Miles Parks (2:57)

Domenico, why do you think the TSA stuff has kind of broken through this week in a way? Maybe didn't initially?

Domenico Montanaro (3:03)

Well, I mean, I think the longer this went on that was always going to be the case because people are going to look at their televisions, they're going to feel it in their own travel if they do travel. And even if they don't travel, you know, all of what they see on social media or again on TV is going to be these long lines in various airports, even if they're not all over the country. I think it's been pretty sporadic where some places you've had really long lines, other places you've had shorter waits. And I think that it goes to this idea of dysfunction in the government in general and people wondering why this continues to go on, especially the further removed the country is from the shooting of the two American citizens in Minnesota.

Miles Parks (3:45)

So Sam, at the core of this dispute is Democrats demands for reform related to immigration enforcement. After the two shootings Domenico mentioned, can you remind us what the actual reforms that Democrats are hoping for are?

Sam Greenglass (3:59)

Yeah, Democrats are asking for a host of changes to rein in the tactics of immigration enforcement officers. Top among them are some lower hanging fruit that we have heard some openness to from the White House. Things like requiring officer worn body cameras. But then there are also some asks that Democrats say are really important that the White House has called non starters. Things like requiring judicial warrants for immigration agents to enter homes or businesses and also banning immigration agents from wearing masks. And right now Democrats are saying that they are not going to vote for any funding deal that includes any money for ICE unless they get some of these reforms.

Miles Parks (4:42)

Okay, and then what are Republicans willing to offer? Are there any of those reforms, I guess that that they are willing to negotiate on or where do they stand?

Sam Greenglass (4:50)

Yeah, there are some. But what Republicans have put on the table for most of this week is a funding deal that would include money for DHS but exclude money for enforcement and removal operations. This unit within ICE that deals with some of the policy changes that Democrats are asking for. But the catch is that Democrats say they are not going to fund ICE at all without these reforms that they have been pushing for. What they're concerned about is that if you even fund part of ICE, that the administration could simply move some money around from other parts of that agency and use it for enforcement and removal

Miles Parks (5:24)

ICE got a huge influx of money from the big beautiful bill. And so aren't those workers still getting paid? I guess I'm wondering how that is playing into the leverage that Democrats actually have when it comes to the shutdown.

Sam Greenglass (5:36)

Yeah, Congress gave Immigration and Customs enforcement some $75 billion last summer as part of the party line, one big beautiful bill act that Republicans passed. And so, yeah, there is limits to what Congress can do to rein in ICE because they don't have that leverage, while I still has plenty of funding to work with. So unlike those TSA officers, ICE agents are getting paid. And we saw this week the Trump administration deploy them to airports actually to assist TSA officers in some limited capacities as these lines start to strangle travel at some airports.

Miles Parks (6:12)

How else is President Trump kind of playing into all of this?

Sam Greenglass (6:15)

Well, President Trump is one reason that we have seen so much whiplash over the state of dealmaking this week. After it seemed like the president had agreed to Senate Republicans plan to get this funding flowing again. He then came out and said that he would not accept any deal unless it also included the, the strict voter ID law and voting overhaul that he's been pushing for, known as the Save America Act. He said that these two things had to be welded together. Now, later, Senate Republicans came up with a workaround that maybe they could do that Save America act later as part of another party line reconciliation bill that would not require Democratic buy in. But Trump has not yet publicly endorsed that plan. And so there is some ambiguity on how much the president is willing to back a funding bill that does not deal with this voting overhaul that he has been really pressing for.

Domenico Montanaro (7:13)

And that's certainly been an obsession of the President's this, you know, Save America Voting Act. But I think a lot of people are going to look at that and say, what does that have to do exactly with DHS funding and why would that be holding up a bill? Especially when Senate Republicans were feeling like they might be able to strike some sort of a deal that, you know, would go between Democrats and the White House. I think it's a little, you know, too soon to say whether or not Republicans in Congress would, you know, go against the president and pass something anyway even if he didn't back it, because, you know, at this point, they still can't get Democrats on board with that because Democrats feel like they haven't seen the reforms that they've been wanting to see in ice. And really, you've got, again, got TSA agents and people who are waiting at airports kind of stuck in the middle of all of this.

Miles Parks (8:00)

All right, let's take a quick break on more on all of this in just a moment.

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Miles Parks (9:18)

and we're back. And Domenico, I'm wondering about timing because after the shootings in Minnesota of two American citizens, there was a real public outcry and a feeling that for many Americans that Trump's immigration enforcement efforts had gone too far. But as we get weeks and months away from those shootings, do you feel like that has changed the leverage equation here for Democrats in keeping DHS shut

Domenico Montanaro (9:46)

down, you know, regardless of that exact situation? It's a little bit of a crass political axiom to say, as Rahm Emanuel used to say, never let a good political crisis go to waste. But the point of that is that a lot of political action can happen right after something major happens and captures the attention of the country like that did. It's why you've seen the playbook from the nra, the National Rifle association, to say, let's take a pause here after, you know, a mass shooting. Let's not do anything rash. Let's not try to pass gun legislation now. Let's wait till longer out so that people can get cooler heads. And what that really means is wait so that the politics change and people settle down a little bit. And I think that in this case there, you know, Democrats may have felt like at the outset that they had some leverage to be able to get some of these changes that they want. And if this continues on and Republicans are able to point at Democrats and put the blame on them, you know, and you may hear some Democrats say, you know, let's take this low hanging fruit and get DHS back open and stop this partial government shutdown. But at this point, public opinion polling isn't really showing a real clear picture of who people are blaming and whether or not they think that Democrats or Republicans should hang on to the position that they have. For example, there was a CBS YouGov poll out that said that Americans were pretty unfavorable of Republicans holding a hard line against these changes that Democrats want. You know, only 23% that they thought that the Republicans position was worth being able to keep the partial shutdown. And 42% said that it wasn't. You know, it's not, it's not a huge number overall pointing blame in either party's direction. You know, and I think that there's a lot of people's minds to be made up on all this.

