Podcast Summary: The Rest Is Politics – Episode 375: Germany's Fight Against the Far Right

Podcast Information

• Title: The Rest Is Politics
• Hosts: Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart
• Episode: 375. Germany's Fight Against the Far Right
• Release Date: February 26, 2025
• Social Media:
  • Twitter: @RestIsPolitics
  • Instagram: @restispolitics
• Contact: restispolitics@gmail.com

Introduction to the Episode

The episode dives deep into the recent German federal elections, exploring the political shifts within Germany and their broader implications for Europe and transatlantic relations. Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart engage in a comprehensive analysis of the rise of far-right parties, coalition-building challenges, immigration policies, and defense spending in the context of evolving US-European dynamics.

German Federal Election Overview

Timestamp: [04:08]

Rory Stewart provides a foundational overview of the recent German election results:

• Friedrich Merz's Victory: Merz, leading a traditional conservative alliance, secured the chancellorship but fell short of the anticipated margin, garnering high 20s% in votes instead of the predicted over 30%.

• AfD's Surge: The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved a significant 20% vote share, particularly excelling in former East German states where they secured up to 40% in certain areas.

• Scholz's Defeat: Olaf Scholz, representing the Social Democrats akin to the UK’s Labour Party, faced the worst defeat since the 1880s, marking a substantial decline in support.

• Die Linke's Performance: The left-wing party Die Linke performed unexpectedly well, reaching approximately 10% of the vote, partly driven by youth concerns over immigration rhetoric.

• Failing Party Thresholds: Both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Sarah Wagenknecht’s faction fell below the 5% threshold, potentially prompting election reruns due to irregularities with overseas ballots.

Notable Quote:

Rory Stewart [04:38]: "Die Linke performed incredibly well amongst young women, while the AfD did particularly well amongst young men."

Coalition Formation and Leadership Prospects

Timestamp: [06:00]

Alastair Campbell expands on the coalition possibilities post-election:

• Likely Coalition: Merz is expected to form a coalition with the Social Democrats, potentially leading to a grand coalition between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats.

• Leadership Dynamics: Boris Pistorius, the highly popular Defense Minister from the Social Democrats, is posited to play a pivotal role, either as the head of the coalition or continuing in his ministerial capacity.

• Political Stability: The collapse of Scholz's previous three-party coalition underscores the volatility and challenges in forming stable governance structures.

Notable Quote:

Alastair Campbell [06:25]: "If they've got any sense, they will put this guy, Boris Pistorius, in charge. He is the most popular politician in Germany by quite a considerable margin."

Immigration Policy and Far-Right Challenges

Timestamp: [10:38]

The discussion shifts to immigration, a central issue influencing the election:

• Merz’s Immigration Strategy: Merz advocates for a "safe third country policy," akin to the EU-Turkey deal, aiming to curb migrant influxes effectively.

• Coalition Complications: Balancing Merz’s stringent immigration views with the Social Democrats' more moderate stance presents a significant hurdle in coalition negotiations.

• AfD's Counter-Narrative: The AfD leverages immigration concerns to portray mainstream parties as outdated, undermining voter confidence in the existing political framework.

Notable Quotes:

Rory Stewart [10:45]: "The problem for Merz is that his immigration policy has to be both safe and effective without breaking European law."

Alastair Campbell [11:30]: "Merz's line of attack is powerful: 'Your votes don't count, you're illegitimate, you're all neo-Nazis,' etc., pushing back against leftist narratives."

Linguistic Nuances and Media Interpretation

Timestamp: [12:45]

A nuanced discussion on the German language's impact on political messaging:

• Translation Challenges: Alastair Campbell recounts the mistranslation of Merz's term "gleichgültig," initially translated as "indifferent" but implying a stronger stance on European independence.

• Media Framing: The hosts highlight how translations can alter the perceived intensity of political statements, affecting public interpretation and sentiment.

Notable Quote:

Alistair Campbell [13:14]: "Your mother-in-law is 'gleichgültig' about whether you go on holiday to France or Spain. It's like, I'm not that bothered."

Defense Spending and NATO Implications

Timestamp: [32:36]

Rory Stewart delves into Germany's defense spending plans and their broader implications:

• Increased Defense Budget: The UK is set to raise defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, intending to reallocate funds by cutting overseas aid and development assistance.

• Impact on NATO: These budgetary shifts could influence NATO dynamics, potentially prompting other European nations to reassess their defense commitments.

• Germany's Strategic Shift: With Merz at the helm, Germany may pursue independent defense strategies, diverging from longstanding reliance on US military support.

Notable Quote:

Rory Stewart [32:36]: "Germany is in a very interesting position. Schulz announced a 100 billion euro package, aiming to become a major defense power, but problems reminiscent of Britain's recruitment issues have surfaced."

Transatlantic Relations and US Political Shifts

Timestamp: [34:18]

The hosts analyze the evolving relationship between Europe and the US under the Trump administration:

• Perceived US Indifference: Merz's comment on America being "gleichgültig" signals a potential cooling of the traditionally strong transatlantic alliance.

• Macron's Diplomacy: French President Emmanuel Macron's recent visit to the US highlights efforts to secure security guarantees amidst shifting US policies.

