7. The Real Godfather: The Assassination that Shook Syria (Ep 2)

Summary

Summary of "The Rest Is Classified" Episode 7: The Real Godfather: The Assassination that Shook Syria (Ep 2)

Release Date: December 19, 2024
Hosts: David McCloskey and Gordon Corera

In the seventh episode of The Rest Is Classified, titled "The Real Godfather: The Assassination that Shook Syria (Ep 2)," hosts David McCloskey and Gordon Corera delve deep into the intricate web of political intrigue, power struggles, and assassination that culminated in the murder of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Drawing compelling parallels to the iconic The Godfather film series, the hosts illuminate the dark underbelly of Syrian politics and its profound impact on the Middle East.

1. Introduction: Drawing Parallels with The Godfather

The episode opens with a dramatic reading of a scene reminiscent of The Godfather Part II, setting the tone for a narrative filled with betrayal, power plays, and the relentless pursuit of control. David McCloskey humorously admits to misquoting the film, but quickly redirects the conversation to the real-life drama unfolding in Syria and Lebanon.

Quote:

"Frankie Five Angels. And he hints at the way he can protect his family after his treachery against the Corleone family."
— David McCloskey [03:20]

2. Background: Bashar al Assad and Rafiq Hariri

The hosts provide a comprehensive background on Bashar al Assad's rise to power in Syria after succeeding his father in 2000. Initially unprepared for leadership, Assad's tenure soon mirrored the transformation of Michael Corleone from The Godfather, evolving into a ruthless leader determined to solidify his regime.

Rafiq Hariri, a prominent Lebanese businessman and politician, emerged as a significant adversary to Assad. His push for Lebanon's independence from Syrian influence posed a direct threat to Assad's "family business"—the extended Syrian control over Lebanon.

3. The Assassination of Rafiq Hariri

On February 14, 2005, a meticulously planned car bomb targeting Hariri's convoy devastated Beirut, resulting in Hariri's death and numerous casualties. The assassination was executed with chilling precision, employing around 1,200 kilograms of plastic explosives and TNT.

Detailed Timeline:

• Morning of February 14, 2005: Hariri attends a parliamentary session and engages in meetings at Cafe de la Toile.
• Afternoon: As Hariri's convoy returns via the seaside route, Hezbollah operatives surveil the convoy, preparing for the attack.
• Explosion: A white Mitsubishi van containing the explosives suddenly detonates, causing widespread destruction and loss of life.

Notable Details:

• The explosion was so powerful that it mimicked the sonic boom of an Israeli jet, leaving a crater approximately 3 meters deep and 10 meters wide.
• Hariri's identity was confirmed through forensic evidence, including his fingernails and remnants of his tie.

Quote:

"The bomb was made of about 1200 kilograms of plastic explosive and TNT."
— Gordon Corera [25:47]

4. Immediate Aftermath and International Response

The immediate fallout saw widespread condemnation and a swift international response. A UN Commission was established to investigate the assassination, swiftly implicating Syrian authorities. The report suggested Syrian involvement, though over the years, Hezbollah's role became more apparent.

Massive demonstrations erupted in Lebanon, galvanizing public sentiment against Syria's prolonged occupation. These protests, coupled with international pressure, led to an unprecedented development: Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon after nearly three decades of dominance.

Quote:

"The fingers just get pointed"
— Gordon Corera [29:13]

5. Political Implications and Assad's Consolidation of Power

The assassination significantly destabilized the Syrian regime's hold both regionally and domestically. While externally, Syria faced immense geopolitical pressure, internally, Assad leveraged the chaos to consolidate his power, eliminating threats within his own ranks.

One pivotal figure in this power play was Ghazi Kanaan, a long-standing Syrian official in Lebanon. Following Hariri's death, Kanaan found himself entangled in the regime's tightening grip, ultimately succumbing to immense pressure reminiscent of Frankie Five Angels from The Godfather.

Quote:

"Ghazi Kanan is Frankie Five Angels... Bashar has killed Hariri months earlier."
— Gordon Corera [34:33]

6. The Godfather Parallel: Assad as Michael Corleone

A central theme of the episode is the comparison between Bashar al Assad and Michael Corleone, the fictional mafia boss from The Godfather saga. Initially perceived as a more diplomatic and modern leader, Assad's actions post-Hariri's assassination exposed his underlying ruthlessness and strategic brutality, much like Michael Corleone's transformation.

Key Parallels:

• Assassination and Power Consolidation: Hariri’s murder served as a catalyst for Assad to eliminate other opposition figures, solidifying his grip on power.
• Elimination of the Old Guard: Assad's strategic removal of established officials like Ghazi Kanaan mirrors Corleone's removal of betrayers.
• Transformation into a Ruthless Leader: The episode portrays Assad's evolution into a leader willing to resort to extreme measures to maintain control, akin to Michael Corleone's descent into darkness.

Quote:

"I think that it's possible that he actually is Michael... sort of the devastated kind of shell."
— Gordon Corera [40:17]

7. Conclusion: The Rise and Fall of a Mafia State

As the episode draws to a close, McCloskey and Corera reflect on Assad's trajectory—from a leader under international scrutiny to a figure entrenched in mafia-like politics. The assassination of Hariri not only altered the political landscape of Lebanon but also intensified Assad's internal consolidation, paving the way for the eventual decline and fall of his regime.

The hosts ponder Assad's legacy, questioning the personal costs of his power-driven decisions and the hollow victories achieved through violence and suppression. Drawing the final comparisons to Michael Corleone's isolation and downfall, they underscore the tragic arc of a leader consumed by his quest for power.

