Why Wisconsin's Supreme Court Election Matters Nationally

Summary

Summary of "Why Wisconsin's Supreme Court Election Matters Nationally" – NPR Politics Podcast

Podcast Information:

• Title: The NPR Politics Podcast
• Host/Author: NPR
• Episode: Why Wisconsin's Supreme Court Election Matters Nationally
• Release Date: March 19, 2025

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Introduction

In the March 19, 2025 episode of The NPR Politics Podcast, hosts Tamara Keith and Domenico Montanaro delve into the significance of the upcoming Wisconsin Supreme Court election scheduled for April 1. Joined by Anya Van Wagtendonk from Wisconsin Public Radio, the discussion highlights the race's implications not only for Wisconsin but also for the national political landscape.

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The Candidates and Ideological Stakes

Candidates Overview

Anya Van Wagtendonk introduces the two primary candidates vying for the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat:

• Brad Schimmel (Conservative):

  • Current position: Judge in Waukesha County
  • Background: Former Republican Attorney General and District Attorney

• Susan Crawford (Liberal):

  • Current position: Judge in Dane County (Madison)
  • Background: Former employee of Democratic Attorney General and Governor; private practice experience with clients like Planned Parenthood

Key Insight: Domenico Montanaro emphasizes, "they really do represent kind of the two sides of the ideological spectrum" (01:31).

Impact on Court Composition

With the court currently holding a 4-3 liberal majority and one liberal justice retiring, the election outcome will determine whether the court leans more liberal or conservative. This balance is crucial for future decisions on contentious issues such as abortion and labor rights.

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Money and Influence in the Race

Record-Breaking Expenditures

The Wisconsin Supreme Court race has become the most expensive judicial election in the state's history, with expenditures surpassing previous records. As of last week, approximately $60 million has been invested, with projections reaching up to $100 million by election day (04:31).

Major Donors and Backers

• Brad Schimmel:

  • Backed by Elon Musk, who has contributed over $11 million.
  • Supported by various conservative groups.

• Susan Crawford:

  • Supported by the Democratic Party, George Soros, and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker.
  • Funds come from national parties and mega donors advocating for abortion rights and other liberal causes.

Notable Quote: Domenico Montanaro states, "What does it mean to get these big donations? Will it sway their decisions...?" (05:51).

Concerns Over Donor Influence

Both candidates accuse each other of partisanship despite the race being officially nonpartisan. For instance, Crawford and her supporters allege that Musk aims to "buy a judge on the Supreme Court in order to win a suit that will help his business" (05:51).

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National Implications

Proxy for National Sentiment

Tamara Keith highlights that the Wisconsin Supreme Court election serves as an early indicator of the national political climate, especially ahead of the 2028 elections. The race reflects broader frustrations and divisions, particularly regarding former President Trump's influence and Elon Musk's increasing role in politics.

Key Points:

• Swing State Dynamics: Wisconsin's status as a swing state means the election results could signal national trends.
• Judicial Impact: Decisions on election conduct, congressional districting, and collective bargaining in Wisconsin can have national reverberations.

Voter Engagement and Party Enthusiasm

Tamara Keith discusses the election as a "temperature check of the activism within the Democratic base," especially in light of recent polls showing Democratic favorability at historic lows (e.g., 29% in CNN's poll) (07:47). The ability of Democrats to mobilize voters in a typically lower-turnout, off-year election will be crucial.

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The Role of Elon Musk

Musk's Increasing Political Involvement

Elon Musk's significant financial contribution to Brad Schimmel's campaign, along with his broader political ambitions, marks a new chapter in his involvement in politics. Tamara Keith notes, "He donated something like a quarter billion dollars to Donald Trump's campaign efforts" and is now actively shaping judicial races (10:57).

Notable Quote: Musk's favorability rating stands at 39%, indicating mixed public perception (11:36).

Future Political Engagements

The podcast discusses whether Musk views his involvement in the Wisconsin race as a one-time event or the beginning of a more sustained political influence. The substantial funds he invests suggest a potential for ongoing political activity.

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Voter Sentiment and Nationalization of Politics

National Issues at the Forefront

Participants observe that voters in Wisconsin are increasingly considering national issues when casting their ballots in state elections. This trend underscores the nationalization of politics, where local races are influenced by broader national debates and figures.

Key Insight: Domenico Montanaro remarks, "All politics in many ways has become national" (09:57).

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Conclusion

The Wisconsin Supreme Court election is not just a state-level judicial race but a pivotal event with significant national implications. The massive financial investments, ideological battles, and involvement of high-profile figures like Elon Musk highlight the race's importance in shaping both Wisconsin's judicial landscape and reflecting broader national political currents. As the election approaches, the outcomes will offer valuable insights into party dynamics, voter engagement, and the evolving role of money in politics.

