Will The U.S. Get Involved In Military Action With Iran?

Summary

Summary of "Will The U.S. Get Involved In Military Action With Iran?" Episode of The NPR Politics Podcast

Release Date: June 20, 2025

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1. Overview of Current Geopolitical Tensions

In this episode, NPR's political analysts delve into the escalating tensions in the Middle East, focusing on the renewed conflict between Israel and Iran. The discussion highlights the historical context of the rivalry, recent military actions, and the potential implications for U.S. involvement.

2. Escalation of the Israel-Iran Conflict

Greg Myhre provides a comprehensive background on the conflict, explaining that the hostility between Israel and Iran has intensified over the past week due to concerns over Iran's nuclear aspirations.

"Israel attacked exactly a week ago Friday of last week, saying it could no longer wait. It felt Iran was making a push for a nuclear weapon and it felt it needed to attack." [01:23]

Key points discussed include:

• Initial Strikes: Israel launched unexpected attacks targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and missile capabilities.
• Air Dominance: Israel currently maintains control over Iranian airspace, particularly around Tehran and western Iran.
• Ongoing Air Warfare: Both nations continue to exchange missile strikes, with recent attacks near Haifa resulting in casualties.

Greg Myhre emphasizes the nature of the conflict as an indefinite air war with no ground troop involvement, suggesting that the lack of a clear victor could prolong hostilities.

3. Potential U.S. Involvement in the Conflict

The podcast shifts focus to the United States' role in the unfolding situation. Tamara Keith and Deirdre Walsh explore the possible scenarios of U.S. intervention and the factors influencing President Trump's decision-making process.

Deirdre Walsh discusses the White House's stance, noting that President Trump is contemplating whether to escalate U.S. involvement within a two-week timeframe.

"President Trump often says something is going to happen in two weeks or ask me again in two weeks. And most of the time it doesn't happen." [05:06]

Greg Myhre outlines potential military actions the U.S. might take if President Trump decides to engage offensively:

"The US would likely use these massive bunker busting bombs, £30,000, the biggest in the US arsenal, and it would target Fordo, which is a nuclear fuel plant to the south of Tehran." [02:52]

Key considerations include:

• Military Capabilities: The use of advanced bunker-busting bombs capable of penetrating deeply fortified sites.
• U.S. Defense Support: Existing American military assets in the region, including ships, warplanes, and air defense systems, are already aiding Israel's defensive efforts.
• Uncertainties: The effectiveness of such weapons and potential unintended consequences remain unclear.

4. Congressional Perspectives and Legislative Dynamics

The discussion moves to Capitol Hill, where lawmakers are grappling with the implications of potential U.S. military intervention in Iran.

Tamara Keith highlights the divided stance within Congress:

• Republican Support: Many congressional Republicans are backing President Trump's decision, aligning with the "America First" ideology to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
• Democratic Concerns: Democrats are cautious about the repercussions of military action, including the safety of American personnel in the region and the potential for broader conflict.

Notably, Senator Tim Kaine has introduced a War Powers Resolution requiring congressional approval for any military action against Iran, adding another layer of complexity to the decision-making process.

"There can't be military action unless Congress votes on it, specifically military action against Iran." [07:34]

5. The Big Tax and Spending Cuts Bill

Parallel to the geopolitical tensions, the podcast addresses domestic legislative challenges, specifically the President's proposed tax and spending cuts bill.

Tamara Keith outlines the bill's components:

• Tax Cuts: Trillions in tax reductions, including making 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent and introducing new exemptions such as no tax on tips and overtime.
• Spending Cuts: Significant reductions in Medicaid funding, introducing work requirements that could potentially leave up to 16 million Americans without health insurance, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

"This could mean millions of people lose their health insurance." [12:06]

Additional insights include:

• Deficit Impact: The CBO estimates the bill would increase the deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade.
• Internal Republican Divisions: Conservatives within the Senate are pushing for deeper spending cuts, while some House Republicans are advocating for specific tax breaks for high-cost states like California and New York.