Final Quote:

"It's an amazing story and a fascinating way to understand, I think, you know, Syria and Bashar al Assad."
— Tom [38:32]

Key Takeaways

• Assassination as a Turning Point: Hariri's murder was pivotal in reshaping Lebanese politics and diminishing Syrian influence.
• Parallels to Fiction: The Godfather analogy provides a compelling framework to understand Assad's rise and eventual consolidation of power.
• Regime Dynamics: Internal power struggles and elimination of opposition were crucial in maintaining Assad's control over Syria.
• Geopolitical Impact: The events surrounding Hariri's assassination had far-reaching implications for Middle Eastern geopolitics, highlighting the fragile interplay between national ambitions and international pressures.

This episode of The Rest Is Classified masterfully intertwines historical events with cinematic narratives, offering listeners a nuanced perspective on the complexities of Syrian politics and the enduring impact of political assassinations.

Transcript

[David]

This episode is brought to you by our new friends at NordVPN.

[Gordon]

Now, Gordon, you were ecstatic to hear.

[David]

That NordVPN, who protect your Internet connection and privacy online, are our very first sponsor, weren't you?

[Tom]

That's right, David. Because I've actually been a NordVPN user for a year now. I signed up even before I signed up for the podcast. As someone who's reported on national security, I do deal occasionally with sensitive information, which means I take my own cybersecurity pretty seriously. So I wanted a VPN and I chose NORD to give me the best security and privacy.

[David]

Now, I'm former CIA and so not.

[Gordon]

Very concerned with privacy, but definitely with privacy.

[David]

And I've been very pleased to know that NORDVPN has the ability to shield your online activities from hackers, to encrypt your connection when using public WI fi, for example, at a coffee shop. And if you're keen to be extra safe, you can activate a double vpn.

[Gordon]

Which makes you even more secure.

[Tom]

So if you want to make sure you're safe online, you should take advantage of our exclusive NORDVPN discount. All you need to do is go to nordvpn.com restisclassified and when you sign up, you can receive a bonus. Four months on top of your plan. And there's no risk with Nord's 30 day money back guarantee. The link is also in the episode description box.

[Alexandra]

Exclusively on AMC and amc.

[Frankie]

There's a black cloud that hangs over our family.

[Alexandra]

Anne Rice's Mayfair Witches return.

[Frankie]

Slasher's out there hunting Mayfair women.

[Alexandra]

You're gonna have a battle on your hands. Starring Alexandra Daddario.

[Frankie]

I'm gonna take care of it.

[Tom]

Of him.

[Alexandra]

Surrender to the darkness.

[Gordon]

It's not.

[Tom]

Not a sin to kill the devil.

[Alexandra]

Anne Rice's Mayfair witches new season January 5th. Exclusively on AMC and AMC.

[Frankie]

This episode is brought to you by Dutch Bros. Big smiles, rocking tunes and epic drinks. Dutch Bros. Is all about you. Choose from a variety of customizable handcrafted beverages like our Rebel Energy drinks, coffees, teas and more. Download the Dutch Bros. App for a free medium drink. Plus find your nearest shop, order ahead and start earning rewards offer valid for new app users only. Free medium drink Reward upon registration. 14 day expiration terms apply.

[Gordon]

See DutchBros.com you were around when the.

[David]

Old timers decided how the families should.

[Gordon]

Be organized and how they based them on. The old Roman legions called them regimes.

[David]

With the capos and the soldiers.

[Gordon]

And it worked.

[Tom]

Yeah, it worked. Those were the great old days, you know, and we was like the Roman Empire. The Corleone family was like the Roman Empire.

[Gordon]

It was once, Frankie. When a plot against the Emperor failed, the plotters were always given a chance to let their families keep their fortunes.

[Tom]

Yeah, but only the rich guys, Tom. The little guys, they got knocked off and all their estates went to the Emperors. Unless they went home and they killed themselves, then nothing happened. And their families. Their families were taken care of. Tom.

[Gordon]

That was a good break, a nice deal.

[Tom]

Yeah, they. They went home, sat in a hot bath, opened up their veins and bled to death. And sometimes they had a little party before they did it.

[Gordon]

Don't worry about anything, Frankie Five Angels.

[Tom]

Thanks, Tom. Thanks. See ya, Tom.

[Gordon]

Adio, Frankie.

[Tom]

Welcome. The rest is classified. That was dialogue from. Well, it was supposed to be dialogue from a memorable scene in The Godfather Part 2. I'm not sure what it actually was. When Tom Hagen visits Frankie Pentangeli. Frankie Five Angels.

[David]

Frankie Five Angels.

[Tom]

Frankie Five Angels. And he hints at the way he can protect his family after his treachery against the Corleone family. Now, the reason, if anyone's joining us, that we are talking, it needs no explanation. I think it does need an explanation. Daniel.

[Gordon]

He stands alone.

[Tom]

No, I think we need to explain why I'm reading dialogue quite badly from a great film, which is that we are actually looking not at the film the Godfather, but the story of Bashar al Assad in Syria. And the parallels, the freakish parallels in some ways between him and the kind of mafia crime family of the Corleone's, who we see in the Godfather. And where we'd left it was this new guy. Bashar Al Assad had taken over the family, the family business of running Syria in 2000. He wasn't supposed to be the leader, but he'd been thrust into that position a bit like the character Michael, I guess, from the Godfather films. And the question is, you know, do the hard guys think he's up to it? Can he run this family? And part of that is running Lebanon as a vassal state as a neighboring country, which Syria uses as a cash cow. It's their kind of Vegas, the place where they party, where they make money and they exert their control. And the question is, with a new leader in Lebanon, Rafiq Hariri, who seems to want to show a bit more independence, pivot a bit to other countries into the west, how are the Syrian leaders? How is Bashar al Assad going to deal with that threat to the family and to the power base? And that's where we left it.

