm Catherine Marr, CEO of npr. With federal funding for public media eliminated, your network is under serious threat. Help us plan for the road ahead@donate.NPR.org hey, it's Deepa Shivaram. Are you that friend, the one who's constantly recommending podcast episodes to anyone who will Listen? Subscribe to NPR's Pod Club newsletter and nerd out with us. You'll get fresh podcast recommendations every week handpicked by the people that live for this stuff. Subscribe@npr.org podclub you can also find the link in the description for this episode. Okay, here's the show. Hi, this is Jen. I'm out on my front porch enjoying the sound of the thunderstorms rolling through and the rain falling. This podcast was recorded at 1:07pm on Friday, August 1, 2025. Things may have changed by the time you listen to this. Okay, Enjoy the show.
Domenico Montanaro
Wow. She could be one of those meditation.
Deepa Shivaram
App voices, I was gonna say. Or like, even just the. Like when you're like, alexa, play Sound of the Rain or something. That's what that sounds like.
Domenico Montanaro
Yeah. Take all of your pain and put it here.
Deepa Shivaram
Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover the White House.
Stephen Fowler
I'm Stephen Fowler. I cover politics.
Domenico Montanaro
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
Deepa Shivaram
Okay, so we're about six months into President Trump's second term and a little over a year away from the midterm elections. Crazy. So, so today we're asking the question, is there a MAGA without Donald Trump? So, Domenico, let's kick it off with you. Broadly speaking, what do you think the future of the Republican Party looks like without Trump?
Stephen Fowler
Whew.
Domenico Montanaro
It is gonna be really interesting, especially in 2028 when we think about the tension that happens, because I really think that politics has become so much about personality on both sides of the aisle, frankly. I mean, I think you could say that with former President Obama. Certainly is the case of this cult of personality with Donald Trump. And I put this question to Repub strategist Alex Conant about whether or not there would be a MAGA that continues without Donald Trump. There is a populist movement with or without Trump in the United States, but Trump has never really been able to transfer his political support to other candidates. So whether Maga or the populist movement continue to be successful after Trump, I think is really unclear. And I'm actually skeptical. And look, he's skeptical, he said, because Trump's political success hasn't really translated to other Republicans when he's not on the ballot. I mean, think about the midterms in 2018, big losses for Republicans, 2022, they didn't do as well as they wanted to. So it's going to be hard for someone else to easily pick up the mantle.
Deepa Shivaram
Well, let me ask you this then, because I think this is a really important question. We've had populist political leaders before. That's not a new thing. So what makes MAGA unique, not in.
Domenico Montanaro
Really recent American history, for politics, and, you know, largely what Trump is focused on is culture, this anti elitism, and he eschews a lot of political norms himself. You know, he mines a kind of cynicism in American politics and a grievance of white people, frankly, across the country, more than, you know, any recent American president has, you know, going back, you know, to Nixon, frankly, or beyond that, you know, that anti elitism, cynicism of the system, if you, you know, that allows him, with his base, to break precedent and ethical norms. It's not clear how others will really be able to do that with the kind of strong hand that he's been able to do that with. And he's putting a lot of that into action with a retribution campaign. I'm not sure anyone else in American politics, let alone the Republican Party, is quite capable of. So it's really more than just policy.
Deepa Shivaram
Yeah. Well, Stephen, let's bring you in here. And I don't know if there's an answer to this question, but how much of the coalition that elected Trump in 2024, this base that he's bu up, how much of that can exist without Trump at the helm?
Stephen Fowler
Well, there's always going to be some sort of fall off because after getting elected, there's two to four years of time in office and different priorities and policies. Things change, the world changes, life goes on. But the way that Trump built the 2024 coalition is by stacking together a number of disparate groups, both within the traditional Republican Party and Republican adjacent, that inherently don't get along with each other and have policy priorities that only exist because Trump is able to wrangle them all together. So much of the things that he's done in the first months back into office have involved taking stances and pushing policies and platforms that different parts of that coalition doesn't agree with, whether it's the one big beautiful bill or bombing Iran or so on and so forth. These are things that should and could be deal breakers for Republicans and this conservative coalition in the future. That people aren't going to be able to necessarily put that aside in the same way. I mean, everybody has had to come to the table and basically capitulate to whatever Trump wants. There's not really a negotiation or a compromise position. The compromise is you do what Trump says or else.
