55. Bin Laden vs the CIA: The Hunt for the World's Most Wanted (Ep 5)

Summary

Episode Summary: "Bin Laden vs the CIA: The Hunt for the World's Most Wanted (Ep 5)"

Introduction

In Episode 55 of The Rest Is Classified, titled "Bin Laden vs the CIA: The Hunt for the World's Most Wanted," hosts David McCloskey and Gordon Carrera delve deep into the intricate and prolonged pursuit of Osama bin Laden by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Released on June 15, 2025, this episode explores the missed opportunities, strategic maneuvers, and relentless efforts that spanned nearly a decade following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Background: The Aftermath of 9/11 and Tora Bora

The episode opens by setting the stage in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. Bin Laden's supposed demise during the Battle of Tora Bora in December 2001 was a significant blow to Al Qaeda. However, as McCloskey notes, "he basically disappears, doesn't he? I mean, it's crazy, but he's just gone" (02:40). This disappearance transformed the manhunt into a complex detective saga, akin to tracking a serial killer with a case that seemed cold.

The Evolution of the CIA’s Counterterrorism Efforts

Post-9/11, the CIA's Counterterrorism Center (CTC) underwent a massive transformation. Initially focused on threats like Russian espionage, the CTC saw its staffing multiply by five to ten times to address the burgeoning counterterrorism demands (07:34). McCloskey emphasizes, "CTC becomes the place to be for prestige and promotions inside CIA in those years" (08:22). This expansion introduced new roles, such as "Targeters," who meticulously analyzed digital footprints to trace bin Laden's elusive movements.

Key Leads: The Role of Couriers in the Hunt

A pivotal breakthrough in the hunt was the identification of Abu Ahmed Al Kuwaiti, a trusted courier for bin Laden. Through a series of interrogations, notably involving Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (KSM), Al Qaeda's mastermind behind 9/11, the CIA gleaned fragmented information about Abu Ahmed's role (22:38). Despite the use of controversial enhanced interrogation techniques, including waterboarding, Carrera acknowledges the debate surrounding their efficacy: "It's impossible to know... whether it was needed to happen" (26:20).

Tracking the Courier: From Alias to Concrete Leads

By 2010, the CIA had unraveled Abu Ahmed's true identity as Ibrahim Said Ahmed. Continuous surveillance of his family’s phones revealed sporadic communications with Pakistan's Peshawar region. A critical intercepted phone call in 2010 indicated his return to Al Qaeda activities, prompting the CIA to intensify surveillance (34:08). This meticulous tracking culminated in identifying a white Suzuki PoHar vehicle associated with Abu Ahmed (38:19).

Surveillance and the Abbottabad Compound

The intelligence led the CIA to Abbottabad, Pakistan, where they identified a 38,000-square-foot compound exhibiting unusual security measures—reflective windows, high walls, and absent local phone or internet services (39:54). McCloskey recounts, "The composition of the family is consistent with what was known about Osama bin Laden's immediate family" (45:10), strengthening the suspicion that bin Laden resided there.

Decision-Making: Weighing the Options

By spring 2011, after extensive deliberations within the National Security Council, President Obama faced critical decisions. The options ranged from large-scale bombing missions with high collateral damage to precision-targeted special operations raids. McCloskey highlights the complexity of the decision: "You could drop a few 2,000 pound bombs on the target... but you'd have absolutely no guarantees that you get bin Laden" (48:12). Ultimately, the risks of both action and inaction were meticulously weighed, leading to the approval of a special operations raid despite uncertainties.

Conclusion: Setting the Stage for the Operation

The episode concludes by acknowledging that while the intelligence was largely circumstantial, it represented the most substantial lead the CIA had on bin Laden’s whereabouts in a decade. McCloskey and Carrera reflect on the high-stakes environment and the ultimate decision to proceed with the raid, setting the stage for the subsequent episode which details the execution and ramifications of the operation.

Notable Quotes

• David McCloskey (02:40): "And then, David, he basically disappears, doesn't he? I mean, it's crazy, but he's just gone."

• Gordon Carrera (07:34): "Gordon, you're right and the CIA at this point doesn't know much about Abu Ahmed Al Kuwaiti other than he is important or was important."

• David McCloskey (08:22): "CTC becomes the place to be for prestige and promotions inside CIA in those years."

• Gordon Carrera (26:20): "I would say that number one, the interrogations in which enhanced interrogation techniques were used, were critical to building the map of Al Qaeda that was used to determine the importance of the courier and ultimately to find bin Laden."

• Unknown Speaker (26:49): "There is a very, very controversial subject of which it is hard, actually, I think, to get a definitive answer about whether it was needed to happen."

• Gordon Carrera (34:08): "This phone is being flipped on in settled areas and cities and then will otherwise be off."

• David McCloskey (45:10): "The composition of the family is consistent with what was known about Osama bin Laden's immediate family."

• Gordon Carrera (48:12): "You could drop a few 2,000 pound bombs on the target... but you'd have absolutely no guarantees that you get bin Laden."

Final Thoughts

Episode 55 provides a comprehensive and nuanced exploration of the CIA's prolonged and arduous quest to locate Osama bin Laden. Through detailed discussions, enhanced with direct quotes from key contributors, listeners gain an in-depth understanding of the strategic challenges, ethical dilemmas, and relentless determination that characterized this high-stakes intelligence operation. As McCloskey and Carrera prepare listeners for the next installment, the stage is set for an in-depth look at the culmination of years of clandestine efforts.

Transcript

[David McCloskey]

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[Gordon Carrera]

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[Unknown]

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What is Dadication?

The thing that drives me every day as a dad is Dariana. We call him Day Date for short. Every day he's hungry for something, whether it's attention, affection, knowledge. And there's this huge responsibility in making sure that when he's no longer under my wing that he's a good person. I want him to be able to sit back one day and go, we worked together. We did a good job.

That's dedication. Find out [e-mail], brought to you by the U.S. department of Health and Human Services and the Ad Council o Sun Sufficed. Say that I am full of grief and sighs. What can I say if we are living in a world of laziness and discontent? What can I say to a world that is blind in both sight and perception? Pardon me, my son, but I can only see a very steep path ahead. A decade has gone by in vagrancy and travel, and here we are in our tragedy. Security is gone, but danger remains. It is a world of crimes in which children are slaughtered like cows. For how long will real men be in short supply? Action must somehow be done to ward off harm. I have sworn by God Almighty to fight the infidel. Well, welcome to the Rest is classified. I'm Gordon Carrera.

[David McCloskey]

And I'm David McCloskey.

[Unknown]

And that was Osama bin Laden writing in verse to one of his sons sometime around 2002 about life on the run and that is where we are picking up the story of Osama bin Laden and the CIA, this time with the aftermath of those terrible attacks on September 11, 2001. The opportunity perhaps to kill or capture Osama bin Laden at last at Tora Bora, missed. And him escaping over the border. And then, David, he basically disappears, doesn't he? I mean, it's crazy, but he's just gone. And I mean, there are glimpses of him in various places we might come to, but it's going to turn into, to a manhunt more like a detective novel really, rather than a counterterrorist mission trying to find like a killer who's disappeared and where the case is cold.

[David McCloskey]

Listeners for this episode in particular should.

[Gordon Carrera]

Think about this as paralleling exactly a sort of detectives hunt for a serial.

[David McCloskey]

Killer along a trail that's gone totally cold. Right?

[Gordon Carrera]

Because that is what this becomes. We have gone from the Osama bin.

[David McCloskey]

Laden of the late 90s, declaring war.

[Gordon Carrera]

On the United States, the CIA coming up with a variety of sometimes quite.

[David McCloskey]

Audacious plans to try to kidnap him, Cruise missile strikes, 9, 11. And then all of a sudden he.

[Gordon Carrera]

Is just after this massive bombardment and.

[David McCloskey]

Battle at Tora Bora, he is just.

