Podcast Summary: The Rest Is Politics – Episode 399: Trump vs. Putin, How to Stop Farage, and Kashmir Explained

Release Date: April 29, 2025
Hosts: Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart

1. Introduction and Recent Political Developments [01:33 - 02:37]

Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart kick off the episode by expressing their enthusiasm over Mark Carney’s re-election as Prime Minister of the UK. They discuss the potential implications of Carney’s leadership on both domestic and international politics, noting the fragmentation trends observed in recent elections.

2. Kashmir Conflict Explained [02:37 - 09:46]

Historical Context and Recent Attacks

Rory Stewart prompts Alastair Campbell to elucidate the Kashmir conflict, cautioning against exaggerated historical claims. Campbell provides a concise overview:

“Kashmir, incredibly beautiful highland area on the modern India-Pakistan border... Fundamentally by 1947, at the time of partition, this was a place with a majority Muslim population, but with a ruler, a maharaja, who was a Hindu.”
(02:59)

The discussion highlights the partition of Kashmir between India and Pakistan, the subsequent insurgencies in the 1980s and 2000s, and recent violent attacks, including a heinous assault on Indian tourists.

Geopolitical Implications

Rory emphasizes the nuclear capabilities of India and Pakistan, adding China into the mix:

“It's the only three-way nuclear junction on the planet because you've got China there as well.”
(04:10)

The conversation delves into the complex relationships among India, Pakistan, and China, noting the potential for escalated conflict due to these nations' nuclear arsenals.

Economic Shifts and Water Security

Campbell discusses the rapid economic changes in Pakistan relative to India and China:

“Pakistan is now on $1,500. India is on nearly $3,000, so it's nearly twice as wealthy per capita. And China is nine times as wealthy per capita...”
(06:38)

He underscores the critical importance of water resources, referencing the 1960 Indus Water Treaty and the increasing strain due to climate change-induced glacier melt:

“India threatening to stop the flow of water into Pakistan... that's going to be even more dangerous probably than the fighting that's going on now.”
(07:18)

3. Trump vs. Putin and the Ukraine Situation [09:46 - 31:20]

Trump’s Ambiguous Stance and Diplomatic Maneuvers

The hosts examine former President Donald Trump’s unpredictable influence on US foreign policy, particularly concerning Ukraine and Russia. Rory recounts a notable meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky at the Vatican, highlighting Trump's inconsistent approach:

“He hates being a sucker, doesn't he?”
(19:07)

They debate whether Trump's personal style and fluctuating support for international allies undermine stable diplomatic relations.

Ukraine’s Military Dynamics

Alastair provides insights into Ukraine’s military resilience and Russia’s dwindling forces, referencing an upcoming interview with Sir Alex Younger:

“Russia is losing a lot of troops, struggling to make much advance. Ukraine is currently losing fewer troops per day...”
(23:09)

The discussion covers the critical factors determining Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense, including recruitment and international support.

Western Support and Potential US Withdrawal

Campbell and Stewart express concerns over diminishing US support for Ukraine:

“It's now clear that Zelenskyy is not going to get all the American kit.”
(27:43)

They explore scenarios where the US retracts military aid, emphasizing the potential consequences for Ukraine’s ability to combat Russian aggression.

Implications of Decreased US Influence

The decline in US involvement is linked to broader geopolitical shifts:

“The radar and much less US influence... very little focus on Pakistan, very little funds going to Pakistan.”
(12:35)

This reduction in US engagement heightens risks in regions like Kashmir, where Pakistan’s military leadership could escalate tensions.

North Korea’s Involvement in Ukraine

A surprising revelation is discussed regarding North Korean troops fighting for Russia:

“North Korean state media reported that he's ordered the building of a monument for soldiers who have been killed fighting for Russia in the war against Ukraine... approximately 14,000 troops there.”
(31:20)

This development underscores the global entanglements exacerbating the conflict.

