The Rest Is Politics – Episode 414: Israel vs. Iran: What Happens Next

Release Date: June 13, 2025

In Episode 414 of The Rest Is Politics, hosts Alastair Campbell and Gordon Carrera delve into the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran following a series of strategic military strikes initiated by Israel. This detailed analysis explores the motivations behind Israel's actions, the intricate web of international relations, especially concerning the United States, and the potential long-term ramifications for global politics and nuclear non-proliferation.

1. Contextualizing the Israeli Strikes ([01:42] - [03:34])

The episode opens with Alastair Campbell addressing the recent Israeli military actions against Iran. Israel has conducted targeted strikes aimed at disrupting Iran's nuclear ambitions by hitting key nuclear facilities and senior members of the Iranian regime.

Alastair Campbell ([00:49] - [01:42]): "Welcome to an emergency podcast... Israel vs. Iran merits US scrambling. And I must apologize Rory... Recorded going out pretty much as soon as we've recorded it rather than live."

Gordon Carrera provides a concise explainer on the nature of the strikes:

Gordon Carrera ([03:00]): "Israel launched a series of strikes on two different types of target... they hit the Natan sites, but not the Fordo sites... They took out the head of the entire armed forces... a series of nuclear scientists."

2. Netanyahu's Motivation and Strategic Calculations ([03:34] - [13:03])

Campbell scrutinizes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's long-standing ambition to neutralize Iran's nuclear capabilities, suggesting that for two decades, he has contemplated military action against Iran's nuclear program.

Alastair Campbell ([03:36]): "I reckon for around two decades, Bibi Netanyahu has been thinking about this military action... What have you made of it so far?"

Carrera discusses the immediate and potential consequences of the strikes, emphasizing the precarious balance Israel maintains with Iran and the broader implications for regional stability.

3. The Role of the United States and Trump's Influence ([13:46] - [20:18])

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the United States' stance, particularly under former President Donald Trump. Campbell questions the mixed signals emanating from the U.S. administration regarding Israel's actions.

Alastair Campbell ([05:56]): "Now, what's fascinating is the extent to which America is or is not involved... how he operates... part of the chaos that we've come to associate with the American administration under Trump."

Carrera elaborates on Trump's potential lack of control over the situation, suggesting that Netanyahu may perceive a diminished U.S. influence, emboldening unilateral actions.

Gordon Carrera ([16:34]): "Netanyahu must know perfectly well that whatever he does... Trump won't follow through with sanctioning Israel."

4. International Law and Legitimacy ([20:18] - [32:22])

The hosts delve into the legality of Israel's strikes under international law, debating whether these actions constitute preemptive strikes and their implications for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Gordon Carrera ([20:21]): "But there's a much bigger question, which is this was in the middle of a peace negotiation and the action that Israel has taken is... very, very questionable under international law."

Campbell highlights the erosion of trust in international agreements, referencing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and the potential for Iran to accelerate its nuclear program in response.

Alastair Campbell ([13:03]): "What on earth is the US doing in all of this?... the next few weeks this is likely to come to a head and it's either going to be a deal or it's going to be Israel taking action against Iran."

5. Iran's Potential Responses and Internal Dynamics ([32:22] - [43:14])

Carrera examines Iran's strategic position post-strikes, discussing the weakened state of its military leadership and the possible acceleration of its nuclear program as a deterrent.

Gordon Carrera ([33:40]): "There are two key ways for the Iranians... they've lost a lot of their most senior people... Iran will be able to push."

Campbell reflects on the historical context of nuclear proliferation, drawing parallels with past regimes like Libya and North Korea, and the unique challenges posed by Iran's internal and external pressures.

Alastair Campbell ([21:47]): "There's also something really interesting there about the history of nuclear proliferation... Israel may have succeeded in setting the Iranian nuclear program back in the short term, perhaps a year or two, only to ensure the threat of a nuclear armed Iran not long thereafter."

6. The Impact on Global Politics and Oil Markets ([42:04] - [53:59])

The discussion transitions to the broader implications for global politics, including the destabilization of the international order and the potential surge in oil prices due to regional conflicts.

Alastair Campbell ([51:56]): "There's also something really interesting there about the history of nuclear proliferation... impact that has already been on the oil price... a genuinely scary moment for the world."

