The NPR Politics Podcast: "What Is MAGA Without Trump?"

Release Date: August 1, 2025

In this compelling episode of The NPR Politics Podcast, hosts Deepa Shivaram, Stephen Fowler, and Domenico Montanaro delve into a pivotal question facing American politics today: "What Is MAGA Without Trump?" As the nation navigates the complexities of President Trump's second term and approaches the midterm elections, the discussion offers a nuanced exploration of the future of the MAGA movement and the Republican Party in a post-Trump era.

1. The Future of the Republican Party Without Trump (01:45 - 06:40)

The conversation kicks off with an examination of the Republican Party's trajectory in the absence of Donald Trump’s direct leadership. Domenico Montanaro references insights from Republican strategist Alex Conant, highlighting skepticism about the sustainability of the MAGA movement without Trump. He notes:

“Trump has never really been able to transfer his political support to other candidates. So whether MAGA or the populist movement continues to be successful after Trump, I think is really unclear.” (02:05)

Stephen Fowler adds that Trump’s influence has been central in uniting diverse and often conflicting factions within the Republican coalition, making it challenging for others to step into his role:

“Much of what he has done involves taking stances and pushing policies that different parts of that coalition don't agree with... The compromise is you do what Trump says or else.” (05:44)

2. Uniqueness of MAGA Compared to Past Populist Movements (03:35 - 04:14)

Deepa Shivaram probes what sets MAGA apart from previous populist movements in American history. Domenico responds by emphasizing Trump's focus on cultural issues, anti-elitism, and a cynicism toward political norms, which have allowed him to energize a specific base uniquely:

“Trump mines a kind of cynicism in American politics and a grievance of white people, frankly, across the country... It's really more than just policy.” (03:22)

3. Stability and Potential Shifts in the GOP Coalition (04:28 - 08:10)

Stephen Fowler discusses the fragility of the current Republican coalition, which has been heavily reliant on Trump’s unifying presence. He anticipates a possible "slippage" in voter turnout and a fragmentation of the coalition without Trump:

“It's all but guaranteed that the coalition that showed up in November 2024 is not going to be the same one that shows up in 2026 or 2028.” (05:57)

Domenico adds that internal divisions have surfaced over issues like the Jeffrey Epstein investigation and the Gaza humanitarian crisis, questioning their long-term impact:

“Trump's approval ratings among Republicans are still very, very high... So it seems that the MAGA movement always finds a way to blame someone else.” (07:09)

4. Implications for the 2026 Midterm Elections (08:37 - 16:28)

The hosts turn their attention to the upcoming midterm elections, analyzing how the GOP might fare without Trump anchoring the movement. Stephen Fowler reflects on past trends where Trump-aligned candidates struggled in general elections when they needed to appeal beyond the base:

“The way Trump built the 2024 coalition is by stacking together a number of disparate groups... These voters need to be at the polls, especially in competitive places when his numbers for some of these programs are not very high.” (09:20)

Domenico anticipates that the lack of a unifying figure could lead to unpredictability in the midterms, with potential shifts toward independent groups or even the Democratic Party picking up disaffected voters.

5. Potential Republican Contenders for 2028 (14:12 - 18:45)

Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election, the discussion explores possible successors to Trump within the Republican Party. Stephen Fowler expresses doubt about Vice President J.D. Vance emerging as a MAGA leader, comparing his role to that of Vice President Kamala Harris, who stayed largely behind President Biden's shadow:

“J.D. Vance has really been behind Trump's shadow... This could end up harming him when it's time to make the case to 2028 primary voters.” (15:02)

Domenico suggests that Donald Trump Jr. might be a more viable heir to Trump's MAGA legacy, given his active presence on the campaign trail and connections within the movement:

“Don Jr. is emerging as Trump's natural successor... there's going to be a lot of conversation around him.” (16:07)

6. Influence of Minority Voters on the Republican Future (13:45 - 14:48)

The podcast also addresses the evolving dynamics of minority voters within the Republican base. Deepa Shivaram raises the question of whether Latino and Asian male voters, who have shown increasing support for the GOP, will remain aligned with MAGA post-Trump. Domenico notes that these groups are "very much up for grabs" and that future Republican candidates will likely target them to sustain the movement:

“Trump has been able to tap into something, especially with young male Latinos... targeting those groups specifically.” (14:48)

7. Long-Term Viability of Trumpism (11:30 - 13:45)

Domenico discusses the long-term prospects of Trumpism, expressing skepticism about the GOP's ability to maintain a populist identity without Trump's direct influence. He references the administration's unpopular policies, such as Medicaid cuts and tariffs, which might erode support among broader voter demographics:

“His economic handling numbers are not very good... His popularity with his base is only going to go so far in helping Republicans in the midterm elections.” (11:30)

8. Concluding Insights

The episode concludes with the hosts reflecting on the uncertain path ahead for the MAGA movement and the Republican Party. While Trump's direct influence remains formidable, the ability of other leaders to sustain and evolve the movement without him remains an open question, setting the stage for significant political shifts in forthcoming elections.

Notable Quotes:

• Domenico Montanaro (02:05): “Trump has never really been able to transfer his political support to other candidates. So whether MAGA or the populist movement continues to be successful after Trump, I think is really unclear.”

• Stephen Fowler (05:44): “The compromise is you do what Trump says or else.”

• Domenico Montanaro (07:09): “Trump's approval ratings among Republicans are still very, very high... So it seems that the MAGA movement always finds a way to blame someone else.”

• Stephen Fowler (09:20): “These voters need to be at the polls, especially in competitive places when his numbers for some of these programs are not very high.”

• Domenico Montanaro (16:07): “Don Jr. is emerging as Trump's natural successor... there's going to be a lot of conversation around him.”

This episode provides an in-depth analysis of the potential transformations within the Republican Party and the MAGA movement as they contemplate a future without Donald Trump at their helm. The hosts effectively blend expert insights with strategic predictions, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of the political landscape's evolving dynamics.