[Gordon Carrera]

Kind of poof, vanished. And we should say also note that.

[David McCloskey]

Listeners who are wondering how we have obtained such intimate verse from Osama bin.

[Gordon Carrera]

Laden should go and check out Peter Bergen's great book, the Osama bin Laden I Know, which has a sort of.

[David McCloskey]

Oral history and testimonies of people who.

[Gordon Carrera]

Knew bin Laden talking about him, which.

[David McCloskey]

Is why I'm able to subject Gordon.

[Gordon Carrera]

To reading some such terrible prose, I think. Also Gordon listeners will of course be.

[David McCloskey]

Aware that the story now takes us.

[Gordon Carrera]

Into the world of Zero Dark Thirty.

[David McCloskey]

The sort of Oscar winning movie where half of the movie is the Raid. But the part we're going to talk about today is almost 10 years of.

[Gordon Carrera]

Just absolutely painstaking and backbreaking work that.

[David McCloskey]

Went into actually finding where Osama bin Laden was hiding.

[Gordon Carrera]

So let's go to Tora Bora, though.

[David McCloskey]

In the immediate aftermath where we left.

[Gordon Carrera]

Off last time, Al Qaeda is badly.

[David McCloskey]

Damaged as an organization as it sort.

[Gordon Carrera]

Of limps away from this fight in the caves at Tora Bora.

[David McCloskey]

Its sanctuary in Afghanistan is gone. Its operatives are scattered. They're actually internal. Al Qaeda estimates around this point that suggest maybe 1600 of its 1900 or so fighters in Afghanistan were either killed.

[Gordon Carrera]

Or captured, which is a pretty massive.

[David McCloskey]

Blow to the organization. Some flee to Iran, some go to the unsettled areas of Pakistan and the tribal areas. Some hide in its cities, places like Karachi.

[Gordon Carrera]

But Al Qaeda is alive and it is surviving both as an idea and.

[David McCloskey]

As this now very clandestine terrorist organization, in part because its leader, bin Laden.

[Gordon Carrera]

Seems to have evaded the US and remains not only its figurehead.

[David McCloskey]

I think this was assumed for some.

[Gordon Carrera]

Time, but a micromanager of Al Qaeda through impersonal means.

[Unknown]

That's right. So Al Qaeda becomes an idea, doesn't it? At this point, it kind of meticizes, and you get franchises and people adhering to the idea ideology of Al Qaeda and swearing allegiance to it, who have very little contact. But you do still have this core which remains. And a few go into Iran, I think, and they're actually kind of under a form of house arrest in Iran. But the bulk seem to go into the tribal areas of Pakistan, which is a wild place. I've flown over it and been in it briefly, courtesy of the Pakistani military at various moments. But the Pakistani state itself has very little control over this territory, which borders along Afghanistan. And where tribal loyalties are paramount, really, rather than loyalty to the state, where the state and the Pakistani state has very little kind of presence and reach, and where it's frankly very difficult to find anyone. And so Al Qaeda operatives are, in some cases, they're in the cities, and some of them will be found in the cities, but also some, it's thought, are in these tribal areas. And the CIA is now suddenly growing and building up, isn't it, to try and take on this group and to try and track every lead after having missed those opportunities beforehand. It's now massively mushrooming in size, and yet the pickings are pretty slim in terms of finding bin Laden in the Al Qaeda senior leadership.

[David McCloskey]

It is worth a note just to.

[Gordon Carrera]

Contrast how much the CIA's Counterterrorism center.

[David McCloskey]

Changes in these first few years relative to what it was in the mid-90s.

[Gordon Carrera]

Because CTC probably grows by 5 to.

[David McCloskey]

10 times in the first few years after 9, 11 from a staffing standpoint.

[Gordon Carrera]

I mean, I had friends who were pulled off other targets, right, who had.

[David McCloskey]

Been targeting Russians their entire career. Had one colleague who had spent basically.

[Gordon Carrera]

His entire CIA career in kind of Central and Eastern Europe who said, you.

[David McCloskey]

Know, I was a Russian hunter, and.

[Gordon Carrera]

Then, boom, next day I'm hunting a.

[David McCloskey]

Booger eater in the mountains. And so you have a whole bunch.

[Gordon Carrera]

Of people who just get shoved over to counterterrorism stuff.

[David McCloskey]

CTC becomes the place to be for prestige and promotions inside CIA in those years.

[Gordon Carrera]

Again, stark contrast to the 1990s.

[David McCloskey]

Right.

[Gordon Carrera]

A complete about face. And the CIA starts to get a lot better at what I would call like a targeting mission.

[David McCloskey]

Right. So there's now software in this period that helps to map connections between members of a network to show these linkages between phones, between IP addresses. There's actually a new job title created.

[Gordon Carrera]

At CIA called Targeter, a role that is going to be essential in this.

[David McCloskey]

Hunt for Osama bin Laden.

[Gordon Carrera]

And these are kind of analysts who.

[David McCloskey]

Basically vacuum up every shred of available digital dust on somebody like Osama bin.

[Gordon Carrera]

Laden or Al Qaeda senior leadership pings.

[David McCloskey]

On phone towers, bank transactions, like how.

[Gordon Carrera]

Do you in this case find somebody? How do you find people who don't.

[David McCloskey]

Want to be found? And there are some early successes against.

[Gordon Carrera]

Al Qaeda in the kind of first few years after 9 11, linking together.

[David McCloskey]

Cooperation in some cases with the Pakistanis, with these new ways of targeting people. And eventually I think you have a lot of Al Qaeda leaders who are faced with a trade off, which is do you stay in the cities where you can plan attacks and communicate and eventually probably get captured by the CIA.

[Gordon Carrera]

Or do you go totally off the grid and just disconnect from anything digital.

[David McCloskey]

That the CIA might use to eventually hunt you down?

[Unknown]

Yeah. And so Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who is the kind of mastermind, as he's often described, of 9 11, he gets captured, doesn't he, in one of the cities. And the assumption is Osama bin Laden is in a cave somewhere. That's what people think, that's what everyone assumes, that he must be somewhere in a cave in the mountains, completely off the grid, unlike these others. And that's the reason why he's not being found. And you get $25 million reward. The hope is that might lead to something. And there's all these tiny sightings and bits and pieces, but nothing really substantial for years.

[Gordon Carrera]

Well, and we should note that the cave idea, it's not something that anyone at the CIA puts any stock in.

[David McCloskey]

At all much after Tora Bora.

[Gordon Carrera]

I mean, he's running Al Qaeda.

[David McCloskey]

This will be a theme of this.

[Gordon Carrera]

Period is that Osama bin Laden, he is a micromanager, okay? And, and he is involved in plotting.

[David McCloskey]

He'S involved in running the organization.

[Gordon Carrera]

He's not kind of sitting back and.

[David McCloskey]

Letting others do this.

[Gordon Carrera]

So he's not in a cave. But there also aren't any leads to.

[David McCloskey]

Really suggest where he might be.

[Gordon Carrera]

And you mentioned the $25 million reward, right, Gordon? So that obviously creates incredible incentive in an intelligence collection environment where fabricators Fantasists, Right.

[David McCloskey]

Anyone's going to want to put information.

[Gordon Carrera]

Into that system in the deranged hopes that they might get 25 mil out of the deal.

[Unknown]

Yeah. You reminded me that I once interviewed someone who pitched up in Pakistan, an American convinced that he was going to find bin Laden, and he pitched up with a sword and, like, a pair of binoculars, and that's it. And I was like, well, you know, CIA, US Government. He's like, I'm going to go below the radar.

[David McCloskey]

Smart.

[Unknown]

It was smart. Yeah. Below the radar with a sword. But, you know, it was full of kind of. There was that element of people kind of fantasists, as you say, and, you know, kind of false leads. And, I mean, they were called Where's Waldo? Missions, weren't they? Because. Yeah, because there'd be a tiny sighting, like, tall guy with a beard might be bin Laden. Chase it down, and you'd have, like, the entire resources of the CIA kind of descend for a moment on chasing some tall guy with a beard who'd, of course, turn out not to be bin Laden.