Deepa Shivaram
All right, then my follow up is, where do these groups go without maga?
Stephen Fowler
Well, that's something that's going to be the key to the future of the Republican Party. So much of the party's apparatus, from the local parties to the state parties, all the way up to the executive, legislative and judicial branch, have been centered around one person, and one person's sometimes shifting ideology. So there's going to be some sort of slippage, whether that's to the couch and not showing up in the midterms or in the next presidential election, to independent groups or third parties that might try to run in some places, or to the Democratic Party, who's at record low unpopularity right now, that may be able to pick up those pieces. It is all but guaranteed that the coalition that showed up in November 2024 is not going to be the same one that shows up in 2026 or 2028. But what that looks like is going to remain to be seen.
Deepa Shivaram
There have been a few recent issues that have divided parts of the MAGA movement. I'm thinking of, you know, the investigation into disgrace, convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. That was a big one. That sort of caused some fissures. And, of course, the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza. We recently had Marjorie Taylor Greene, the congresswoman, call it a genocide, which is really breaking with what President Trump has said. Domenico, these cracks that are kind of happening here, how permanent are they? How seriously do you take them?
Domenico Montanaro
Yeah, I'm skeptical of how permanent they are as far as hurting Trump because his approval ratings among Republicans are still very, very high. Even though you have polls that, you know, big percentages of Americans don't feel like they've gotten a lot of transparency on the Epstein case. For example, you'll hear from a lot of folks within MAGA that they're blaming someone like Pam Bondi, the attorney general, for not going through with, you know, releasing more information. And he still gets, you know, almost 90% approval rating from Republicans overall, even in the same polls that show that people think that there wasn't enough transparency or hasn't been enough transparency when it comes to Epstein. So it seems that the MAGA movement always finds finds a way to blame someone else, some advisor, something else. And there's a lot of psychology behind that, you know, on picking your guy and sticking with him and saying, you know, it's all these other people who are trying to influence him that are the problem.
Deepa Shivaram
So not really like a finger pointing at the president himself sort of situation.
Domenico Montanaro
Yeah, not quite yet.
Deepa Shivaram
All right, we're going to take a quick break and we'll be back in a moment.
Stephen Fowler
This summer on Planet Money Summer School, we're learning about political economy.
Domenico Montanaro
We're getting into the nitty gritty of.
Stephen Fowler
What government does with things like trade.
Domenico Montanaro
Taxes, immigration, and healthcare. So politics and economics, which are taught separately, they shouldn't be separated at all. I think you have to understand one to really appreciate the other. So what is the right amount of.
Stephen Fowler
Government in our lives?
Domenico Montanaro
Tune into Planet Money Summer School from npr wherever you get your podcasts.
Deepa Shivaram
If you're a robot, this might not be the show for you, but if you're a human with hopes, dreams, and bills to pay, the Life Kit podcast might be just what you need. Three times a week, Life Kit brings you a fresh set of solutions to help you tackle topics big and small, from how to save money on groceries to how to bring the house down at karaoke. You know, human stuff. Listen to the Life Kit podcast from npr. Presentado por me, Mariel Segarra. And we're back. We've been talking about the future of the MAGA movement, so we kind of need to get into next year's midterm elections on that. So, Stephen, what can we learn from past efforts by MAGA aligned candidates to win some of the competitive seats that you're looking at in 2026?
