The Rest Is Politics – Episode 412: "Is Trump Starting a Civil War? | LA Protests"

Release Date: June 10, 2025

Hosts: Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart

Introduction

In episode 412 of The Rest Is Politics, hosts Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart delve deep into the escalating tensions surrounding former President Donald Trump and entrepreneur Elon Musk, set against the backdrop of the Los Angeles (LA) protests. This episode explores whether Trump's actions and rhetoric are inching the United States towards a potential civil war, examining the interplay between political narratives, media portrayal, and economic ramifications.

The Trump-Musk Clash and Its Political Implications

Timestamp: 01:33

Alastair Campbell opens the discussion by highlighting the increasing demands from listeners for an urgent podcast focusing on the Trump-Musk feud. Despite initial hesitations, he acknowledges the significance of their conflict: "sometimes we've pressed the emergency podcast button on Trump too soon. It's about if it's signal and it really matters, go for it. If it's noise. Now, I think Trump and Musk is a bit of both" (02:15).

Rory Stewart emphasizes the depth of the conflict, noting, "this really does justify really proper podcast focus" (02:42), as it symbolizes the larger struggle between federal authority and state governance, particularly in liberal strongholds like California.

Los Angeles Protests: A Battleground for Narratives

Timestamp: 03:35

The hosts pivot to the current unrest in Los Angeles, analyzing the protests through the lens of creeping authoritarianism. Rory Stewart outlines the trifecta that Trump has been waiting for: a major political rival in Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democratic-dominated state, and a focal issue on immigration depicted as a "foreign invasion."

Alastair Campbell refers to the "14 early warning signs of fascism" by the US Holocaust Museum, asserting that elements like "powerful and continuing nationalism" and "control of mass media" are evident in Trump's strategies (05:20). He warns that Trump's rhetoric is dangerously echoing the events of January 6th, where peaceful protests turned violent under his incitement.

Rory Stewart draws parallels between the current LA unrest and the violent days of the past, highlighting the stark difference in media portrayal: "we're back in the really extreme days of the California rioting of the early 90s or the 80s" versus the progressive narrative of isolated incidents (07:04).

State vs. Federal Authority: The National Guard Dilemma

Timestamp: 09:09

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to the role of the National Guard in the ongoing protests. Rory explains the sheer scale of the National Guard, "435,000 of them. More than the Navy, more than the Air Force, more than the Marines" (14:24). He questions whether the Guard will follow presidential orders or state directives, especially when Ron Hegseth signals readiness to deploy Marines against California.

Alastair Campbell underscores the constitutional challenges, stating, "the reasons within the law, the reason why Gavin Newsom is taking this to law is because there are limited reasons under which circumstances, under which a president has the right" (15:10). He cautions against the misuse of military force, emphasizing that the current unrest does not constitute a rebellion in the legal sense.

The Battle of Narratives: Trump vs. Progressives

Timestamp: 11:30

The conversation shifts to the power of narrative in politics. Rory Stewart references Jonathan Haidt's insights on political polarization, noting that "the right are better at understanding the left and the left aren't understanding the right, but a right now A nationalist MAGA fueled right that literally will believe anything that he says to them, anything" (12:39). This creates a divided reality where each side perceives events through entirely different lenses.

Alastair Campbell highlights the effectiveness of Trump's storytelling, comparing it to Newt Gingrich's "brilliant politics," where simplicity and clarity in dividing "law-abiding Americans" from "illegals and law-breaking" strengthen his base (10:08). He warns that while this narrative empowers Trump's supporters, it also carries the risk of significant backlash and further division.

Economic Ramifications: Elon Musk and Tariff Policies

Timestamp: 24:59

Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell explore the economic tensions between Trump and Elon Musk. Rory details the rapid deterioration of their relationship following Trump's criticism of Musk's tariff policies: "now we're seeing Musk supporting Trump on all the stuff he's doing in California" (28:12). Campbell adds that Musk's significant government ties—"his companies have received 38 billion from the government over the last 20 years"—make the feud not just personal but economically impactful.

They discuss how Musk's business interests, particularly his reliance on tariffs and international manufacturing (e.g., Tesla's large factory in China), conflict with Trump's protectionist policies. Alastair Campbell notes Musk's substantial financial losses due to Trump's actions, "Trump did some of his stuff that hits his share price... Bloomberg reckoned, I think he had the biggest, second biggest single share loss in one day, 14%" (28:57).

Psychological and Social Dynamics: Polarization and Authoritarian Risks

Timestamp: 30:15

Jonathan Haidt's interview is referenced to discuss the deepening polarization and the risks of authoritarianism. Alastair Campbell cites Haidt's concern that "America could become an authoritarian state" fueled by Trump's base's unwavering loyalty. Rory Stewart echoes these fears, contemplating scenarios where either the nation becomes an authoritarian regime or faces vehement resistance leading to internal conflict.

Future Scenarios: Civil War and Midterm Elections

Timestamp: 37:03

The hosts speculate on potential future developments, including the impact of midterm elections on Trump's power base. Campbell suggests that Trump's waning popularity might trigger him to create crises deliberately: "the drama becomes the state of emergency. So you create" (22:25). Rory Stewart discusses the possibility of Trump manipulating narratives to maintain control, comparing his strategies to those of a reality TV show where the hero continually overcomes staged obstacles to bolster his image (20:05).

UK Political Economy and Spending Review

Timestamp: 37:48

Shifting focus to the UK, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart examine the ongoing spending review, highlighting significant government allocations towards nuclear energy, health, and defense. They critique Labour's Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, for lacking a cohesive growth narrative: "we don't know what the story is" (43:27). Rory advocates for clear storytelling to drive economic growth, drawing parallels to Margaret Thatcher's and Tony Blair's effective narratives during their tenures.

Conclusion

The episode concludes with a call to young listeners to participate in political idea competitions and a brief mention of upcoming topics. Campbell and Stewart reinforce the importance of strong leadership and coherent narratives in navigating both American and British political landscapes amid rising tensions and economic challenges.

Notable Quotes

1. Alastair Campbell: "this is a really, really, really dangerous moment, and how the public reacts is going to be an important part of it" (08:26).
2. Rory Stewart: "you have a sense of what the midterms aren't looking that good. So the drama becomes the state of emergency" (22:25).
3. Alastair Campbell: "Trump, despite all the adulation that he forces around himself, knows that his popularity is waning and therefore really worries about the midterms" (05:20).
4. Rory Stewart: "this right now A nationalist MAGA fueled right that literally will believe anything that he says to them, anything" (12:39).
5. Alastair Campbell: "The Rest is Politics has been bombarding me with demands for an emergency podcast on Trump Musk" (02:15).

Key Takeaways

• Escalating Tensions: The feud between Trump and Musk is emblematic of deeper political and economic rifts, with significant implications for national stability.

• Narrative Power: Effective political storytelling, as demonstrated by Trump, can profoundly influence public perception and bolster support bases.

• Polarization Risks: Increasing societal divisions, exacerbated by media portrayal and political rhetoric, heighten the risk of authoritarianism or internal conflict.

• Economic Fallout: Political decisions, especially protectionist policies, have tangible impacts on business leaders and the broader economy, potentially destabilizing key industries.

• UK Context: Similar challenges in the UK underscore the necessity for clear economic narratives and strategic planning to address stagnant growth and international competitiveness.

For more insightful discussions on British and global politics, subscribe to The Rest Is Politics on Apple Podcasts or visit therestispolitics.com.