6. Challenges in Passing the Bill and President Trump's Role

The Senate faces significant hurdles in reconciling differences between the House and Senate versions of the bill. Greg Myhre and Deirdre Walsh discuss the political maneuvering required to secure the necessary votes.

"The Senate comes back next week. They're planning to start debate and hopefully get the ball rolling on voting the bill through the Senate by the end of next Week." [15:01]

Key challenges include:

• Vote Majority: Achieving a 51-vote threshold to pass the bill, with four Republican no votes potentially derailing the effort.
• President Trump's Priorities: Balancing urgent foreign policy decisions regarding Iran with the pressing need to finalize the domestic tax and spending reforms.

Deirdre Walsh notes the President's multiple deadlines, including trade deals with over 100 countries and ongoing negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, which may impact his ability to manage both domestic and international crises effectively.

"The President is now dealing with a bunch of different things, and he is the ultimate closer, and he's very effective at helping them find a way to." [16:11]

7. Looking Ahead: Upcoming Developments

The episode concludes by forecasting key events to watch in the coming week:

• Intelligence Briefing: Scheduled to provide insights into Iran's nuclear capabilities, potentially influencing President Trump's decision on military intervention.
• Senate Votes: The War Powers Resolution introduced by Senator Tim Kaine and the progress of the tax and spending cuts bill in the Senate.

Tamara Keith emphasizes the importance of these developments in shaping both U.S. foreign policy and domestic economic strategies.

"I think the intelligence briefing on Iran and whether we learn what they're hearing and what their comfort level is about backing the president's decision based on what they hear about Iran's nuclear program and whether in fact this big tax and spending bill ends up getting a vote at the end of next week." [17:50]

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Conclusion

This episode of The NPR Politics Podcast provides an in-depth analysis of the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, the potential for U.S. military involvement, and the intertwined challenges of passing significant domestic legislation. Through expert commentary and detailed discussions, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the geopolitical and political landscapes shaping current events.

Transcript

[Tamara Keith]

The Middle east is dominating this week's headlines on CONSIDER this, we dive into what's at stake in a war between Israel and Iran. Plus, we take a look back at the Iraq war and lessons from 2003. Listen now to the Consider this podcast on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Erica. Hi, I'm Caroline. And we just graduated high school. You're listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

[Deirdre Walsh]

This podcast was recorded at 12:22pm on Friday, June 20th.

[Tamara Keith]

I'm off to UT. And I'm off to OU. So now we're lifelong enemies. Enjoy the podcast.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Oh, that's fabulous. Congratulations.

[Tamara Keith]

Congratulations. Graduation season, full swing.

[Deirdre Walsh]

And I believe, and I correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this is the first day of summer. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

[Tamara Keith]

I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress.

[Greg Myhre]

And I'm Greg Myrey. I cover national security.

[Deirdre Walsh]

And today on the show, the latest developments between the U.S. israel and Iran. Greg, this conflict between Israel and Iran has been going hot for about a week. But remind us, why is this happening?

[Greg Myhre]

Yeah, I mean, it's sort of a decades old rivalry that's burst into the open. Israel attacked exactly a week ago Friday of last week, saying it could no longer wait. It felt Iran was making a push for a nuclear weapon and it felt it needed to attack. Now. Israel really caught Iran by surprise and clearly has had the upper hand in this first week of fighting. It controls the skies over Tehran, the capital of Iran, and much of western Iran, where the fighting is primarily taking place. The attacks, though, are very much going both ways. Israel is focused on Iran's nuclear facilities, number one, and then number two, the missiles and missile launchers that Iran is using to strike at Israel. Iran is still firing these missiles in waves. More hit today, one near the northern coastal city of Haifa, injuring a number of people. So this, I think, is important to note the obvious here entirely. An air war. There are really no ground troops involved, but it also means that neither side is going to, in a sense, capture the other. And as long as they have weapons to fire, this air war could continue indefinitely.