Stephen Fowler
Well, during the first Trump term and the midterm when Trump wasn't in power, there were some notable trends with the types of candidates he promoted. Namely, they didn't do so hot in places where they had to appeal beyond the Republican base. After the 2020 election defeat, there were efforts to primary Republicans that didn't say the election was stolen. Many of them were unsuccessful. And in the general election, where those election denying candidates did make it through, voters pretty roundly rejected them. And so this time around, there's not the cause of denying the 2020 election rallying people around, but you are seeing kind of the made in Trump's image candidate showing up in who is running for these seats I mean, the case in point, North Carolina Senate race. Michael Watley is the latest Republican candidate and probably the eventual nominee there. He's Trump's hand picked chair of the Republican National Committee and is completely 100% aligned with Donald Trump. And that's going to be the biggest, most closely watched, most expensive race in the country. On the Senate side, it's also important to note all of the people that aren't running in these races. In Georgia Senate race, popular Republican Governor Brian Kemp, not running. In New Hampshire, Chris Sununu not running. There are not really a lot of lanes for Republicans even popular with their constituency Republicans that aren't all in on the Trump train. So you're gonna see a true referendum on Trump's power and Trump's image in ways that maybe in the past there might be a little bit more daylight.
Deepa Shivaram
Interesting. Well, let's jump in on that because Domenico, one thing I've been wondering about. I mean, a lot of things have happened with Trump's agenda recently, right? All of these tariffs that he's rolling out, programs that in the big beautiful bill, his big domestic agenda, that was tax breaks, cuts to Medicaid that could really impact rural hospitals, that was signed back in July. And part of that conversation has been this question of will there be a backlash for Republicans in the midterms, even if Trump, like you're talking about his poll numbers and his support has been largely untouched?
Domenico Montanaro
Well, yeah. I mean, look, a lot of the things that he's tried to do, whether it's his tax and spending bill that he's gotten through these tariffs, he's not really getting very high marks for them. You know, the program Medicaid, which helps to get insurance for the elderly and disabled in this country and people who don't make enough money to be able to afford their own insurance, you know, it's a very popular program that affects a lot of people. And these cuts to Medicaid in that were very unpopular. Polling had found, you know, his economic handling numbers are not very good. And we know that that's how you get from his 46, 47% overall with the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 to almost 50% in 2024 by winning over some of these competitive voters, these persuadable voters who were unhappy with prices and inflation during the Biden era. And, you know, his popularity with his base, you know, is only going to go so far in helping Republicans in the midterm elections, especially when he's not on the ballot. And all those voters who weren't out there voting for Republicans previously, but voted for Donald Trump in all of these presidential elections. They need those voters to be at the polls, especially in competitive places when his numbers for some of these programs are not very high. You know, in fact, his popularity with his base is also gonna be key for whether or not this idea of Trumpism or MAGA is gonna be able to survive beyond Trump long term and fundamentally reshape the party. Here again is Republican strategist Alex Conant. I think in terms of relatively near term American politics, we could see Trump, Trump's influence lasting in the Oval Office beyond him, you know, at least for a few years. But, you know, long term. Is the Republican Party a populist party? Is the. Is the populist movement really a force that's electing a lot of politicians? You know, I'm skeptical because Trump has just not been able to really expand his political support beyond himself. So there's a latent populist movement clearly in the country when there isn't someone at the top who's pushing for those things. But we're going to see in 2028 if someone can pick up that mant.
Deepa Shivaram
Yeah, you know, there's one part of this that I also wanted to ask about, which is, you know, speaking of Trump being the reason that is bringing some of this base together, there have been like a little bit of a movement from voters of color. I'm thinking of Latino voters, specifically in the 2024 election, of Latino men, Asian men, like, moving closer to the Republican Party. Is there any indication that those groups will remain Republican voters or part of this MAGA movement even after Trump?
Domenico Montanaro
I think they're very much up for grabs. I don't think that they're a group that's necessarily moved totally toward Trump. I don't think they vote on identity in the way that Democrats have tried to appeal necessarily to some voting groups on identity. You know, and I think that Trump has been able to tap into something, especially with young male Latinos about, you know, what the culture should be in the country. And I think that there are a lot of people on the Republican side who are gonna be vying for the nomination in 2028 who are targeting those groups specifically, especially on all these podcasts and the quote unquote manosphere.
Deepa Shivaram
All right, well, speaking of 2028 for both of you, are there any potential Republican contenders that you're specifically tracking for the 2028 presidential election? Could Vice President J.D. vance be the future of MAGA?
