The NPR Politics Podcast

Episode: What to Watch in the Texas Senate Race

Date: February 10, 2026
Host: Myles Parks
Guests: Ashley Lopez (NPR Politics), Andrew Schneider (Houston Public Media)

Overview

This episode provides an in-depth look at the upcoming Texas Senate race as early voting for the primaries approaches. The hosts analyze the unusually competitive Republican primary, the dynamics among the leading candidates, and the factors that could influence Democratic prospects in the general election. They also touch on how Texas's unique primary structure and recent redistricting changes may affect both Senate and House races.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Republican Senate Primary: An Unusually Tight Race

Incumbent & Challengers

• John Cornyn: In office 20+ years, viewed as a "George W. Bush Republican"—more old-school and less aligned with Trump-branded populism.
• Ken Paxton: Longtime Texas Attorney General, known for legal and personal controversies, but has maintained robust support among Republican voters.
• Wesley Hunt: Two-term Houston-area Congressman, 44, Army veteran, pitching himself as the future-oriented, younger conservative.

Old Guard vs. MAGA

• Cornyn's forced to defend his Trump-aligned voting record as his opponents paint him as insufficiently conservative.
• Paxton markets himself as the Trumpiest candidate, while Hunt stresses generational change.
• Andrew Schneider observes:

  “Both of them have been making the arguments that they are conservatives in this race and that Cornyn is out of step with the party and the country.” (00:39)

Paxton's Scandals—A Liability or Not?

• Paxton's longstanding legal troubles and public divorce are in the spotlight, yet don’t seem to damage his primary support.
• As Ashley Lopez notes:

  “At a time when Cornyn was first running for that Senate seat, it would be hard to imagine someone with this much legal baggage would be a viable candidate.” (03:16)

• The Trump era has shifted political norms; legal trouble is less disqualifying among Republican primary voters.

Key Issues

• Immigration and border security are front-and-center, with Cornyn touting bipartisan funding wins and Paxton emphasizing hardline enforcement.
• Party alignment with Trump is the central “litmus test.”
• Trump has not endorsed any candidate, possibly to avoid picking a losing side, per Schneider:

  “Trump can basically just sit back and enjoy the win from his perspective.” (06:11)

Primary Structure and Implications

• Texas's open primary allows crossover voting but, per Lopez, this rarely sways outcomes:

  “Primary voters tend to be base voters. These are more ideologically aligned voters with whatever party they're voting for.” (07:58)

• With three main candidates, a runoff is likely unless one wins over 50%—analysts give Paxton the edge in such a scenario.

Wesley Hunt's Role

• Youngest candidate, campaigns as a Trump loyalist with a focus on next-generation leadership.
• Despite his messaging, trails badly in polling.

2. The Democratic Senate Primary: Firebrand vs. Consensualist

The Candidates

• Jasmine Crockett: Dallas congresswoman, attorney, strong progressive tone, vocal Trump critic; seeks to boost nonvoter turnout, inspired by Stacey Abrams's Georgia efforts.
• James Talarico: Austin state rep, seminary grad, known for holding his seat in a pro-Trump district; focuses on winning moderates and independents.

Stylistic Divides

• Crockett is the bold, combative candidate; Talarico takes a more conciliatory, faith-driven approach.
• The race reflects a fundamental debate among Democrats about strategy in red Texas.
• Lopez frames the stakes:

  <span style="color: grey;">“This particular primary is going to be very interesting to watch, to see what voters sort of signal to the party.” (13:07)</span>

Electability Debate

• The Houston Chronicle endorses Talarico for cross-party appeal but, Schneider suggests,

  “I think it's probably a mix of both. … That's something that has typically been very popular with voters that have tended to go for Republicans in general and President Trump in particular.” (14:13)

The Challenge for Democrats

• No Democrat has won a Texas Senate seat since 1988; the last Democratic holder of this seat was Lyndon Johnson in 1960.
• Demographics aren’t destiny—recent trends show some Latino voters shifting Republican.
• Lopez cautions:

  “I covered Texas politics a long time, so I know better to say, like, oh, you know, this is like the best shot Democrats ever had.” (16:36)

• Paxton winning the Republican primary may make the Senate race more competitive due to his vulnerabilities.