[David]

Well, and I think the threat to the family is so critical there, Gordon.

[Gordon]

Because, you know, of course, in this wonderful, likely Oscar winning performance that you.

[David]

And I both just gave, reading that.

[Gordon]

Scene, we have Frankie Five Angels, who has betrayed the family, become a rat.

[David]

Gone and testified to the police. And Tom Hagen, the sort of family.

[Gordon]

Consigliere, is hinting that all will be.

[David]

Well for Frankie's family if he just kills himself. And in fact, what we're going to see is one of those hard men.

[Gordon]

That you're talking about in the regime in Damascus in our story is going to face the exact same situation later in this tale. But I think, Gordon, before we get there, we should set the scene a little bit with this conflict between Bashar.

[David]

Al Assad and Rafiq Hariri and kind.

[Gordon]

Of what's going on, frankly, regionally and.

[David]

Geopolitically at this time in 2004 between Syria and Lebanon.

[Gordon]

Now, this is a period after the US Invasion of Iraq where the Bush administration is looking at Syria and looking at this country run by this guy.

[David]

That, frankly, I think most people in the Bush administration at the time would.

[Gordon]

Have considered to be sort of like.

[Tom]

Fredo, we should say, is the younger brother, the weaker of the Korleoni sons.

[Gordon]

That's right. And they see Bashar as being a spoiler in Iraq. Syria shares a large border with Iraq. We have a massive number of US.

[David]

Troops in Iraq at this time. The Syrians are sort of facilitating the flow of jihadis into Iraq or killing US Soldiers, killing Iraqi civilians. The Syrians are occupying Lebanon. They're sort of running contrary to the Bush administration's, you know, kind of freedom agenda in this period.

[Gordon]

And the Americans, the French under Chirac, sort of looking for reasons to kick at Bashar.

[Tom]

They're also trying to kind of because, you know, you have this fascinating visit where, you know, Tony Blair, who's British prime minister, goes to Damascus and they bring Bashar al Assad and his wife, you know, to London for a state visit or a kind of big visit, meeting the queen. And they're also trying to kind of basically say to him, you know, move away from your past, give up the bad ways of crime and the mafia business and, you know, become a normal state. That's their kind of message, isn't it? And they're trying a bit of stick and a bit of carrot on Bashar al Assad, but he's also got, within his own regime, he's got people who are the hardliners, who are used to making the money, who are used to using violence to get their way, who certainly don't want to move in that direction. And this is now starting to come to a head, particularly over this issue of Rafi Khairi's kind of push for greater independence in Lebanon.

[David]

It recalls, of course, the great line.

[Gordon]

Gordon, from the Godfather of every time I try to get out, they pull me back in. I think Bashar in this period, there's enough uncertainty about him as a leader.

[David]

As a man, frankly.

[Gordon]

You have Blair going to Damascus, you've got engagement with Bashar, but you also.

[David]

Have this undercurrent of sort of mafia.

[Gordon]

Politics that is proving very difficult, frankly. And he doesn't want to get rid of it.

[David]

He's leaning into it to help consolidate his power.

[Gordon]

Now what ends up happening in 2004.

[David]

Is that a UN resolution is passed, authored largely in Washington and Paris and.

[Gordon]

I think also a bit in London, that basically calls for the removal of.

[David]

The Syrian military from Lebanon and to.

[Gordon]

The occupation, the disarmament of Hezbollah, and.

[David]

Free and fair elections in Lebanon. And Rafiq Hariri, there's still a lot of merc around this.

[Gordon]

I mean, some of his detractors will say that he basically authored this resolution.

[David]

On his yacht in Sardinia and then sent it to the French to sort of push for.

[Gordon]

But in any case, it really serves his interests. You know, it forces, I think, from.

[David]

An international perspective, Lebanon up onto equal footing with Syria and really dramatically threatens Bashar's control over the country.

[Gordon]

And of course, you know, Bashar and.

[David]

All of his capos in the regime.

[Gordon]

Are absolutely incensed by this resolution and blame Rafiq Hariri personally for pushing it through.

[Tom]

And where we'd left it last time as well was this idea that Syria then is going to use Hezbollah, this group inside Lebanon, to try and go after Hariri effectively and as we saw, not just, you know, pressure him politically, but actually personally to go after him and put him under surveillance.

[David]

Well, and the Syrians start to really turn the heat up.

[Gordon]

You know, Hariri and his allies start getting death threats.

[David]

Hariri gets handed kind of a list of cabinet ministers the Syrians want to approve for the next government, which the.

[Gordon]

Subtext in Lebanon is you actually want.

[David]

Your allies to run some of the more cash generating ministries so you can skim something off the top.

[Gordon]

You know, telecoms, energy, things like that.

[David]

Those are taken away from Hariri.

[Gordon]

And it honestly makes me think, Gordon.

[David]

That Hariri, if we're carrying through the.

[Gordon]

Sort of Godfather analogies here, that Hariri is hyman Roth, who is the ultra wealthy pseudo business partner of Michael in The Godfather Part 2, who attempts to.

[David]

Kill Michael or unseat him.

[Gordon]

And then Michael comes back at him in sort of this spat over money.

[David]

And turf as it relates to gambling and Cuba. So I think Hariri in this analogy is Hyman Roth.

[Gordon]

And it starts to get very violent.

[David]

Of course, in this turf war. The economy minister in Lebanon, who's a Hariri ally, is nearly killed in a bombing in September of 2004. His bodyguard dies.

[Gordon]

And it's sort of this insult to, of course, the family and to Hariri.

[David]

The shredded brain and teeth and tongue are actually handed to the family in.