Stephen Fowler
Well, I would say not necessarily. I would think a better analog for JD Vance would be Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris took a bit of a backseat to President Biden's policies and vision and wasn't as vocal on a lot of things out there and didn't want to get in front of Biden or say anything different. And much in the same way, J.D. vance has really been behind Trump's shadow. He hasn't really carved out a portfolio of policy issues that he's taking the lead on, other than appearing on a lot of conservative podcasts and kind of doing a lot of behind the scenes massaging of the this coalition. And so I think the things that he's doing to not overshadow Trump and to not do anything to have any daylight there could end up harming him when it's time to come and make the case to 2028 primary voters that he's going to pick up the aggressive, big, loud, forceful MAGA vision that Trump has. And another reason is because Trump's MAGA messaging, especially in this last campaign, is geared towards being not in power and towards getting this idea of, you know, the party in power is wronging the American people and doing things. And that's going to be a lot harder of a message to sell both to the general electorate and to the primary electorate when you have been in control in Washington for the past four years.
Domenico Montanaro
Yeah. And look, if J.D. vance is the Kamala Harris, then Secretary of State Marco Rubio might be the Pete Buttigieg of the Republican side because he's somebody who's obviously articulate, but he has kind of morphed himself as a supremely anti Trump person to be someone who is very close to Donald Trump now. And I think both of these guys are vying for influence, not just from Trump himself and trying not to get in his way not to, you know, make themselves a target of Trump's, but also with the MAGA movement, which Rubio has not always been the first person that MAGA has trusted or wanted to go to. But I think there's another name and there's a lot of other names, but I think there's another name that a lot of us can talk about, and that's Don Jr. Donald Trump Jr. As a potential heir. Because if you remember, there was a piece by the journalist McKay Coppins in the Atlantic in 2019 where it looked like he was saying that Don Jr. Quote, is emerging as Trump's natural successor. And that's because when you look at the campaign trail, a lot of senators want Don Jr. Out on the campaign trail. And I think there's going to be a lot of conversation around him about him, whether he's going to be somebody who decides to actually put himself into politics. He's not someone who has a traditional political profile. And he also has had some tension with his own dad. They're very different kinds of people. But he's very plugged in, in that young podcast bro environment in ways that J.D. vance is, too, someone who's a friend of his. So I think that on both sides of the aisle here, we're gonna see a really interesting competition for not only a vision future, but on the right, who's going to be the heir to Trump and maga?
Deepa Shivaram
Well, do we think that Trump will willingly give up the reins to his MAGA movement?
Domenico Montanaro
Someone's gonna win, obviously, and they're gonna be the new person. But I don't think Trump is gonna get out of the way through the primary process at all. I think that he has the potential to be a kingmaker, to pick the person. And that's why you're seeing all of these guys really try to stay on Trump's good side. Although none of them is Trump. I mean, unless they're Don Jr. Who is a Trump, but he's not his father. Donald Trump Senior.
Deepa Shivaram
Yeah. All right, we're gonna take a quick break, and when we get back, it's time for Can't Let It Go. This message comes from dsw. Where'd you get those shoes?
Domenico Montanaro
Easy.
Deepa Shivaram
They're from dsw because DSW has the exact right shoes for whatever you're into right now. You know, like the sneakers that make office hours feel like happy hour, the boots that turn grocery aisles into runways, and all the styles that show off the many sides of you, from daydreamer to multitasker and everything in between. Because you do it all in really great shoes. Find a shoe for every you at your DSW store or dsw.com this week on Consider this. Amid the Trump administration's overhaul of the Justice Department, a whistleblower who worked there for 15 years speaks to NPR about what he says is happening inside.
Domenico Montanaro
Judges say, where's the evidence? And we have no evidence because there is no evidence.
Deepa Shivaram
That's this Week on Consider this. Listen each weekday afternoon on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Domenico Montanaro
Fall in love with new music every Friday at All songs considered. That's NPR's music recommendation podcast.
Stephen Fowler
Fridays are where we spend our whole.
Domenico Montanaro
Show, sharing all the greatest new releases of the week.