[David McCloskey]

Well, and you have to run everything down in this environment, too, right?

[Gordon Carrera]

And so the CIA folks who are involved in the hunt start to call.

[David McCloskey]

These Elvis sightings, which then lead to Where's Waldo? Missions.

[Gordon Carrera]

And so there's a great. A great story on this, which comes.

[David McCloskey]

Out of a city in Pakistan where one of our people there is driving. They're taking some video from the back.

[Gordon Carrera]

Of the vehicle, and they're not hunting for bin Laden, but they pan over.

[David McCloskey]

And they actually get some video of.

[Gordon Carrera]

A guy in another car who. Who looks like Osama bin Laden, and.

[David McCloskey]

They can't be sure it's not him.

[Gordon Carrera]

And so they write up the cable.

[David McCloskey]

And send it in, and eventually the deputy chief of station in Islamabad actually ends up, we got to look into this, right?

[Gordon Carrera]

Then somebody in D.C. tells the chief.

[David McCloskey]

Of ISI, Pakistan's intelligence service, about this lead.

[Gordon Carrera]

And then the Pakistanis, in about a.

[David McCloskey]

Couple of days, figure out that this guy is actually a lumber cutter with.

[Gordon Carrera]

A business in Afghanistan, right? And the Pakistanis take pictures of him, send it to DC and headquarters is like, okay, well, maybe it's a body double, right? I mean, so then you. You kind of multiply that by hundreds.

[David McCloskey]

If not thousands, right? Where you end up going down this.

[Gordon Carrera]

Rabbit hole to try to disconfirm that this isn't bin Laden or to confirm.

[David McCloskey]

That this crazy lead you got from a guy who's parked up in a lawn chair with the sword, that it's actually Crazy.

[Unknown]

I remember it so well because the idea that this one man could evade the entire US military and intelligence community for years does start to become a kind of running sore. I mean, it becomes a really awkward question for the US really kind of difficult, I think, to say, this guy has inflicted this terrible attack and you cannot find him. It's a question which will come up again and again to U.S. officials. Why have you not got him? The reality, of course, it is if you really know what you're doing, it is possible to hide, particularly in a country like Pakistan. But the trail does go cold. So it is interesting to try and understand what do you do if you're in that situation, if you're the CIA, I mean, how do you find someone who wants to stay hidden? I mean, it's not easy. If someone is capable and smart and also is living in a kind of place where they understand the territory and they potentially have sympathetic people around them, it is not easy. But it still feels like it took a long time.

[Gordon Carrera]

It's probably worth setting up a bit.

[David McCloskey]

The unit that's leading the hunt for bin Laden. The name, as with any good bureaucracy, changes constantly. It does sit inside CIA's Counterterrorism Center.

[Gordon Carrera]

It's full of analysts, targeters. Again, similar to the Mike Scheuer, you.

[David McCloskey]

Know, Manson family of the 1990s. There are lots of women involved.

[Gordon Carrera]

It is a bureaucratic effort, but I.

[David McCloskey]

Think the number of people who are really doing the hunting, it's actually not that large, right? Maybe a few dozen that are really.

[Gordon Carrera]

Focused on Osama bin Laden.

[David McCloskey]

It is a tight knit, very focused.

[Gordon Carrera]

Group inside the Counterterrorism Center. And they put together assessments in the. The first couple years after September 11th.

[David McCloskey]

To really try to help the CIA come up with a way to dismiss.

[Gordon Carrera]

Those Elvis sightings and build a collection plan to get us closer to finding Osama bin Laden. And there is an understanding, I think.

[David McCloskey]

Inside the CIA, at least at the.

[Gordon Carrera]

Working level, the people doing the hunt.

[David McCloskey]

That there's not going to be a magic bullet.

[Gordon Carrera]

There's not going to be a detainee.

[David McCloskey]

Who'S going to point to a specific location. The Pakistanis are not going to give us the keys to the kingdom of. Osama bin Laden is not speaking on phones. He is not using computers. There is not going to be SIGINT signals intelligence that allows us to geolocate him. So it is going to be a painstaking and slow process. And one of the things this team.

[Gordon Carrera]

Does is they study other manhunts and the learning.

[David McCloskey]

Here I think is really interesting because you look at, so Adolf Eichmann, Nazi fugitive.

[Gordon Carrera]

Yeah, Nazi fugitive captured by the Israelis in Argentina. That was a 15 year hunt. He's eventually betrayed by his son, who's.

[David McCloskey]

Bragging to his girlfriend's dad about his own dad's Nazi past. Right. The CIA's lesson from this, it can.

[Gordon Carrera]

Take a long time and family members.

[David McCloskey]

Can sometimes be key.

[Gordon Carrera]

Pablo Escobar, you know, the CIA and.

[David McCloskey]

The Colombians knew he was in Medellin.

[Gordon Carrera]

But it still took two years. He's given away by talking on the.

[David McCloskey]

Phone for 16 minutes with his son.

[Gordon Carrera]

And then he's geolocated the Unabomber.

[David McCloskey]

The hunt for The Unabomber took 17 years.

[Gordon Carrera]

The Atlanta Olympic Games bomber, Eric Rudolph.

[David McCloskey]

It took five years. And he was in the States.

[Gordon Carrera]

And so I think from these kind of learnings, the CIA figures, look, family.

[David McCloskey]

And close associates are key.

[Gordon Carrera]

Osama bin Laden's probably not on the phone and actually he hasn't been. We talked in one of our earlier episodes about him being ditching his satellite phone. Right. He probably hasn't been talking much on.

[David McCloskey]

The phone since the late 90s.

[Gordon Carrera]

And this is going to take a very long time. So one weakness that comes out of.

[David McCloskey]

This analysis or one, one kind of vector into bin Laden is his family. Right. And of course, as I have been.

[Gordon Carrera]

Talking about extensively on this podcast, now.

[Unknown]

I understand why you always want to talk about his wives and children. Now at last it becomes clear he's.

[Gordon Carrera]

A big family man.

[David McCloskey]

Nothing. You know, Osama bin Laden loves terrorism, the outdoors and his family.

[Gordon Carrera]

And he's got maybe two wives with.

[David McCloskey]

Him at this point, but the family connections don't really lead anywhere. Another way in the CIA figures might be his communications with other senior leaders in Al Qaeda. But again, the CIA is watching these really, really closely. So closely, in fact, that the kind.

[Gordon Carrera]

Of number three, kind of chief operator in Al Qaeda, that position turns over like every six months because the CIA starts killing them because they're the people.

[Unknown]

Who are actually interfacing with the outside world to carry out plans. So it was always a famous thing that you have bin Laden, Zawahiri, he's number two. And the number three was the kind of operational guy who was, obviously, because he's the operational guy, contacting terrorists around the world. And for that reason he gets killed. They're constantly getting killed because they are the ones who are in contact with people, but bin Laden isn't. I remember another one was the media, wasn't it? Because bin Laden just occasionally would pop up and do videos. And you know, I remember having to report on these and I mean, they were big news at the time. I mean, they were big news because you would have heard nothing from Bin Laden for a year or two years or something. And then there would be either his voice on a tape or sometimes an actual video of him in which he was seen, you know, walking somewhere in the mountains or apparently in a cave and issuing some kind of blood curdling threat. We in the media would analyze them endlessly and we'd get people to analyze them and kind of go, well, kind of, can you tell what kind of mountains there are? I'm guessing at the CIA they probably did that 10 times more to try and see if there are any clues from those appearances. There's anything you can get from them.

[Gordon Carrera]

There's great stories of the agency calling.

[David McCloskey]

In, in one case a German ornithologist. There's a bird that's heard chirping in the, in the background of one of these videos.

[Gordon Carrera]

And so this ornithologist gets called in to determine what species of bird it.