[Gordon]

An official envelope from the Lebanese security forces.

[David]

Kind of this message, right, of like, this is what happens when you oppose us.

[Tom]

It's the equivalent of the horse's head in your bed.

[Gordon]

Horsehead.

[Tom]

The horse head in your bed in the Godfather films, which is the message, you know, we're coming for you.

[David]

And Bashar's enforcer in Lebanon, this guy who we met in the last episode.

[Gordon]

Named Rustam Ghazali, calls, you know, and basically says, oh, you know, it's.

[David]

It's not worth investing investigating the bombing. It's probably the work of the Israelis. And so it joins this kind of.

[Gordon]

Long list of assassinations in Lebanon that.

[David]

That are not investigated. Now, there are some signs in Syria that Assad is starting to kind of.

[Gordon]

Move against this older guard of mafia.

[David]

Bosses that helped his father. There's actually a former army chief of.

[Gordon]

Staff who's one of Bashar's dad's oldest comrades who's pushed out of Syria.

[David]

Essentially, he departs in that year and he goes to California where he's going to live until his death.

[Gordon]

So you're starting to see these rumbles under the surface of kind of the really deep things in the regime beginning to move.

[David]

Bashar and his guys are starting to move against this older crowd.

[Gordon]

And in October of that year, Syria.

[David]

And Bashar and their allies force Hariri out as prime minister of Lebanon. He resigns in October of 2004 and.

[Gordon]

Then immediately starts working to build a political coalition to compete in elections the following May.

[Tom]

So at this point, do you think that Bashar wanted to kill him? Do you think it is that kind of personal thing? Or do you think he's being pushed into it by other hardliners in the regime who are saying, you need to show you're tough enough or something like that? I mean, do we think Bashar himself is the person who wants to do.

[Gordon]

This I think he wants to do it. I think he understands that there are real risks that go along with it. But at the same time, you know.

[David]

You consider Bashar's mentality. You know, he is the leader of Syria. Lebanon belongs to Syria belongs to him.

[Gordon]

This is a family business.

[David]

It's part of his turf, it's part of his racket. This guy Hariri is a guy that Bashar at this point has hated for.

[Gordon]

Over a decade and who is standing in the way. And.

[David]

And I think the accounts of Bashar's.

[Gordon]

Personality I think are a little bit illustrative here because, you know, we described.

[David]

Him in the prior episode as he's.

[Gordon]

Kind of shy, he's awkward, he's a bit withdrawn.

[David]

It takes a little while for him.

[Gordon]

To kind of step into, you know, his dictator boots. But I think by this period you also hear these stories of like, Bashar has these flashes of anger, of aggression.

[David]

He is becoming a more domineering person.

[Gordon]

You know, there's actually stories of this time in Syria where Bashar, who I would say had been romantically unsuccessful when he was in his brother's shadow, is starting to become kind of a sex maniac and is starting to sleep with.

[David]

Any woman in the Syrian elite who.

[Gordon]

He can, including the wives of sort.

[David]

Of business partners and friends and other officials.

[Gordon]

And I think he's starting to develop this kind of narcissistic again. I mean, it's a little bit like you see the devolution of Michael Corleone in the Godfather films, where he's going from becoming this kind of, you know.

[David]

Second son who's maybe not going to.

[Gordon]

Be able to take over to becoming a ruthless person who will do whatever it takes to survive. And Bashar is sort of exerting his.

[David]

Authority in the Syrian system. I think he understands that killing Hariri.

[Gordon]

Would be the last resort, but they're.

[David]

Willing to do it.

[Gordon]

And I think we see in this period of kind of winter of 2004 that what is actually happening in Lebanon.

[David]

Is this very threatening coalition of all.

[Gordon]

The different kind of sectarian groups in Lebanon is starting to form.

[David]

And Hariri is now part of this.

[Gordon]

Where they're pushing for Syria to get out of Lebanon. And so Rustam Ghazali, who is Assad's dome headed thug enforcer in Lebanon, is.

[David]

Sent to meet with Hariri on the 9th of January, 2005.

[Gordon]

And he is there, I think, in.

[David]

An attempt to sort of shove something down Hariri's throat to see if the Syrians can get this guy to comply.

[Gordon]

And it sounds like kind of a mundane thing, but Ghazali is there basically.

[David]

To say, you, Hariri, are going to add some pro Syrian candidates to your parliamentary lists in the upcoming election. And Hariri basically says no. And so what he has done there.

[Gordon]

And I think this is the moment where Hariri has crossed the Rubicon, as it were, because Hariri has disobeyed a direct order from the Don. And Hariri at this point, I think.

[David]

Probably begins to know that something is.

[Gordon]

Cooking against him and it might be violence because he's starting to speak to the Syrian vice president almost daily. And in this period, the Syrian vice.

[David]

President, who's another one of these old.

[Gordon]

Guard guys, begins warning Hariri and basically.

[David]

Saying, you need to get on a.

[Gordon]

Plane and get out of Lebanon because something bad is coming.

[Tom]

Best to get out of town. Which is a kind of half friendly warning, half threat, isn't it? When you say something like that, you know, you know what it kind of means. And he's right, isn't he? Because at this point, Hariri is actually, although, you know, he may not realize it, coming under surveillance. I mean, he is being watched by Hezbullah, who are starting to build up a detailed pattern of life, as it's called, you know, his daily movements, which is clearly about, you know, preparing for the possibility of bumping him off.

[Gordon]

So on the topic of Hezbollah, it's very ironic actually, because Hariri and the leader of Hezbollah have actually been meeting regularly throughout that kind of fall and.

[David]

Into early 2005 in Hezbollah strongholds in.

[Gordon]

The southern suburbs of Beirut.