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Notable Quotes:

• "They really do represent kind of the two sides of the ideological spectrum." — Domenico Montanaro (01:31)
• "What does it mean to get these big donations? Will it sway their decisions...?" — Domenico Montanaro (05:51)
• "He donated something like a quarter billion dollars to Donald Trump's campaign efforts..." — Tamara Keith (10:57)
• "All politics in many ways has become national." — Domenico Montanaro (09:57)

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Timestamps:

• 01:31
• 05:51
• 07:47
• 09:57
• 10:57
• 11:36

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This summary provides an overview of the key discussions and insights from the NPR Politics Podcast episode on Wisconsin's Supreme Court election, capturing the essential elements for listeners and non-listeners alike.

Transcript

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[Toby]

Hi, this is Toby from Western North Carolina. I'm currently in Ansan, South Korea, where I'm just about to start the first day of my last semester of my master's program at Hanyang University. This program was recorded at 1:08pm on Wednesday, March 19. Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I will be one step closer to graduation. All right, here's the show. Early Congratulations there.

[Tamara Keith]

I do love that people like to share their accomplishments on our podcast, like as if we're like post secret or.

[Toby]

Something, you know, Makes me feel very unaccomplished all the time. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

[Tamara Keith]

I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

[Toby]

And Anya Van Wagtendonk of Wisconsin Public Radio is with us from Madison. Hi, Anya.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Hey.

[Toby]

Today on the show, we are looking at Wisconsin's upcoming Supreme court election on April 1, which is turning into a very expensive fight over the balance of power on the state's high court. And, and Anya, we are talking about a state supreme court race, but the stakes are high. There are two candidates. Tell us about them and why this race matters for the court's composition.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah. So there's essentially they're representing both ends of the ideological spectrum. There's Brad Schimmel, who is the conservative candidate. He's currently a judge in Waukesha county, which is a suburb of Milwaukee, former Republican attorney general, and before that he was a DA. And then there's Susan Crawford, who is the liberal candidate. She's a judge in Dane County. That's where the capital city of Madison is. She used to work for a Democratic attorney general and a Democratic governor, and she's also worked in private practice for clients including Planned Parenthood. And so they really do represent kind of the two sides of the ideological spectrum in that way. It's a nonpartisan race, but they're backed by the political parties and they're running to determine the ideological majority on the court. It's currently a 4:3 liberal majority. A liberal justice is retiring. And so whoever wins decides does the court lean liberal or conservative? And then they'll be deciding upcoming cases on issues like abortion and labor rights. And so whoever wins this race could essentially determine which way cases like that go.

[Toby]

It is sort of a remarkable thing that we are talking about a judicial race, but we are definitely talking about ideology. Political ideology.

[Domenico Montanaro]

100%. Yeah. And this has been. It's kind of become the theme of Wisconsin judicial elections that, again, even though they're nonpartisan, there's a lot of signaling of which way you'll kind of lean as a justice.

[Toby]

Is this race being fought on local, state issues like the ones you mentioned, or unnational ones, like, what are the big areas that they're talking about?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah, it's been really interesting. You know, abortion is definitely a central theme of the race, which I think we've seen a lot of in judicial races here and elsewhere in the country over the last couple of years since Roe versus Wade was overturned. These two candidates are both clearly on different sides of that issue. But when you turn on your TV, or in my case, you know, YouTube, many of the ads are about crime, which is almost more a local judge issue than a state supreme court issue. And so that's been really surprising. And then both candidates have also just been really going after the other for being too partisan. Like, both are kind of saying, I'm the measured, objective jurist and my opponent is a partisan, even though they are both entirely propped up by millions of dollars in donations from, like I said, the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, and then many partisan interest groups, including national political parties and national mega donors.

[Tamara Keith]

Yeah. And this is one of those races that people are watching nationally, number one, because there's no other race going on right now. And this is the first opportunity for Democrats and liberals to kind of register their frustration with Trump. But also, what's become a big issue in this race, Elon Musk and his emergence, you know, in leading doge, the Department of Government Efficiency, and the millions of dollars he's pouring into this race, as well as millions of dollars that are coming from outside on the left that are really kind of putting Musk in the spotlight and raises a lot of questions.

[Toby]

Yeah, Anya, why don't you put some dollars and cents on that, though? I know it is a rapidly changing landscape because more money just keeps pouring in.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah. What I can say is there is so much money being spent in this race. As of last week, the race broke records last set here in Wisconsin two years ago. So about $60 million, we think, so far, have been spent, but there are new estimates that up to $100 million will have been spent by the time this is all said and done. So that's just really cr. A springtime judicial race, as Domenico just said. And lots of big donations are coming from Those outside groups. So Elon Musk, as we just mentioned, is backing Schimmel. He's so far spent more than $11 million. It's quite notable. You see other conservative groups backing Schimmel as well. And then on Crawford side, you're seeing millions spent through the Democratic Party and big donations from people like George Soros and Illinois Governor J.B. pritzker. And that's been another point of contention in this race is what does it mean to get these big donations? Will it sway their decisions on, especially if donors end up filing lawsuits or being involved in lawsuits? For example, Elon Musk and Tesla has filed a lawsuit here to get to open Tesla dealerships. It's a wonky state law kind of situation. So Crawford and her supporters have argued that Musk is basically trying to buy a judge on the Supreme Court in order to win a suit that will help his business. And Schimmel and his backers, of course, have made similar arguments about Crawford support from the Democratic Party and especially groups that support abortion access.

