The Rest Is Classified: Episode 31 – "Putin’s War: The Secret Plot to Invade Ukraine"

Hosts:

• David McCloskey – Former CIA analyst turned spy novelist
• Gordon Corera – Veteran security correspondent

Release Date: March 24, 2025

Introduction

In the premiere episode of "Putin’s War: The Secret Plot to Invade Ukraine," hosts David McCloskey and Gordon Corera delve deep into the intelligence landscape that preceded Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. They explore the intricate web of intelligence gathering, geopolitical motivations, and the critical decisions made by Western powers in response to the evolving threat.

Setting the Stage: Joe Biden’s Warning

The episode opens with a dramatized statement attributed to then-President Joe Biden, highlighting the imminent threat of a Russian military offensive against Ukraine. This segment sets the tone for the discussion, emphasizing the gravity of the situation as perceived by Western intelligence agencies.

Notable Quote:

"We still believe that Russia is poised to go much further in launching a massive military attack against Ukraine... There is no justification. Further Russian assault into Ukraine remains a severe threat in the days ahead."
— Joe Biden (00:31)

David McCloskey clarifies that this was a fictional portrayal intended to encapsulate Biden's sentiments, transitioning smoothly into a discussion of the actual intelligence assessments that shaped the West's understanding of Russia's intentions.

The Intelligence Picture: October 2021 Briefing

David McCloskey and Gordon Corera recount a pivotal meeting in the Oval Office in October 2021, where President Biden and his top officials were briefed on intelligence indicating a planned Russian invasion of Ukraine. The session featured detailed operational intelligence suggesting a multifaceted and ambitious military campaign by Russia.

Key Points:

• High Confidence Intelligence: Intelligence indicated a full-scale invasion aiming to overthrow the Ukrainian government and establish a puppet regime in Kyiv.
• Historical Parallels: Comparisons were drawn to the Soviet Union’s suppression of the Prague Spring in 1968, underscoring the potential scale and ambition of Russia’s plans.
• Skepticism Within Intelligence: Despite mounting evidence, there was internal skepticism about the feasibility of such an invasion, given Ukraine's size and resilience.

Notable Quotes:

"The intelligence has been watching this picture evolve over the last couple of months, and they've become very confident about it."
— Gordon Corera (07:04)

"President Biden seems like he is genuinely shocked by this. Is this for real? Do you think this is for real?"
— Joe Biden (05:24)

Sources of Intelligence

The hosts discuss the multifaceted nature of the intelligence that led to the high-confidence assessment of Russia’s intentions. They consider various sources, including:

• Satellite Imagery: Observations of troop movements and logistical preparations on the Ukrainian border.
• Intercepted Communications: Potential surveillance of Russian military communications planning the invasion.
• Human Intelligence (HUMINT): Insights from defectors or insiders within the Russian military or government circles.

Notable Quote:

"It's multiple sources. There's satellite imagery, there are intercepts, there's human sources."
— Gordon Corera (09:15)

Vladimir Putin’s Motivations and Mindset

A significant portion of the episode explores Putin’s historical and personal motivations for invading Ukraine. The discussion delves into:

• Historical Claims: Putin's narrative that Russians and Ukrainians are one people, aiming to reassert Russian dominance over Ukraine.
• Response to Western Alignment: The shift of Ukraine towards Europe and away from Russian influence, perceived as a direct threat by Putin.
• Putin’s Ambition and Paranoia: Insights into how Putin’s isolation during the COVID-19 lockdown may have exacerbated his ambitions and paranoia, leading to the decision to invade.

Notable Quotes:

"He thinks Ukraine is subservient to Russia... others have sought to tear them apart, particularly Western forces."
— Gordon Corera (14:03)

"Vladimir Putin is basically sitting alone behind long tables, coming to deeply historical... conclusions about the non-existence of the gigantic Texas sized country sitting next to him."
— Joe Biden (15:50)

Diplomatic Efforts and CIA Involvement

The episode details the diplomatic maneuvers undertaken by the United States to deter Russia from invading Ukraine, highlighting the crucial role of CIA Director Bill Burns. The discussion covers:

• Secret Mission to Moscow: Burns's meeting with Nikolai Patrushev and other senior Russian intelligence officials to deliver President Biden’s message of deterrence.
• Challenges in Communication: The interactions reveal Putin’s dismissive attitude and the challenges in conveying the seriousness of the intelligence assessments.
• Deterrence Strategies: The strategies considered to dissuade Putin, including economic sanctions and cutting Russia off from the Global SWIFT banking system.

Notable Quotes:

"Bill Burns, who you know a bit, I guess I do, yes."
— Joe Biden (27:02)

"He explains, Russia may not be as powerful as the US Economically, but military had been modernized, and it was a match for America."
— Nikolai Patrushev (34:08)

Psychological Profile of Putin

The hosts analyze the psychological factors influencing Putin’s decision-making, discussing:

• Isolation and Legacy Concerns: Putin’s desire to cement his legacy as a transformative leader akin to Peter the Great, expanding Russia’s influence.
• Paranoia and Distrust: Anecdotes from John Sullivan’s memoir about Putin's paranoid beliefs, such as the fear of being attacked by an American warship in the Black Sea.
• Groupthink and Intelligence Failures: How internal groupthink within Russian intelligence may have led to overconfidence and flawed assessments of Western responses.

Notable Quotes:

"It suggests a man who is paranoid, basically, about people out to get him."
— Gordon Corera (37:19)

"Anybody could decide to invade Ukraine. If you're isolated enough, you start to think it's a good idea."
— Joe Biden (43:39)

US Strategic Dilemmas and Decision-Making

The hosts discuss the strategic dilemmas faced by the US in responding to the intelligence assessments, weighing the risks of deterrence versus direct military support for Ukraine.

Key Points:

• Avoiding Escalation: President Biden’s reluctance to enter into a direct military confrontation with Russia to prevent the possibility of World War III.
• Economic Sanctions as Leverage: Utilizing sanctions to pressure Russia economically without engaging in military action.
• Credibility of Deterrence: Debating whether the US’s threats of severe economic consequences were sufficient to deter Putin or if more assertive measures were necessary.

Notable Quote:

"The only thing which might have dissuaded him is the thing that Biden took off the table, which is the threat of war, that the US would go in to defend Ukraine itself if Russia attacked it."
— Gordon Corera (40:23)

Conclusion and Forward Look

The episode wraps up with an acknowledgment of the complex interplay between intelligence, diplomacy, and geopolitical strategy that characterized the lead-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The hosts hint at future episodes that will explore how Western intelligence and military preparations evolved in response to the emerging threat.

Notable Quote:

"We will look at what the CIA, what the West does to not just attempt to dissuade Putin, but to prepare Ukraine and others for a war."
— Gordon Corera (44:05)

Insights and Takeaways

• Importance of Reliable Intelligence: The episode underscores how crucial accurate and actionable intelligence is in preempting and deterring military aggression.
• Psychological Factors in Leadership: Understanding the personal motivations and psychological profiles of leaders like Putin can provide deeper insights into their geopolitical strategies.
• Strategic Ambiguity vs. Clear Deterrence: The delicate balance between avoiding escalation and providing clear signals of disapproval and potential consequences is a recurring theme in international diplomacy.

Final Thoughts

"Putin’s War: The Secret Plot to Invade Ukraine" offers a captivating exploration of the behind-the-scenes intelligence and decision-making processes that shaped one of the most significant geopolitical events of the early 21st century. Through expert analysis and engaging storytelling, McCloskey and Corera provide listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the factors that led to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing implications for global security.

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