[David]

And Hezbollah has been managing the transport and security for these meetings. And what we now know from all.

[Gordon]

Of this sort of analysis of telecoms, telecom towers and phones in Beirut is that in this time period, there were.

[David]

Multiple Hezbollah surveillance teams following Hariri.

[Gordon]

And Bashar's enforcer in Lebanon, Rustam Ghazali.

[David]

Had been going to the southern suburbs.

[Gordon]

Of Beirut to meet with Hezbollah leadership, probably to plan the killing that is to come. So this is going on throughout the.

[David]

Kind of early months of 2005.

[Gordon]

They acquire critically, a white Mitsubishi van. And Hariri, unbeknownst to him and his security detail, which is quite large, is being followed around Beirut. And so we come to Valentine's Day, February 14, 2005.

[David]

It's the morning. Hariri is going that day to a parliamentary session on electoral law.

[Gordon]

He gets up, he has breakfast, he has lebna, which is kind of this strained yogurt dish.

[David]

He got toast, he has cucumbers for breakfast, kind of a light breakfast. He's watching his weight.

[Gordon]

I described him in the last episode.

[David]

As a bit of a kind of Mario like figure.

[Gordon]

So he's a little, he's a little.

[David]

Portly, a little jolly. So he's watching his weight.

[Gordon]

He's had high blood pressure for many.

[David]

Years which has been accentuated by his death struggle with the Syrians.

[Gordon]

He is reading the newspapers, he's having.

[David]

His customary double espresso. His personal secretary has actually noted that his hair has turned silver almost overnight from the stress of this period. Now by 7:30 in the morning, his.

[Gordon]

Security team, which if you're imagining Gordon team of like five or six heavies.

[David]

It'S not that it's about a hundred.

[Gordon]

People across, you know, his residence and sort of his life.

[David]

They've completed the kind of checks, the daily checks they do for bombs around his vehicles and around his residence.

[Tom]

I mean he drives in a convoy of vehicles, doesn't he? I mean he is, he, he is clearly a man who knows his life is at risk. He must realise that.

[Gordon]

He absolutely realises that.

[David]

And he's driving an armoured Mercedes S600 which is kind of this sort of steel and high tech fibre bodywork.

[Tom]

And he likes to drive it himself, doesn't he?

[Gordon]

He likes to drive it himself but he's protected. I mean we should say, you know, he's got this armoured car, he's got run flat tires on it, a self.

[David]

Sealing fuel tank so if they're shot.

[Gordon]

Up or shot at, they can get out of there.

[David]

He's got three convoy protection vehicles. Each are equipped with at the time.

[Gordon]

State of the art jammers, the strongest available commercial product for jamming, which are.

[Tom]

Supposed to stop remote controlled bombs being set off. So they know that that's a possibility.

[Gordon]

They know it's a possibility. I mean we talked about how, you know, the economy Minister had a bomb.

[David]

Placed in his car months earlier. So I mean Hariri knows that something could be coming. So around 10:30 in the morning that convoy leaves. As you know, Gordon Hariri's driving and.

[Gordon]

They go to parliament for the meetings.

[David]

That Hariri is going to have there during the day.

[Gordon]

So he has those meetings. It's a few minutes before 1pm, Hariri's finished up.

[David]

He's gone over to this cafe called.

[Gordon]

Cafe de la Toile near the parliament building.

[David]

He's met with a couple journalists and.

[Gordon]

Politicians and they're getting ready to go.

[David]

Back to Hariri's residence.

[Gordon]

Now there are three routes back to Hariri's residence. And this is where those months of.

[David]

Surveillance are so critical, because there are Hezbollah operatives who absolutely understand that he's got three options.

[Gordon]

And what happens on that day is.

[David]

They take the seaside route kind of along the Cornish and Beirut, because middle of the day, that is going to.

[Gordon]

Be, I think it's a little bit longer, kilometer wise, mileage wise, but it's.

[David]

Going to be faster. So that that caravan of cars, that security convoy, head back on the seaside route.

[Tom]

If you're Hezbollah, you've got to have spotters all along the route, surely, to know which route he's going to take and then tell someone else, is that right?

[David]

That's right.

[Gordon]

And in fact, there's a Hezbollah operative who is watching this convoy move. And as soon as he notes that they're taking the seaside route, he punches a number into his phone and then.

[David]

He makes three more calls, all to numbers sort of in the immediate vicinity. They're all covering the other routes because they don't exactly know which one he's going to choose.

[Gordon]

Right. So the operative there says, okay, you.

[David]

Know, he's taking the seaside route.

[Gordon]

Now, once these phones are done with their calls that day, the phones are never going to be used again.

[David]

It's a closed network of kind of throwaway phones. Now, one of the four people who's.

[Gordon]

Called is the driver of a white Mitsubishi Canter van which is idling by.

[David]

The St. George Hotel.

[Tom]

Now, we should say St. George's Hotel is a very famous hotel.

[Gordon]

It is a very famous hotel.

[Tom]

So in terms of spy history for, for those interested in spy history of this podcast, it was the place to be in the 50s and 60s. I mean, I once visited it actually, before this bomb went off, partly because it was where Kim Philby used to hang out, the British traitor from MI6. And he used to kind of get wildly drunk there, actually, with someone I once interviewed. And they said George's Hotel was the place to be. So I think, you know, it's quite a famous spot.

[Gordon]

Well, and it's about to make a little bit more history because that van.

[David]

Is going to sort of inch slowly down the main road and there's traffic.

[Gordon]

Kind of whizzing by. It's going very slowly and it passes the covered entrance to the St. George.

[David]

Beach Club and it stops and it kind of weirdly double parks a car that's already there on the side.

