The Rest Is Classified: Episode 4 - How Security Services Will React To The Fall Of Assad

Hosts: David McClaskey & Gordon Corera
Release Date: December 10, 2024

1. Introduction to the Emergency Pod

In this special emergency episode of The Rest Is Classified, hosts David McClaskey, a former CIA analyst turned spy novelist, and Gordon Corera, a veteran security correspondent, delve into the rapid and unexpected downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Recorded on the evening of Monday, December 9th, the episode breaks from the regular schedule to analyze the unfolding events in Syria and their global implications.

2. Recap of Syria’s Turbulent History

Gordon begins by outlining Syria's recent history, highlighting the Assad family's six-decade-long rule, the Arab Spring protests of 2011, and the subsequent civil war marked by the use of chemical weapons by the regime. Despite Western hesitation, Russia intervened to support Assad, leading to a seemingly frozen conflict—until the pivotal events that began on November 27th catalyzed a swift reversal of power.

Gordon Corera [01:23]: "We're recording this on the evening of Monday, 9th of December, because we just felt that there was some things we had to convey..."

3. David’s Personal Experience and Emotions

David shares his firsthand experience as a CIA analyst stationed in Damascus before the civil war erupted. He recounts the moment Assad's regime began to crumble, expressing a complex mix of emotions—from profound joy at witnessing the fall of a tyrannical leader to apprehension about the ensuing chaos.

David McClaskey [03:15]: "I felt two emotions... joy at watching a regime that is murderous, psychopathic... enter sort of the dustbin of history... and fear at what's coming next..."

4. Analysis of Assad’s Regime: Then and Now

David provides an in-depth analysis of Assad's security apparatus, detailing the four principal intelligence services that maintained control through surveillance and repression. He explains how the regime's reliance on these services became its Achilles' heel, especially as corruption and loss of morale eroded their effectiveness over 15 years.

David McClaskey [08:20]: "The Assad regime had a highly centralized system... but over the past almost 15 years, changes have led to its collapse."

5. The Role and Future of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS)

A significant portion of the discussion centers on Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), the primary opposition group that led the charge against Assad. David examines HTS's transformation from an Al-Qaeda affiliate to a governing entity in northwestern Syria, raising questions about their intentions and the potential security threats they pose.

Gordon Corera [23:42]: "They will be worried, won't they, about this group HTS?... Isht. [HTS]... can we trust them? Can we work with them?"

David McClaskey [29:11]: "What does he [Jelani, head of HTS] really believe?... HTS has a technocratic government in Idlib called the Syrian Salvation Government."

6. Geopolitical Implications: Russia and Iran’s Responses

The hosts discuss the broader geopolitical fallout from Assad's fall, particularly the implications for Russia and Iran, Assad's staunch allies. They explore how Russia's strategic interests in Syria, such as naval and air bases, might be jeopardized and the potential shifts in regional power dynamics.

Gordon Corera [31:18]: "It's a blow to Iran and Russia, for whom Assad had been their ally... They might be able to salvage something, but it's hard to see it as anything else."

David McClaskey [32:04]: "Russia is keen to maintain their naval facilities on the Syrian coast of Tartus... they might extract a price to allow it to continue."

7. Security Concerns and Potential for Chaos

David and Gordon express concerns about the possible resurgence of ISIS and other extremist groups in the power vacuum left by Assad's departure. They highlight the precarious situation of thousands of ISIS prisoners in camps managed by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the risks posed if U.S. troops withdraw.

Gordon Corera [25:28]: "There are worries about the fallout... ISIS fighters, some of them hardened, could pose a counterterrorism threat."

David McClaskey [26:21]: "There are Islamic State cells operating in central Syria... a vacuum in which they could grow."

8. Comparisons to the Fall of Other Regimes

Drawing parallels to the rapid collapse of the Afghan government and the chaotic evacuation from Kabul Airport in 2021, the hosts underscore the unpredictability and speed with which Assad's regime fell. They ponder the lessons that intelligence agencies might draw from these swift regime changes.

Gordon Corera [15:43]: "It still feels remarkable how fast it collapsed... you kept on thinking... but there wasn't anyone willing to fight for them."

9. The Future of Syria and the Role of Syrians

In concluding remarks, David emphasizes the paramount role of the Syrian populace in shaping their nation's future. He urges listeners to prioritize the voices and experiences of ordinary Syrians over geopolitical narratives.

David McClaskey [35:03]: "Encourage everybody to prioritize listening to those voices... in the coming days and weeks as we all try to make sense of this and what's coming."

10. Final Thoughts and Teaser for Upcoming Episodes

The episode wraps up with a reflection on the ongoing situation and a teaser for the next installment, which will continue the narrative of the CIA's involvement in Afghanistan.

Gordon Corera [35:59]: "We'll be back Wednesday... the second half of our story of the CIA in Afghanistan..."

Notable Quotes

• Gordon Corera [01:23]: "This is a special emergency pod... looking at those really amazing events in Syria in the last few days."

• David McClaskey [03:15]: "Joy at watching a regime that is murderous, psychopathic... and fear at what's coming next."

• Gordon Corera [23:42]: "MI6 will be wanting to understand it... Is HTS dangerous? Can we trust them?"

• David McClaskey [29:11]: "HTS has not proven to be a Jeffersonian Democrat... there are a lot of questions."

Conclusion

This episode of The Rest Is Classified provides a comprehensive and nuanced exploration of the sudden downfall of Bashar al-Assad, the internal dynamics of the Syrian regime, and the uncertain future that awaits the nation. Through expert analysis and firsthand insights, hosts David McClaskey and Gordon Corera shed light on the intricate web of factors influencing Syria's present and future, making it an essential listen for anyone interested in espionage, security services, and Middle Eastern geopolitics.