Stephen Fowler
Make the Hunt for new music a.
Domenico Montanaro
Part of your life again. Tap into new Music Friday from All Songs Considered, available wherever you get your podcasts.
Stephen Fowler
The Fantastic Four are back again in a new movie, and it's an eye popping good time.
Domenico Montanaro
We've seen the story before, but this.
Stephen Fowler
Time the vibe is different. It's brighter, set in a retro future with flying cars. Plus, it stars Pedro Pascal and works for casual viewers and nerds alike. We'll tell you why on Pop Culture Happy Hour. Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Deepa Shivaram
And we're back. And it's time to end the show like we do every week with Can't Let It Go, the part of the show where we talk about the things from the week that we just can't let it go. I can't stop thinking about politics or otherwise. Stephen, let's kick it off with you.
Stephen Fowler
So, Deepa, I don't know if you know this, but I have never had coffee before in my entire life.
Domenico Montanaro
What?
Stephen Fowler
And I am a big fan of the Celsius energy drink. A big fan of Celsius. I know. And I have a two year old and somehow I'm upright thanks to Celsius. But my can't let it go is that some cans of the Celsius energy drink weren't actually Celsius. They were vodka seltzers.
Domenico Montanaro
Are you okay?
Stephen Fowler
High Noon recalled some vodka seltzers mislabeled as Celsius energy drinks. I did not consume any of them. I was on Morning Edition bright and early many times this week and I was a okay, I promise. But people somewhere somehow accidentally bought vodka seltzers thinking that they were energy drinks? Those two are not the same.
Deepa Shivaram
That's so funny. Wait, so like, was it a full switch? So like people buying the vodka seltzers were just getting Celsius and then the people. Was it a switch both ways?
Stephen Fowler
From our website, High Noon is recalling certain 12 packs of its vodka seltzers, which turned out to offer more than just a variety of fruit flavors. The company says some of them also contain cans of the cocktail that were mislabeled as Celsius energy drinks. An entirely different brand.
Domenico Montanaro
Well, I would tell you this, I have never had a Celsius. I don't intend to. Energy drinks are not exactly my thing. I do drink coffee, although I could see the appeal. I will say something must be going around because there was a pizza place in Wisconsin where they were putting oil on their pizza and it was laced with thc. So a little bit different kind of a pizza high, but I guess you could call it.
Deepa Shivaram
That's really wild. Steven, has this, like, made you decide that maybe the safer bet is just drinking coffee?
Stephen Fowler
No. It makes me want to go buy some more. Just kidding. No. I am still firmly in the coffee camp. It is high noon somewhere, but I am going to stick with my Celsius and just take a little sip first to see what kind of day I'm gonna have.
Deepa Shivaram
Oh, interesting. I respect it.
Stephen Fowler
Depot. What can't you let go this week? Other than potentially cans of Celtics High.
Deepa Shivaram
Noon, mine is the most iconic movie of my childhood, is coming out with the sequel, and it is not devil wears Prada 2, even though I am excited about that. And it is not Freaky Friday 2. It is, in fact, bend it like Beckham 2, announced this week. The same director who made the first one, Gurren Lurchada, said that in 2027, we are getting a sequel to Bend It Like Beckham, which was maybe the most influential movie I saw as a child and a movie that I could probably, quote, start to finish if you wanted me to do that.
Domenico Montanaro
I feel very old. That's all I will say. I think I was. Oh, God. I had graduated from college already when that movie came out. It was 2002. I believe it was 2002.
Deepa Shivaram
Yeah. Because this is gonna be the 25th. Yeah. 25th anniversary.
Domenico Montanaro
That is not, like, a movie of my childhood, which was coming to America. Thank you very much.
Deepa Shivaram
Well noted. Noted. But, yeah, I'm so pumped. Like, I feel like after that movie, I was like, oh, I'm gonna sign up for soccer. And, you know, I played soccer for a while, and now we're in this moment where women's soccer is just like, like, so blown up. And it's so fantastic how many people are following women's soccer these days and supporting women's soccer. And I just feel like that was a movie where, if you guys remember, like, there was a part in the scene where the characters are, like, talking about how crazy it is that, like, women get paid to play soccer at all in the US and it's just wild to see, like, how much the sport has come. And I feel like there's gonna be a lot of hype around the second one.
