Episode 417: The Real JD Vance: America’s Next President? (Part 1)
Released June 19, 2025 | The Rest Is Politics | Hosts: Alastair Campbell, Rory Stewart
Introduction to JD Vance and His Political Ascension
The episode opens with a provocative statement by Alastair Campbell, highlighting the contingency of Donald Trump's presidency:
"If Donald Trump dropped dead, this guy is automatically president. How he has become what he's become from this background." [00:00]
James O'Brien sets a personal and relatable tone by sharing a vivid, albeit hypothetical, scenario:
"I'm sitting in the back of this police cruiser. They've just arrested my mom. The relief of having survived another day." [00:23]
Rory Stewart introduces the central theme of the episode:
"This is a story about something which we don't often talk about in America, which is class." [00:28]
JD Vance’s Background and Personal Struggles
The discussion delves into JD Vance's tumultuous upbringing in a struggling southern Ohio steel town. O'Brien reflects on his own background to draw parallels:
"I came from a southern Ohio steel town and it's a town that's really struggling in a lot of ways. Trump, I think that he's leading the white working class to a very dark place. I'm a never Trump guy. I never liked him." [00:32]
Rory Stewart analyzes Vance's decision-making framework:
"But in the end, the main thing you need to understand about J.D. is given the choice between his intellectual statements and power. He chooses power every time." [00:44]
O'Brien admits a shift in his stance:
"I was wrong about Donald Trump." [00:56]
Vance’s Personality and Political Maneuvering
Alastair Campbell probes Vance's evolution, referencing controversial past comments:
"Senator, this is an evolution. Past comments that you've made. You've said idiot, might be America's Hitler." [00:58]
Rory Stewart critiques Vance’s shifting personality traits:
"This is where this other side of his personality comes through. He's reverting to blame anger." [01:05]
O'Brien voices concerns about Vance's rhetoric and alliances:
"I think the election was stolen from Trump. We're effectively run in this country by a bunch of childless cat ladies." [01:17]
Stewart emphasizes Vance’s need for loyalty:
"He needs to prove absolute loyalty." [01:22]
The Complex Relationship Between JD Vance and Trump
Campbell and Stewart explore Vance’s alignment with Trumpian politics, suggesting a blending of authoritarian and monarchic tendencies:
"He believes that America should be led by a monarch, which of course Trump believes as well. He sees him frankly as a future king because he says Vance can tell the story of America." [01:56]
"And in doing so, he crosses the cusp into a whole new vision of the world at the center of which is not democracy, but the CEO, the authoritarian, the monarch." [02:05]
Exploring Vance’s Memoir and Personal History
The hosts introduce their exclusive miniseries on JD Vance available to members:
"We really enjoyed recording the series. It charts JD Vance's very humble beginnings in the Appalachians, tracks his career and his influences all the way up to his role as vice president..." [03:04]
Rory Stewart praises Vance's intellectual capabilities despite his controversial stances:
"Vance is many things, many, many things for which we will be profoundly critical. But he's also smart. I mean, he's a very clever person and he writes very elegantly." [03:30]
Family Dysfunction and Its Impact on Vance’s Perspective
Alastair Campbell delves into Vance's challenging family dynamics, highlighting frequent name changes and instability:
"He starts off with one name, James Donald. The Bowman name then goes... becomes John David Hamill because she didn't want Donald." [05:35]
Stewart critiques the portrayal of poverty and dysfunction in Vance’s memoir:
"Some American commentators reading this says this basically portrays a world of every conservative prejudice about people living on welfare, single parent families..." [06:48]
Campbell provides insights into the severity of Vance’s upbringing:
"What comes over the book is a level of dysfunction and violence... But you have to hand it to him, how he has become what he's become coming from this background." [09:10]
Notable Quote:
"He went into this complete stranger's house, sort of screaming, help me, help me. My mum's trying to kill me." [11:09]
Socioeconomic Challenges and the Opioid Crisis
Rory Stewart draws parallels between Vance's experiences and broader American socioeconomic issues:
"There's a very interesting... combination of unemployment, opioid crisis and hopelessness." [14:25]
Campbell discusses the impact of globalization on Appalachia:
"Factory shutting down, factories moving in, then shutting down, jobs going to China. It became very, very, very difficult for working class people to find work." [14:50]
Stewart connects the opioid crisis to political discourse and policy differences between the US and UK:
"This is maybe the most dramatic example... Deaths of Despair... It doesn't happen in Britain." [14:25]
Notable Quote:
"He's writing about it just, he just takes it for granted that everybody's pretty much at it." [15:05]
Vance’s Views on Addiction and Personal Responsibility
Campbell explores Vance’s perception of addiction, suggesting a leaning towards personal responsibility:
"He obviously had to live with it, but my sense is that he finds it... a little bit of pull yourself together." [16:02]
Conclusion and Teasers for Upcoming Content
The episode concludes with teasers about the upcoming miniseries focused on JD Vance, encouraging listeners to subscribe for exclusive content:
"We are doing finally our first ever miniseries for members of the Rest is Politics plus and it's all about da da JD Vance." [02:30]
"If you'd like to hear the first episode right now, just head to theresters politics.com to join." [02:44]
Key Takeaways
- JD Vance’s Complex Background: Vance's upbringing in a dysfunctional family in Appalachia profoundly shapes his political views and rhetoric.
- Political Alignment with Trump: Vance aligns closely with Trumpian politics, emphasizing power over intellectual discourse and exhibiting authoritarian tendencies.
- Socioeconomic Commentary: The episode highlights the impact of globalization, lack of effective welfare systems, and the opioid crisis on the American working class.
- Critique of Liberal and Conservative Views: Vance critiques both conservative and liberal perspectives on class and poverty, advocating for a nuanced understanding of socioeconomic challenges.
- Exclusive Content Available: Listeners are encouraged to join The Rest Is Politics Plus for an in-depth miniseries on JD Vance.
Notable Quotes
- "If Donald Trump dropped dead, this guy is automatically president." — Alastair Campbell [00:00]
- "He's reverting to blame anger." — Rory Stewart [01:05]
- "He needs to prove absolute loyalty." — Rory Stewart [01:22]
- "He just takes it for granted that everybody's pretty much at it." — Alastair Campbell [15:05]
- "He just takes it for granted that everybody's pretty much at it." — Alastair Campbell [15:05]
This episode provides a deep dive into JD Vance's personal history and political rise, setting the stage for a critical examination of his potential impact on American politics. Through candid discussions and expert analysis, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart offer listeners a comprehensive understanding of Vance's motivations, challenges, and the broader implications of his political trajectory.