[David McCloskey]

Is and where does that bird live. They call in geologists to analyze rocks that might appear behind him.

[Gordon Carrera]

And it's fair to say that no.

[David McCloskey]

Useful leads came out of any of the video or propaganda analysis in those years.

[Gordon Carrera]

But you think about the videos, right?

[David McCloskey]

One thing about them is that if he's recording them, there has to be a way of getting those videos out, right?

[Gordon Carrera]

And it might go through a daisy chain of individuals passing it off until.

[David McCloskey]

It gets to Al Jazeera or something.

[Gordon Carrera]

Like that, but they're moving from where he is to an endpoint.

[David McCloskey]

And you know, we mentioned that he's a micromanager, right? He's not as involved in the day to day of the organization as that number three, that kind of war and operational chief who's getting killed every few months.

[Gordon Carrera]

But he still wants to run Al Qaeda.

[Unknown]

He can't let go, can he?

[David McCloskey]

No, no.

[Gordon Carrera]

I mean, he's trying to control the plotting. He's trying to control the organization from afar.

[David McCloskey]

And in these years, he's also dealing.

[Gordon Carrera]

With these kind of rowdy Al Qaeda.

[David McCloskey]

Affiliates, like the really murderous franchise that pops up after the US invasion of Iraq. He's trying to keep them in line.

[Gordon Carrera]

And if he's doing all of this.

[David McCloskey]

He has to have a way to get in touch with people. And since he's not doing the communications himself and he's not on phones or computers, he must be using a courier and the courier is going to be the one path that the CIA will.

[Gordon Carrera]

Walk down that will actually bear fruit. Now, we should note, looking back on.

[David McCloskey]

This, it seems maybe obvious or clear that you can have some certainty that.

[Gordon Carrera]

This path will lead you to Osama bin Laden. But nobody back then had any clue.

[David McCloskey]

That this was going to be productive at all.

[Gordon Carrera]

So you should think about the work that these targeters are doing in their cubicles at Langley day in and day.

[David McCloskey]

Out for years as being absolutely tedious, painstaking work. I mean, really, it is.

[Gordon Carrera]

It's like a detective looking over the same information probably over and over again.

[David McCloskey]

Trying to put a new light on.

[Gordon Carrera]

It or sort of polish something up to kind of give a new perspective.

[David McCloskey]

On the same stuff over and over again. If they're working on kind of a cold case. Right.

[Gordon Carrera]

Yeah. And I do think, though, that this is the point of this story where the hunt for bin Laden really intersects.

[David McCloskey]

I mean, this extremely controversial topic of enhanced interrogation or torture.

[Unknown]

Yeah. Because Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who we mentioned, the mastermind, 9, 11, he gets captured, and he is one of those who's subjected to waterboarding, simulated drowning, torture. And one of the questions that's always been raised is how far that contributed or was needed to get some of the intelligence about the couriers. Because certainly some of the intelligence does come from Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. But the way it was always described to me as a kind of mosaic of different parts. Those who are defending the use of waterboarding will always say, well, he was waterboarded, he gave some vital information, therefore it had to be done and it was vital. Whereas, of course, the critics will say, a, you shouldn't do it anyway, and B, got the information anyway without having to do the waterboarding. So I think we should acknowledge here that it is a very, very controversial subject of which it is hard, actually, I think, to get a definitive answer about whether it was needed to happen. But certainly Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who was waterboarded, provided some of the clues. And it wasn't, as you said, you know, it wasn't like he suddenly goes, yeah, here's the name of the courier. It's about placing together different fragments, isn't it?

[Gordon Carrera]

Yeah. And so it's probably worth just walking through exactly what.

[David McCloskey]

What happened here.

[Gordon Carrera]

So one of the insights that I think really leads these targeters down the path of trying to find this courier or set of couriers is they start to think about, okay, Osama bin Laden.

[David McCloskey]

Has fallen off of the CIA's collection.

[Gordon Carrera]

Radar since Tora Bora.

[David McCloskey]

Are there other members of Al Qaeda senior trusted Associates who have also fallen off of the radar. Right, Just like Bin laden.

[Gordon Carrera]

And in 2002 or 2003 the CIA.

[David McCloskey]

Interrogates a number of Al Qaeda detainees. One is a guy who actually almost participated in the 911 plot.

[Gordon Carrera]

And he tells the CIA while he's being interrogated that KSM Khalid Sheikh Mohammed.

[David McCloskey]

Had introduced him to a man known.

[Gordon Carrera]

As Abu Ahmed, Abu Ahmed Al Kuwaiti.

[David McCloskey]

Who had instructed him in secret communications.

[Gordon Carrera]

And this Kuwaiti is described as a courier, trusted courier for Bin Laden. Now during those interrogations, the Al Qaeda detainee is often continuously exposed to low temperatures. He's made to stand, he's given short blasts of Christina Aguilera music, really? Drugs, Christina Aguilera, yeah.

[David McCloskey]

Soon thereafter, KSM himself is caught in Pakistan.

[Gordon Carrera]

He's water bordered, he's kept up for days straight. He's shackled at a secret CIA prison in Poland.

[David McCloskey]

And he is asked about Abu Ahmed.

[Gordon Carrera]

And about the importance of this Abu Ahmed Al Kuwaiti.

[David McCloskey]

And Khalid Sheikh Mohammed says, oh, he's retired and not actually that important.

[Gordon Carrera]

But then Khalid Sheikh Mohammed goes back.

[David McCloskey]

To his cell, is taken back to.

[Gordon Carrera]

His cell and there are apparently other.

[David McCloskey]

Detainees in there with him.

[Gordon Carrera]

And I guess Khalid Jake Muhammad did not assume that the entire cell was wired up or maybe he was just.

[David McCloskey]

So destroyed from the physical punishment that he had taken. But he begins to tell other detainees, look, don't talk about the career.

[Unknown]

And that is a red flag, isn't it? That's a big ringing bell going. This guy's interesting.

[David McCloskey]

Now granted, Abu Ahmed is one name.

[Gordon Carrera]

Among hundreds of names of Al Qaeda.

[David McCloskey]

Members and associates that we're interested in.

[Gordon Carrera]

So we shouldn't be like this is getting raised up to George Tenet on.

[David McCloskey]

The seventh floor as some aha moment, right?

[Gordon Carrera]

But at this point, ctc, the people.

[David McCloskey]

Going after Bin Laden know that this Abu Ahmed is of interest, right?

[Gordon Carrera]

He had been with Bin Laden and.

[David McCloskey]

He'S important enough that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed.

[Gordon Carrera]

Is lying under extreme pressure about the Kuwaiti. Now In January of 2004, another Al.

[David McCloskey]

Qaeda courier adds to this mix. He's captured in northern Iraq carrying a.

[Gordon Carrera]

Letter from the Iraq franchise to Osama Bin Laden himself.

[David McCloskey]

This courier is taken to a black.

[Gordon Carrera]

Site CIA site in Eastern Europe where he is also treated quite poorly. And at some point he confesses that.

[David McCloskey]

Abu Ahmed is Osama Bin Laden's courier and a trusted associate.

[Gordon Carrera]

Now what is interesting is that similar to Bin Laden, this courier has dropped.

[David McCloskey]

Off the map completely. So at this point, by 2004, 2005, the name of this Courier is now very interesting to the CIA's Counterterrorism Center. There is a belief that this could be a path toward bin Laden.

[Gordon Carrera]

But to put a bow on the.

[David McCloskey]

Thorny subject of enhanced interrogation slash torture, I think what I would say is this.

[Gordon Carrera]

I would say that number one, the.

[David McCloskey]

Interrogations in which enhanced interrogation techniques were.

[Gordon Carrera]

Used were critical to building the map of Al Qaeda that was used to determine the importance of the courier and ultimately to find bin Laden.

[David McCloskey]

These interrogations did give a wealth of.

