Episode Summary: The Rest Is Politics - Episode 372: Syria, al-Sharaa, and the Future of the Middle East

Release Date: February 15, 2025

Hosts:

• Alastair Campbell: Former Downing Street Director of Communications and Strategy.
• Rory Stewart: Former British cabinet minister.

Guest:

• David McCloskey: Former CIA analyst and author, expert on Syria.

1. Introduction and Setting the Stage [03:14]

Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart welcome David McCloskey to discuss the current political landscape in Syria, focusing on the newly emerged president, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Campbell references their recent successful interview with al-Sharaa and expresses interest in gaining deeper insights from McCloskey's expertise.

2. Assessing President Ahmed al-Sharaa's Prospects [04:33]

Carrie Underwood (David McCloskey) shares her impressions of al-Sharaa, noting his positive statements and cautious optimism about Syria's future:

“What unites us in peace is far greater than what divides us in war.” ([04:33])

She highlights al-Sharaa's shift away from transnational jihadist ideologies and his efforts to defeat extremist groups in northwest Syria, suggesting a potential for more stable governance.

3. US Policy and Intelligence Analysis [08:38]

Rory Stewart probes into the significance of the US placing a $10 million bounty on al-Sharaa, questioning its impact and the intelligence behind such a decision. McCloskey explains al-Sharaa's background, including his ties to Al Qaeda in Iraq and the Islamic State, which justified the bounty.

4. Internal Dynamics of the CIA Under the Trump Administration [11:00]

Alastair Campbell raises concerns about the Trump administration's stance on Syria and its implications for intelligence work. McCloskey criticizes the US foreign policy establishment for being out of touch and emphasizes the need for practical policies that advance US interests without dismissing the complexities on the ground.

5. Impact of US Isolationism on Intelligence Operations [12:57]

McCloskey discusses the potential consequences of the US moving towards isolationism:

“A statement like that, it gets us nothing. And it potentially confuses sort of friend and foe alike, which is not helpful.” ([12:57])

He emphasizes that intelligence operations remain crucial despite policy shifts, but warns that public statements undermining engagement can hinder strategic objectives.

6. Comparing the CIA's Challenges with Past Administration Policies [16:30]

The conversation shifts to the internal morale and operational challenges within the CIA under the Trump administration. McCloskey reflects on historical precedents like the 1977 “Halloween Massacre” and expresses concern over potential loyalty-based purges that could threaten the agency's apolitical stance.

7. The Future of Five Eyes Intelligence Collaboration [22:21]

McCloskey underscores the importance of the Five Eyes alliance, highlighting its role in enhancing intelligence capabilities:

“If we have 20 of something and you've got five of something... it's better to add all those things up and use them together.” ([22:21])

However, he cautions that political tensions and information leaks could jeopardize the integrity and effectiveness of this collaboration.

8. Risks Facing al-Sharaa's Presidency [30:27]

Rory Stewart asks McCloskey about the potential threats to al-Sharaa, including remnants of the former Assad regime and various armed groups. McCloskey outlines the precarious security environment:

“He has a massive number of potential groups interested in putting a bullet in his head.” ([31:16])

He elaborates on the fragmented nature of Syria's militias and the challenges al-Sharaa faces in consolidating power while preventing a drift into authoritarianism.

9. Comparative Analysis: Syria vs. Libya [46:23]

Stewart draws parallels between Syria under al-Sharaa and Libya post-Gaddafi, prompting McCloskey to differentiate the two:

“It was a repressive apparatus masquerading as a state. The state itself had become quite hollow.” ([46:23])

McCloskey explains Syria's unique political structure and the absence of a unified authoritarian grip, contrasting it with Libya's chaotic aftermath.

10. The Role of Intelligence in Predicting Regime Stability [37:56]

Following a listener's question, McCloskey discusses the unpredictability of regime collapses and the CIA's challenges in forecasting such events accurately:

“When you're dealing with a mass psychological shift that happens all at once... all you can do is put together a set of scenarios.” ([43:16])

He acknowledges the limitations of intelligence analysis in providing precise predictions but emphasizes the continuous monitoring of evolving situations.

11. Balancing Secrecy and Public Transparency [60:38]

In response to Campbell's inquiry about the balance between intelligence secrecy and public policymaking, McCloskey cites the strategic declassification around the Ukraine war as a successful example:

“There's a real place for it [public intelligence sharing].” ([62:09])

He stresses the importance of protecting sensitive sources and methods while ensuring that critical intelligence informs public policy.

12. The Human Element in Intelligence and Policy [68:04]

McCloskey shares personal insights from his time in Syria, revealing the psychological toll and ethical dilemmas faced by intelligence officers:

“I wish he [Assad] ill and despised the man and wanted to sort of give him a good scare.” ([50:04])

This segment underscores the complex human emotions intertwined with intelligence work and political decision-making.

13. Conclusion and Future Episodes [67:24]

The episode wraps up with Campbell and Stewart thanking McCloskey for his in-depth analysis. They preview upcoming episodes, including a six-part series on Edward Snowden, discussions on Greenland's geopolitical significance, and explorations of historical CIA purges.

Notable Quotes:

• “What unites us in peace is far greater than what divides us in war.” — David McCloskey ([04:33])

• “We shouldn't just waive the Al Qaeda card right now because I think it's disingenuous and, you know, disconnected from reality.” — McCloskey ([12:36])

• “If we have 20 of something and you've got five of something... it's better to add all those things up and use them together.” — McCloskey ([22:21])

• “He's got the Syrian Democratic Forces in the northeast Kurds armed group that's totally separate from HTS he has.” — McCloskey ([31:16])

• “A statement like that, it gets us nothing. And it potentially confuses sort of friend and foe alike, which is not helpful.” — McCloskey ([12:57])

Key Takeaways:

• Syria's Political Transition: President al-Sharaa represents a potential shift away from extremist influences towards more stable governance, though significant challenges remain due to fragmented militias and remnants of the Assad regime.

• US Intelligence and Policy: The Trump administration's isolationist policies may hinder effective intelligence operations and strategic policymaking, jeopardizing US interests in the Middle East.

• Importance of Alliances: The Five Eyes intelligence alliance remains crucial for global security, but internal political tensions could threaten its effectiveness.

• Challenges of Predictive Intelligence: Forecasting regime changes remains inherently uncertain, necessitating flexible and scenario-based analysis within intelligence agencies.

• Human Impact of Intelligence Work: Intelligence officers grapple with ethical dilemmas and emotional burdens, influencing their perspectives on international relations and policy decisions.

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions of Episode 372, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the multifaceted issues surrounding Syria's future and the broader implications for international intelligence and policymaking.