[Deirdre Walsh]

I do want to talk about the US Role here and what the US Role is now and what it could be. The White House said yesterday that President Trump would decide whether to get involved in the conflict in a big way in the next two weeks. So what could US Involvement look like?

[Greg Myhre]

Yeah, Tim, I think the big question is, will the US get involved that's still very much an open question. And if President Trump decides to get involved in the sense of the US Playing offense and attacking Iran, then we probably have a pretty good idea of what that will look like. The US would likely use these massive bunker busting bombs, £30,000, the biggest in the US arsenal, and it would target Fordo, which is a nuclear fuel plant to the south of tehran. It's buried 300ft inside a mountain. Neither Israel nor any other countries really believe to have a bomb that could penetrate this deeply and do this much damage. And indeed, we don't know that the US could actually do this. This weapon has been tested for at least a decade or so. It's never been used in combat. It's considered a very precise weapon. So it might take multiple bombing runs to hit the exact same site, to keep penetrating more and more deeply till it would reach the Iranian facility. But again, no guarantees. And then, of course, we don't know what the unintended consequences could be afterwards. And one thing I think is important to add to this is the US Already is involved in helping Israel play defense. US Ships in the Mediterranean, US warplanes in the region, and US Air defense systems on the ground in Israel are helping shoot down missiles. We don't know the exact extent or the precise role they're playing, but Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu has stated this publicly several times. We're hearing very little actually from the Americans about this, but the Americans are actively involved in Israel's defense already. The question is, will the Americans take part in offensive operations?

[Tamara Keith]

Tam, I wanted to jump in and ask you about this whole two week timeline, because earlier in the week on Capitol Hill there was a feeling like that this decision was very imminent, that Congress was sort of bracing for what President Trump could do. But then yesterday, the White House press secretary read the statement from the president saying he would decide in two weeks. It's kind of like a familiar thing he does.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Yet two weeks is a state of mind as much as it is a precise measure of time. President Trump often says something is going to happen in two weeks or ask me again in two weeks. And most of the time it doesn't happen. Whatever it is does not happen in two weeks. Is this a Trumpian two weeks or is this a real two weeks and we just don't know. He certainly is considering opting. He's hearing from a lot of people. He ran on America First. One of his core ideologies is that the US should not be involved in foreign wars. And you know that he was going to end wars and get America out of wars. And this is indirect conflict with that. Greg, I do want to ask you what happens if President Trump decides not to use these bunker busting bombs to help Israel?

[Greg Myhre]

If the US Decides not to get involved, that could have huge consequences. Israel believes, and the US Believes this as well, that the Fordo nuclear site, as well as other nuclear sites need to be hugely damaged, if not destroyed, for this to be a successful military operation. If those facilities survive and Iran still has a functioning nuclear program, then it would be hard to call this a success from the Israeli and US Perspectives. So President Trump may be wanting to wait and see, see how Israel progresses in its air campaign, whether Israel can pull something out of its hat to carry this operation out on its own. It's not clear how it would do that, but it would give him a little bit of time both to see what Israel might be able to do on the battlefield and also whether there may be some diplomatic solution. So it buys some time, but it doesn't necessarily answer the key questions about what state Iran's nuclear program will be in.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Before all of this, the Trump administration had been very actively trying to get a new nuclear deal with Iran. There were talks underway. It was more serious than we'd seen in years since President Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal that, that the Obama administration had cemented. Deirdre, how is this all playing up on the Hill?

[Tamara Keith]