Carrera emphasizes the fragility of the current global political landscape, citing examples like the potential collapse of U.S. leadership and the shifting alliances that exacerbate international tensions.

Gordon Carrera ([45:09]): "How on earth is America supposed to control the world?... it's going to get more and more dangerous more and more quickly."

7. Narratives, Public Perception, and Future Outlook ([53:59] - [55:10])

The hosts analyze the battle of narratives between Israel and Iran, highlighting the challenges each faces in garnering international support and legitimizing their respective actions.

Gordon Carrera ([29:22]): "In this war of narratives, I can't really see either side coming cleanly out, winning over public opinion."

Campbell discusses Netanyahu's focus on Israeli public and political opinion, juxtaposed with Iran's portrayal of itself as a victim, complicating global perceptions and undermining diplomatic efforts.

Alastair Campbell ([32:22]): "I don't know inside the guy's head... he is a man on a mission... giving them a second chance by now suggesting that actually he's been part of this all along."

8. Listener Questions and Final Thoughts ([36:12] - [55:20])

The episode concludes with Alastair and Gordon addressing listener-submitted questions, probing deeper into Netanyahu's possible motivations—whether driven by political opportunism or genuine security concerns.

Listener Question ([36:12]): "To what extent do you believe the timing of these events were driven by military opportunity and necessity versus an attempt to shape the political narrative and intention?"

Campbell and Carrera offer nuanced perspectives, suggesting that Netanyahu's actions may be a blend of both safeguarding national security and consolidating political power amidst weakening international support.

9. Concluding Remarks ([55:20] - [57:26])

In the final segments, the hosts reflect on the unpredictable nature of global politics, the erosion of American influence, and the unsettling vision of a world without a unifying international authority.

Alastair Campbell ([57:26]): "So, if you want to hear that... goal hanger.com see you there."

Key Takeaways:

• Strategic Strikes: Israel's recent military actions against Iran target nuclear facilities and high-ranking officials, aiming to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions.

• Netanyahu's Calculations: The Israeli Prime Minister operates under the belief of imminent existential threats from Iran, leveraging military action to maintain political strength amidst international skepticism.

• U.S. Ambiguity: The United States exhibits mixed signals regarding its stance on Israel's actions, with former President Trump's influence appearing limited amidst internal and external geopolitical challenges.

• Iran's Dilemma: Faced with diminished proxy strength and internal instability, Iran may accelerate its nuclear program as a deterrent, potentially leading to further regional destabilization.

• International Law and Legitimacy: The legality of Israel's strikes remains contentious, challenging existing frameworks of international law and nuclear non-proliferation agreements.

• Global Implications: The conflict could trigger significant economic repercussions, particularly in oil markets, and signal a shift towards a more fragmented and unstable global order.

• Narrative Warfare: Both Israel and Iran struggle to shape global narratives in their favor, hindered by their respective internal and external challenges.

• Future Outlook: The episode underscores an unpredictable trajectory for Middle Eastern politics, with potential escalations in nuclear proliferation and international conflicts.

Notable Quotes:

• Alastair Campbell ([03:00]): "This was a very, very effective attack... Iran has been hit back over to you."

• Gordon Carrera ([05:56]): "What do you make about the balance between political opportunism and military necessity?"

• Alastair Campbell ([13:03]): "What on earth is the US doing in all of this?... this is a very, very dangerous place."

• Gordon Carrera ([20:21]): "This was in the middle of a peace negotiation and the action that Israel has taken is, to put it mildly, very, very questionable under international law."

• Alastair Campbell ([21:47]): "Israel may have succeeded in setting the Iranian nuclear program back in the short term, perhaps a year or two, only to ensure the threat of a nuclear armed Iran not long thereafter."

Conclusion

Episode 414 of The Rest Is Politics provides a comprehensive and incisive analysis of the volatile situation between Israel and Iran, unraveling the complex interplay of military strategy, political maneuvering, and international diplomacy. Campbell and Carrera effectively highlight the precarious balance of power, the faltering role of the United States, and the ominous future of nuclear proliferation in an increasingly fragmented global landscape.

For listeners seeking an in-depth understanding of current geopolitical tensions and their far-reaching consequences, this episode serves as an essential resource.