4. UK Local Elections and the Rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform Party [31:20 - 43:09]

Election Predictions and Voter Apathy

Campbell and Stewart analyze the upcoming UK local elections, forecasting significant gains for Nigel Farage’s Reform Party at the expense of the traditional Conservatives and Labour:

“Reform will only get in if the turnout is very, very low... we’re talking about a time when people aren't turning out to vote.”
(35:47)

They attribute low voter turnout to widespread disenchantment and highlight the challenges major parties face in mobilizing their bases.

Fragmentation and Multi-Party Politics

The discussion highlights increasing political fragmentation in the UK:

“We're in five-party politics... labels at sort of 23%, conservatives at 21%, all the others, Greens, high teens.”
(39:16)

This fragmentation leads to volatile politics, coalition governments, and calls for electoral system reforms to better reflect voter preferences.

Challenges for Major Parties

Labour and the Conservatives are depicted as struggling to address local issues effectively. Campbell criticizes Labour for attempting to mimic Reform’s strengths without truly engaging with their weak points:

“Where I think reform are unbelievably weak is on the economy, it's on Putin, it's on Trump, it's on Brexit... Labour just aren't going for them.”
(38:18)

Similarly, the Conservatives face voter disillusionment, contributing to their anticipated poor performance.

Nigel Farage’s Strategic Communication

Farage is praised for his effective communication strategies, although Campbell points out the media’s failure to adequately challenge his policies:

“Brexit should be hung around his neck everywhere he goes. He's never asked about Brexit... that's a failure of our media, but it's also a failure of campaigning.”
(38:18)

5. Civic Democratic Renewal and Devolution [43:09 - 49:39]

Promoting Local Democracy

The hosts advocate for enhancing local governance and devolution to address constituent-specific issues more effectively:

“The answer should be more devolution... giving people local, regional leadership has to be part of this.”
(44:52)

They cite examples from Bordeaux, the United States, and Switzerland where local governance has successfully implemented impactful policies.

Engaging Communities in Infrastructure Projects

Campbell emphasizes the importance of community involvement in local projects to foster ownership and successful outcomes:

“If you involve the community from the beginning, make them feel ownership, you'd actually get the stuff built.”
(43:08)

This approach contrasts with national-level disconnection, promoting pragmatic solutions over populist rhetoric.

Addressing Key Local Concerns

Winter fuel payments and immigration are identified as pressing local issues that need urgent attention:

“Winter fuel keeps coming up as... If you go back, that was the first big thing the government did in a way.”
(46:34)

They argue that addressing these concerns through local governance can mitigate the appeal of populist parties like Reform.

Recommendations for Political Strategy

The hosts suggest that major parties need to formulate clear, positive narratives focused on local improvements rather than mimicking populist strategies:

“Have to take Farage apart and be less like Farage and give the country a positive, forward-looking narrative that we can all buy into.”
(38:18)

Campbell and Stewart conclude that revitalizing democracy through local empowerment and addressing specific community needs is essential to counteract political fragmentation and populism.

Notable Quotes

• Alastair Campbell on Pakistan’s Economic Shift:
  “Pakistan is now on $1,500. India is on nearly $3,000, so it's nearly twice as wealthy per capita. And China is nine times as wealthy per capita...”
  (06:38)

• Rory Stewart on Voter Apathy and Reform’s Potential:
  “Reform will only get in if the turnout is very, very low... we’re talking about a time when people aren't turning out to vote.”
  (35:47)

• Alastair Campbell on Devolution:
  “Where is the radical thinking about how to make democracy work?... In Cumbria, for example, I saw again and again that if you were trying to sort out how to deliver housing or a renewable energy project, if you involve the community from the beginning, made them feel ownership, you'd actually get the stuff built.”
  (43:08)

Conclusion

In this episode of The Rest Is Politics, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart provide a comprehensive analysis of the Kashmir conflict, the fluctuating dynamics between Trump and Putin affecting Ukraine, and the burgeoning political fragmentation within the UK marked by Nigel Farage’s Reform Party. They advocate for strengthening local governance and civic engagement as essential strategies to counteract populism and restore functional democracy. The discussion underscores the interconnectedness of local and international politics, emphasizing the need for informed, community-focused leadership to navigate these complex challenges.