[Gordon Carrera]

Valuable information, but it's impossible to know, I think if they would have provided the same information without the coercion.

[David McCloskey]

Right. It's like an unanswerable question.

[Gordon Carrera]

So what is factually true is that a lot of the people who provided.

[David McCloskey]

Important clues to help the CIA determine.

[Gordon Carrera]

The identity of this courier were also.

[David McCloskey]

Subjected to enhanced interrogation techniques and torture.

[Gordon Carrera]

Which is why I think in the kind of the histories that have been.

[David McCloskey]

Written of this hunt and in a lot of the memoirs, you can end.

[Gordon Carrera]

Up with very different opinions.

[Unknown]

Yeah, it's a very contentious subject. So we've got this name, Abu Ahmad Al Kuwaiti, but just that name doesn't get you there, does it? Because an Elias, it's not his real name.

[David McCloskey]

Do you see?

[Unknown]

Elias Alias.

[Gordon Carrera]

Sorry, I was wondering, I was wondering if that was that a British thing like.

[Unknown]

No, I think it was privacy.

[Gordon Carrera]

Okay.

[Unknown]

I think you'd say either, but an alias or an Elias, but that's what it is. So they don't know quite who he is. I think there's even some information that he might have died at some point from one detainee in Tora Bora. So they've got potentially, although they don't know it yet, what could be a vital clue. But the question is how they're going to turn that into a functioning lead which is going to give them the breakthrough. So let's take a break there and after the break we'll come back and see how they work that lead into the key intelligence trail to lead them to Bin Laden.

[David McCloskey]

This episode is sponsored by Norton NordVPN, which Gordon, frankly is essential if you'd rather not have your online life monitored like some Cold war embassy.

[Unknown]

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[David McCloskey]

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[Unknown]

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[David McCloskey]

It also encrypts your data on public.

[Gordon Carrera]

Wi fi, think cafes, airports, hotels.

[David McCloskey]

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[Unknown]

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[David McCloskey]

Plus there's a 30 day money back guarantee. No risk, no trace, no loose ends. The link is in the episode description.

[Unknown]

Welcome back. The CIA is on the hunt for Osama Bin Laden. The trail had been cold, but they've got this one clue, haven't they David? The use of couriers and particularly this name, Abu Ahmed Al Kuwaiti and the idea he might be important.

[Gordon Carrera]

Well, that's right and the CIA at.

[David McCloskey]

This point, I mean doesn't know much about Abu Ahmed Al Kuwaiti other than he is important or was important. The CIA knows that he'd been a.

[Gordon Carrera]

Member of kind of Al Qaeda and.

[David McCloskey]

Bin Laden inner circle before 9 11, but he is vanished from collection since. And to your point, I mean they.

[Gordon Carrera]

Don'T even know his, his true name. So this courier is, is hugely important.

[David McCloskey]

And yet there's just almost nothing on him.

[Gordon Carrera]

And maybe he's dead, he could be gone. So the heat though is, is on.

[David McCloskey]

The CIA, I think bureaucratically at this point.

[Gordon Carrera]

I mean this is an era where the CIA director is getting three or.

[David McCloskey]

Four times a week CT counterterrorism updates, right?

[Gordon Carrera]

So targeting Abu Ahmed becomes a critical.

[David McCloskey]

Priority for the team hunting Bin Laden. Now the most important developments in this hunt are also, and maybe unsurprisingly to listeners of the rest of classified, the.

[Gordon Carrera]

Ones that continue to be most shrouded in mystery. But by 2007 the CIA has Abu Ahmed Al Kuwaiti's true name, which I think is gleaned through some really patient targeting work done by that bin Laden unit.

[David McCloskey]

Maybe also some helpful foreign partners.

[Unknown]

Yeah, I wonder if a foreign partner might have played a key role in that. But we don't know who, do we?

[David McCloskey]

Right?

[Gordon Carrera]

And by 2010, I mean you think about, I've also, I mean this is.

[Unknown]

Years I'm doing here, right?

[Gordon Carrera]

I mean like this is years, so.

[David McCloskey]

We'Re talking, the CIA probably by 2005 knows that Abu Ahmed Al Kuwaiti is important, right?

[Gordon Carrera]

It's a couple years later before we have a true name and then another.

[Unknown]

Three years before you get a phone.

[Gordon Carrera]

Number for it before you get a phone number.

[David McCloskey]

And you can imagine how much more important the phone number is than the real name. So they get the phone number. Now, Michael Morell, who by 2010 is the deputy director of the CIA, he had been Bush's PDB briefer on 9 11. Morel wrote, it took us several years to learn Abu Ahmed's true name and several more years to find his general location.

[Gordon Carrera]

He offers no specifics.

[David McCloskey]

Morel has publicly said that you could write a book about how the CIA found all this out, but it's not in his book, and that book is.

[Gordon Carrera]

Certainly not written yet. Now there is the fun scene in Zero Dark Thirty, Gordon, where a CIA officer flies out to the Gulf and basically hands over, like, a piece of.

[David McCloskey]

Paper that has a name on it.

[Gordon Carrera]

I believe, and then tells this Kuwaiti.

[David McCloskey]

Or Emirati, they're in a Lamborghini dealership.

[Gordon Carrera]

And he basically says, you know, pick.

[David McCloskey]

Out whatever you want. Right.

[Gordon Carrera]

And so there's this, like, great Hollywood.

[David McCloskey]

Twist on sort of how the CIA.

[Gordon Carrera]

Worked from Alias or Elias to True name to phone number.

[Unknown]

But we don't think that's how it happened with the Lamborghini in real life, do we?

[Gordon Carrera]

No, no, no, no.

[David McCloskey]

In fact, I'm positive that's. That's not.

[Unknown]

There was Lamborghini involved. Okay.

[David McCloskey]

But what did happen is once we.

[Gordon Carrera]

Got the true name for the courier.

[David McCloskey]

Which, by the way, it's Ibrahim Said.

[Gordon Carrera]

Ahmed, we get the phone number of his family. And his value to Osama bin Laden is immediately apparent because Ibrahim Said Ahmed, Abu Ahmed, well, he's a Pakistani from the northwest part of the country whose.

[David McCloskey]

Father had emigrated to Kuwait decades earlier. So he speaks Arabic and Pashto.

[Gordon Carrera]

So you can think about the worlds.

[David McCloskey]

That Osama bin Laden is straddling. That's really useful.

[Gordon Carrera]

He has sworn Bayat loyalty to Osama bin Laden, and he's got a pre.

[David McCloskey]

911 connection to bin Laden. So they go. They go way back.

[Gordon Carrera]

And what happens is the CIA and the NSA are watching the family phones, and those phones are talking to phones in Pakistan.

[David McCloskey]

And you remember we Talked about the CIA's analysis on manhunts, Love for family.

[Gordon Carrera]

Connection to family being a weakness when.

[David McCloskey]

It comes to manhunts in general.

[Gordon Carrera]

And so even though there isn't anything.

[David McCloskey]

Particularly interesting or operational happening on these.

[Gordon Carrera]

Calls between family in Kuwait and Pakistan.

[David McCloskey]

The phone in Pakistan behaves really strangely.

[Gordon Carrera]

The phone is mostly off, and it gets flipped on in Peshawar, Arawal, Pindi.

[David McCloskey]

Weeks or months apart. So this phone is being flipped on in settled areas and cities and then will otherwise be off.

[Gordon Carrera]

And right at this point, I mean, you could have the theory that this guy's retired. You know, he's just living somewhere else, kind of off the grid and not involved with Al Qaeda. And there's a critical phone call which is intercepted, and there's an approximation of it which appears in the film Zero Dark Thirty, which is close enough, in which I'll read here, which the CIA is listening to. And it's, it's our friend Abu Ahmed.

[David McCloskey]

Speaking to one of his friends. And his friend says, we've missed you. Where have you been?

[Gordon Carrera]

And there's kind of this pause and.

