The Rest Is Politics – Episode 428: Rory vs. Alastair – Are We Spending Too Much on Defence?

Release Date: July 15, 2025

In Episode 428 of The Rest Is Politics, hosts Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart engage in a robust discussion on the United Kingdom's defence spending. This episode delves into the complexities of maintaining national security amidst evolving global threats, the economic implications of increased defence budgets, and the unpredictable influence of former President Donald Trump on international defence and trade policies.

1. Rory Stewart's Evolving Perspective on Defence Spending [02:31]

Rory Stewart begins the conversation by reflecting on his changing views regarding defence expenditure. He expresses frustration with the unpredictability of President Trump’s actions and rhetoric concerning defence funding. Stewart muses, “predicting what President Trump will do… is an absolute mugs game” (02:31), highlighting the instability that such unpredictability introduces into defence planning.

2. Historical Context of UK Defence Spending [02:31 - 05:38]

Alastair Campbell provides a historical overview of the UK's defence spending, referencing his tenure as Chair of the Defence Select Committee. He notes, “During the Cold War... we were spending about 4% of GDP on defense” (04:50). Campbell emphasizes the significant reduction from the post-World War II era and the resulting economic implications, such as the emancipation of approximately $4 trillion for welfare and other investments.

3. Current Threats to Europe: Russia, Populism, and Far-Right Movements [05:38 - 08:28]

The discussion shifts to contemporary threats facing Europe. Campbell references Patrick Sanders, the former Chief of the General Staff, who anticipates potential conflicts with Russia within the next few years. Stewart expands the conversation to include the rise of populism and radical far-right parties, suggesting that these movements could become additional sources of instability. Stewart posits, “The biggest threat that we're facing in Europe at the moment? Potentially Putin, but potentially also populism” (08:13).

4. Economic Implications of Increased Defence Spending [08:28 - 11:31]

The hosts debate the economic efficiency of defence spending. Stewart argues that investment in education, health, and infrastructure offers a higher return on investment compared to defence expenditures. He states, “Historically doesn't have a great return on investment just as an economic move” (09:20). Campbell counters by presenting alternative viewpoints, noting that some experts claim a higher economic return from defence spending, though Stewart remains skeptical about these figures.

5. Modern Warfare and Technological Innovations [11:31 - 15:20]

Campbell and Stewart explore the transformation of warfare due to advancements in drone and AI technology. Campbell mentions, “The Ukrainian use of drone and AI technology… is revolutionizing modern warfare” (11:31). He underscores the necessity for defence spending to adapt to these technological changes, advocating for investments that align with the evolving nature of threats.

6. Challenges in US Defence Procurement [15:20 - 19:14]

Stewart criticizes the inefficiencies within the US defence procurement system, highlighting issues such as cost overruns and outdated technology by the time equipment is delivered. He laments, “We're very, very bad at defence procurement” (17:59). This critique extends to the broader Western defence strategies, suggesting a need for more coordinated and technologically forward spending.

7. Trump’s Influence on Defence and Trade Policies [19:14 - 22:50]

The conversation pivots to President Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies and their impact on global trade. Stewart describes Trump's tariff strategy as "reality TV" (22:50), emphasizing the resulting instability in international markets. Campbell recounts Trump’s inconsistent tariff announcements, noting, “He put them up to 30%, 35%… shattering” (20:19).

8. International Reactions to Trump’s Tariffs [22:50 - 29:49]

Campbell and Stewart analyze the global response to Trump's tariffs, comparing them to hypothetical actions by China. They discuss the diplomatic fallout and the perception of Trump as a disruptive force in international relations. Stewart warns that businesses operate under "the most unpredictable global trade environment that's existed for almost 100 years" (22:50).

9. The Nobel Peace Prize Controversy [29:49 - 34:12]

The hosts critique the notion of awarding Donald Trump the Nobel Peace Prize, arguing that his policies have exacerbated global conflicts rather than fostering peace. Campbell asserts, “We are fundamentally united in our view that the Nobel Prize Committee's reputation would be zero if it were to make the mistake of giving the award to Donald Trump” (34:12). Stewart echoes this sentiment, highlighting Trump's role in undermining the international order.

10. Labour Politics and Public Sector Reforms [39:22 - 60:12]

Transitioning from defence, Campbell and Stewart discuss internal Labour Party dynamics, focusing on recent tensions between Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Unite, the UK's largest union. Campbell notes, “UNITE and the leadership, Sharon Graham, making broader complaints about the direction of the Labour Party” (43:06). The conversation delves into the implications of these disputes for public sector reforms, particularly within the National Health Service (NHS).

11. Resident Doctors' Strikes and NHS Funding [44:35 - 60:12]

A significant portion of the episode addresses the ongoing standoff between junior doctors and the Health Secretary, Wes Streeting. Campbell underscores the critical nature of healthcare funding, while Stewart debates the balance between investing in public health versus hospital care. Stewart challenges the communication strategies around healthcare reforms, questioning how to justify cuts in hospital funding when they result in immediate personal losses despite long-term public health benefits.

Alastair Campbell: “We have to make political judgments... whether we take this threat seriously” (16:52)
Rory Stewart: “The world will become more dangerous, thanks to Donald Trump” (34:12)
Rory Stewart: “Nobody's been able to give it. We'll close with that. But you understand this stuff and I don't” (63:37)

Key Takeaways and Conclusions

• Unpredictability in Defence and Trade Policies: The duo highlight the challenges posed by fluctuating defence budgets and erratic trade policies, particularly under Trump’s influence, which complicate long-term planning and economic stability.

• Economic Efficiency vs. National Security: A central debate revolves around the economic returns of defence spending versus investments in public services like education and health. Stewart advocates for prioritizing sectors that offer higher economic benefits and societal well-being.

• Modern Warfare Adaptation: Emphasizing technological advancements, Campbell and Stewart argue for defence spending that aligns with the changing landscape of warfare, including AI and drone technology.

• Internal Labour Party Dynamics: The episode sheds light on the internal conflicts within the Labour Party, especially the strained relationship between party leaders and unions, which could impact future public sector reforms and Labour’s political standing.

• Healthcare Funding Dilemma: The discussion on NHS funding underscores the difficulty in balancing immediate healthcare needs with long-term public health initiatives, advocating for strategic communication to garner public support for necessary reforms.

Notable Quotes

• Rory Stewart on Trump's Influence:

  “The world will become more dangerous, thanks to Donald Trump” (34:12)

• Alastair Campbell on Political Judgments:

  “We have to make political judgments... whether we take this threat seriously” (16:52)

• Rory Stewart on Defence Spending Return:

  “historically doesn't have a great return on investment just as an economic move” (09:20)

This episode of The Rest Is Politics offers an in-depth analysis of the UK's defence spending within the broader context of international politics and economic strategy. Campbell and Stewart provide insightful perspectives on how current policies shape not only national security but also the socio-economic fabric of the country. Their nuanced debate underscores the intricate balance between maintaining robust defence mechanisms and fostering economic prosperity through strategic investments in public services.

For more intelligent and engaging discussions on British and global politics, visit therestispolitics.com and explore additional episodes at www.goalhanger.com.