[Gordon]

But it's strange because it's the only.

[David]

Car outside the hotel and it's just been double parked by this van. So it's Kind of unnecessarily jutting out into traffic.

[Gordon]

Now, the convoy, we should say the lead vehicle is a Toyota Land Cruiser. It's loaded up with four policemen.

[David]

It's followed by a Mercedes S500 driven by Hariri's head of security.

[Gordon]

It's got two other bodyguards inside. Hariri's driving the third vehicle, and then he's got two more behind him, each carrying three bodyguards. So each one in the back is.

[David]

Kind of covering a flank of Hariri's.

[Gordon]

Car, the right side or the left side. And then there's a trailing vehicle, which is a converted Chevy, but it's actually an ambulance. It kind of looks like a hearse, and it's carrying a couple medics. I mean, so this is like a head of state kind of caravan cruising.

[Tom]

Through Beirut, both bodyguards and a medic. I mean, you kind of know you're at risk. But they clearly thought they'd taken all the precautions they need to and had all the security and the kind of armored car that would protect them, this kind of route.

[David]

So the convoy kind of barrels past.

[Gordon]

This white Mitsubishi van. First the Land Cruiser, then the chief of security is Mercedes. Now, when Hariri's car goes alongside, an unseen finger somewhere presses a switch. And the eyewitness accounts from this afternoon in Beirut are that almost everybody initially thought it was the sonic boom of.

[David]

An Israeli Air Force jet.

[Gordon]

Now, the first vehicle is rocketed forward.

[David]

By this massive blast. Everyone survives to look at the scene.

[Gordon]

And it is an absolute pit of carnage. There are arms, legs, pools of flesh everywhere.

[David]

One of the bodyguards from the rear.

[Gordon]

Vehicle ends up being identified only by.

[David]

Like, little scattered pieces of skin and muscle recovered and then DNA tested. And then after this massive, massive blast.

[Gordon]

There'S gunfire, but no one is shooting. And it's actually the rounds from the.

[David]

Weapons that Hariri's bodyguards had in the.

[Gordon]

Cars that are cooking off in the.

[David]

Heat from the blast. And almost a thousand rounds go off in total. So there's glass all over the street. Every window from the Phoenicia Hotel, which.

[Gordon]

I understand is where that kind of.

[David]

Arab summit was, right?

[Gordon]

The Phoenicia is a lot nicer than the St. George in this period.

[David]

Every window from the Phoenicia Hotel has been blown out onto the street. And the blast was so powerful.

[Gordon]

And again, I think the testimonies here.

[David]

From Nick Blanford's wonderful book, Killing Mr.

[Gordon]

Lebanon, are so visceral because the blast.

[David]

Was so powerful that it warped and splintered door frames inside the hotel.

[Gordon]

Like down inside the hotel. Now, the crater that's left is about.

[David]

3 meters deep and 10 meters wide.

[Gordon]

And what investigators will discover later is.

[David]

That the bomb was made of about 1200 kilograms of plastic explosive and TNT. At the end of the day, there.

[Gordon]

Are 23 people dead, 220 wounded. Hariri, one of the dead, ends up.

[David]

Being id'd by his fingernails and little scraps of his tie.

[Tom]

And so with that huge crater in the streets of Beirut and with Rafi Kari now dead, this is a moment which is going to change Lebanon, it's also going to change Syria, and it's going to change the Middle East. But before we look at all that, let's take a quick break. This episode is brought to you by our new friends at NordVPN. Now, David, in the 20 or so minutes that listeners have heard so far, how many phishing sites have been launched?

[David]

Phishing is a scam technique to obtain sensitive information from people by sending out fake emails or text messages. And I'm sure every single one of our listeners has either received one or heard of one at some point. Hackers pretend to be from reputable companies and they try to manipulate you to click on malicious links. And unfortunately, a new phishing site is launched every 20 seconds, so probably about 60 in that time.

[Tom]

Wow. Well, I have good news. You can use NordVPN's threat protection software to stay safe from these. It will scan your files that you download, help you avoid malicious links and block dodgy ads. It also has a dark web monitor which will let you know if your credentials end up in the hands of a hacker.

[David]

To stay secure online, you should take advantage of our exclusive NORDVPN discount. All you need to do is go to nordvpn.com restisclassified when you sign up, you can receive a bonus 4 months on top of your plan and there's no risk with Nord's 30 day money back guarantee. The link is also in the episode description box.

[Alexandra]

This episode is brought to you by Shopify. Upgrade your business with Shopify, home of the number one checkout on the planet. Shop pay boosts conversions up to 50%, meaning fewer carts going abandoned and more sales going cha Ching. So if you're into growing your business, get a commerce platform that's ready to sell wherever your customers are. Visit shopify.com to upgrade your selling today. Curious about how you can achieve smooth, natural looking, long lasting filler results? The Juvederm collection of fillers has six unique gel fillers that add subtle volume and are designed for different needs in specific areas of the face like lips, cheeks, chin, smile, lines under eyes and jawline. Ask your licensed specialist for a full face assessment today and download the Ally app, that's a L L E, the official loyalty program of Juvederm to save on treatments and get a look that's true to you. For important safety information and to find a licensed specialist, visit juvederm.com that's J-U V E--E-R M.com not for people with severe allergic reactions, allergies to lidocaine or the proteins used in Juvederm. Common side effects include injection site redness, swell, pain, tenderness, firmness, lumps, bumps, bruising, discoloration or itching. There's a risk of unintentional injection into a blood vessel, which can cause vision abnormalities, blindness, stroke, temporary scabs or scarring. Talk to a licensed specialist to find out if it's right for you.