[David McCloskey]

This, the friend apparently before this is kind of pushed and pushed and pushed.

[Gordon Carrera]

Because he's trying to understand what in.

[David McCloskey]

The world the Kuwaiti is up to. And Abu Ahmed says, I'm back with the people I was with before.

[Unknown]

Now that's telling, is there?

[Gordon Carrera]

Yeah, that's very, it's very telling. And there's this kind of tense pause in the conversation.

[David McCloskey]

The friend kind of understands what, what.

[Gordon Carrera]

He said and he says, I think.

[David McCloskey]

You know, go with God or something like that, and then hangs up.

[Unknown]

Because obviously if you know he's had a past with Al Qaeda, then that suggests he could be back with them. I mean, that's not a absolute certainty, but it is very telling, isn't it? And so suddenly that is a big clue to suggest this is a person and a phone that's worth really studying to try and understand how to get to him.

[David McCloskey]

That's right.

[Gordon Carrera]

Because you, you start thinking at this.

[David McCloskey]

Point, if you're one of the CIA.

[Gordon Carrera]

Targeters, okay, I know that I have a very senior guy who had been.

[David McCloskey]

A courier and a trusted member of.

[Gordon Carrera]

Bin Laden's inner circle prior to 9.

[David McCloskey]

11, who is also off the grid.

[Gordon Carrera]

Like bin Laden and who is basically said that he is still working with Al Qaeda. And so he might be the courier.

[David McCloskey]

For the number two Zawahiri or some other important figure.

[Gordon Carrera]

But you know that this is an.

[David McCloskey]

Intelligence target of real value.

[Gordon Carrera]

Right? But you know, this Kuwaiti, he's practicing.

[David McCloskey]

Really rigorous operational security.

[Gordon Carrera]

He's not bringing the phone with the battery in the SIM card into wherever he's going.

[David McCloskey]

It's being turned on in a city.

[Gordon Carrera]

Where he can sort of blend in briefly for conversations, and then it's being turned off.

[David McCloskey]

So the CIA needs to figure out where in the world he's going.

[Gordon Carrera]

Right.

[David McCloskey]

And so how do you do that in Pakistan? That's the question.

[Unknown]

And you can't do that remotely. The NSA can't do that by just waiting for the phone to come on and then geolocating it at that moment. It sounds like, it sounds like it's not as simple as in the movies where, you know, a phone flashes up.

[David McCloskey]

Yeah.

[Gordon Carrera]

I mean, I think if he's turning.

[David McCloskey]

The phone off and taking the battery out.

[Unknown]

Yeah. You can't track it.

[David McCloskey]

You're not tracking that because it's not.

[Gordon Carrera]

The phone's not communicating with a tower.

[David McCloskey]

It's not communicating with other sensors.

[Unknown]

Right.

[David McCloskey]

There's certainly no direct implant that the CIA or NSA has on that particular phone.

[Gordon Carrera]

And so you're just losing it, I.

[David McCloskey]

Think, when it, when it disappears.

[Gordon Carrera]

And so the very tedious thing that the CIA does is they figure out, okay, well, we're going to send.

[David McCloskey]

And this, this is a part of.

[Gordon Carrera]

Zero Dark Thirty, I think. Just quite accurate are these scenes where.

[David McCloskey]

These geolocational teams are basically out on the streets. Right.

[Unknown]

In Pakistan.

[Gordon Carrera]

In Pakistan. Right in these places where we know.

[David McCloskey]

That he's popped up before.

[Unknown]

Waiting for him to pop up. Basically waiting for him to pop up and then hoping. What? Hoping you're near enough to be able to locate him, to be able to see the car, to see where he is. Yeah.

[Gordon Carrera]

And so what happens is eventually we get lucky. And the scenes in0dark30 make this all.

[David McCloskey]

Seem like really exciting. And I'm sure it was just absolutely.

[Gordon Carrera]

Awful for the, for the people who are out there.

[David McCloskey]

But finally in 2010, there's a hit in Peshawar in Pakistan and the CIA is able to get the make and model of the Kuwaiti's white Suzuki Pohar, which is kind of white little SUV with a rhinoceros logo.

[Gordon Carrera]

Now, incidentally, many of the, some of.

[David McCloskey]

Bin Laden hunters at the agency will have T shirts made with that logo after the raid. But then you have a car.

[Gordon Carrera]

So we've gone from alias to true.

[David McCloskey]

Name to phone number to car. Right. And then you're basically running picket line surveillance.

[Gordon Carrera]

Because this is the other thing is you have to be so careful.

[David McCloskey]

Right. Because if you spook him, it's done potentially. Right. You've lost the lead. And so there's very careful surveillance done for a period of time in Pakistan.

[Gordon Carrera]

After that to track that Suzuki Podahara to a compound and they follow that car to a compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

[Unknown]

And that is a very interesting place for it to be, isn't it? Because Abbottabad is not a cave in the middle of nowhere in the tribal areas. It's a big Town, I mean it's a few miles from Pakistan's top military academy. It is not the kind of incredibly remote spot that people had expected. I mean it's a compound in a town.

[David McCloskey]

Wasn't the town named for a Brit, Gordon?

[Unknown]

Yeah, I think that's right. Was it Abbott or something? I can't remember but yeah, that's right yeah, yeah.

[Gordon Carrera]

Oh man, I stumped Gordon on some.

[David McCloskey]

Something British, British history.

[Unknown]

Yeah, we'll have to get the rest of history guys. Tell us the history of who he was. There's probably some great hero of his.

[Gordon Carrera]

But it is definitely not where you would presume or maybe where the popular.

[David McCloskey]

Picture of, you know, Bin Laden hiding.

[Gordon Carrera]

It'S not this, It's. It's a 38000 square foot compound in Abbottabad.

[Unknown]

Yeah but it is interesting isn't it? Because it is not a normal compound. I think that's the one thing to say, it is a compound but it's got windows coated with reflective material so you can't see in kind of high walls, lots of gates I think some really interesting things like you know, no phone or Internet service from local providers a lot of things which just suggest this is someone who is living there, who is a bit different and who is maybe worried about their privacy or privacy from anyone who might be interested.

[David McCloskey]

The wall on the balcony is particularly weird too right?

[Gordon Carrera]

Because Abbottabad is actually picturesque in many respects.

[David McCloskey]

It's got views of the mountains and.

[Gordon Carrera]

You would think if you're building a big compound that you would want to.

[David McCloskey]

Take in those views right from your.

[Gordon Carrera]

Balcony in the morning or the evening. And the third floor balcony which would be like the primo spot has a seven foot high wall on it so you can't even use the balcony to look out multiple layers of gates, the.

[David McCloskey]

12 foot high walls. One section is 18 foot high walls, right?

[Gordon Carrera]

I mean it is, it's a bizarre place.

[Unknown]

They burn their garbage don't they? You know rather in a fire pit again rather than let it be picked up by anyone else. Just all these little interesting things which suggest it's something different.

[David McCloskey]

The CIA analysts who were doing this.

[Gordon Carrera]

I mean to their credit had actually.

[David McCloskey]

Done some work prior to the discovery.

[Gordon Carrera]

Of this to try to imagine what Bin Laden's hiding place would be like. And they weren't that far off in part because of course your favorite topic of this series Gordon, the families.

[David McCloskey]

You know, Bin Laden being a family.

[Gordon Carrera]

Man there was this assumption which proved to be right that he, he would.

[David McCloskey]

Have a significant number of people with.

[Gordon Carrera]

Him that he wouldn't just be alone. And as the CIA watch this compound there, there are a couple families that never leave. There are two families there that, that do, right, and where the kids go to school and they have cars and they leave and he drives out in his Suzuki Bodahar.

[David McCloskey]

But there are a couple families that just, you know, the kids don't leave the compound, period.