Sam Greenglass (11:38)

Yeah. And Miles, I saw a clip on social media from a reporter that talked to one traveler at an airport waiting in a really long line who wasn't blaming Democrats or blaming Republicans, but was saying fire them all. And I think that gets to some of this frustration more broadly with the Congress that has refused to act in many spaces. And again, this is the third shutdown in just the last couple of months. One other point, though, I would make to what you were pointing to before about just the news cycle moving so quickly in say just the last six months. That first government shutdown that was about health subsidies that was eating up all of the oxygen in Congress. Then we had action in Venezuela and immigration and then Iran and then back to immigration. And so the news cycle is moving so quickly that it can be very hard to keep focus on one particular issue for a very long time when something new is always going to be around the corner.

Miles Parks (12:33)

Has that played into this? Are lawmakers bringing that up in terms of, is this really the best time to have DHS shut down for more than a month?

Sam Greenglass (12:41)

Yeah, I mean, this is something that I've heard from some lawmakers saying that this is a particularly dangerous time not to have the Department of Homeland Security fully funded. Though I should note that essential jobs at DHS are still being staffed when there is a shutdown, but some are working without pay. Like we've heard with TSA agents, though, you know, as we've talked about in these last couple of minutes, the news cycle has moved so fast that there's a little bit less focus on Iran right now than there was just a week ago. That could again change if, you know, there is something that brings it back to the forefront of the news cycle.

Miles Parks (13:17)

I mean, when we had that government shutdown, the record long government shutdown last fall, a few Democrats ended up breaking ranks to vote to reopen the government. Does it seem like that's where we're headed, Sam, in terms of the most likely outcome?

Sam Greenglass (13:29)

I don't know about most likely, but that is one potential off ramp here. We've heard from a couple of those Democrats who joined with Republicans to end the shutdown last fall that they might be open to some kind of deal that leaves aside funding for ice, but it would have to include specific assurances to make sure that funding for one part of ICE isn't used to, to do immigration enforcement by just moving money around. And that's one concern that we're hearing from some of those Democrats. And so, yeah, that is one possibility here. But so far, Democrats have remained pretty unified against the Republicans offers.

Domenico Montanaro (14:06)

I think the real issue here is how do Democrats, you know, find an off ramp on this and how do Republicans wind up being able to show that they're willing to do anything to make, you know, the ice, you know, tactics less harsh? Because there, there has been significant pushback in polling against the president's tactics on this. And if the president and Republicans in Congress appear to be the ones who are unlikely to budge on these harsh deportation tactics, that could be problematic politically for them. At the same time, if Democrats are handed some compromises that Republicans tout and Democrats are the ones who seem to be, you know, saying, no, we're going to hold out for as much of everything as we want. They may have a significant part of their base that's in favor of that, but maybe not everybody. And we also have to realize at the same time, most people aren't paying attention to almost any of this except for when the government winds up encroaching into their lives and having to see long lines at airports or, you know, being part of something where they want to, you know, be able to, you know, go travel or something like that. And, you know, when shutdown happens and those things are impacting them. So, you know, I think you're gonna have a real messaging blame game that kind of comes up here. I think that's going to be a big piece of which side's able to say, hey, we're giving, they're, they're not willing to take.

Sam Greenglass (15:32)

I should just add that another dynamic here, too is personal for lawmakers in that they are supposed to be heading off on a two week recess over the Easter and Passover holidays. Lawmakers are wanting to get home. And so sometimes this, this Thursday night zone before recess can be a moment that really pushes lawmakers to come together around something, though, again, we have also heard from Senate Majority Leader John Thune that he's willing to keep people over the weekend to keep them into the recess if this deal doesn't get done. And so we will certainly be watching whether anything comes together.

Domenico Montanaro (16:07)

Yeah, that old motivation of the smell of jet fuel. Right. But at the same time, I think Democrats, you know, just don't trust this president to be able to say, yeah, we're going to make these changes. Don't worry about it. They want to see it in writing. They want it to be concrete and they want to be able to show that they extracted a win here.

Miles Parks (16:25)

It feels like we're in an age of eternal government shutdown one way or the other. And at the same time, I feel like I've seen polling where most people say they want lawmakers who compromise. How do we square those two things? Why are we in this position where we are just constantly talking about one shutdown or another?

Domenico Montanaro (16:43)

Oh, boy, that's a longer conversation, Miles. But you know, I mean, in general, what we've seen over the years is Democrats and their base being more willing to let their elected officials compromise on things and say that they value compromise more. And what we've seen on the other hand, is Republican rank and file voters saying that they don't want to see compromise. They'd rather see their elected leaders stand on principle. And we've certainly seen that in the era of Trump.

Miles Parks (17:14)

All right. Well, we can leave it there for today. Make sure you hit the follow button wherever you listen to your podcast to make sure you don't miss an episode. We'll be back in your feeds tomorrow.

Sam Greenglass (17:22)

I'm Myles Parks.

Miles Parks (17:23)

I cover voting.

Sam Greenglass (17:24)

I'm Sam Greenglass, I cover Congress.

Domenico Montanaro (17:25)

And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.

Miles Parks (17:28)

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast, Foreign.

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