[Toby]

Somebody sent me some of the literature that's being distributed by Elon Musk's group for Schimmel, and I. You know, there's a picture of Donald Trump on it, and it alludes to Trump's battle with judges to try to get his agenda through, saying that, you know, Schimmel will be good for Trump's agenda. It's sort of a remarkable thing.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah. And that's kind of one of the open questions in this race is whether Trump will endorse Schimmel and to what extent this would be a continuation of the Trump election of November, or whether this is an opportunity, opportunity for Democrats or liberals to kind of show what they are doing in response to the Trump victory.

[Tamara Keith]

And remember, you know, Wisconsin is a swing state. I mean, 2028's pretty far away. But, you know, the Supreme Court in a state, you know, can make decisions on things like how elections are conducted, how congressional districts are drawn. Of course, there are more local things like collective bargaining that have been at stake in Wisconsin as well. So a lot of issues that we could see, you know, fought over not just statewide, but have importance nationally.

[Toby]

All right, let's take a quick break, and we'll have more in a moment.

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[Toby]

And we're back. And Domenico, this is a state election, but it is the first one since the presidential election last November. So does this become like a proxy referendum for how people are feeling about Democrats and Republicans? Who's energized, who's not, you know, even though the two candidates are officially nonpartisan?

[Tamara Keith]

Well, I mean, you know, we say this every time that there's a special election or a local election at this level, you know, in and here. But, you know, you don't want to overread the potential results from these kinds of elections. But they are an indicator of the activism on either side. Right. I mean, in the era of Obama when there were special elections and Republicans did very well, it certainly told us that the energy and enthusiasm was on Republican side. A lot of special elections during the Trump years, we saw Democrats do well, and Democrats certainly did well in midterms as well. It doesn't always shake out that way. And there are plenty of examples that you could find for that. But this is, you know, the first, like you said, temperature check of the activism within the Democratic base. And there's been so many questions right now about the Democratic base, whether or not they're enthused with the party. You know, we've seen a raft of polling just in the past week that shows Democratic favorability ratings at all time lows, at historic lows. I mean, 29% in CNN's poll, 27% in NBC's poll. And that has to do with Democratic respondents. So this is going to be a test, not just of money. And there's plenty of it to go around in this race whether or not Democrats can get people out to the polls in an off year in a lower turnout election, which could be an indicator for how well they do or not in 2026.

[Toby]

And Anya, there have been surrogates going into Wisconsin campaigning. There was Donald Trump Jr. And Charlie Kirk. Tim Walls, the Minnesota governor and VP candidate from the last cycle, was there just yesterday.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah. And you know, I think Wisconsinites get campaigned to so much. Obviously, last year's election was just kind of nonstop coming through Wisconsin. And so I also have this question of whether voters are revved up, as Domenico asked, or whether they're kind of exhausted and worn down. You know, I work out of the state capitol and we're used to protests coming through kind of all the time. But the protests have also been a little bit muted over the last little while. And so I'll be really curious to see whether that translates to even though $100 million might get spent, does that translate to anything interesting in terms of turnout, or will it end up just being an April election?

[Tamara Keith]

And you're seeing a lot of voters, frankly, when they're going to the polls here. And Anya, I don't know if you're seeing this too, but I've certainly read a lot of accounts of people sort of talking about national issues in why they're casting their ballot. And that's really a fascinating thing about how all politics in many ways has become national.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Absolutely. Especially again in swing state Wisconsin, which I think often sees itself as a little bit of a bellwether for the rest of the nation.

[Toby]

I do want to talk a little bit more about the Musk of it all because Elon Musk is this big figure. He spent a lot of money to help get President Trump elected. He now has his Doge team making cuts in the government. And he's sort of everywhere he's ever present. And he's also ever present in this race. Domenico, do you see anything about how Musk is playing in this race that might tell us something about whether he plans to continue to be active in politics, whether 2024 was a one off for him or whether this is a new part of the way he is going to play in politics?

[Tamara Keith]

It seems like a new identity for Musk because, you know, he was pretty new to politics in the 2024 cycle and here he is playing again. I mean, he donated something like a quarter billion dollars to Donald Trump's campaign efforts, the efforts to get him elected. So in a lot of ways, yeah, we talk about this as potentially a referendum on Trump and Musk, but he's inserted himself pretty boldly in this race where it is becoming sort of a test of Musk and of Trump. And, you know, in our polling, the NPR PBS News Marist poll, Musk's favorability rating was at 39%. So really not very popular with most people.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Early voting has already started. And so it's also just kind of interesting the way in which national attention is here. Obviously, for myself as a political reporter, I am thinking about this and paying attention to it all the time. And your average voter might not necessarily see it at the level of stakes that we kind of attribute it to.

[Toby]

All right, Anya, thank you so much for your reporting.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Thanks for having me.

[Toby]

I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

[Tamara Keith]

I'm Domenico Montanaro senior political editor and correspondent.

[Toby]

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

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[Domenico Montanaro]

That might have been the only time.

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