[Unknown]

Now, all of this is suspicious, but it's not conclusive, is it? You know, none of it actually is the same as being able to prove that bin Laden is there. I mean, it could be drug dealer or some kind of lower level Al Qaeda operative who the courier is doing work for. So, you know, the next challenge is how do you prove something like that? And that is going to be one of the interesting challenges, isn't it? Because they're trying to come up with ways of working out who is inside a compound who does not want to be found and does not want to come out.

[David McCloskey]

And Leon Panetta, who is the head.

[Gordon Carrera]

Of the CIA at this point in time, he really starts to push the.

[David McCloskey]

Team for creative ideas.

[Gordon Carrera]

And I overlapped with, with Panetta when I was there, and I should say he was, he's a very interesting guy. He's a walnut farmer and former congressman, I believe, from California, who'd been Clinton's chief of staff, a absolute bureaucratic knife fighter, has come to be quite beloved by the CIA and who also, by the way, played basketball, intramural basketball at.

[David McCloskey]

The CIA wearing very high white gym socks. I remember, remember seeing that.

[Gordon Carrera]

So he pushes the team for, you know, let's get creative and see if we can get some insight on what's going on in this compound. So he's, you know, can we get into the sewage lines? Can we put telescopes up on the.

[David McCloskey]

Mountains a few kilometers away? Can you put camera on the tree in the compound?

[Gordon Carrera]

Unfortunately, apparently the Kuwaiti chopped the tree down.

[David McCloskey]

Shortly after Panetta suggested that idea. He had an idea about throwing stink bombs into the compound, flush people out.

[Unknown]

There was one particularly controversial idea though, wasn't there?

[Gordon Carrera]

Oh, you want to talk about the controversial idea.

[Unknown]

You've got some other ideas first you want to do. But I think there is a, the one, the controversial one is a fake vaccine program where the CIA is going to use a local doctor to go door to door in Abbottabad to say that they're doing vaccines for people while actually trying to secretly collect DNA samples from people which they're then hoping they can match to Bin Laden's DNA because they've Collected that from other of his, you know, the Mid Lantern family members. I mean, that didn't work. But it's very controversial, isn't it? Because, I mean, the doctor ends up in prison, I think. And it kind of undermines vaccination rates in Pakistan because everyone thinks the vaccination campaigns are run by the CIA. So I find that one a morally questionable one. I kind of completely get the desire to get intelligence on bin Laden in any way, but the kind of fallout of that one is a bit tricky, isn't it?

[David McCloskey]

And it doesn't work.

[Unknown]

And it doesn't work. So all of this, and they've still just got a circumstantial case, haven't they, rather than any actual proof that he's there.

[Gordon Carrera]

That is true, it is circumstantial. Although, I mean, one of the, I.

[David McCloskey]

Think, compelling pieces of circumstantial evidence is.

[Gordon Carrera]

That as the CIA watches and watches.

[David McCloskey]

The compound, they do determine that this.

[Gordon Carrera]

Other family, the one that doesn't leave the compound, they actually look at the number of articles of clothing in some.

[David McCloskey]

Cases that are drying on the clotheslines out in the yard.

[Gordon Carrera]

They determine it consists of, it's three.

[David McCloskey]

Women, a young man, at least nine children, and maybe some grandchildren as well. And again, it's not confirmation that Osama bin Laden is there, but the composition.

[Gordon Carrera]

Of the family is consistent with what.

[David McCloskey]

Was known about Osama bin Laden's immediate family. And so that is, that is a.

[Gordon Carrera]

Compelling piece of the circumstantial picture. But there's a bunch of overhead imagery in this period.

[David McCloskey]

The satellites can never really get a.

[Gordon Carrera]

Clear picture of this man who appears.

[David McCloskey]

To be the head of this family.

[Gordon Carrera]

But there, there is somebody, this guy who starts taking walks every day almost like he's in a prison yard around this vegetable garden. He's walking in these kind of tight circles and he's beneath a tarp, right.

[David McCloskey]

Which seems to have been set up so satellites can't see him. CIA nicknames him the Pacer.

[Gordon Carrera]

They try to check his height against bin Laden's, but the best apparently the.

[David McCloskey]

Agency could come up with was that he was between 5 foot 5 and 6, 8, which is a pretty wide range.

[Unknown]

Yeah.

[David McCloskey]

You get to this point, I think.

[Gordon Carrera]

Where you say, well, are we going.

[David McCloskey]

To get better intel? Right. Or is this the best that we're going to get?

[Gordon Carrera]

Because you've had kind of Panetta has.

[David McCloskey]

Been hitting the targeters and analysts with.

[Gordon Carrera]

A rock to get more, more ideas.

[David McCloskey]

Nothing is really.

[Gordon Carrera]

There hasn't been a breakthrough.

[David McCloskey]

Right.

[Gordon Carrera]

And you get this kind of famous.

[David McCloskey]

Scene in Zero Dark Thirty where everyone's kind of giving confidence assessments in how likely is it that bin Laden is here.

[Gordon Carrera]

And you get these ranges, 90% on down to 60%. And one analyst who had this personality.

[David McCloskey]

And the Jessica Chastain character in0dark30 is based off of says, you know, 100%.

[Unknown]

Nothing's 100%.

[Gordon Carrera]

Nothing is 100%. Michael Morell famously says that the intel case that Bin Laden is in the.

[David McCloskey]

House is weaker than the Iraq WMD.

[Unknown]

Case, which of course was proved wrong.

[David McCloskey]

Which was proved wrong, but in that.

[Gordon Carrera]

Case is that you had intelligence in the affirmative, which was wrong, suggesting that Saddam had wmd, where in this case.

[David McCloskey]

There was no actual intelligence to say.

[Gordon Carrera]

That Bin Laden is is there.

[David McCloskey]

But of course the percentages are a bit bogus, right? Because he's either there or he isn't.

[Gordon Carrera]

And I will say one of my former colleagues has said, look, even if it's not bin Laden, the presence of.

[David McCloskey]

The Kuwaiti and the Kuwaiti's admission that.

[Gordon Carrera]

He'S working with the people he was working with before means that either bin.

[David McCloskey]

Laden is there or like a key to him is there.

[Gordon Carrera]

Right?

[David McCloskey]

There's an important Al Qaeda member or connection to this compound in Abbottabad.

[Unknown]

But at some point you can't get any further. You've got this possibility no more. And I guess you've got to go to the President because ultimately this is a decision for a President to make, isn't it, based on that level of confidence and the risks involved in carrying out some kind of operation. So it goes to Obama and his call really about what he wants to do and what the options are.

[Gordon Carrera]

Obama tells Panetta to come up with.

[David McCloskey]

Ideas, options to do something against the.

[Gordon Carrera]

Compound and a process is stood up to basically come up with these ideas.

[David McCloskey]

And, and approve them.

[Gordon Carrera]

The NSC meetings, the National Security Council.

[David McCloskey]

Meetings go on the calendar as Mickey Mouse meetings in the West Wing. Morel says it's the most tightly held and compartmented process that he had seen.

[Gordon Carrera]

In his time in government.

[David McCloskey]

And essentially the options are this.

[Gordon Carrera]

So you could drop a few 2,000 pound bombs on the target with a B2 bomber, but you'd have absolutely no guarantees that you get bin Laden. You're in a big city, you're going.

[Unknown]

To kill a lot of people around.

[Gordon Carrera]

Kill a lot of people. The Pentagon thought they would probably need 322000 pound bombs to obliterate the compound.

[Unknown]

And if you obliterate it, you won't even know for sure whether he was there or.

[Gordon Carrera]

Yeah, you probably won't know that he's there. Right. You could do a drone strike on the site or you could do a special ops raid.

[David McCloskey]

Right.

[Gordon Carrera]

You could actually put people in and go and kill, kill him. And of course then you have the terrible Pakistani angle, Gordon, which is hung.

[David McCloskey]

Over this series in so many different.

[Gordon Carrera]

Ways going back to the 90s and it, it rears its head again when planning for the raid to get Bin Laden.