So a couple of the issues that Greg raised are sort of key threshold questions that people are asking on the Hill in terms of the intelligence. I don't think a lot of lawmakers have enough information or some of them want a lot more information about what is the state of the Iranian nuclear program. Could a B2US bomber with one of these bunker buster bombs attacking one of those sites like Fordo and actually finish the job? And I think that issue is something that a lot of members want to know before they sort of speak out in terms of whether they're for any kind of military action going forward. I do think so far, the vast majority of congressional Republicans are giving President Trump the space to make a decision. Some of them have been more leaning into, we support a targeted attack on Iran's nuclear program. Even some Republicans that ran on or echoed President Trump's America first campaign themes, saying they don't support another war in the Middle east, are saying, look, the president and Vice President Vance have always been saying, we don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. So for them, they feel like that promise is the way they can support some type of military intervention with the US Going forward. I mean, I think the other flip side of that is Democrats pointing out that what happens next if the US Goes in and bombs these nuclear sites? What's the response? And how does the US Military get dragged into protecting the US Military personnel and diplomatic personnel that are in the region? Because there are a significant number of American troops and diplomatic people in the region that could face a serious threat from Iran and its proxies. So I think those issues are things that we're watching. There is a intelligence briefing scheduled for early next week. I think it's interesting because now it likely will come before the president makes a decision. I think a lot of people thought there could have been a decision without any briefing on the Hill, and that caused a lot of alarms, especially among Democrats. We're also going to see next week something that will also complicate this picture, which is Senator Tim Kaine from Virginia introduced a War Powers Resolution. It's a privileged resolution that says there can't be military action unless Congress votes on it, specifically military action against Iran. He will get a vote, and he could get a vote as early as the end of next week. All right.

[Deirdre Walsh]

We're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, the president's one big beautiful bill.

[Tamara Keith]

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[Deirdre Walsh]

Millions of women have safe abortions regardless of the law.

[Tamara Keith]

Hear that story on the network from.

[Deirdre Walsh]

NPR's Embedded and Futuro Media, wherever you get your podcast. And we're back. And let's head over to Capitol Hill. Republican lawmakers in Congress are coming up against a self imposed deadline to get President Trump's big tax and spending cuts bill passed. Deirdre, we are talking about the so called one big beautiful bill. It passed the House in the spring, but it is running into some issues in the Senate. So first off, remind us what is in this bill.

[Tamara Keith]

So this is the President's big tax cut and spending cut bill. It has trillions in tax cuts. The current 2017 Trump tax cuts expire at the end of this calendar year. So this would make those permanent going forward and add some new ones that he campaigned on, like no tax on tips, no tax on overtime. It also has money for defense programs, for border security, increasing ICE agents, border enforcement. It also includes significant cuts to Medicaid. Republicans needed to find a place to offset the trillions in tax cuts with spending cuts. And the majority of the cuts come from major cuts to the Medicaid program. That's the health insurance program for low income elderly and disabled Americans. And a lot of those cuts come from changing the way the program's financed, adding new work requirements on who's eligible for the program. It could mean millions of people lose their health insurance. One recent estimate from CBO said As many as 16 million Americans could lose their health insurance as a result of the changes in this bill.

[Deirdre Walsh]

And CBO is the Congressional Budget Office, an independent scorekeeper, if you will, for legislation, who also has found that this legislation, even with all of the cuts, would add $3.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.

[Tamara Keith]

Correct. A lot of the same issues that split Republicans in the House are splitting Republicans in the Senate. There are some conservatives in the Senate who don't think that the Senate version of the bill that was introduced recently cuts enough spending. They would like the bill to go farther. There's also a tax break that a group of House Republicans fought mightily for to get in the House version of the bill. This is a tax break for so called high cost states, blue states like California and New York with high state and local property taxes. Sort of reinstates an old tax break that they wanted to get back in the Senate, reduced that. Those House Republicans are saying if you don't fix this when this comes back to the House, we'll kill the bill. So there's just sort of internal divisions that threatening the, as you said, self imposed deadline of trying to get this bill passed before July 4th. The Senate comes back next week. They're planning to start debate and hopefully get the ball rolling on voting the bill through the Senate by the end of next Week, if Senate Majority Leader John Thune can't get the 51 votes, he can't resolve these issues. That deadline could slip. Remember, four Republican no votes sink this bill. So there's a lot of tough negotiations that Thune and President Trump will likely have to get personally involved in to get this over the finish line.

[Greg Myhre]

Deirdre, how are they going to sort out all these differences? It sounds like the existing House bill and the things the Senate wants to do have a lot of differences.