[Tom]

Welcome back. We're in the aftermath of this enormous explosion on the streets of Beirut which has killed Rafiq Hariri, this politician who'd become a thorn in the side of Bashar al Assad. And I mean, it must be pretty obvious immediately because of, you know, that history of bad blood, who was behind this, mustn't it, David?

[Gordon]

Almost nobody thought it was anybody other.

[David]

Than the Syrians and Bashar.

[Gordon]

I mean, the fingers sort of get pointed.

[David]

And in fact, I mean, there's tremendous fallout from this assassination almost immediately. You know, there's a UN Commission that gets spun up to look into it.

[Gordon]

And there's a very sensational report that comes out almost right away that kind.

[David]

Of points the finger at the Syrians.

[Gordon]

I think the element of this that.

[David]

Was a little bit, frankly, unknown at the time and has only come to light over the years was the role of Hezbollah in the killing.

[Gordon]

I think everyone assumed it was the Syrians.

[David]

I mean, there had been horns locked between Rafi Khari and Bashar for years at that point.

[Gordon]

And the Syrian kind of role in.

[David]

This, I think, was assumed. I think Hezbollah was a little bit more mysterious.

[Gordon]

But nonetheless, within a couple months of the assassination, there's been a groundswell in Lebanon. I mean, it's kind of this turning point in Lebanese politics where you have.

[David]

Massive demonstrations against Syria's occupation.

[Gordon]

You have a political sort of coalition.

[David]

That had been gelling prior to the assassination, but that is really brought together by it and by the massive amount.

[Gordon]

Of international support for Bashar getting out of Lebanon. And so within a few months, the Syrians have done what almost nobody thought.

[David]

Was even in the cards, which is.

[Gordon]

They have withdrawn their military from Lebanon after almost 30 years of occupation.

[Tom]

And I mean, that is a really counterproductive moment, isn't it? Because this was supposed to be, you know, restoring control for Syria over Lebanon, and instead it's done the exact opposite. I mean, they've been forced to withdraw. What does it do, you know, within the power structures of Syria itself and to the kind of house of Assad and to his grip on the kind of mafia state and the family?

[Gordon]

Well, I think this is the part of it that frankly, if you read.

[David]

Any of the kind of contemporary accounts.

[Gordon]

Of Syria and Lebanon or the Hariri.

[David]

Assassination, and you go back to 2005.

[Gordon]

Or 2006, and in fact, I was.

[David]

Just starting on the Syria account as an analyst in 2006, and I remember.

[Gordon]

Reading Finnish intelligence reports in that time where you kind of had two things going on at once.

[David]

One was that it was clear that.

[Gordon]

Assad and his capos around him in.

[David]

The regime were under a tremendous amount of pressure, which you could kind of draw a line back to the assassination.

[Gordon]

And say, well, look, you know, you.

[David]

Guys had occupied Lebanon for 30 years.

[Gordon]

You killed this guy.

[David]

Massive groundswell of opposition to your occupation, and then you're out of there. Massive loss, right? They are being squeezed geopolitically and internationally. And yet at the same time, something.

[Gordon]

Deep inside the regime has become more assured of itself. And it feels like Assad has eliminated somebody who was a threat to his.

[David]

Hold on power even. And so you have this kind of.

[Gordon]

Interesting dichotomy, I guess, of Bashar is weaker kind of regionally and stronger inside.

[David]

The house of Asad.

[Gordon]

And where this becomes, I think, again, you know, the Godfather reference here and the wonderful dialogue that you and I so artfully and beautifully read at the start of this episode where, if we.

[David]

Recall, this old guard guy named Ghazi Kanaan, who had been the proconsul of in Lebanon for almost 20 years and who had kind of fallen out with.

[Gordon]

Bashar, he was getting paid off by Hariri.

[David]

He was kind of one of Hariri's.

[Gordon]

Guys in the fall of 2005.

[David]

So just a few months after Hariri.

[Gordon]

Is killed, you get these weird rumors.

[David]

That start circulating in Damascus and Beirut that there's like a search on in Washington for a replacement for Bashar. You know, you've got this massive international pressure. The Bush administration wants Bashar gone. You know, maybe they'll draw this person from the army, the intelligence services.

[Gordon]

You get the strange kind of damascene rumor mill going.

[David]

And then on October 10, Ghazi Kanan, he tries to arrange a meeting with.

[Gordon]

Bashar, and he doesn't get the meeting.

[David]

And then on the morning of the.

[Gordon]

12Th, it's a strange thing. Ghazi Kanan reads aloud a statement on.

[David]

A radio station in Lebanon. He goes on this kind of long.

[Gordon]

Monologue justifying Syria's role in Lebanon.

[David]

And it ends very ominously with the.

[Gordon]

Statement, I believe this is the last statement I might make. And that same morning, Qanan spends a.

[David]

Few hours out of the office, and Syrian authorities later say, okay, he's at home.

[Gordon]

But another source has said he actually.

[David]

Went to the French embassy and made a couple calls to this exiled Syrian politician in Paris. Unable to reach him, goes back to his office. And after 10am A gunshot is heard from his office at the Interior Ministry.

[Gordon]

And an aide goes in. And Ghazi Kanan, who had ruled Lebanon.

[David]

For about 20 years, is lying on the floor having convulsions. There's a.38 caliber bullet lodged in his mouth.

[Tom]

And so the assumption is that he has killed himself, because he's basically been faced with that choice, which is, this is your way out, and if you don't take the way out mob style, then maybe your family will pay the price, as we heard in that opening monologue from the Godfather. Is that right?

[Gordon]

Ghazi Kanan is Frankie Five Angels. You know, he's somebody who had collaborated with Hariri, had grown rich working with Hariri, and who probably never really thought Bashar should have been president or taken over, and who ran afoul of Bashar and his capos. And Bashar had killed Hariri months earlier.

