Podcast Summary: The Rest Is Politics - Episode 405: Starmer's EU Deal: A New Era

Introduction

In Episode 405 of The Rest Is Politics, hosts Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart delve deep into the recent developments surrounding Keir Starmer's European Union (EU) deal. Released on May 19, 2025, this episode provides an incisive analysis of the post-Brexit landscape, examining the implications of the new agreement between the UK and the EU. Campbell and Stewart navigate through the complex negotiations, political reactions, and future prospects, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of this pivotal moment in British and European politics.

1. Overview of Starmer's EU Deal

The episode opens with Campbell highlighting the significance of the recent EU summit, the first major meeting post-Brexit. He notes the cautious optimism surrounding the agreement, acknowledging that while some aspects exceeded expectations, others fell short.

Alastair Campbell (03:00): "Some bits of it actually are more covered by the agreement than I was expecting. Some of it in less detail, and I think genuinely actually Nick Thomas Simmons, the minister in charge of the negotiations, and Michael Ellum, a civil servant, have done a pretty good job."

Rory Stewart expands on the historical context, tracing the Brexit journey from the 2016 referendum through the tumultuous negotiations leading to the 2020 Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA).

Rory Stewart (03:23): "The Brexit vote happened in 2016... In December 2020, a trade and cooperation agreement was signed with the European Union with the headline being zero tariffs, zero quotas."

2. Key Provisions of the Deal

The hosts break down the main components of the EU deal, emphasizing the removal of tariffs and quotas on goods, which facilitates smoother trade between the UK and the EU.

Rory Stewart (03:50): "Zero tariffs, zero quotas. So goods can go, you can sell a Cumbrian cuckoo clock into the European Union without paying tariffs or worrying about quotas."

However, they also highlight the increased bureaucratic requirements, such as stringent rules of origin to prevent circumvention of EU barriers.

Rory Stewart (04:20): "Britain has to agree to remain in lockstep with the European Union's standards on phytosanitary measures... ensuring that the EU can be confident about the quality and safety of imports."

3. Impact on the Fishing Industry

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the fishing sector, a contentious issue since Brexit. Campbell expresses skepticism about the deal's benefits for UK fishermen, pointing out that EU access to UK waters remains largely unchanged until 2038.

Alastair Campbell (05:00): "The fishermen who'd hoped to catch more fish off UK waters and exclude EU boats are disappointed because the EU continues to have almost the same access as before Brexit."

Rory concurs, noting that while the status quo is maintained, it doesn't fulfill the long-held promises of Brexit advocates like Nigel Farage.

Rory Stewart (05:30): "They believed they would gain control of UK waters, but instead, they've lost 30% of their trade since Brexit."

4. Trade Agreements and Economic Implications

The conversation shifts to broader economic impacts, comparing the EU deal with other trade agreements, particularly with India. Stewart provides a quantitative analysis, illustrating that UK exports to the EU far surpass those to India.

Rory Stewart (10:00): "Our exports to the EU are about 42% of our goods exports to India, compared to only 2% for India. In services, it's £125 billion to the EU versus £5 billion to India."

Campbell underscores the economic rationale behind prioritizing the EU, despite political criticisms.

Alastair Campbell (09:00): "Food and farm exports to the EU are worth ten times more than exports to India, justifying the focus on the EU deal despite its shortcomings in specific sectors like fishing."

5. Youth Mobility Scheme

A contentious issue within the deal is the Youth Mobility Scheme, which aims to allow young people to move between the UK and the EU for work and study. Campbell and Stewart discuss the mixed reactions, with some viewing it as a positive step towards re-establishing people-to-people links, while others criticize it as insufficient.

Alastair Campbell (05:41): "Keir Starmer kept emphasizing youth mobility experience, making it a focal point of the agreement."

Rory Stewart (26:15): "It seems the most innocent part of the deal, yet there's confusion and opposition, possibly influenced by figures like Farage."

6. Political Reactions and Media Coverage

The hosts critique the polarized media landscape and political rhetoric surrounding the deal. They argue that right-wing commentators like Nigel Farage have unfairly portrayed the agreement as a betrayal of Brexit ideals, despite evidence to the contrary.

Alastair Campbell (07:00): "Nigel Farage claims this spells the end of the UK fishing industry, but industry voices like Mike Cohen from UK Fisheries disagree, stating it merely extends the current arrangement."

The discussion highlights a disconnect between public opinion and media narratives, with only 30% of people in a recent YouGov poll believing that leaving the EU was the right decision.

Rory Stewart (11:20): "Only 30% now think it was the right move to leave the EU, yet the media continues to amplify the voices of a dissatisfied minority."

7. Defense and Security Considerations

Campbell and Stewart express disappointment over the deal's lack of substantial progress in defense and security cooperation. They expected more concrete measures to strengthen the UK's role in European defense initiatives, especially in light of global shifts such as the rise of Trump and the Ukraine conflict.

Rory Stewart (16:35): "There was an opportunity to set a bigger vision encompassing defense, AI, climate, and free trade, but the deal remains a series of minor adjustments."

Alastair Campbell (18:44): "The deal touched on defense funding with the EU's €150 billion fund, but expected more robust commitments and strategic planning."

8. Future Outlook and Conclusion

In wrapping up, Campbell and Stewart reflect on the deal's long-term implications, acknowledging it as a pragmatic step forward while recognizing the ongoing challenges and need for continuous negotiation.

Rory Stewart (20:45): "Brexit isn't a one-time event but a continuous process requiring yearly adjustments and strategic vision."

Alastair Campbell (22:49): "It's a good first start for Starmer's government, but the right-wing media remains poised to criticize future developments."

The episode concludes with a call for constructive political discourse and strategic foresight to navigate the evolving UK-EU relationship effectively.

Notable Quotes

• Alastair Campbell (03:00): "Some bits of it actually are more covered by the agreement than I was expecting."
• Rory Stewart (05:30): "They believed they would gain control of UK waters, but instead, they've lost 30% of their trade since Brexit."
• Rory Stewart (10:00): "Our exports to the EU are about 42% of our goods exports to India, compared to only 2% for India."

Conclusion

Episode 405 of The Rest Is Politics offers a thorough examination of Keir Starmer's EU deal, balancing optimism with critical analysis. Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart provide listeners with a nuanced perspective on the agreement's economic benefits, political ramifications, and areas needing improvement. Their insightful dialogue underscores the complexity of post-Brexit negotiations and the enduring impact on the UK's relationship with the EU.