• Trump's Stance on Ukraine: Discussion on how Trump's policies have shifted US support for Ukraine, impacting European defense and security strategies.

Notable Quote:

Rory Stewart [34:52]: "As America shifts from being the unquestionable ally to something even neutral towards us, everything has suddenly turned on its head."

Macron's Interaction with Trump and European Security

Timestamp: [37:18]

A detailed examination of Macron's diplomatic efforts with President Trump:

• Press Conference Dynamics: Macron engaged in substantive dialogue, correcting Trump's misinformation about US and European financial commitments to Ukraine.

• Security Guarantees: Macron persistently emphasized the need for US security guarantees for Europe and Ukraine, though Trump remained evasive.

• Impact on European Unity: The interaction underscores the fragility of European unity in the face of inconsistent US leadership.

Notable Quote:

Alastair Campbell [40:06]: "Macron did very effectively get the balance right between the sort of ego stroking and the substantive points about Ukrainian resilience and Russian aggression."

Implications for European Defense Independence

Timestamp: [53:27]

Rory Stewart reflects on the historical and future aspects of European defense:

• Historical Context: Drawing parallels to Charles de Gaulle's pursuit of French defense independence post-Suez, highlighting the long-term challenge of reducing reliance on US military support.

• Future Prospects: Emphasizes the necessity for Europe to develop its own defense capabilities, investing significantly in military infrastructure and innovation.

• Economic Opportunities: Suggests that increased defense spending could drive technological advancements and economic revival within Europe.

Notable Quote:

Rory Stewart [53:27]: "If Europe is serious about getting its act together, as you and I have been saying, then we're talking about sums of money and commitment that could redefine Europe's role on the global stage."

Conclusion and Future Outlook

Timestamp: [56:44]

As the episode draws to a close, Campbell and Stewart summarize the critical challenges and opportunities ahead:

• Strategic Adversaries: The unpredictable nature of US foreign policy under Trump poses significant strategic challenges for Europe, necessitating robust contingency planning.

• Defense as a Path Forward: Aligning defense and security policies could serve as a cornerstone for rebuilding transatlantic relations and asserting European autonomy.

• Policy Recommendations: Hosts advocate for pragmatic and swift coalition-building in Germany, comprehensive immigration reforms, and substantial investment in defense technologies to counter rising far-right influences.

Notable Quote:

Rory Stewart [56:44]: "Let's make that the opening theme of tomorrow's podcast: integrating these European and defense challenges into the broader context of US foreign policy and Nordics alliances."

Key Takeaways

1. Rise of Far-Right in Germany: The AfD's significant electoral gains highlight the growing appeal of far-right ideologies, particularly in Eastern Germany.

2. Coalition Challenges: Forming a stable government requires balancing stringent immigration policies with moderate social democratic stances, amidst declining support for traditional parties.

3. Transatlantic Strains: Shifts in US foreign policy under Trump create uncertainties for European defense strategies and global alliances.

4. Defense Spending Imperative: Increased investment in defense is crucial for Europe to attain strategic autonomy and counter emerging geopolitical threats.

5. Macron's Diplomatic Efforts: French leadership plays a pivotal role in negotiating with the US for security guarantees amidst changing international dynamics.

6. Long-Term European Strategy: Europe must prioritize developing its military infrastructure and innovative defense technologies to reduce dependency on the US and strengthen its global standing.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Rory Stewart [04:38]: “Die Linke performed incredibly well amongst young women, while the AfD did particularly well amongst young men.”

• Alastair Campbell [06:25]: “If they've got any sense, they will put this guy, Boris Pistorius, in charge. He is the most popular politician in Germany by quite a considerable margin.”

• Rory Stewart [10:45]: “The problem for Merz is that his immigration policy has to be both safe and effective without breaking European law.”

• Alastair Campbell [11:30]: “Merz's line of attack is powerful: 'Your votes don't count, you're illegitimate, you're all neo-Nazis,' etc., pushing back against leftist narratives.”

• Rory Stewart [32:36]: “Germany is in a very interesting position. Schulz announced a 100 billion euro package, aiming to become a major defense power, but problems reminiscent of Britain's recruitment issues have surfaced.”

• Rory Stewart [34:52]: “As America shifts from being the unquestionable ally to something even neutral towards us, everything has suddenly turned on its head.”

• Alastair Campbell [40:06]: “Macron did very effectively get the balance right between the sort of ego stroking and the substantive points about Ukrainian resilience and Russian aggression.”

• Rory Stewart [53:27]: “If Europe is serious about getting its act together, as you and I have been saying, then we're talking about sums of money and commitment that could redefine Europe's role on the global stage.”

• Rory Stewart [56:44]: “Let's make that the opening theme of tomorrow's podcast: integrating these European and defense challenges into the broader context of US foreign policy and Nordics alliances.”

Final Thoughts

Episode 375 of The Rest Is Politics offers an incisive examination of Germany's political landscape amidst rising far-right influences and shifting transatlantic alliances. Campbell and Stewart provide expert insights into the complexities of coalition-building, the imperative of robust defense spending, and the necessity for Europe to redefine its strategic autonomy in an increasingly uncertain global environment. The episode underscores the critical juncture Europe faces in balancing internal political dynamics with external geopolitical pressures, emphasizing the need for pragmatic policies and strong leadership to navigate these challenges.