[Tamara Keith]

I think it's all going to come down to President Trump again. I think that there are some things that senators will put up a big fight on, but at the end of the day, they don't want to block the president's signature legislative accomplishment. They don't want to be seen as blocking tax cuts, because if these tax breaks aren't renewed by the end of December, most people, most Americans will be looking at a tax increase. And I think that is the sort of hammer on most Congressional Republicans overall. So I think that there's going to be some increased pressure from President Trump personally on these members. We saw his White House Chief of staff, Susie Wiles, was on the Hill meeting with Senate Republicans, Republicans on Wednesday saying, you guys gotta get this done. But, you know, my question, Greg, is if he's overseeing a major decision about what to do in Iran, how does he juggle lobbying senators on a tax bill? I feel like that's. There's a lot on the president's plate, Tam. You might have a better sense about how that's gonna work out.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Well, yeah, let me just add another spinning plate to this circus act, which is the president also has a July 8 deadline that he has set to get trade deals with more than 100 countries. You know, or. Or the tariffs will go back up. And obviously, like, this is a deadline the president created, it is a deadline the president can extend. But there have only been two trade deals so far. Lots of promises of other ones coming within two weeks, but there are a lot of outstanding negotiations. And then the President is focused on what's happening with Iran. We haven't even talked about Russia and Ukraine, which has somehow fallen off the radar, but is entirely possible that comes back up. You know, presidents don't get to choose their crises. The President is now dealing with a bunch of different things, and he is the ultimate closer, and he's very effective at helping them find a way to. Yes, but that takes time and effort. There's just a lot on the president's plate.

[Tamara Keith]

I mean, I would say, Tam that a lot of the same conservatives who say, hell no, I'm not going to vote for a bill that doesn't decrease the deficit as much as I want it to fold it in the House. And some of these Republicans who are looking for the state and local tax break, you know, they knew going into this the Senate was not going to be friendly to their cause. So they're going to, at the end of the day, likely be forced to take something less than what they want. I think they know that. But a lot of this is politics. They got to put up a fight until the last minute.

[Deirdre Walsh]

So next week, Deirdre, what are you watching for?

[Tamara Keith]

I think the intelligence briefing on Iran and whether we learn what they're hearing and what their comfort level is about backing the president's decision based on what they hear about Iran's nuclear program and whether in fact this big tax and spending bill ends up getting a vote at the end of next week. I think it could slip.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Yeah. And we should be clear that it could slip. There aren't huge consequences until August.

[Tamara Keith]

Right. Any delay in the Senate action sort of impacts the ability to negotiate on a final deal with the House before we get to that real deadline, which is August in terms of the debt limit staring Congress down. That's the real deadline they're all worried about. All right.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Well, we are going to take one more break and then it's time for Can't Let It Go.

[Greg Myhre]

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[Greg Myhre]

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[Tamara Keith]

The radio or maybe even at this.

[Deirdre Walsh]

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[Greg Myhre]

Say those things on the radio and on the podcast.

[Deirdre Walsh]

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[Deirdre Walsh]

And we're back. And it's time for Can't Let It Go, the part of the pod where we talk about all the things from the week that we just can't stop thinking about politics or otherwise. Greg, what do you got?

[Greg Myhre]

Well, in the world of professional hockey, there is a new Stanley cup champion, the Florida Panthers. They won on Tuesday night four games to two over the Edmonton Oilers, the second straight year the Florida Panthers have won the Stanley Cup. So for those of our listeners who are not hockey fans, you may be surprised to see that South Florida is becoming the capital of the hockey world. So that tradition may be a little new, but there's another tradition that's still very much intact and that is damaging the Stanley cup after you win.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Oh, no.

[Tamara Keith]

What did they do to it?

[Deirdre Walsh]

I mean, I know you, like drink out of it, right?

