The Rest Is Classified: Episode 26 - The Intelligence War: Trump and the End of American Support for Ukraine

Release Date: March 6, 2025

Introduction

In Episode 26 of The Rest Is Classified, hosts David McCloskey and Gordon Corera delve into the intricate dynamics of intelligence sharing between the United States and Ukraine. Titled "The Intelligence War: Trump and the End of American Support for Ukraine," the episode explores recent developments that suggest a potential pause in U.S. intelligence support to Ukraine under the Trump administration. This comprehensive summary captures the essential discussions, insights, and conclusions presented by the hosts.

Setting the Stage: The Pause in Intelligence Sharing

The episode opens with the hosts addressing a critical and rapidly evolving situation: reports indicating that the United States may have paused its intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Gordon Corera introduces the topic by stating:

“...the United States may have paused whatever that means, its intelligence sharing with Ukraine.” (02:18)

David McCloskey elaborates on recent statements from John Ratcliffe, the CIA Director, highlighting the ambiguity surrounding the nature and duration of the pause:

"There's a pause on military and intelligence support to Ukraine. Essentially, it seems intel and a bit reading between the lines here until President Trump feels that President Zelensky of Ukraine sort of committed himself to the sort of peace process that Trump himself is trying to sort of facilitate and broker." (03:31)

Historical Context: Building the US-Ukraine Intelligence Relationship

To comprehend the significance of the current developments, McCloskey and Corera provide a historical overview of the intelligence-sharing relationship between the U.S. and Ukraine, tracing its roots back to 2014. McCloskey explains:

"This is a relationship that really goes back to 2014, when Viktor Yanukovych, the prior president of Ukraine, fled. The security agencies that he left sort of in place in Ukraine were, I think, in CIA's estimation, basically rotten with Russian agents and spies and just compromised." (04:34)

The hosts emphasize that this partnership was not born out of the 2022 Russian invasion but was a decade-long effort to strengthen Ukraine's intelligence capabilities against Russian influence.

Types of Intelligence Shared and Their Critical Role

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the types of intelligence the U.S. has been providing to Ukraine and their impact on the battlefield. Corera notes the technical prowess of U.S. intelligence:

"These things that only the US can basically do, that no other country, including the UK actually has the kind of technical collection capabilities the US has..." (07:24)

Key forms of intelligence shared include satellite imagery, signals intelligence (SIGINT), and tactical data essential for Ukraine's defense operations. McCloskey adds:

"The CIA has sort of financed the construction of a string of bases along the Russian border inside Ukraine that basically serve as SIGINT collection platforms." (10:11)

These capabilities have enabled Ukraine to anticipate Russian movements, launch effective countermeasures, and conduct precise strikes against Russian forces.

Implications of the Pause: Short-Term and Long-Term Effects

The potential pause in intelligence sharing raises concerns about its immediate and lasting effects on Ukraine's military effectiveness. Campbell discusses two primary uncertainties:

1. Duration of the Pause:

   "If it's paused for 48 hours, 72 hours, two weeks, it probably doesn't matter all that much." (13:21)

2. Scope of the Pause:

   "Whether it's just targeting inside Russia or a much broader pause on the intelligence." (13:21)

Corera highlights specific operations, such as the use of HIMARS rocket systems, that rely heavily on continuous intelligence:

"That means you effectively can't launch those HIMARS, which are the very effective rockets that they were firing." (11:24)

The hosts agree that while a short-term pause might have limited impact, an extended halt could significantly degrade Ukraine's defensive and offensive capabilities.

Political Maneuvering and Diplomatic Tactics

The episode delves into the political motivations behind the intelligence sharing pause. Corera suggests that the U.S. pause may be a strategic move to pressure Ukraine into negotiations:

"This is all part of the pressure being put on President Zelensky to come back to the table." (15:44)

McCloskey reinforces this perspective by discussing how intelligence relationships are subordinate to political agendas:

"Security relationships are always subordinate to the politics. They can be used... the political masters decide the extent of the sharing, the extent of the relationship, what the red lines are." (15:44)

This underscores the transactional nature of intelligence partnerships, where political developments can significantly influence intelligence operations.

Mutual Benefits and the Two-Way Street of Intelligence Sharing

Despite the emerging tensions, the hosts acknowledge the reciprocal benefits of the U.S.-Ukraine intelligence relationship. McCloskey points out that the Ukrainians have provided valuable intelligence to the U.S., enhancing its understanding of Russian operations:

"The Ukrainians have provided really, really helpful information back to us on Russia, on Russian weapons systems... the information the Ukrainians have provided is worth billions." (19:09)

This mutual exchange highlights the depth and importance of the alliance, making any potential pause in intelligence sharing impactful for both nations.

Wider Implications for Intelligence Alliances

The discussion extends to the broader implications of pausing intelligence sharing on other alliances, particularly within the Five Eyes intelligence network. Corera speculates:

"If things get really transactional, we might be looking at some others... the Canadian US one is like at the moment or some of the others in five eyes." (25:03)

McCloskey expresses concern that even long-standing and trusted relationships could be vulnerable to political shifts, potentially destabilizing international intelligence cooperation.

Future Outlook and Ethical Considerations

As the episode concludes, the hosts reflect on the ethical dimensions of intelligence partnerships. Campbell muses about the personal impact on intelligence officers who build genuine relationships:

"Once the Russians are gone, that support basically goes away... Officers who have served in Kyiv and who have spent a lot of time with Ukrainians over the past decade, probably feeling, looking at this, a real sense of shock and betrayal." (22:33)

Corera emphasizes the real-life consequences for Ukrainian operatives relying on U.S. intelligence support, underscoring the human element behind geopolitical maneuvers.

Conclusion

Episode 26 of The Rest Is Classified provides a nuanced exploration of the precarious state of U.S.-Ukraine intelligence relations amidst shifting political landscapes. Through detailed analysis and informed commentary, David McCloskey and Gordon Corera shed light on the complexities of intelligence sharing, its critical role in Ukraine's defense, and the broader ramifications of political decisions on international security alliances.

Notable Quotes

• Gordon Corera (03:31):
  “I'm looking at it now in quite kind of vague terms that there's a pause on military and intelligence support to Ukraine... until President Trump feels that President Zelensky of Ukraine sort of committed himself to the sort of peace process that Trump himself is trying to sort of facilitate and broker.”

• David McCloskey (07:24):
  "These things that only the US can basically do, that no other country, including the UK actually has the kind of technical collection capabilities the US has..."

• Gordon Corera (15:44):
  "Security relationships are always subordinate to the politics. They can be used... the political masters decide the extent of the sharing, the extent of the relationship, what the red lines are."

• Alistair Campbell (19:09):
  "The information the Ukrainians have provided is worth billions and would say that the liaison relationship with the Ukrainians and with the... military intelligence piece of their security apparatus in particular is like second only to the liaison relationship with the Brits."

Stay Tuned

In upcoming episodes, McCloskey and Corera plan to:

• Deep Dive into the Ukraine Conflict:
  A series exploring the intelligence dynamics and the events leading up to recent escalations.

• Atomic Spy Klaus Fuchs:
  An exploration of espionage related to atomic secrets, inspired by the movie Oppenheimer.

Listeners are encouraged to subscribe to The Rest Is Classified on their preferred podcast platforms to stay informed on these critical topics.

For more information, questions, or feedback, listeners can reach out to the hosts at restisclassified@GoalHanger.com.