3. Policy Flashpoints: Immigration, ICE, and Economic Issues

Democrats on Immigration & ICE

• In debates, both Crockett and Talarico advocate for dramatic ICE reform or abolition.
• Talarico pledges to defund ICE; Crockett has voted against DHS funding.
• Both support holding ICE accountable and seek to impeach the current Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.
• Schneider recounts the debate focus:

  “Both the candidates came out in favor of dramatic reform of, if not abolition of ICE.” (17:41)

Republicans and Border Security

• Cornyn and Paxton both highlight credentials on border security; for base voters, it’s a defining issue.

Economic Populism

• Talarico leverages economic populist messaging, championing higher taxes on billionaires and greater economic justice to appeal to swing voters.
• Affordability and cost of living could erode Republican support among Texas Hispanics, especially post-redistricting.

4. Redistricting, the House, and Voting Trends

Texas Redrawn

• State has redistricted to try to secure more Republican House seats.
• Republicans bank on strong Hispanic support, but new polling shows this support is softening, especially given immigration policies and economic unease.
• Schneider notes:

  “Affordability is another major issue on the Democratic side, and it's one that could potentially lure crossover votes. … the result could be that the GOP will pick up fewer seats in Texas than expected.” (19:36)

Voter Turnout as the X Factor

• Texas is a chronically low-voting state; turnout is hard to predict and could prove decisive, especially as early voting opens soon.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Paxton’s Durability:
  “He has had to weather through a lot of allegations and court cases, but he has seemed to come out of it fairly unscathed. For now, which is what I think has prompted him to seek higher office.”
  —Ashley Lopez (01:54)

• On Changing Republican Norms:
  “Republican voters writ large now have a little bit more of a, I don’t know, ability to look past legal issues and scandal like alleged affairs. ... Maybe the signal ... is that it doesn’t matter as much as other things.”
  —Ashley Lopez (03:16)

• On Texan Democrats’ Eternal Optimism:
  “I’ve been calling it the Beto O’Rourke syndrome, where it’s just like, Democrats are so sure that they’re gonna make it competitive this time around.”
  —Myles Parks (15:27)

• On Shifting Latino Support:
  “That assumption may be flawed. Most polling shows Texas Hispanic support for Trump has deteriorated over the past year. That’s in part because of his hardline immigration enforcement policies, but it’s also because of stubborn high costs of living.”
  —Andrew Schneider (19:36)

Key Timestamps

• 00:18 – Kickoff: Texas Senate race explained
• 00:39 – Schneider lays out the Republican field
• 01:54 – Lopez on Ken Paxton’s legal/personal baggage
• 04:17 – Cornyn’s campaign attacks on Paxton
• 06:11 – The impact (or lack thereof) of a Trump endorsement
• 07:18 – Texas open primaries and the potential for cross-party voting
• 08:28 – Likelihood of a runoff, and advantage for Paxton
• 09:26 – Wesley Hunt’s case for generational change
• 12:15 – Introduction of Democratic candidates
• 13:07 – Lopez on the stylistic contrasts in the Democratic primary
• 14:13 – Analyzing Talarico’s electability
• 15:50 – The myth that shifting demographics guarantee Democratic gains
• 17:41 – Democratic candidates’ positions on ICE and immigration
• 19:36 – Effects of redistricting and Latino voter trends on the House races

Conclusion

This episode of The NPR Politics Podcast lays out the high stakes and shifting ground in the Texas Senate primaries, focusing on the Republican civil war between establishment and MAGA forces, the Democratic strategic divide, and the evolving political and demographic landscape in Texas. With early voting opening soon and open primaries setting the stage for unpredictable outcomes, Texas remains a bellwether state for national political trends in 2026.