Domenico Montanaro
Yeah, that should be great. Especially how things have changed. I wonder if the movie will, you know, maintain. You know, like, sometimes you look back at some of these movies that were made in the early aughts, and you're like, ooh, that didn't translate well.
Deepa Shivaram
Yeah, I. Well, Look, I can confirm after several rewatches in recent history, I think it holds up. But we'll see how. We'll see how number two does. Domenico, what can you not let go of?
Domenico Montanaro
Well, Deepa, I want to ask you a question, actually, and it's not about your clique, but about a former clique, I believe, of yours. And I think that's one. What is your favorite fruit?
Deepa Shivaram
Oh, my gosh. Oh, my gosh. Yes. We were on a pod together while we talked about mangoes.
Domenico Montanaro
And I know someone who likes mangoes, maybe more than you do. And it's not my daughter, exactly, because she. She does love a good mango. But it is monkeys from Bali. I don't know if you follow this story in the Wall Street Journal, but you better have some pretty expensive stuff to get your stuff back and have some mangoes to give to these monkeys to trade, because apparently these monkeys are going to a temple in Bali and they are stealing sunglasses, iPhones, and they're not giving them back until people give them mangoes.
Deepa Shivaram
No way. Yeah, I think that's my spirit animal.
Domenico Montanaro
The Wall Street Journal did this story, and they have a really cool video of these very aggressive monkeys, and people either both scared and laughing at the same time as they. As they exchange traits.
Deepa Shivaram
They are. They can be scared. I have not been to Bali, but I. I have been to India. And the monkeys there, I mean, no fear. Truly. No fear. They will come right up to you. It's. It's pretty scary.
Domenico Montanaro
I'm amazing. They sound like children, though. You know, they shake you down for money in exchange for.
Deepa Shivaram
Honestly wild. I would love to see that video. All right, that's gonna be a wrap for today. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Our editor is Rachel Bay. Our producer is Bria Suggs. Thanks to Megan Pratt. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover the White House.
Stephen Fowler
I'm Stephen Fowler. I cover politics.
Domenico Montanaro
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
Deepa Shivaram
And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.
Domenico Montanaro
Federal funding for public media has been eliminated. That means decades of bipartisan support for public radio and television is ending. To be clear, NPR isn't going anywhere.
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You can make your gift@donate.NPR.org and thank you.
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There's a lot of news happening.
Domenico Montanaro
You want to understand it better, but.
Stephen Fowler
Let'S be honest, you don't want it.
Domenico Montanaro
To be your entire life either.
Stephen Fowler
Well, that's sort of like our show.
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The NPR Politics Podcast: "What Is MAGA Without Trump?"
Release Date: August 1, 2025
In this compelling episode of The NPR Politics Podcast, hosts Deepa Shivaram, Stephen Fowler, and Domenico Montanaro delve into a pivotal question facing American politics today: "What Is MAGA Without Trump?" As the nation navigates the complexities of President Trump's second term and approaches the midterm elections, the discussion offers a nuanced exploration of the future of the MAGA movement and the Republican Party in a post-Trump era.