[David]

Kind of killed Ghazi Kanan's patron.

[Gordon]

And I am sure that somebody was sent from the Assad family to talk to Ghazi Kanan and say, you know.

[David]

Your family, which, by the way, his.

[Gordon]

Family, you know, they stayed in Syria.

[David]

Your family will be okay if you do what's necessary.

[Gordon]

Just like Tom Hagen tells Frankie Five.

[David]

Angels that everything will be okay. You know, go home and open up.

[Gordon]

Your wrists in a bath. And just like that, you know, Bashar has, in 2005, gone from this kind of uncertain control over the corridors of power in Damascus to really the unquestioned, consolidated kind of leader of Syria.

[Tom]

So as we come to a close, I guess it is worth going back to that kind of Godfather parallel, because, of course, at the end of the first film, Michael Corleone, who's taken over the family, there's a kind of moment at the christening, isn't there? And then all his enemies, you see them getting bumped off one by one in a coordinated way, and you suddenly realize he has changed, he has become his father in a way. He is, he's, you know, moved from the kind of softer figure he might have been at the start to this kind of hard figure who's willing to do what it takes. And that, in a way, is the journey of Bashar al Assad with this murder of Rafiq Hariri, isn't it? You know, he was a figure who's being fated who Tony Blair and George Bush were trying to win over. You know, with state visits and visits to the queen and his wife being this kind of Princess Diana like figure being described. And yet suddenly now a different Bashar al Assad has emerged from this process of this period. And I guess this is the mafia state that Syria is going to become.

[David]

Well, and really, I think it shows.

[Gordon]

Us that, you know, the mafia politics.

[David]

That we've been talking so much about, which continued up to the very end.

[Gordon]

Of Bashar's rule, were, you know, a.

[David]

Feature of the system. It's not this bug, right?

[Gordon]

I mean, even just in the past five or so years, I mean, Bashar's.

[David]

Wife, Asma, who we talked about in.

[Gordon]

The prior episode, Acton girl, daughter of.

[David]

A cardiologist in London.

[Gordon]

I mean, she's running more and more.

[David]

Of the economy in Syria.

[Gordon]

You had, I mean, and we're seeing even today, you know, some reports about.

[David]

These drug production facilities, captagon production facilities being unearthed in Syria now that Assad has fled.

[Gordon]

You know, the Syrians were. And we talked about this in the.

[David]

Emergency pod that we did last week.

[Gordon]

That, you know, Syria essentially became a narco state.

[David]

And all of the cash flow from.

[Gordon]

That was filtering back to Bashar and.

[David]

The people around him.

[Gordon]

So the mafioso kind of nature of.

[David]

This regime, it is the deep thing that sustained it in many ways. And we see in this period of the kind of run up to killing Hariri, telling Ghazi Kanan to go, you.

[Gordon]

Know, take a Roman bath. I mean, you're kind of seeing, I.

[David]

Think Bashar and the people around him.

[Gordon]

Realizing, like Michael Corleone did, that the.

[David]

Only way to control the family business is through blood.

[Tom]

And that takes a line which you can then draw to the kind of hollowing out of the state that we talked about in our emergency podcast and eventually the decline and fall of the regime just in the last few weeks. Weeks.

[Gordon]

It's been very interesting for me as.

[David]

Somebody who has spent most of his.

[Gordon]

Adult life watching Bashar al Assad and thinking about the country and the regime that he built, and now he's, you know, sort of lost and abandoned and leaving, you know, Syria in ruins, is to wonder right now. I have thought a lot in the.

[David]

Last week of what is this guy thinking about in Moscow? I know the family has properties in Moscow.

[Gordon]

His son, actually, I believe, was defending.

[David]

His dissertation on the day the rebels broke out of Idlib and began taking Aleppo. He's defending his dissertation in Moscow. He's sitting there probably in kind of seclusion now, fully under control of Putin and the Russians. And I do wonder, as he reflects, what he's thinking about in all of.

[Gordon]

This, of whether there were other ways to manage this or whether, like Michael.

[David]

You sort of led down this path bit by bit, and by the time you're conducting this violence and doing these.

[Gordon]

Terrible things, you've sort of lost yourself.

[David]

I don't know. As a longtime serial watcher, it's very interesting to ponder.

[Gordon]

And I'll tell you, Gordon, that for many years at CIA, we thought after this that Assad was Michael, that his older brother was sunny and sort of.

[David]

Brash and got killed too young, and.

[Gordon]

That Assad was the one who sort of rose from this kind of unlikely station to get a grip on Syria. And now I think. I don't know, I think that it's.

[David]

Possible that he actually is Michael.

[Gordon]

Because if you go to the end of the Godfather Part three and you watch the very final scene, you see Michael sitting alone outside of this kind of villa in Italy, having run kind.

[David]

Of to the end of his life.

[Gordon]

And he's alone. He's totally alone. He's lost his family and everybody he loves. And he's sort of this devastated kind of shell. And I think he's Michael through and through.

[David]

And we're seeing now sort of the.

[Gordon]

Hollowness of the choices that he made along the way.

[Tom]

I think that's right. And he's Michael, and he is bathed in blood for further choices, you know, he chose to make. It's an amazing story and a fascinating way to understand, I think, you know, Syria and Bashar al Assad. Next time on the Rest is Classified. Coming up around Christmas time, a special Christmas treat. A slight change of tone perhaps from the. From the Godfather to go back instead to the first chief of MI6, the first sea, and who got up to some remarkable adventures in disguise around Europe. So join us next time, and thanks for listening.

[Gordon]

Thanks for listening, everybody.