The Rest Is Politics – Episode 415: Iran, Israel, and Trump: War in the Middle East

Release Date: June 17, 2025
Hosts: Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart
Description: Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart delve into the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, analyze international responses, examine the role of former President Donald Trump, and explore the devastating report on grooming gangs in the UK.

1. Escalation of the Iran-Israel Conflict

The episode opens with Rory Stewart highlighting the gravity of the Iran-Israel conflict, emphasizing its global repercussions. Alastair Campbell provides an update on the latest developments:

• Initial Strikes by Israel: Israel initiated attacks targeting Iran's major enrichment facility at Natanz (02:40), aiming to cripple Iran's nuclear capabilities. These strikes also eliminated key figures in Iran's military and scientific sectors.

• Iran's Response: In retaliation, Iran launched attacks on Israeli infrastructure, resulting in significant casualties—224 killed and 1,400 injured in Iran, compared to 24 killed and 600 injured in Israel (04:10).

• Current Situation: Despite threats, Iran has refrained from expanding the conflict to involve the U.S. or other Gulf states, aiming to position their actions strictly as self-defense against Israeli aggression (05:45).

Notable Quote:
Rory Stewart observes, “If you want to see an absolute masterclass in communication in a time of crisis and conflict, you have to hand it to him [Netanyahu].” (03:48)

2. Netanyahu's Strategic Communication

Rory Stewart analyzes Benjamin Netanyahu's recent interview with ABC News, praising his effective communication strategy:

• Target Audiences: Netanyahu skillfully addresses multiple audiences, including Trump, the Israeli public, and the Iranian leadership, projecting strength and unwavering resolve (06:45).

• Framing the Conflict: He portrays the situation as a battle of good versus evil, without addressing contentious issues like Gaza or international legal perspectives (08:02).

Notable Quote:
Rory Stewart notes, “He was very flattering. He kept talking about Trump's amazing leadership in the first term and the importance of the Abraham Accords.” (06:00)

3. International Law and Preemptive Strikes

The hosts delve into the legal implications of Israel's actions under international law:

• Preemptive Strike Debate: Alastair Campbell challenges the legality of Israel's strike, comparing it to hypothetical scenarios involving other nuclear-armed states. He questions whether preemptive actions are justified solely based on perceived threats without concrete evidence of imminent attacks (08:50).

• Double Standards: Rory Stewart points out the inconsistency in international responses, noting that while Iran's potential possession of nuclear weapons is condemned, Israel's own nuclear capabilities are rarely scrutinized (17:57).

Notable Quote:
Alastair Campbell asserts, “If you allow preemption of this sort... what is to stop Hezbollah and Iran saying, we have pretty good reason to believe Israel's going to attack us?” (12:15)

4. Trump's Role and Impact on International Institutions

The discussion shifts to former President Donald Trump's recent behavior at the G7 summit:

• Undermining Alliances: Trump’s early departure from the G7, coupled with his derogatory remarks about Putin's absence, signals a deliberate erosion of international cooperation and undermines established diplomatic protocols (16:07).

• Diminishing International Law: Rory Stewart criticizes Trump's actions as contributing to the dismantling of the rules-based international order, making unilateral actions seem permissible (17:57).

Notable Quote:
Alastair Campbell comments, “If you completely give up on the idea that there's rules based international order... everything just becomes might is right.” (20:58)

5. Shifts in Arab Public Opinion

Rory Stewart highlights findings from the Arab Barometer survey, revealing a significant decline in favorability towards the U.S., Britain, and France within the Arab world:

• Public Sentiment: The survey indicates that 84% of Kuwaitis have boycotted companies supporting Israel, 62% have donated to Gaza, and 40% have shared pro-Palestinian messages on social media (14:15).

• Implications for Diplomacy: This shift poses challenges for Western countries in maintaining their influence and alliances in the region.

Notable Quote:
Rory Stewart states, “The favorability of United States, Britain, France is seeing a very, very, very substantial decline across the Arab world.” (14:15)

6. Domestic Perspectives and the MAGA Movement

The conversation addresses the divided stance within the American political landscape:

• MAGA Isolationism: Rory Stewart explains that while traditional Republican hawks support Israel's actions, the MAGA faction opposes involvement, viewing it as an unnecessary Middle Eastern conflict (34:30).

• Trump's Position: Despite pressure, Trump maintains a non-interventionist stance, aligning with the MAGA perspective and distancing himself from mainstream Republican hawks (35:44).

Notable Quote:
Charlie Kirk, representing the MAGA viewpoint, claims, “This will be loss of faith,” reflecting skepticism towards interventionist policies. (34:30)

7. The UK’s Grooming Gangs Scandal

Transitioning to domestic issues, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart discuss the harrowing report on grooming gangs in the UK:

• Nature of the Crimes: The report, led by Louise Casey, exposes systemic failures and the brutal reality of group-based child sexual exploitation, predominantly involving Pakistani males (42:05).

• Systemic Failures: Campbell outlines the staggering statistics—500,000 child sexual abuse cases annually in the UK, with only a fraction leading to prosecution. He highlights the justice system's inability to effectively address these crimes amidst other pressing criminal issues (47:01).

• Recommendations: The report calls for:

  • National public inquiry into grooming gangs.
  • Collection of ethnicity and nationality data for suspects.
  • Enhanced regulation of taxi drivers, who often play a role in facilitating these crimes.
  • Strict accountability measures, categorizing any penetrative sex with minors as rape regardless of circumstances.

Notable Quote:
Rory Stewart summarizes, “The cycle by which it happened often began with people approaching people in parks pretending to be their boyfriends... became drug and alcohol addiction, then violence, then coercion, then trafficking.” (45:37)

8. Societal Implications and Future Discussions

The hosts emphasize the importance of addressing these issues openly to prevent the rise of extremism and hateful rhetoric:

• Combating Stereotypes: While acknowledging the predominantly Pakistani involvement in grooming gangs, Campbell cautions against generalizing these actions to the entire community, stressing that such behaviors represent a minuscule fraction of the population (52:52).

• Upcoming Topics: They preview future discussions, including violence in Ballymena, the rise of the far right, and the murder of a Democrat politician in Minnesota, indicating a broad range of political issues to be explored in subsequent episodes (53:23).

Notable Quote:
Alastair Campbell warns, “Trying to do is very, very evil men... it's the attempt to do that by people like Tommy Robinson that's causing a lot of the hate and extremism in our society.” (52:52)

Conclusion

In this comprehensive episode, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart navigate the complex and intertwined issues of Middle Eastern geopolitics and domestic social crises in the UK. They provide in-depth analysis of the Iran-Israel conflict, scrutinize the erosion of international law and alliances under Trump's influence, and shed light on the devastating grooming gangs scandal. Through meticulous discussion and expert insights, the hosts underscore the urgent need for effective governance, adherence to international norms, and societal introspection to address and mitigate these pressing challenges.

Note: This summary covers sensitive topics, including political violence and child sexual exploitation. Listener discretion is advised.