The conversation kicks off with an examination of the Republican Party's trajectory in the absence of Donald Trump’s direct leadership. Domenico Montanaro references insights from Republican strategist Alex Conant, highlighting skepticism about the sustainability of the MAGA movement without Trump. He notes:
“Trump has never really been able to transfer his political support to other candidates. So whether MAGA or the populist movement continues to be successful after Trump, I think is really unclear.” (02:05)
Stephen Fowler adds that Trump’s influence has been central in uniting diverse and often conflicting factions within the Republican coalition, making it challenging for others to step into his role:
“Much of what he has done involves taking stances and pushing policies that different parts of that coalition don't agree with... The compromise is you do what Trump says or else.” (05:44)
Deepa Shivaram probes what sets MAGA apart from previous populist movements in American history. Domenico responds by emphasizing Trump's focus on cultural issues, anti-elitism, and a cynicism toward political norms, which have allowed him to energize a specific base uniquely:
“Trump mines a kind of cynicism in American politics and a grievance of white people, frankly, across the country... It's really more than just policy.” (03:22)
Stephen Fowler discusses the fragility of the current Republican coalition, which has been heavily reliant on Trump’s unifying presence. He anticipates a possible "slippage" in voter turnout and a fragmentation of the coalition without Trump:
“It's all but guaranteed that the coalition that showed up in November 2024 is not going to be the same one that shows up in 2026 or 2028.” (05:57)
Domenico adds that internal divisions have surfaced over issues like the Jeffrey Epstein investigation and the Gaza humanitarian crisis, questioning their long-term impact:
“Trump's approval ratings among Republicans are still very, very high... So it seems that the MAGA movement always finds a way to blame someone else.” (07:09)
The hosts turn their attention to the upcoming midterm elections, analyzing how the GOP might fare without Trump anchoring the movement. Stephen Fowler reflects on past trends where Trump-aligned candidates struggled in general elections when they needed to appeal beyond the base:
“The way Trump built the 2024 coalition is by stacking together a number of disparate groups... These voters need to be at the polls, especially in competitive places when his numbers for some of these programs are not very high.” (09:20)
Domenico anticipates that the lack of a unifying figure could lead to unpredictability in the midterms, with potential shifts toward independent groups or even the Democratic Party picking up disaffected voters.
Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election, the discussion explores possible successors to Trump within the Republican Party. Stephen Fowler expresses doubt about Vice President J.D. Vance emerging as a MAGA leader, comparing his role to that of Vice President Kamala Harris, who stayed largely behind President Biden's shadow:
“J.D. Vance has really been behind Trump's shadow... This could end up harming him when it's time to make the case to 2028 primary voters.” (15:02)
Domenico suggests that Donald Trump Jr. might be a more viable heir to Trump's MAGA legacy, given his active presence on the campaign trail and connections within the movement:
“Don Jr. is emerging as Trump's natural successor... there's going to be a lot of conversation around him.” (16:07)
The podcast also addresses the evolving dynamics of minority voters within the Republican base. Deepa Shivaram raises the question of whether Latino and Asian male voters, who have shown increasing support for the GOP, will remain aligned with MAGA post-Trump. Domenico notes that these groups are "very much up for grabs" and that future Republican candidates will likely target them to sustain the movement:
“Trump has been able to tap into something, especially with young male Latinos... targeting those groups specifically.” (14:48)
Domenico discusses the long-term prospects of Trumpism, expressing skepticism about the GOP's ability to maintain a populist identity without Trump's direct influence. He references the administration's unpopular policies, such as Medicaid cuts and tariffs, which might erode support among broader voter demographics:
“His economic handling numbers are not very good... His popularity with his base is only going to go so far in helping Republicans in the midterm elections.” (11:30)
The episode concludes with the hosts reflecting on the uncertain path ahead for the MAGA movement and the Republican Party. While Trump's direct influence remains formidable, the ability of other leaders to sustain and evolve the movement without him remains an open question, setting the stage for significant political shifts in forthcoming elections.
Notable Quotes:
Domenico Montanaro (02:05): “Trump has never really been able to transfer his political support to other candidates. So whether MAGA or the populist movement continues to be successful after Trump, I think is really unclear.”
Stephen Fowler (05:44): “The compromise is you do what Trump says or else.”
Domenico Montanaro (07:09): “Trump's approval ratings among Republicans are still very, very high... So it seems that the MAGA movement always finds a way to blame someone else.”
Stephen Fowler (09:20): “These voters need to be at the polls, especially in competitive places when his numbers for some of these programs are not very high.”
Domenico Montanaro (16:07): “Don Jr. is emerging as Trump's natural successor... there's going to be a lot of conversation around him.”
This episode provides an in-depth analysis of the potential transformations within the Republican Party and the MAGA movement as they contemplate a future without Donald Trump at their helm. The hosts effectively blend expert insights with strategic predictions, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of the political landscape's evolving dynamics.