[Greg Myhre]

Oh, absolutely. This is not some precious item that you put behind glass at your team headquarters and everybody looks at it reverently. No, you take it out and go drinking with it. You have big celebrations and they give it to players, and individual players get to have it for a day or two and run around town with it. So you see in Fort Lauderdale, the day after the Panthers won, one of the players is holding it up. It's got a huge dent at the base of it.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Oh, my gosh.

[Greg Myhre]

But this is there's nothing new about this. There was a sort of a really famous video a couple of years ago in the Colorado Avalanche 1, and the players are out on the ice gathered for like a team photo. And the guy with with the big Stanley cup is skating there. He trips and falls, bangs it on the ice and leaves a huge dent in there. So basically every year, the Stanley cup, which they've been playing so hard for all year, gets mangled and they have to bang it back into shape and get it ready to be handed out next year. So it's going from player to player and may get a few more dings in it before they send it back and repair it for next year.

[Deirdre Walsh]

This is just making me think of JD Vance at that White House ceremony. I think it was like the National College Football Championship or something. And he picks up the trophy and it just disintegrates in his hands.

[Greg Myhre]

That's right. Yes, absolutely.

[Tamara Keith]

I come from a big hockey family and I think from the Walsh family. I think we want the Stanley cup back in dc. The Caps need to get it back.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Yes, absolutely. I can agree with that. I am going to go next and I will keep it short. I think I am just back from vacation and I am in an era where I will unapologetically take time off. So one should so as stay sane. Yes. Because the news is a fire hose. So sometimes you just have to go on vacation. And we took our boys to Costa Rica and I didn't fully realize that we had signed up for as many adventures as we did, but I am afraid of heights. And yet somehow, in order to be strong and prove to my kids that I am not weak, we did zip lining. We jumped off of cliffs into the base of a waterfall. I rode a waterfall like it was a water slide, which was utterly frightening. And I thought I had broken my nose, but it's fine. We rappelled off of cliffs.

[Tamara Keith]

Yikes.

[Deirdre Walsh]

I mean, it was completely insane.

[Tamara Keith]

I want some video of the cliff jumping. There's gotta be video, Tam.

[Deirdre Walsh]

There is video. Maybe I'll put it on.

[Tamara Keith]

That, to me, is the scariest part of all the things you listed.

[Deirdre Walsh]

It's all scary. It was all scary. And I can't say that I have conquered my fears of heights, bridges jumping off of things falling, but I can say that I did all of that.

[Tamara Keith]

Man, you powered through.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Good job, Deirdre. What can't you let go of?

[Tamara Keith]

So the thing I can't let go of is Mariah Carey, who said in an interview in the UK in the last few days, she just doesn't believe in time. She doesn't believe in time. She doesn't have clocks. She doesn't use clocks. She no longer has any birthdays. And I think this is her way of just not getting any older. I think she's maybe around 56 and getting to that age. And maybe I just want to agree with Mariah Carey. Maybe that should just be my thing. There are no more clocks. There is no more time.

[Deirdre Walsh]

I'm sure the producers of this podcast would be thrilled.

[Greg Myhre]

Try that with an editor when you're on deadline.

[Tamara Keith]

Yeah, that's not gonna work in radio. But the weird thing about this whole Mariah Carey thing is she doesn't believe in birthdays or clocks, but she does celebrate anniversaries, which I would say come after passage of time.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Yeah, I think that there is a logical fallacy here, but whatever, I guess. Mariah Carey.

[Tamara Keith]

Mariah Carey, you can, you know, everyone's on your time.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Mariah Carey, you do you. Yes. I believe that when you become a diva in the greatest sense, like you are Mariah Carey. Yeah. People run on her time. She earned it.

[Tamara Keith]

Life goals.

[Deirdre Walsh]

I don't even aspire to that. All right. That is all for today. Our executive producer is Mathani Muturi. Casey Morell edits the podcast. Our producer is Bria Suggs. Special thanks to Krishnadev Kalamer, Lexi Schapitl and Ben Swayze. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

[Tamara Keith]

I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress.

[Greg Myhre]

And I'm Greg Myhre. I cover national security.

[Deirdre Walsh]

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

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