[Unknown]

Yeah, because US Pakistani relations are as they say, complex. They've been allies for many years. You know, they're allies in the 80s in fighting the, the Soviets and backing the Mujahideen. But there are people in the Pakistani military and intelligence services, it is alleged or suspected, who are more sympathetic to the Jihadist world of view. I mean that's always been the allegation. And Pakistan plays a kind of complicated, what some people call a double game backing some groups in Afghanistan in relations with the Taliban also while the US is fighting them. And it's, it's the Pakistani kind of strategic policy, you know, it's an insecure country, it's got a big neighbour. India, you know, as we saw recently, who can nearly go to war with, it's worried about what happens in Afghanistan. So there's both ideology and kind of pragmatism which means basically the US and Pakistan don't entirely trust each other, do.

[Gordon Carrera]

They at this point? Also a CIA contractor has just shot.

[David McCloskey]

Two Pakistanis dead in self defense.

[Gordon Carrera]

Yeah.

[Unknown]

Remember that? Yeah.

[David McCloskey]

So relations are not, not so great.

[Unknown]

And it's fair to say that dropping 32, 2000 pound bombs on a country which is notionally your ally on one of its towns, it's not, not good for relations I think it's not normally a kind of the thing that's done which goes back to the civilian casualties, collateral damage. How sure are you? What are the consequences? What's going to be the fallout? You don't want to tell them about your suspicions because as we heard previously, there is a risk that if there's sympathizers there they'll tip off Bin Laden and he's going to be out of.

[Gordon Carrera]

There, which has already happened once in the 90s. And you have many of the same.

[David McCloskey]

People who are making this decision were in government then.

[Gordon Carrera]

Right. So there's a great anecdote which I think shows the depth of the analysis.

[David McCloskey]

Being done on this compound.

[Gordon Carrera]

When they were, this group was discussing this option of, you know, do we use maybe smaller bombs? A question comes up as to whether there might be A tunnel to help bin Laden get out. And nga, the National Geospatial Agency, which does a lot of the overhead imagery.

[David McCloskey]

Actually did an analysis of the water.

[Gordon Carrera]

Table around Abbottabad to conclude it was.

[David McCloskey]

High and said it would be almost impossible to dig a tunnel.

[Gordon Carrera]

So you can imagine how many dozens.

[David McCloskey]

If not hundreds of these very specific questions came up in this process.

[Gordon Carrera]

And as they look at these options, Gordon, you're right. I mean, there's kind of a pro.

[David McCloskey]

And con to each, right? I mean, how likely is it to succeed? Well, you know, it's actually him.

[Gordon Carrera]

What's the risk of the operators?

[David McCloskey]

But there's no additional intelligence coming in. Right. And so the, the Mickey Mouse meeting.

[Gordon Carrera]

Group at the White House essentially spins.

[David McCloskey]

On all of this stuff for a bit. Right.

[Gordon Carrera]

And there are a number of histories.

[David McCloskey]

Written of this process that get the sense of just they get stuck. Right.

[Gordon Carrera]

There's no new information coming in and.

[David McCloskey]

They just kind of continue to meet.

[Gordon Carrera]

In the spring of 2011. So by early April, the White House is, I mean, they're still debating options. Now operators from the Naval Special Warfare Development group, which is DEV Group Red.

[David McCloskey]

Squadron, also known as SEAL Team 6, begin practicing on a full scale model of the compound out in, I believe.

[Gordon Carrera]

The forest of North Carolina and in.

[David McCloskey]

The Nevada desert to kind of mimic the heat and altitude of Abbottabad.

[Gordon Carrera]

Right. So they actually start to work on a full scale mock up of the Abbottabad compound.

[David McCloskey]

And there are 24 Gordon Mickey Mouse meetings in total that spring.

[Gordon Carrera]

And as this process goes and goes and as the raid is planned, no one is sure, of course, that it's Osama bin Laden.

[Unknown]

But ultimately you've got to make the call, haven't you? I mean, at some point the risk is something will change, something will leak. So at some point they're going to have to make that call and make a decision.

[David McCloskey]

That's right.

[Gordon Carrera]

And the team at the agency concludes that even though it's not for sure.

[David McCloskey]

The most likely hypothesis is that Osama bin Laden is there. And there's a final Mickey mouse meeting on 28th April 2011 to make the call.

[Gordon Carrera]

And Obama basically goes around the room to see who is in favor of what. Famously, Joe Biden is not in favor.

[Unknown]

Quite cautious, isn't he, about lots of things.

[Gordon Carrera]

Bob Gates, Defense Secretary says no, but then actually later that day changes his.

[David McCloskey]

Vote to a yes.

[Gordon Carrera]

There's one advisor who is still pushing to use a kind of tactical precision guided munition. They don't do that, of course. Hillary Clinton, Secretary of state at the time says yes. John Brennan, the counterterrorism adviser, says yes.

[David McCloskey]

Panetta says yes. And I mean, it is, you know.

[Gordon Carrera]

It'S interesting, Gordon, I mean, what would.

[David McCloskey]

You have done had you been the decider in the spring of 2011?

[Unknown]

If I'd been President Obama. I mean, look, it's really easy, isn't it, to go, well, of course it's the right thing to do and brave because you know how it's going to turn out. I mean, the consequences of getting it wrong are significant. With an ally like Pakistan to basically launch a either raid or a bombing mission on a close ally which kills people. I mean, in other places that would be an act of war, but you know, that is going to have pretty significant consequences. But equally, you know, it's been a decade of looking for bin Laden, a decade since 9 11, and this is the best, the closest you've ever got to a lead on where he might be. And this goes back, I guess, to the whole theme of our series, missed opportunities. People didn't take these kind of opportunities in the late 90s, did they? They were presented with things which possibly had maybe similar odds, some of those kind of crazy missions in the late 90s, and they didn't do it. But now you're in the kind of post 911 world, 9 11's happened and you've not seen him for 10 years and suddenly you feel even though the odds might be the same on you suddenly feel actually you may not get another chance if you don't take it. So there I am trying to say I'd be brave and take it, but I don't know.

[Gordon Carrera]

I'm sure we both like to think.

[David McCloskey]

We would have approved it.

[Gordon Carrera]

And I just keep coming back to this idea that this is the best.

[David McCloskey]

Lead you've had in a decade.

[Unknown]

Yeah.

[Gordon Carrera]

And you cannot be sure it will ever get this good again. There's a part of me that can.

[David McCloskey]

Kind of understand why some of the.

[Gordon Carrera]

Advisors would say no, don't, don't take the risk. And in particular after someone like Michael Morale, who's kind of, you know, lived.

[David McCloskey]

All this for the past 15 years, says it's a worse case than Iraq WMD.

[Gordon Carrera]

I mean, that's.

[David McCloskey]

And kind of.

[Unknown]

That's right.

[Gordon Carrera]

The whole process.

[Unknown]

Right.

[Gordon Carrera]

But it is the best swing you're going to get.

[David McCloskey]

You know, if you're Obama, you're probably.

[Gordon Carrera]

Thinking, well, if word gets out that I didn't take this swing and he was there, that's potentially worse than potentially.

[David McCloskey]

Losing some operators on the raid.

[Unknown]

And so, as we know, President Obama is going to give the go ahead. And so, David, let's stop there. And next time, we'll come back and look in detail at that amazing operation to go after Osama bin Laden, full of kind of risk and danger and tension, as the final chapter of this long struggle between the CIA and Osama bin Laden is played out.

[Gordon Carrera]

Well, that's right, Gordon. And if dear listeners, Squirrels don't want to wait, you don't have to.

[David McCloskey]

So if you don't want to wait and you want to download that last episode right now, get access to a.

[Gordon Carrera]

Bunch of other wonderful bonus content, join.

[David McCloskey]

Our Declassified Club at the restis classified.com and stream it all right now.

[Gordon Carrera]

But until then, we will see you next time.

[Unknown]

See you next time.